Originally Posted by kaur
1. OK, the whole site looks like BS, you are right
2. For what reason Putin would help blatantly hostile and shaking Kievan power? Because of his kind heart and righteousness?
3. Well, you aren't lost to rational thinking if you can see your own fallacies and biases.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
Putin: "I'm speaking without any irony."
http://www.nytimes.com/video/world/e...er=rss&emc=rss
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...most%20popularWhat's Putin Up to Now? Four Possible Explanations
By Carol Matlack May 23, 2014
1. He’s bluffing to buy time.
2. Sanctions are biting Russia harder than expected.
3. Putin has realized that his Ukraine strategy hasn’t worked and that he needs to regroup
4. Putin believes his Ukraine strategy is working so well that there’s no need to stir the pot further.
He has put a secession of the Eastern Ukraine on the agenda - a very different situation than six months ago.
What he lost is the prospect of a Moscow-friendly government in Kiev.
Ukraine’s Next President Vows to Restore Order and Mend Russia Ties
The turnout was indeed quite high, especially considering the difficulties to vote in annexed Crimea and the two oblasts where thousends of insurgents roam. So roughly 1 in 8 could not participate in the national elections. The vote itself was surprisingly clear, giving Poroshenko a decisive wing. Not much chances for Moscow in the medium term to get a friendly Ukraine into it's orbit.
There are mostly hard choices ahead of the elected president, which will be sworn in later.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
I think Putin gave this up when he decided to take the Crimea and its voters. Maybe he already did so at the moment when Yakunovich fled, knowing that Y. was 100% corrupt and had discredited his political wing (= demotivated many of its voters) for many years to come.
After presidential elections fight continues in Donbass.
Here is one photo series from Donetsk about batallion "Vostok". Speculations started that Chechens are now involved. This is not the same Vostok that we remember from Georgia-Russia war.
http://stainlesstlrat.livejournal.com/723894.html
Here is Russian war correspondent Arkadi Babchenko's blog with couple videos. All in Russian.
http://starshinazapasa.livejournal.com
Very good article about Russian hand in Ukraine.
http://translate.google.com/translat...n&hl=&ie=UTF-8This war, without a doubt, go down in textbooks: it is conducted in the south-east of Ukraine by Moscow PR-agencies, commercial companies, their employees and friends of employees. Even sophisticated minds of Western political consulting gurus to this is not yet reached. This war is a new type of "Novaya Gazeta" explored in a number of sources, the documents become the property of the editorial board, and eyewitness accounts of our correspondents. In this issue you will find:
- materials of the criminal case involving Alexander Boroday;
- letters and "biography" Igor Girkin (Strelkova) and his companions;
- lists for the award based on the results of the Crimean campaign submitted to the presidential administration;
- Corresponding corporate employees who have taken an ideological row Ukrainian project, in particular, "the Privy Councillor", "Internet Research Agency" (FIA), the company "ArtMedia."
No doubt that money on PR-support of our Ukrainian politicians mastered more agencies and individuals from this craft. But today tell only those who acted directly on the territory of "brotherly country".
Ukraine has no other option than to try to 'repair' relations with and coexist with Russia as the West failed them at a critical moment in their history even if it is just going through the motions.
Ukrainians will know that their only hope of independence and freedom from Russian domination will be to obtain nuclear weapons.
Last edited by JMA; 05-28-2014 at 08:52 AM.
We didn't "fail" them.
Their government rejected our (not terribly attractive) offer and no government ever joined "us" or our alliances.
You're projecting your expectations - expectations which have no foundation in the real world. They had no reason to expect us to defend them.
I wonder about this. Western govs did fail but maybe not the West. I read an article that argues western business interests, privately directed, stopping doing business and pulling or threatening to pull out of Russia had a very great effect. Those that did did so without direction because after what Putin has done recently the uncertainty of doing business in Russia may not be worth the return. Supposedly this gave Vlad and the boys great pause. Firn would probably know more about it.
Another thing that in my own uninformed opinion had an effect was the prospect of a really nasty insurgency getting going if regular Russian forces moved into Ukraine other than Crimea. It's one thing to take something easy, like Crimea, but it is another to face the prospect of an insurgency conducted by people who really know how to do it. In that sense the Ukrainians have taken care of themselves.
Then again the whole thing may start up again in a few months. Jamestown Foundation says the Russkis had to pull their forces back for the moment to demob conscripts and bring new ones in.
But ultimately your right, they'll nuke up again, or try to. Pakistan and North Korea have proven that if you have nukes and a bad attitude, you can get away with almost anything.
"We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene
Sorry, here you make a severe mistake:
Nuclaer weapons in the hands of a strong government may be a bonus, no real dispute.
However, nuclaer weapons in a state, that is in danger of becoming a failed state, may only accelerate the decline: there are fights within the state for the weapons and there is the high possibility that a neighbour uses the situation to secure imported weapons or dstroys production facilities.
Nuclaer weaopons neither prevent a state from becoming a failed state nor do they transform a failed state into a functioning state again. Therefore, Pakistan is an example with very limited value.
IMHO the Ukrainian government would be stupid to set the acquisition of nuclear weapons on the agenda.
Replace "Ukrainians" with %nationname%, "Russians" with "Americans" and this statement become even more close to the truth.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
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