Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Firn]

The Jewish perspective:


I posted earlier that some facts are stranger then fiction, ex-IDF soldiers who participated partly under Svoboda command in Euromaidan:

But Delta says the Kremlin is using the anti-Semitism card falsely to delegitimize the Ukrainian revolution, which is distancing Ukraine from Russia’s sphere of influence.

“It’s bull####. I never saw any expression of anti-Semitism during the protests, and the claims to the contrary were part of the reason I joined the movement. We’re trying to show that Jews care,” he said.

Now we have a chief Ukrainian Rabbi, vice president of the World Jewish Council who agrees with him and accuses the Kremlin of false-flag operations.

Asked about anti-Semitism among Ukrainian nationalists, particularly two far-right parties that have been included in the new government, Bleich acknowledged concerns but said the Jewish community has received assurances from top government leaders that their safety will be protected.

“The Russians are blowing this way, way out of proportion,” he said, referring to the issue of anti-Semitism among some Ukrainian nationalist factions.

He said that Ukrainians were united in response to the Russian intervention.

“There were many differences of opinion throughout the revolution, but today all that is gone,” he said. “We’re faced by an outside threat called Russia. It’s brought everyone together.”

Of course there are still stark divisions but he is just one of many who said that the Russian attack had also an uniting effect.

Interestingly the same newspaper had an entry about a Rabbi shot in Russia several months ago in an attack believed to be anti-semitic. Such a case doesn't mean of course that the even a small part of the Russian population is anti-semitic.

[Firn]

A Russian soldiers perspective:

An interesting chat with a Russian soldier in the Crimea. With all those reporters and all those soldiers it was just a question of time to get somebody to talk a bit more.

The obviously unverified YT translation sounds pretty much what you would hear from most soldiers in that situation...

Translation for English speakers:

=Dialog with the solder=
-he from Russia.
-they come to Crimea to prevent terrorism. He don't know what kind or who are terrorists.
-he think that this is not Ukrainian territory this is Crimea Republic. But then agree that Ukrainian Law applying here
-they have no intentions to shoot here
-he'v been asked: do you have any information about terrorists in Ukraine, we are from press if you give us that information we can help we can check. Solder answer nothing
-he told they don't ware any identity because they wearing such a kind of uniform
-Did you noticed any crime already? Not yet

Overall the Russian forces have acted from what I could gather professionally and disciplined. The confrontations with western journalists and Crimeans loyal to Kyiv have come all from small pro-Russian crowds and 'self-defense' activists.

A better translation. There are lots of them, and nobody seems to disagree.

Cam: Greeting are you in charge? Introduce yourself
Troop: Introduce? How? Not allowed - We don't have badges see?
Cam: Pretty new uniform! What army?
Troop: You can't guess?
Cam: My business isn't to guess, find facts
Troop: And mine are not to talk
Cam: Who can clarify what kind of military force is in the territory...
Troop: what territory? Who might you be?
Cam: UkrStream
Troop: So Local? Ukrainian?
Cam: Yes, and you're not local? You're Ukrainian?
Troop: We are Russians
Cam: Well then explain what Russian military is doing on Ukrainian Territory if you're in charge of this (brigade / group)
Troop: Protection - So that there are no terrorist acts
Cam: Is there info that there will be [terrorist acts] what kind?
Troop: Well, don't know I can't answer your questions
Woman: Information comes from where? Someone is informing you?
Troop: why are you filming, no need...
Woman: this is a public place.... we have the right to film so explain why we are being approached by men with weapons telling us not to film - do they know Ukrainian law?
Troop: Because you can't film them, - It's Crimean law here.
Cam: This is Ukrainian Territory

[davidbfpo]

Firn,

The exchange with the Russian unofficial soldier reminds me of the reported conversations in 1968 when the USSR and allies 'fraternally intervened' in Czechoslovakia. Many Czechoslovaks then spoke Russian fluently and so were able to ask why they were there and explain the difference between the official explanation and reality.

There is another parallel to 1968, the Czechoslovak armed forces remained in their barracks and never offered any resistance.

[AdamG]

With all those reporters and all those soldiers it was just a question of time to get somebody to talk a bit more.

Actually, I've read where the 'interviewer' is the same individual that's made the rounds being a provocative schiesse-stirer, for whatever reason.

Then again, the least-bright soldier is inevitable the one who runs his mouth in front of a camera no matter what uniform he's wearing.

[Dayuhan]

Certainly Russia realises that Germany - being significantly dependent on Russia - will be the last to sign on for any form of sanctions will be able to push the envelope as a result.

The Brits will also be in no hurry to place meaningful sanctions on Russia.

That's the reality of sanctions: if they aren't hurting the sanctioning party, they aren't going to hurt the sanctioned party either. To deprive the Russians of oil and gas revenue, somebody has to go without oil and gas. To deprive the Russians of manufactured goods, somebody has to forego export revenues. In this case both burdens land largely on Germany, and the Germans aren't likely to go along with it... and if they don't, the sanctions don't work.

Unilateral US sanctions would achieve very little beyond allowing US politicians to say they did something.

The US will huff and puff...

What do you want to see the US do?

In the medium (10 years) or long term (>20 years) timeframe the Russian position is not strong when we consider decreasing demand for NG and oil in Europe, the increasing global LNG capacities, lack of Russian LNG capacity, and the structure of the Russian (export) economy. Most of the NG is used in central Europe for heating of buildings. Fortunately, these buildings have an poor insulation level. :-)

The best answer is to build one or two more LNG facilities in the Netherlands, UK and Germany, to ramp-up refitting programs for buildings (KfW) and simply wait. The goal is to compensate for decline of UK and Norwegian NG production with more non-Russian LNG imports, at the same time, efficiency gains will reduce demand for Russian NG.

Very true, and if Germany wants to send a signal to the Soviet Union, one of the clearest signals they could send would be to announce a plan for a major LNG terminal, the capacity of which would (coincidentally, of course) be roughly equal to Germany's gas imports from Russia.

In the short run, of course, the equation is somewhat different. Germany (and the rest of western Europe) certainly can wean themselves from Russian gas, but they can't do it overnight: there's enough LNG available, but the infrastructure would have to be realigned to support it. That process would reduce Russian leverage and force the Russians to find other outlets (probably very long and expensive pipelines to Asia), but it might also be an incentive for the Russians to try to play the gas card while they still have it.

As the economy of Ukraine is a mess - it is even worse than the Russian economy - an occupation of more territory than the Crim does not improve the Russian strategic position IMHO.

Also true, but this may be less about a specific strategic or economic goal than about an emotional goal, the desire to restore former Soviet territory and lay claim to the "make Russia great again". These actions aren't always entirely rational: look at the Falklands for an example!

[Fuchs]

Very true, and if Germany wants to send a signal to the Soviet Union,

You made my day.

(And it's barely 0116 here...)

[AmericanPride]

As expected, gas prices possibly to rise in Ukraine:

Also on Tuesday, Alexei Miller, Gazprom chief executive, said that Russia’s gas company would raise natural gas price for Ukraine from the start of the next month. Ukraine paid Gazprom 400 dollars per thousand cubic metres last year. The price was cut to 268.50 dollars under a deal, which was struck in December. Kiev owns Gazprom nearly 2 billion dollars. Meanwhile, John Kerry announced that the US would provide Kiev with 1 billion dollars in new loan guarantees.

I don't want to say that the Ukrainian revolution will turn a single event or another, but I definitely think the gas economics will play a substantial role in how this drama proceeds. This is the modern equivalent to the ancient Roman grain supply. Between price increases and to-be-announced IMF reforms, the Kiev government has some substantial hurdles to overcome in the near future.

[Fuchs]

Winter is about to end.
This is a graph for German consumers, showing a typical household consumption of natural gas:


http://www.swm.de/dms/swm/bilder/pri...erlauf-gas.gif

I suppose the consumption in the Ukraine will fall sharply soon as well - and the winter was warm in Central Europe, so the underground storage sites are probably well-filled.

The industrial consumption of natural gas is more evenly distributed over the year, of course.

[AmericanPride]

Fuchs,

Good point. But that would delay the problem, not fix it. I think we have to wait to see what the IMF package looks like. And I think that's what Moscow is waiting for also. The IMF may not be able to deliver a package politically feasible for Kiev (it wasn't acceptable to Yanukovych). So that may mean reaching out to Moscow, the very reason why the opposition moved against Yanukovych in the first place...

EDIT: Who wants to make any suggestions about what this operation might mean for modern state warfare in the nuclear age and the security of Europe?

[Fuchs]

I doubt that the IMF has enough liquidity to support the Ukraine for the next two years AND maintain enough liquidity to maintain confidence in its abilities.

The IMF may become the agent, but I expect that countries need to raise billions and deposit them at the IMF before it can do this.
So again; EU is busy, US is in deadlock, ...

Note: Kerry didn't promise a billion USD as some headlines claimed, but guarantees for a billion USD so some banks can lend without risk to Ukraine. This is more easily possible legally AFAIK.

[JMA]

That's the reality of sanctions: if they aren't hurting the sanctioning party, they aren't going to hurt the sanctioned party either. To deprive the Russians of oil and gas revenue, somebody has to go without oil and gas. To deprive the Russians of manufactured goods, somebody has to forego export revenues. In this case both burdens land largely on Germany, and the Germans aren't likely to go along with it... and if they don't, the sanctions don't work.

Unilateral US sanctions would achieve very little beyond allowing US politicians to say they did something.

You are stating the obvious - and probably a product of a Google search.

What do you want to see the US do?

Hopefully nothing. The US tends to get its interventions wrong more often than not. The US remains dangerously politically inept which is a pity because so much could have been achieved after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

[JMA]

Still waiting to hear the excuse the CIA will offer for missing the ball on this on.

Anyone out there still believe the US is getting the best bang ofr the buck from this outfit?

[Firn]

Stepping back to look at the big picture it is fascinating to note the role of the political willpower in the various states and alliances.

In Russia Putins will and almost total control over the media has so far shaped up the first part of the conflict. The invasion of the Crimea was the continuation of his politics with military means. Of course as Clausewitz underlined, the military means are just part of the package:

1) The (confusing?) diplomancy hardly never stopped, although the man himself kept quite for a couple of days. A propaganda war gets waged, political provocateurs gets bussed into Urkainian territory, Russians payed to stage protests at home to support the political actions of the Russian leadership and the political allies within the Ukraine.

2) Economic actions like the cancellation of the loans and threats as heard from Gazprom happened. The Crimeas get promised steams of money and honey.

3) Apart form the cover-overt military invasion of the Crimea military exercises get staged and paramilitary 'self-defense' forces are formed, partly from Russian Russians flown in.

Ukrainians rush to join military. This reminds me of Clausewitz comments on the French revolution and the Prussian ability to field far more troops after half of it's area was lost the before. Of course they are absolutely not prepared for all those volunteers and called ups, the training was likely not all that good, it will take a lot of time to prepare, equipment will be lacking but it is quite a change from the first days.

"I want to take part in the fight," said Roman Surzhikov, a 33-year-old engineer and army reservist, one of a steady stream of people going into an army recruitment centre in the city centre on Tuesday, despite a "closed" sign outside.

"Have they declared a general mobilisation yet?" he asked the woman at reception.

....


Television footage showed long queues in front of recruitment centres. The defence ministry declined to tell AFP how many had actually signed up, saying the information was top secret.

Faced with more volunteers than it could take, the recruitment office in central Kiev decided to shut its doors until Thursday.

Volodymyr Bykovski, who works at the office and has already been signed up himself, confirmed he had seen an influx of keen men - young and old - since the weekend.

"Most of them came on their own initiative" rather than being called up, he said, smoking a cigarette outside the centre, which was topped by the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag.

This is not just restricted to Kviev, yesterday I looked around and it seems that pretty much all over the country similar events can be witnessed. Of course it might be more in some areas fewer in others, but there is no doubt that many want to serve their country in this crisis.

[Firn]

Perhaps the most important rumour right now:

11:25:

A top EU official says the organisation is willing to provide Ukraine with a $15bn [not €?] aid package in loans and grants, AP reports.

As I have written before the Russian aggression seems to force the EU (and the USA) to get the big check book out. Now if the USA answers in kind we have roughly the € 30bn I have deemed to be a proper response as a SWAG. We will see.

[mirhond]

One finger

So far not shot has been fired. Till now, as unarmed Ukrainian soldiers march are greeted by Russian soldiers with warning shots.

It just takes one nervous finger on the trigger, one finger for the first wounded or dead.

The most hilarious part of this video are the comments and exclamations of the participants.
I'll just translate my favorites for you, guys:

"America with us!" (1:26)

" Here is a Soviet banner, will you shoot at it?" (1:30)

Don't you find it completely surreal?

ps. About sanctions. You, Westerners, somehow missed the major point - any sanctions, especially freezing or seizing the financial assets of the ruling classes just give Putin a bit more popular support, because wide-spread attitude here, in Russia, is: "What is bad for crooked cleptocrats, oligarchy and elites - is good for nation", and for Putin of cause, he is still a kinda beloved leader.

[AdamG]

I truly hope for the Russian people that Putin does not listen to him, for Russia the economic game is already tough enough and scoring own goals is more likely to wreak economic havoc at home.


I would love to hear if and how much money they used yesterday to keep the ruble afloat. However it is quite possible that the Russian Central Bank is already under orders to keep things as much as possible under wraps.

Cash money seems the be the Center of Gravity in the 2014 Crimean Games.

The world’s 300 wealthiest people lost a combined $44.4 billion yesterday as global stocks tumbled the most in a month and the ruble dropped to an all-time low amid Russia’s growing military presence in Ukraine.

The day’s biggest losers were Gennady Timchenko and Leonid Mikhelson, who fell a combined $3.2 billion after OAO Novatek slumped almost 18 percent, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a daily ranking of the richest people on Earth. The two billionaires own almost half of Russia’s largest gas producer after Gazprom OAO.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...s-retreat.html

[AdamG]

Consider this a P.S.A. for those not already watching the political flanks.

See http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...d.php?p=153127

[AmericanPride]

Still waiting to hear the excuse the CIA will offer for missing the ball on this on.

Anyone out there still believe the US is getting the best bang ofr the buck from this outfit?

That's my question also.

Kerry was "assured" by Lavrov that the military exercises were unrelated to Ukraine, only to have paramilitaries arrive en masse across Crimea the next day. The activated forces were airborne, aerospace defense, and airlift forces, which now in hindsight is obvious why. It was five days from Yanukovych's overthrow (22 Feb) to the occupation of Crimea (27 Feb). The drills started the day before, 26 Feb.

My theory is that (1) Washington was not expecting military action, blinded by its own assessment of Moscow's intentions, and (2) once the drills were ordered, events moved too quickly for Washington to do anything about it.

From the New York Times on IMF conditions:

A team from the International Monetary Fund is in Kiev to study the books and consider a stabilization loan. The fund is expected to demand difficult changes, including the reduction of lavish subsidies on gas prices, so the American and European money is intended in part to help cushion the blow to Ukrainian voters before new elections in May.

...

The loan announcement on Wednesday came from Jos Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, the unions executive arm. He said that the offer of 11 billion euros over the next couple of years included 1.6 billion euros, or about $2.2 billion, in loans and 1.4 billion euros in grants, as well as 3 billion euros in new credit from the European Investment Bank through 2016.

The pending economic changes coming to Ukraine will not help an administration perceived by ethnic Russians to be "fascists"; from Euronews:

Dozens of people have been hurt in clashes in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Violence reportedly broke out when pro-Russia activists stormed the regional governments headquarters.

Thousands of people had gathered outside the building during a protest against Ukraines new leaders who ousted President Viktor Yanukovych a week ago.

[AdamG]

As Washington DC prepares to open up the cash faucet (again), I have an uncomfortable rhetorical question: where'd Kiev's gold go?

Speaking in parliament, Yatsenyuk said that the former government had left the country with $75bn of debts. "Over $20bn of gold reserve were embezzled. They took $37bn of loans that disappeared," Yatsenyuk said. "Around $70bn was moved to offshore accounts from Ukraine's financial system in the last three years," he claimed.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ukovych-russia

[carl]

ps. About sanctions. You, Westerners, somehow missed the major point - any sanctions, especially freezing or seizing the financial assets of the ruling classes just give Putin a bit more popular support, because wide-spread attitude here, in Russia, is: "What is bad for crooked cleptocrats, oligarchy and elites - is good for nation", and for Putin of cause, he is still a kinda beloved leader.

That brings up the question of who constitutes Vlad's real constituency, the ones he actually cares most about, the Russians or the oligarchs? Judging by the state of Russian public health, I'm figuring it isn't the people.

That video may have been surreal, but people die in surreal circumstance too.