Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[wm]

Stan---here goes a history lesson from 1945 until 1994 --the US Army stationed the 2nd and 3rd Calvary Regts on a rotating basis on ground/air patrols along the interGerman border---theory was if the Soviet army charged across the border they would be engaged first by the Cav and then be rolled over by the Soviets allowing then the US leadership the excuse to go nuclear.

A sort of a speed bump/trip wire used in the decision making process by the national command authority---it was assumed that the Soviets knowing that when the speed bump/trip wire had been crossed--- the threat of mutual self destruction would bring them to their senses and or slow them down as they also knew small tactical ADMs were an option to the NCA and the NCA had ADM teams in place.

That was the theory---it was assumed that in reality the Soviets coming at full speed would have not really slowed down until they hit the Rhine river and it would have taken the NCA that long to figure out if they would go nuclear or not---at the same time the NCA would have released the ADM teams to implement previously pre-planned targeting against selected Soviet/GDR targets in order to gain more time .

That was the trip wire theory.

Currently the messaging to Putin is we are serious enough to back up NATO Article 5 if you attack one of the countries we have troops stationed in we will respond-response action not explained-a type of trip wire concept for the Baltics, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Romania, and Bulgaria who are protected under NATO Article 5. It has been the Baltics and Poland demanding the trip wire as they do not believe NATO will and or could defend them and feel threatened by Russia actions towards the Ukraine and their military buildup.

That though does not apply to the Ukraine thus the verbal talk, diplomacy, and physical appearance of US leaders in Kiev tied to economic and non military support as well as possible intel exchanges and other items.

The serious side is does Putin care about the theory as he views the West and in particular the US to be weak and not in a position to respond military which by the way NATO/EU/US have all said they will not use force so actually Putin was right in his assumption---this reinforces in Putin's mind the responses he saw during Georgia and Moldavia.

What is interesting is a recent article indicating that Russia floated a month ago a plan to Poland and other former east block countries surrounding the Ukraine the division of the areas other than eastern and southern Ukraine---ie giving the Poles for example their old areas taken from them by Russia in 1939. By the way---can fish out the Russian Duma official that first floated (at the same time as Crimea was ongoing) that concept if needed as many in the West thought it was a crazy idea---maybe not so crazy if Poland is confirming it now.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/...e-ukraine.html

That is how the speed bump/trip wire concept as it is tied to the thread and that is the messaging being sent with a single rotating BN---or do you disagree?

Does that explain it closely enough. Google might have it in more detail.

Not bad memory recall for someone with four wars (VN, Desert Strom, Iraq, AFG) worth of experience and a deep SF UW background in Europe and having not been physically on the interGerman border since 1986.

History is a little flawed--trip wire went by the board well before 1994and started in the 50s. Your cav regiment IDs are also only half right--but that is not really important. In fact for much of the 70s and 80s, trip wire was not used as you describe. USAREUR/EUCOM believed they could win a conventional war and the cav regiments were to play a significant part in the active defense, being far from just a speed bump or trip wire. But that is not really germane to the current deployments of the 173rd Airborne units out of Italy.

Having elements of a Bn of the 173rd in the Baltic countries and Poland do not make the Article 5 violation any more urgent. A Russian invasion of any of the 4 countries could trigger a NATO response regardless of the presence of 150 US paratroopers. I would submit that the 173rd is getting to travel for another reason-- probably political and possibly tied to the US defense budget and Army impending downsizing--not the Ukraine.

[OUTLAW 09]

History is a little flawed--trip wire went by the board well before 1994and started in the 50s. Your cav regiment IDs are also only half right--but that is not really important. In fact for much of the 70s and 80s, trip wire was not used as you describe. USAREUR/EUCOM believed they could win a conventional war and the cav regiments were to play a significant part in the active defense, being far from just a speed bump or trip wire. But that is not really germane to the current deployments of the 173rd Airborne units out of Italy.

Having elements of a Bn of the 173rd in the Baltic countries and Poland do not make the Article 5 violation any more urgent. A Russian invasion of any of the 4 countries could trigger a NATO response regardless of the presence of 150 US paratroopers. I would submit that the 173rd is getting to travel for another reason-- probably political and possibly tied to the US defense budget and Army impending downsizing--not the Ukraine.

The correct unit designations were the 2nd and 3rd ACRs and I am not sure even up to 1989 neither USAREUR/EUCOM but mainly USAREUR felt they could not win in a direct confrontation from the get go---if that were the case then a number of USA SF teams carrying ADMs destined to create choke points and to deny freedom of movement and slow resupply would not have been needed.

It was felt that the 2 ACRs would never be enough to slow, stop and or defeat the initial charges of the Soviet Army Ground Forces Germany.

USAREUR moved additional armored assets to Garlstedt Lower Saxony in 85/86 timeframes in order to give an additional slow down effect and to get them out of the so called drug infested large German cities which did not in the end work but it was a great completely new base.

That was just the Army issues---the AF side was even more complicated as the Soviet AD rings built using the SAM 6/8s would have based on loss calculations decimated USAF assets that were forward based.

Everything at that point in 1986 was designed to slow down and provide time for follow on forces out of the States to reach Europe.

Not sure where you get your information but the US needed time to get the large Reforger designated units into Europe as flow on follow on units---thus the need to create time in a holding formation. Remember the Reforger concept and you failed to mention that and the US had starting in 1968 moving a large number of it's units back to the States and kept pre-positioned equipment for the Reforger units to fall in on which they then turned back into the depots when completing the Reforger exercises---so where is this idea USAREUR felt they could win from the get go.

If you talked with those from the 2/3ACRs they never envisioned living long enough to see the 1st CAV make it into Europe from Ft.Hood which was one of the USAREUR designated heavy armored divisions. Remember in 1989 it was the Apaches that played hide and seek with opposition tanks and those Apaches came from the US.

Not sure where you were in 1986 but the Warsaw Pact conducted one of the largest exercises up to that point which had USAREUR stunned at what was pulled up to by the Soviet Ground Forces Germany within 30kms of the inner German border (and in Lower Saxony up to within 3kms) and what was then pulled into their secondary lines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.

The last Reforger exercise was in 1989 and the Soviets also pulled up an equally large number of their Soviet Ground Forces Germany units and matched unit for unit near the innerGerman border.

There was some new thinking for that exercise that the old Fulda Gap scenario might have been in fact wrong when the Soviet Ground Forces suddenly shifted their armored assets more northerly and focused on the Lower Saxony border area (UK protected zone) which reflected their interest in cutting all follow on resupply coming in via Holland and a shorter run to the Rhine River. That was also one of the major thoughts behind the repositioning of US armored assets into Lower Saxony and extremely close to the inner German border as the UK did not even in 1989 have large ground forces based in the border area.

By the last Reforger exercise in 1989 we did see indications of this new Soviet concept being played out in their exercises.

This was posted today by a previously provided Ukrainian link and one can or cannot accept it but it is probably next to the Breedlove photo release one of the best listings of Russian Army Order of Battle arrayed now on the Ukrainian/Crimea border region by named Russian units and equipment available.

Reminds one of the inner German border days in 1989 but we only had to deal with T72/80s not the newer T80/90s.

So you are assuming the 173rd is just for what justifying more money in an already defined and approved military budget with a planned sequester feature kicking in at the middle of this year---come on wm the 173rd is happy to be on the road for live fire exercises especially if you have ever spent eight hours on just getting to and from their own Italian live fire ranges besides they get bored in a hurry if you have seen their old and now new installations as they finished their last AFG rotation and they had only African training events on the horizon in the coming years and with the current Army wide limited training budget they are happy to be on the move as there was not much to keep them busy and there was a serious conversation in late 2013 on whether they would in fact remain in Italy or be moved to Grafenwoehr and or back to the States as their artillery Bn is in Grafenwoehr after the latest round of base closures in Germany.

Heck with the limited training budgets and limited AF assets in Europe they were having trouble just getting their pay jumps in for the BNs.

http://inforesist.org/numbers-rf-arm...iness/?lang=en

[wm]

This is not really the thread to discuss Cold War history, but I will respond to several obvious inaccuracies

The correct unit designations were the 2nd and 3rd ACRs

3rd ACR came back to the USA in 1968, returning for REFORGER 78 and 88 IIRC. The 2nd and 11th ACRs were the ACRs for the 2 USAREUR Corps.

I am not sure even up to 1989 neither USAREUR/EUCOM but mainly USAREUR felt they could not win in a direct confrontation from the get go---if that were the case then a number of USA SF teams carrying ADMs destined to create choke points and to deny freedom of movement and slow resupply would not have been needed.

Teams may have been planned for ADMs, but that was only one of many branches and sequels to the war plans. SF teams weren't just wandering around with man-portable nukes. Do you have any idea what a nut roll it was to get authorization for release of nukes in Europe? We used to practice the process in Corps/Division HQ CPXs.

It was felt that the 2 ACRs would never be enough to slow, stop and or defeat the initial charges of the Soviet Army Ground Forces Germany

The revision of FM 100-5 in 1976 was the basis for rethinking how the US Army would fight and win in Germany . The cav was a part of that effort, not the whole of it. I'm not sure where you get you claim to the contrary; perhaps, from anecdotal discussions with folks who were not really in a position to know. I used to play rugby against guys in those Cav regiments, many of whom were Troop Commanders or Squadron/Regimental staff officers. They were sure they were going to stop Ivan cold.

USAREUR moved additional armored assets to Garlstedt Lower Saxony in 85/86 timeframes in order to give an additional slow down effect and to get them out of the so called drug infested large German cities which did not in the end work but it was a great completely new base.

3rd Bde of 2nd AD arrived from TX (not German cities) in Garlstedt in 1978, not 1985, as 2AD (forward) and stayed there until 1990 when it deployed for DS/DS, returned from the desert and was finally deactivated in 1992. BTW Garlstedt is indeed in Niedersachsen, but is north of Bremen, in the NORTHAG sector. The majority of US Forces were in CENTAG. BTW, In addition to all of 1st AD, 3rd AD, 3rd ID, and 8th ID, 1st ID and 4th ID also each had a brigade forward--4th ID's Bde was in V Corps, 1st ID's Bde was in VII Corps.

Everything at that point in 1986 was designed to slow down and provide time for follow on forces out of the States to reach Europe.

Not sure where you get your information but the US needed time to get the large Reforger designated units into Europe as flow on follow on units---thus the need to create time in a holding formation. Remember the Reforger concept and you failed to mention that and the US had starting in 1968 moving a large number of it's units back to the States and kept pre-positioned equipment for the Reforger units to fall in on which they then turned back into the depots when completing the Reforger exercises---so where is this idea USAREUR felt they could win from the get go.

As part of the 1984 REFORGER/Operation CERTAIN FURY Planning team in CONUS, I know all about time frames for getting troops to Germany and equipped at the various POMCUS sites. TPFDD and TPFDLs still give me bad dreams.

Not sure where you were in 1986 but the Warsaw Pact conducted one of the largest exercises up to that point which had USAREUR stunned at what was pulled up to by the Soviet Ground Forces Germany within 30kms of the inner German border (and in Lower Saxony up to within 3kms) and what was then pulled into their secondary lines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.

Back when I worked the problem directly in the 70s and 80s, we were well aware of the availability of Soviet forces in GSFG, NGF, CGF, and SGF and the Western MDs, not to mention the WP forces of EGer, Pol, Czech, etc.

The last Reforger exercise was in 1989

REFORGER continued until 1993.

There was some new thinking for that exercise that the old Fulda Gap scenario might have been in fact wrong when the Soviet Ground Forces suddenly shifted their armored assets more northerly and focused on the Lower Saxony border area (UK protected zone) which reflected their interest in cutting all follow on resupply coming in via Holland and a shorter run to the Rhine River. That was also one of the major thoughts behind the repositioning of US armored assets into Lower Saxony and extremely close to the inner German border as the UK did not even in 1989 have large ground forces based in the border area.

I mentioned this alternative in a prior post and that I was a member of those who were suggesting it back in1978 or so.

This http://inforesist.org/numbers-rf-arm...iness/?lang=en(Relocated by wm from location in original post) was posted today by a previously provided Ukrainian link and one can or cannot accept it but it is probably next to the Breedlove photo release one of the best listings of Russian Army Order of Battle arrayed now on the Ukrainian/Crimea border region by named Russian units and equipment available.

Reminds one of the inner German border days in 1989 but we only had to deal with T72/80s not the newer T80/90s.

From my review of the content of that link, the data is a presentation of someone's belief, not necessarily actuality. I assess it as F6.

So you are assuming the 173rd is just for what justifying more money in an already defined and approved military budget with a planned sequester feature kicking in at the middle of this year---come on wm the 173rd is happy to be on the road for live fire exercises especially if you have ever spent eight hours on just getting to and from their own Italian live fire ranges besides they get bored in a hurry if you have seen their old and now new installations as they finished their last AFG rotation and they had only African training events on the horizon in the coming years and with the current Army wide limited training budget they are happy to be on the move as there was not much to keep them busy and there was a serious conversation in late 2013 on whether they would in fact remain in Italy or be moved to Grafenwoehr and or back to the States as their artillery Bn is in Grafenwoehr after the latest round of base closures in Germany.

Heck with the limited training budgets and limited AF assets in Europe they were having trouble just getting their pay jumps in for the BNs.

I said political or budget related reasons--I did not further specify. I wonder how you got all of the above from what I said. Perhaps part of the political reason was to get them out of Italy before they started getting cabin fever and messed up Italy (all in good, testosterone-pumped fun of course--that's just what airborne troops do ) I don't know, but please don't put words in my mouth.

[Stan]

REFORGER continued until 1993.

Yep, May 1993 in Kaiserslautern. most of us knew that though

But, it does ever so slightly relate to this thread, assuming the Ukraine joins NATO.

Maybe we'll call it REFORUK... but that could be confused with yanks returning to the UK

[carl]

Do you guys think Putin's grabbing of the OSCE officers is sort of a reply of the grift he ran on us in Syria? In Syria he managed to adroitly shift the attention of our chief executive from Assad's action to the status of his chem weapons stockpile. Got an agreement that was ignored and neatly put Assad's action into the land of the forgotten.

In this case he snatches the officers then will generously offer to intercede with himself to get them released. He thereby shifts attention from an looming invasion to some individuals and will gain great gratitude and approbation for himself when he is able to finally convince himself to release them, for a price of course.

The more I see of this the more I think we may be underestimating this guy. He's on the ball. Right now him vs our guys is like Bismark vs a very concerned high school sophomore.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Yep, May 1993 in Kaiserslautern. most of us knew that though

But, it does ever so slightly relate to this thread, assuming the Ukraine joins NATO.

Maybe we'll call it REFORUK... but that could be confused with yanks returning to the UK

We were confused anyway. I always thought REFORGER was a name of some super-secret forge we had somewhere.

[mirhond]

"Discipline" in the Ukrainian army.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=wwQIC37VVuI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=QQZnJ8ZinpA

Rookies have something to say to their superiors.
I could translate it, but I don't think it's neccessary, it's mostly "Get the fu(K out" ranting. Videos speak for itself.

Donbass militia claimed to capture a group SBU officers.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Onoxc7E7LO0
Faces are covered, the whole thing looks like Bravo Sierra (thanks to Stan for a new mot ) but, who knows, may be these guys are real saboteurs.

[JMA]

John McCain with Charlie Rose

The first 20 odd minutes is on Ukraine.

[carl]

"Discipline" in the Ukrainian army.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=wwQIC37VVuI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=QQZnJ8ZinpA

Rookies have something to say to their superiors.

Discipline or lack thereof in the Ukrainian Army isn't what Russia should be concerned about. Russia should be concerned about the enthusiasm of potential Ukrainian irregulars and insurgents, potential enthusiasm for plugging occupying Russian troops.