Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

The Warsaw pact doesn't exist any more, so it's difficult to tell how Russia could violate the '90 treaty. It's not a member of the '99 treaty and the West never was. There's no real case for complaining about Russian non-compliance here.

And yes, the Cold War is over.


The problem here (and all over the world, all the time) is that humans get used to almost everything, real quick. They got used so much to the post-Cold War world that they can freak out about 'threats' that would have been barely recognisable during the Cold War when the noise level of threats was much higher.

So yes, the Cold War is over and yes, Russia is a marginal threat to us now. The fact that Ukraine is not "us" is at the core of the current crisis. They did NOT join "us", and thus Russia is still a very valid defence concern to them to say the least.

Their security problem isn't that Russia still has stockpiles of 25-50 year old military hardware. Their security problem is that they had a government which wasn't interested in preparing defences and their security forces are now ineffective even against the very small 'troops concentration' nearby.
A few hundred spec ops guys and a few ten thousand regulars are a seemingly insurmountable problem to the Ukraine because it has no loyal, competent, equipped security forces - their security forces are now less effective than Portugal's and that's no good in their neighbourhood.

Fuchs---check your OCSE dates and Yes Russia is a signatory of the various OCSE treaties and thus required to meet disarmament compliance numbers as was the rest of NATO.

Check this link---you do not have to believe it or not but it is the current Russian Army Order of Battle of the forces arrayed on the Ukrainian and Crimea border regions and it is a tad larger than the current number of Russian special operations/GRU types already inside eastern Ukraine.

http://inforesist.org/numbers-rf-arm...iness/?lang=en

Fuchs---check the Russian OB again and tell me you statement below is correct.

A few hundred spec ops guys and a few ten thousand regulars are a seemingly insurmountable problem to the Ukraine because it has no loyal, competent, equipped security forces - their security forces are now less effective than Portugal's and that's no good in their neighbourhood

If the Russian OB is correct and the forces arrayed are accurately portrayed THEN all current NATO countries would have problems countering the current Russian force composition-this includes the US--this is the new professional Russian Army in a very functional and efficient battle formation array designed for speed, shock and awe coupled with close air support and fighter air cover coupled with AWCS.

By the way this does not include the latest Russian Air Defense Bdes sent to Kaliningrad which can effectively limit NATO aircraft movements in the Baltics and the S300s based in the Crimea which will limit any aircraft movement in the south.

Remember the latest Russian Army troop movements came to a stop within 1km from the Ukrainian border and it was more than just a BN and it was accompanied by fighter aircraft providing air/ground attack support.