The annexation of Crimea for one. This is now part of Russia and not part of a neighbouring state which was increasingly difficult to dominate.
Originally Posted by Ulenspiegel
The annexation of Crimea for one. This is now part of Russia and not part of a neighbouring state which was increasingly difficult to dominate.
They (re)occupied a region, that is supplied by Ukraine, with an economy much weaker than their own in order to secure a maritime base. This menas in my book they will have to pay.
Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.
Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.
Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.
I agree. A key to understand the current crisis is that the personal goals of Putin and Russia aren't necessarily the same, to put it midly. This is true even if there is no doubt that for now, after massive propaganda campaigns, the Kremlin leader has a very strong popular backing.
PewGlobal has some interesting new polls:
More than seven-in-ten Ukrainians also express disappointment with Putin. Broad majorities of Ukrainians in the west (89%) and the east (66%) express no confidence in Russia’s president, while just 5% of residents of Crimea say the same. About half of Russian-only speakers (51%) in the east lack confidence in Putin’s foreign policy compared with 43% who say they trust him.
It strongly supports the comment of many that almost all of Ukraine will be lost for quite some time for Russia as friend and partner. The aspect of the minority of the minority of Russian-only speakers which trust Putin is of course interesting.Ukrainians’ attitudes toward Russia also have changed significantly over time. Six-in-ten in Ukraine rate Russia unfavorably today, compared with just 11% in 2011, the last time the question was asked. Within Ukraine, there are deep divides by region and language. More than eight-in-ten in the country’s west (83%) give Russia low marks, compared with 45% in the east and only 4% in Crimea. Within the east, Russian-only speakers (28%) are less negative toward Russia than their neighbors (58%).2
P.S: Good to see oversampling in the East and Crimea, given their smaller size. Russian-only speakers tend of course to be over-rappresented as they are considerable more urban then bilinguals.But another survey, published by Ukraine's Razumkov Center last week, makes unhappy reading for the Russian President. The Razumkov pollsters said 54 percent of Ukrainian people want their country to join Nato, with just 32 percent against.
Country: Ukraine
Sample design: Multi-stage cluster sample stratified by Ukraine’s six regions plus ten of the largest cities – Kyiv (Kiev), Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Lviv, Kryvyi Rih, Lugansk, and Mikolayev – as well as three cities on the Crimean peninsula – Simferopol, Sevastopol, and Kerch
Mode: Face-to-face adults 18 plus
Languages: Russian, Ukrainian
Fieldwork dates: April 5 – April 23, 2014
Sample size: 1,659
Margin of error: +/-3.3 percentage points
Representative: Adult population (Survey includes oversamples of Crimea and of the South, East and Southeast regions. The data were weighted to reflect the actual regional distribution in Ukraine.)
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Are you saying you don't understand the importance to Russia of the access to the Black Sea afforded by bases in Crimea? I would suggest they are prepared to pay... and with the annexation it will make it that much more difficult for Russia to hand Crimea back.
It seems that the patheticly weak response from the US and Germany to the annexation will serve to embolden Russia (as did the pathetic response from the West to the Russian aggression in Georgia in 2008). When will Russia make its next move? Not a matter of if, rather one of when.
When Ukraine promised to take Crimea back the Russians threatened to use nukes. That got the urine flowing on the White House floor again and the Germans no doubt making promises of no more sanctions.
Game, set and match to Russia.
I am no suggesting that Putin is the master strategist. Maybe his critics are correct that he is taking a short term view. It is not like he has any opposition... Obama and Frau Merkel's Germany are a joke. He has two years left of Obama... he can operate with much freedom, even a challenge to NATO (he would probably get away with).Without occupation of eastern Ukraine Russia faces the interesting situation that parts of "her" industry are now located in a country that was turned from neutral/friendly to hostile by Russian operations. Great. BTW there are not only some production facilities for military hardware but also for oil/gas production and distribution in Ukraine. Of course they can rebuild this industry in Mother Russia, however, that will cost.
Occupation of eastern parts of Ukraine, again a region with weaker economy, may solve the industrial problem, but requires even more investments than the Krim.
Ukraine was drifting away from Russia anyway (for good historical reasons) and Putin would have seen that. Putin would be smart enough to realise that there is no military threat from Ukraine and Europe (although he may play to the Russian audience in this regard).Western Ukraine, a neutral or friendly buffer, is lost and a country with around ~30 million citizen (around 1/4 of the Russian population) will now spend recources to defend against Russian operations in future.
Nope, they didn't. Lavrov's speech doesn't contain word "nuclear". Besides, Ukropian army isn't fit to hold a candle to Russian one.
Last edited by mirhond; 07-13-2014 at 09:44 AM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
Yes... they don't need to use the word to make the point. Russia is the bully boy of the region, that is why I suggested that the US should offer to supply Ukraine with tactical nukes - they will use them and make Russia pay a heavy price for any future adventurism.
1. Sheer speculation.
2. You think Poroshenko&Co are so insane that they will use tactical nukes and make a national suicide? You really believe it? What evidence you have to support this belief?
upd.
Interview with Swedish sniper who fights on Ukrainian side in "Azov" batallion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR-HgxxCf9c
twitter channel of this guy.
https://twitter.com/MikaelSkillt
Is anyone here knows Swedish good enough to (dis)prove this story?
Last edited by mirhond; 07-14-2014 at 07:46 PM.
Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.
MAD... mutually assured destruction
In the case of the US and Russia the US clearly thought the Russians would. This fear of nukes among the US population has been used by good effect by the Russians for many years.
In the case of the Ukraine the Russians have the weapons and the Ukrainians don't. It would go someway to prevent Russian territorial adventurism if the Ukrainians had at least tactical nukes and drew a red-line along their border with regard to a Russian invasion. If there was this nueclear threat - albeit limited - would the Russians be dumb enough to invade? Of course the Ukrainians would have to consider which outcome would be worst, occupation and subjugation of all or some of its territory by their old enemy Russia or massive damage from a nuclear strike. At minimum it would make the Russians think twice.
Last edited by JMA; 07-15-2014 at 03:03 AM.
come on Russian expert mirhond---what a broken record---this is the same Russian Army that sends in Russian SF carrying their own passports and they get killed and have those passports on them, the same Russian Army that "somehow" misplaced 25 T64 tanks that were to be destroyed under the OCSE regime, the same Russian Army that drove Grads to the Ukrainian border parked them and then did what---walked away, the same Russian Army that yesterday admitted to sending advanced weapons into the Ukraine since 3 Jul, the same Russian Army that somehow cannot secure even the Russian/Ukrainian Army after being told to do it by Putin himself.
so come on Russian expert mirhond--we are talking about the same Russian Army---right?
Or maybe Russian expert mirhond the Russian Army you are talking about is lost somewhere on the Chinese border using a map and compass to find St. Petersburg?
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks