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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #201
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Just a quick look at the a center of gravity, the financial markets as AdamG put it.

    The Bank Rossii supported the ruble with another $ 300m yesterday. Not much compared to Monday, but more the in an usual couple of weeks togheter.

    The ruble was affected by "the well-known political factor," Ms. Nabiullina said at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin and members of the government.

    To prevent the ruble from declining further, the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates on Monday and sold $ 11.3 billion on the open market from its currency reserves. This contrasted with daily interventions by the central bank of a few hundred million dollars in previous weeks. On Tuesday the central bank spent $300 million to prop up the ruble, Ms. Nabiullina said.

    She said that a prolonged strengthening of the ruble is possible only if Russia's economic fundamentals improve.
    The Bank Rossii has still around $ 150B quite readily available but it certainly wants to play it save.

    @mirhond: A crashing stock market in Russia, mostly due to a natural market reaction to military conflict, is actually a pretty targeted outcome against the Russian elite and upper class . I doubt that more then 15% of the Russians hold directly shares. The talk of economic sanction has certainly done it's part too. If the occupation flares up again, the Russian shares will obviously bear the brunt.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  2. #202
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    That brings up the question of who constitutes Vlad's real constituency, the ones he actually cares most about, the Russians or the oligarchs? Judging by the state of Russian public health, I'm figuring it isn't the people.

    That video may have been surreal, but people die in surreal circumstance too.
    No one of those "brave airmen" were in danger, they have already learned that "polite people with guns" are not about to shoot at them. (one of those "polite guys" on the video is a defected civil security guard, hated "Berkut")

    on Putin. You are right about his constituency, but look at this from other side - sanctions will give him a tool to break his chains and become truly independent. Old good alliance of the King and the People against the Aristocracy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    @mirhond: A crashing stock market in Russia, mostly due to a natural market reaction to military conflict, is actually a pretty targeted outcome against the Russian elite and upper class . I doubt that more then 15% of the Russians hold directly shares. The talk of economic sanction has certainly done it's part too. If the occupation flares up again, the Russian shares will obviously bear the brunt.
    I think my answer to carl answers your note too. Besides, our stock-market is a fairy kingdom, completley misterious to majority of population. I'm not sure about numbers, but I'd rather divide your guess of 15% share-holders by 3. Moreover, financial wellfare of the political elites and upper classes is hardly secured in shares and securities, so they will not suffer a lot.
    Last edited by mirhond; 03-05-2014 at 07:56 PM.

  3. #203
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    I think my answer to carl answers your note too. Besides, our stock-market is a fairy kingdom, completley misterious to majority of population. I'm not sure about numbers, but I'd rather divide your guess of 15% share-holders by 3. Moreover, financial wellfare of the political elites and upper classes is hardly secured in shares and securities, so they will not suffer a lot.
    I did not look it up before and wanted to be on the conserative side. 5% sounds indeed more likely.

    I actually wrote before that the Russian soldiers are doing generally a fine professional and disciplined job. They can of course increasingly outsources the nasty stuff to those paramilitary types but this doesn't change that they are so far conducting overall a pretty chilly and calm occupation.

    Talking about paramilitary guys and pro-Russian crowds how did the following happen:



    From ITV James Mates

    UN special envoy Robert Serry with me in coffee shop. Outside local militia block the door. #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/pbotNqCG3i
    Very unpleasant incident over. Robert Serry said v happy to leave #crimea if it helped de escalate the situation.
    1) Completely spontaneous?
    2) A targeted pro-Russian show gone out of control?
    3) Planned that way?

    The most probable answer seems 2) with some local Crimean leaders not able to handle it properly. A mob with some gunmen won't help the Russian diplomacy. But of course it is impossible to say from the outside.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-05-2014 at 08:11 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  4. #204
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    I think the emphasis on the Russian stock market is out of place. First, as mirhond noted, there is not a significant amount of stakeholders and there is potentially political opportunity for Putin and his administration. Secondly, how do the losses measure in value and time with the gains desired by Moscow? Market losses are transient; losing Ukraine politically is potentially permanent. I suspect that Washington is significantly more sensitive to market movement than Moscow and this may be affecting perceptions on how Moscow is expected to respond to the stock market.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  5. #205
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    Default Family, Friends and Finances.....

    Part of my New Year's eve resolution was to stop looking at these situations through the traditional war analysis viewpoints (Clausewitz,etc.) cause they just don't seem to work IMO. So I am going back to the more traditional Law Enforcement Investigative techniques, in which I case I will view these situation as Crimes in progress and proceed from there.


    It is really interesting to view the family history of our Secretary of State. The Direct Family links to some of the most famous names of Wall Street and with his family ties to International business, which have with direct ties back to......Germany and England and numerous International organizations.

    My first question would have to be is where exactly is this man's loyalty.

    Google the names of John Kerry and his wife Teresa Heinz for yourself.


    mirhond I like your posts very interesting stuff!!
    Last edited by slapout9; 03-05-2014 at 09:11 PM. Reason: stuff

  6. #206
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by AmericanPride View Post

    The pending economic changes coming to Ukraine will not help an administration perceived by ethnic Russians to be "fascists"; from Euronews:
    Dozens of people have been hurt in clashes in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv. Violence reportedly broke out when pro-Russia activists stormed the regional governments headquarters.

    Thousands of people had gathered outside the building during a protest against Ukraines new leaders who ousted President Viktor Yanukovych a week ago.
    Euronews learned from Goebbels well. What was really happened you may see herehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFjIEApn-ZU

    Quite funny story lies behind this. Regional government was previously taken and barricaded by mobile group of "maidaneros", but pro-russian locals gathered to confront them, finally they breached inside and beat some #### out of occupants. Under cover of chaos, one guy from Moscow reached the roof of the building, hauled down Ukranian banner and raised Russian one.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gq0eVbYB9Q
    Last edited by mirhond; 03-05-2014 at 09:16 PM.

  7. #207
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    I personally don't thinkt that a mob beating up people is funny, nor is the shooting or molotov stuff, but to each his own I guess.

    Quite a nasty affair indeed. At least a gunmen and a group of guys dressed like a paramilitary, force him to stop and to retreat. Afterwards a couple of shouting protesters moves in and do their thing and chant victory as he drives off. A heroic win for Russian ah Crimean diplomacy, bravely done.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-05-2014 at 11:33 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Maybe an unintended consequence but what is clear is that while Putin can attract people of Russian origin to 'his side' by demanding incorporation into mother Russia he is alienating Ukrainians (and probably all other non-Russians bordering on Russia) for all time.

    It seems that Putin is blinded by the history of the Russian Empire from seeing that the only way he will be able to rebuild the Russian Empire is through conquest and subjugation.

    How does he think he will get away with this?

    A weak US and having had Germany roll over (accepting energy dependency) has obviously emboldened him...

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Having access to RT (the Russian channel) it is bizarre to hear and see two absolute opposite views on the same situation being presented.

    Also locally there are questions being asked about how quickly the US forgets about their own Monroe Doctrine and their 'invasions' of Panama and Grenada.
    Some push back from American hosts on RT:

    Russia Today news anchor Liz Wahl resigns live on air over Ukraine crisis

    Veering off script, Wahl said: "I cannot be part of a network funded by the Russian government that whitewashes the actions of Putin. I'm proud to be an American and believe in disseminating the truth, and that is why, after this newscast, I'm resigning."
    Aslo:

    Russia Today Host Abby Martin Goes Spectacularly Off-Message In Ukraine Broadcast

    Pacing the Washington studio, Martin continued: "Just because I work here, for RT, doesn't mean I don't have editorial independence and I can't stress enough how strongly I am against any military intervention in sovereign nations' affairs. What Russia did is wrong."

  10. #210
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    on Putin. You are right about his constituency, but look at this from other side - sanctions will give him a tool to break his chains and become truly independent. Old good alliance of the King and the People against the Aristocracy.
    Nah, I don't think so. Mainly because the oligarchs have risen to the position they are in during his reign, so I don't see him changing his spots. Besides, he is an oligarch. How many billions is he worth?

    "Break his chains"! An "alliance of the king (I didn't know Vlad was a king. Vlad the First) and the people against the aristocracy"! Mirhond you have an interesting way with words. Not so original though. That was the form back in Stalin's day. The inhuman cruelties and the brainless screw ups were always blamed on some functionary. 'Comrade Joe would never do that. If only Comrade Joe knew about this, things would change.' said those poor dumb bastards as they were tormented on Joe's orders. You are using the same form.

    Slap is right. Your posts are valuable. We get the unadulterated party line delivered directly.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  11. #211
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    I'm not going to gloat about the pie in the face over at RT but this comment from WaPo struck me as ironic:

    The environment at RT also came in for some punishment: “There’s a form of self-censorship that you learn. Eventually you learn what management likes, what management dislikes. Today, especially with the heightened situation in Crimea, overtly questions are being written, very, very loaded questions. Questions basically to paint the picture and to present the Putin perspective in all of this,” Wahl told Cooper.
    Replace "RT" with "[any mainstream US media]" and "Crimea" with "[any US conflict]" and you could describe American media also. Given the performance of the US media in the run up to the Iraq War, I find the gloating at WaPo very humorous. I'm not going to defend RT but let's not excuse the blatant sycophancy and selective coverage of our own media outlets either. But I have two points about this:

    (1) As far as I know, no US reporter had the courage to resign on air or to forcefully buck the talking points live since, say, the start of the War on Terrorism. That's not because it's RT but I think it might have to do with the kind of people RT recruited in its pursuit to challenge the US media narrative.

    (2) The battle of wills between the Washington and Moscow narratives has become painfully obvious and I think it sheds some light on the nature of information in an environment in which both parties have equal capabilities in broadcasting.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  12. #212
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    Nah, I don't think so. Mainly because the oligarchs have risen to the position they are in during his reign, so I don't see him changing his spots. Besides, he is an oligarch. How many billions is he worth?

    "Break his chains"! An "alliance of the king (I didn't know Vlad was a king. Vlad the First) and the people against the aristocracy"! Mirhond you have an interesting way with words. Not so original though. That was the form back in Stalin's day. The inhuman cruelties and the brainless screw ups were always blamed on some functionary. 'Comrade Joe would never do that. If only Comrade Joe knew about this, things would change.' said those poor dumb bastards as they were tormented on Joe's orders. You are using the same form.

    Slap is right. Your posts are valuable. We get the unadulterated party line delivered directly.
    Looking for enemies, don't you? &

    on Putin again. I see you dislike a historical metaphor for unknown reason, let's reshape it: Putin is already gaining popular support by removing the most odious figures from power, god knows what bulldogs under carpet are involved. Why you so quickly dismiss the option he'd turn against his coterie? Currently he has 40 bln $ but not so much power, he may trade some of the billions for more power. I, personally, give 5% a priori probability on this outcome. So, carefully prepared and thoroughly inplemented Anschluss of Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine as bonus, also boosts his popularity.

    ps. Uncle Joe is irrelevant to the subject, and appeal to emotions is unconstructive.

  13. #213
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    I was about to throw a quick glance at the financial markets, especially at what the Ruble is doing but there have been more important news in this conflict.


    10:47:Speaking in Kiev, Ukraine's interim Economy Minister Pavlo Sheremeta says: "We're not working out what to do if Crimea joins the Russian Federation because we believe it's unconstitutional."
    Breaking News

    The Crimean parliament votes to hold a referendum on 16 March in which voters will be asked on whether the region should join the Russian Federation.

    10:31:Russian President Vladimir Putin is informed about a decision by the Crimean parliament asking him to allow the region to become part of Russia, the Kremlin is reported by AFP to have said.


    10:17:Pro-Russian authorities in Crimea have asked Vladimir Putin to consider a request for the region to join the Russian Federation, which will be put to a referendum on March 16, AFP reports.


    10:11:"The parliament of Crimea has adopted a motion for Crimea to join Russia. It has asked the Russian president and parliament to consider this request," a member of the parliament's leadership, Grigoriy Ioffe, tells AFP.
    10:09:

    Crimea's parliament has unanimously voted in favour of becoming part of Russia, the RIA news agency quoted by Reuters says.
    10:08:

    The pro-Russian mayor of the Crimean port of Sevastopol says the city will not take part in the Ukrainian presidential election scheduled for 25 May, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reports. Alexei Chaly, elected to the newly created position of chairman of Sevatopol's executive committee by a rally on 23 February, is quoted as saying: "Sevastopol refuses to take part in the election by the illegitimate authorities." (BBC Monitoring).
    So a couple of days after the illegal invasion of the Crimea by non-Russian Russian forces which put a autonomous puppet regime in place they duly produced what Putin wanted. It took at least some time to set it up, but it certainly works smoother the the last time when they asked for Putins non-Russian Russian help after the non-Russian Russian forces had already taken over.

    Russian De-escalation at it's best.

    Frau Merkel will be quite amused by the timing:

    10:49 German Chancellor Angela Merkel says a "range of sanctions" will be considered at the EU talks. Germany is believed to want more moderate action than other EU states, and Mrs Merkel says whether sanctions "will need to be implemented" will depend on "how far the diplomatic process" moves forward.
    I'm pretty sure that quite that most Eastern European members of the EU and NATO will feel the urge to say: 'Told you so'.

    Shaun Walker ‏@shaunwalker7 11 Min.

    Now playing "new Crimean national anthem", begins "The island of Crimea is fighting for freedom", continues about Kiev fascists, "#### US"
    You hardly can makes such things. They have already spontaneously written a 'new Crimean national anthem'.

    I wrote about an invasion out of an 'Soviet textbook' before, minus executions, now the occupation follows the Soviet model as well.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-06-2014 at 12:13 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  14. #214
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    So a couple of days after the illegal invasion of the Crimea by non-Russian Russian forces which put a autonomous puppet regime in place they duly produced what Putin wanted. It took at least some time to set it up, but it certainly works smoother the the last time when they asked for Putins non-Russian Russian help after the non-Russian Russian forces had already taken over.

    Russian De-escalation at it's best.
    So, Putin just spared two million people from civil war?

  15. #215
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    So, Putin just spared two million people from civil war?
    There is a fair chance that his friendly occupation will cause exactly that in a Crimea which had it's problem but very little violence.

    I already wrote about the manyfold economic dependance of the Crimea on Ukraine. It will be hard hit by the demand shock from tourists, internal turmoil and friction. As you pretty much can count on a puppet regime under Russian control to miss-manage the economy, see Transnistria etc I doubt that Russia will be able to do even a decent economic job. Apart perhaps from gifts to the selected ones which played their part in the political game.

    Next it would be nice if you stopped using one-liners and at least try to make your case. I sincerly interested in it, as so far I have seen none.

    Shaun Walker ‏@shaunwalker7 15 Min.

    Crimea politician: This now Russian territory. Only legal troops here russian. any troops of a 3rd country will be treated as illegal bands.
    .....

    So the non-Russian Russian troops have not invaded the Crimea, the Crimea moved to them to become Russian. Stupid me.

    P.S: Will the great Putin magnanimously accept the vote of the his puppets that the Crimea is from 'today' Russian or will the great leader wisely cool down his people and insist that they should would for the certain outcome of the the fair and open referendum under the Russian boot.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-06-2014 at 01:30 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  16. #216
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    @davidbdfo: Can you correct my last entry, I really should not jump so quickly between work and a forum post.

    Mao in the little red book:

    Every Communist must grasp the truth: Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.
    After all this back and forth about the referendum a joke sums it up perfectly:

    Shaun Walker ‏@shaunwalker7 52 Min.

    Translated twitter joke via @metkere : Crimean authorities have changed the date of the referendum again. It will now take place yesterday.
    I wonder when we will see the western reporters getting invited to leave the occupied Ukraine. Yesterday we had the abuse and threats against the UN envoy, now it seems that 'very professional, very well-trained' gunmen have barred the OSCE observes the entry into the occupied territory.

    This is interesting, if currently unconfirmed: AFP reports that the 40-strong team from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were prevented by gunmen from entering Crimea to begin their monitoring mission. The agency cites an unnamed “Western diplomatic source”. The source told AFP:

    They are stuck but they are not turning back. They are not being allowed in by two groups of armed people - very professional, very well-trained.
    Last edited by Firn; 03-06-2014 at 02:16 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  17. #217
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Next it would be nice if you stopped using one-liners and at least try to make your case. I sincerly interested in it, as so far I have seen none.
    I don't have any case, actually, I care less about all this mess in Ukraine.
    Well, I you dont like one-liners, I'll made it two-liner:
    Putin spared two million people not only a from civil war, but from the ravages of decaying Ukraninian economy and poor leadership. Reasonable Crimean polititians just calculated net gains/losses and desided to stick to Russia, plain and simple.
    Last edited by mirhond; 03-06-2014 at 02:29 PM.

  18. #218
    Council Member AmericanPride's Avatar
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    It's not just Moscow that has economic obstacles affecting a rational outcome in Crimea. From the National Interest:

    The reforms would allow Ukraine to borrow approximately 60 percent more (from $1 billion to $1.6 billion) from the IMF’s emergency fund. That’s money that Ukraine can use to pay off its debts and avoid a default. In certain scenarios, the IMF makes exceptions and allows countries to access additional funds, as it did with Greece and Ireland after the financial crisis. But there’s no guarantee it would do so with Ukraine. By blocking the passage of the IMF reforms, Republicans are actively making it harder for Ukraine to pay back its loans.

    ...

    “The rest of the world is furious at us,” Ted Truman, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the assistant secretary of the U.S. Treasury for International Affairs from 1998 to 2001, said. “For us to say, ‘We just stiffed you in January’ and now we’re turning around to try to ask you to be part of the team helping Ukraine, we look silly.”

    “It does undermine our credibility and leadership,” he added. “We look like we’re giving with our right hand and taking with our left hand.”
    Of course, there's also the risk that any aid to Ukraine will be stolen anyway:

    As always, it’s about preventing a default during which bondholders and lenders, including numerous Western banks, hedge funds, and other speculators, would finally feel the teeth of a free market and be forced to take losses, big losses, perhaps big enough to sink a lender or two, which would be a welcome sign of housecleaning by market forces. But that won’t be allowed to happen. Instead, taxpayers in other countries will be shanghaied into bailing out these bondholders and lenders, but indirectly, under the guise of bailing out the Ukrainian people.

    ...

    But Danilishin’s idea that aid cannot save the Ukrainian economy because the money will simply be siphoned off by pandemic corruption, and that instead the state should go after the oligarchs who plundered the country? It “can’t be implemented because the ‘revolution’ in Kiev has been partially sponsored by the oligarchs who will not let the state become stronger,” Mândrăşescu explained.
    From an economic point of view, the revolution in Kiev did Ukraine no favors. In fact, it may have sacrificed whatever remaining stability the Ukrainian economy had. But I suppose Ukraine's territory integrity (there is a vote for Crimean secession planned this month) is a small price to pay to bring the Washington Concensus to Russia's doorstep.

    On another subject, DNI made a statement to the effect that they were not "caught off guard" by the Russian intervention because the "decision [to intervene] was made at the last minute". With an open territorial dispute between Ukraine and Moscow (not to mention Russian troops in Crimea), I think the prospects of Ukraine ever entering NATO are at an all-time low. We'll have to wait and see what IMF reforms are proposed and if that's politically feasibility for the new government in Kiev.
    When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot

  19. #219
    Council Member carl's Avatar
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    Mirhond:

    It is good to have a mouthpiece for the siloviki around here. From you we can learn their view of the world and how they want to present themselves to the world. So far we have learned the following.

    1. Putin is viewed as a king, not an elected official who will serve a term of office and go, but a king.

    2. Putin is worth 40 billion dollars but he is one with the people and is struggling against the oligarchs.

    3. Vlad is "kinda beloved leader."

    4. Beatings of the right people are quite funny.

    5. Stalin is irrelevant to the subject. (Tell that to the east and central Europeans who still remember things like the Katyn Forest and the intentional starvation of millions in the Ukraine.)

    6. Getting gobbled up by the bear just improved the lot of the people of the Crimea because they no longer have to be part of the lousy Ukrainian economy and have bad Ukrainian leadership, they get to be part of the Russian economy and have the good leadership of king Vlad.

    Keep 'em coming Mirhond. We learn a lot.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  20. #220
    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Just a quick look at the a center of gravity, the financial markets as AdamG put it.
    See also:
    Ukraine: Goodbye Cold War, hello globalised economy
    The days of the 'iron curtain' are behind us; the West can't intervene in Ukraine due to global economic dynamics.
    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...30187257018569

    See also: http://usacac.army.mil/cac2/call/docs/09-27/toc.asp

    Suggested reading music: http://youtu.be/oVNc8H4uTYs
    Last edited by AdamG; 03-06-2014 at 05:54 PM.
    A scrimmage in a Border Station
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