Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Fuchs]

Replace "Ukrainians" with %nationname%, "Russians" with "Americans" and this statement become even more close to the truth.

There is a much cheaper way for this.

[JMA]

There is a much cheaper way for this.

That is not a credible argument.

Any unity of purpose in Europe - as has been seen during the Russian invasion of Ukraine - is near impossible without US leadership... and in this case with US leadership being impotent Europe's response to Russian aggression was pathetic (as pathetic as that of the US).

The potential problems in Europe start with Russian dreams of reestablishing their empire, Islamic based terrorism and in third place - with the departure of the US - a resurgence of the Germany of old.

The US is no longer willing or indeed able to provide a security umbrella in Europe against Russian aggression - or in the Pacific as a counter to China - so yes Europe needs to learn to stand on its own two feet. Who will lead Europe in this? Germany? That would a recipe for disaster.

[davidbfpo]

Readers can judge for themselves the debate on this sometimes controversial thread and in the knowledge there is rarely agreement on what has happened nor what should happen now.

It is a fact that in eastern Ukraine there is a Russian-speaking minority, which sometimes can be a majority (earlier in this thread are maps showing this IIRC). Ukraine has a history of population movement as a result of wars and borders changing - something I expect they all know today. In the inter-war years and in 1945 there were several examples of voluntary and compulsory population exchanges.

At the moment there is no credible Ukrainian capability or will to engage in such a transfer. Note there are some reports from the Crimea that Tatars and others wish to exit.

I have asked JMA to be clearer as to what he is advocating (he later replied via PM).

[Balcacer]

Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
To much pro west or pro Russia.
Who has the truth?

[carl]

Should we go for Ukraine or go for Russia ?
Here in Latin America we do not knowwhat is the real stuff in Ukraine.
To much pro west or pro Russia.
Who has the truth?

One thing I always thought was helpful when judging these things was this: where do people immigrate to and where do they emigrate from? Do the people from the West mostly move to Russia or do Russians mostly move to the West?

[OUTLAW 09]

For those that do not believe Russian is in fact involved directly in eastern and southern Ukraine---here is one of their drones which was shot down a couple of days ago in the Donbas region---believe near the airport fighting.

http://inforesist.org/ukrainian-secu...ussia/?lang=en


The Russian army is getting supplies of locally produced Unmanned Ariel Vehicles, UAVs. Recent tests show that they are not inferior to similar vehicles made in other countries and even surpass them in several key aspects. A commission consisting of ground force generals watched attentively how experts operate the Russian drones and how they carry out surveillance missions.


The Russian army is getting supplies of locally produced Unmanned Ariel Vehicles, UAVs. Recent tests show that they are not inferior to similar vehicles made in other countries and even surpass them in several key aspects.

A commission consisting of ground force generals watched attentively how experts operate the Russian drones and how they carry out surveillance missions. The experts focused on how the UAVs determine the coordinates precisely and how they deliver information.

Eventually, the Defence Ministry chose several drones. They are the “Orlan” developed by the Special Technological Centre, the “Lastochka” of the “Zala” Company and the “Eleron” of the “Eniks” Company. However, the “Orlan” surpassed its competitors in carrying out missions close to combat conditions, says Roman Ivanov, head of the St. Petersburg-based Special Technological Centre.

“The use of advanced composite materials in engines and controlling systems has made it possible to achieve unique characteristics,” says Roman Ivanov. “This made it possible to make them ultra-light and consequently, to take sufficient fuel to fly about 15 hours continuously. The average speed of the UAV is 150 kilometers per hour, and the range is up to 600 kilometers,” Roman Ivanov said.

Russia’s Border Guard Service has shown keen interest in the UAV “Orlan” because it is irreplaceable in monitoring distant targets. The “Orlan” can carry up to ten kilograms of equipment and fly at heights of between 4.5 and 7.0 kilometers.
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/2010/11/12/33725547/

[OUTLAW 09]

Fuchs---just a side comment---is not the eastern elections coupled with Chechen fighters now in eastern Ukraine and their stated desire to join Russia in reality "moving an entire population" from one existing state to another existing state---why is that then viewed as "ethnic cleansing".

There have been some serious thoughts given to say letting the Donbas "depart" the Ukraine---why the economic cost for both the EU and Ukraine in modernizing the industrial base and the infrastructure is massive.

Ask the Russians what the costs are now just for the Crimea just to keep it semi stable---even though the cost of food is now 50% more, fuel is only available for a max of two days at any given time, water is short and on and on---check the small comments coming out of the Crimea indicating buyers remorse is sitting in.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---there are no "Russians" in eastern Ukraine---come on guy at least agree Chechens have a Russian passport and at least agree the Vostok BN has worked together with your friends the FSB/GRU.

http://www.rferl.org/content/vostok-.../25404785.html


http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-...to-18/?lang=en

[OUTLAW 09]

Fuchs---I could sum up JMAs comments by the following-- was not the recent statements by Merkel and Obama that if the Russians interfered in the elections and or physically got involved in the eastern Ukraine stage three sanctions would be started.

1. there was massive interference in the eastern and southern Ukraine to the election process---no response from the EU/US

2. the Vostok Chechen Bn which is inherently part of the Russian FSB/GRU, is Chechen which means Russian had a total of over 70 killed with the first 34 dead bodies going back to Russia today---still no response by Merkel/EU/US-----check the link below

http://inforesist.org/43-corpses-of-...to-18/?lang=en

3. the use of Russian serial numbered MANPADs and anti armor missiles, the use of the Russian AK105s only issued to Russian GRU/SF----and again still no response by Merkel/US/EU

4. the Russian Border Guard Service is "allowing" a steady flow of Russian irregulars and weapons enter into the Ukraine almost daily---STILL no response from Merkel/Obama and company---check this link

http://inforesist.org/80-militants-a...ation/?lang=en

After all of these "none responses" after stating there would be responses leds one to believe WHAT?

No response will ever be coming and it was all "talk".

After all can Merkel in fact jump over her FDJ/SED/Russian speaking past to deal with a former "Communist KGB COL" who was based in Dresden and handled the recruitment of agents in the West and who had recruited a number of "GDR citizens who were proSoviet" for a possible KGB GDR coup because they felt Honecker was getting to "moderate" in 1989/90. Even Honecker and Mielke mistrusted Putin and the Dresden KGB center.

Notice she has been extremely quiet since the 25th.

[Steve Blair]

Since folks seem to be making some less than optimal decisions here, I'm closing this thread for the time being. We will reopen it once we feel there's been enough time for folks to cool down. I'm doing this in preference to handing out infractions, but that's my individual choice. For now.

[davidbfpo]

After a review by the Moderators this thread has been unlocked to enable SWC members to return to the discussion on this continuing crisis.

This thread has had to be locked before, with disciplinary action taken when SWC rules were breached several times and was locked a few days ago to enable a cooling down period. A number of posts have - again - been deleted and others edited to remove references to the breaches.

As Kaur has stated (on the Info Ops thread) and is cited now (in part):

Moderators, I don't understand why you closed the "Ukraine" thread. There is going on war that should be covered by this site. Am I wrong?

The Moderators repeat we are here to ensure SWC continues to be a useful place for members and readers. The RoE are clear. We are a "broad church" of opinions and viewpoints.

[mirhond]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPNyfruTJEw#t=104

Separatists from Lugansk seized a border guard outpost. Good move to secure supply line from Russia.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/03/wo...iref=allsearch

Airstrike kills 8 civilians in Lugansk. Mundane stuff of the civil wars, but I'am amazed that even CNN admit it.

[kaur]

Ukraine admits that there are serious problems controlling borders.

Meanwhile, the situation along Ukraine's border with Russia appeared to be increasingly deteriorating on Thursday. The State Border Service said it had shut down all of its bases in the Luhansk region that weren't on the border because they had become increasingly cut off by separatists who had laid siege to several of them.

Ukraine has repeatedly accused Russia of allowing fighters and arms to filter across the border to join the separatists in the east, an allegation Russia has denied.

The border service closed three crossings in Luhansk entirely early on Thursday after they came under heavy fire. The service said it had requested that the government in Kiev consider closing several more checkpoints.

"It is now extremely difficult to control the state border in some areas," the service said in a statement. "Border guards continue to perform their duties, but the real problem is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, National Guard and local law-enforcement agencies, which leaves the rear approaches to the state border undefended."

http://online.wsj.com/articles/russi...ine-1401971825

Pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine's east have conducted a string of successful attacks on checkpoints in recent days, forcing Ukraine border guards to abandon a 130-kilometer stretch of its border with Russia, former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yury Lutsenko said Thursday on his Facebook page.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/501647.html

One nice article was published this Monday by Russian MP Ponomaryov. He wrote also about Russian hand in Ukraine.

Hand of Moscow

Actually, there are a few Russians - according to the "Commander of the forces of DNR" Strelok/Girkin (FSB anti-terrorist officer himself), no more than 10%. Their role is very important. According to the people I trust, FSB was present in Slovyansk. I have not personally seen no currently serving GRU officer, but many militias have service experience there and went through Afghan and Chechnya. According to my sources, military advisers from Russia in the first month of the conflict were regularly seen in Kramatorsk and Artem - where they had communication centre, where they coordinated the action Strelok/Girkin groups. The absolute majority of the forces of protest - that local people with drive, which, in fact, now and killed by bullets Ukrainian Army and National Guard.

http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/83081

Russian politician asks question from FSB.

“Dozens of killed in Ukraine men were transferred back to Chechnya and Kadyrov still claims that they are volunteers and he has NO relation to them. Volunteers, you say? Those who on the 27th of May broke through Ukrainian-Russian border whilst not facing any resistance from the Russian border guards. So, I address the FSB and RIC (Russian Investigative Committee – ed.) where are the opened criminal cases on this fact? If there are no cases, then these are Kadyrov’s Special Forces and servicemen of the MIA of Chechnya. If there are cases then why Bastrikin and Bortnikov (heads of the RIC and FSB respectively – ed.) are quiet,” – wrote Nemtsov.

http://inforesist.org/nemtsov-asked-...onbas/?lang=en

Considering above it is funny to read this EU COM raport about common steps for visa free regime between EU-RU.

http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs..._regime_en.pdf