Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---the first video if one looks and freezes the video on the people wearing black--they are Spetnaz based on the rifles they are carrying.

If you go to the youtube link and then check out the video titled Russian Volunteers in Sibera---it is a slide show---there are several slides where I will bet 300% they are GRU Spetnaz which is really interesting as Putin uses the argument of "illegal" US involvement in Kosovo several times in his Duma speech to justify the legal moves into Crimea.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn--have only seen reported once and then not again the story that the Ukraine sits atop a massive gas dome pocket that can via fracking supply themselves quite well in the coming years---Russia was not interested in developing it thus removing dependence of Ukraine on their gas.

German companies extremely interested in fracking the gas dome.

Poland is showing some strong fracking results and a very large gas dome was discovered in Germany near the Polish border that does not require fracking------just straight drilling so the EU is driving strong on exploration.

Most Americans would never complain again when they get their gas bills if they had to pay German rates which are in Euros----

[OUTLAW 09]

Wow---Putin does not want to carry out sanctions against the US--is it because 1) he really does not have any effective way to retaliate, and or 2) the shot across the Rossija Bank hit the stock market/Rubel, the credit downgrade and the Visa/MC move against four banks might have shown him just where sanctions could go if he continued to provoke.

Again the counter threat finance guys really hit the right bank-it was up to about 1991 the house bank for the KGB-and recent rumors had actually Putin as the owner of the bank-----that is why Putin is not responding.

Plus Russia is now effectively shut out of every major organization that was prestigious for Russia---now he has an image problem once his population realizes that at say a G7 meeting Russia is missing.

Seems he wants to get back to business as usual and is finding it hard to get a dialogue going that does not cause him to lose face---that is why all conversations are going through lower level types.

[kaur]

To Outlaw.

Valery Gerasimov, Russia's chief of the General Staff since November 2012, who was also present at the meeting, had announced last month the formation of a Special Operations Command -- Russia's version of SOCOM. According to Gen. Gerasimov, the new command will include a special forces brigade, a training center, and helicopter and air transportation squadrons.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...=yes&page=full

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QZGNt1O...%3DQZGNt1OtzU0

Eotech seems to be popular on AK's in video + mounted on grenade launcher under this link.

http://www.armamentresearch.com/gm-9...ces-in-crimea/

[OUTLAW 09]

kaur---they say copying is the greatest form of flattery.

[Firn]

Wow---Putin does not want to carry out sanctions against the US--is it because 1) he really does not have any effective way to retaliate, and or 2) the shot across the Rossija Bank hit the stock market/Rubel, the credit downgrade and the Visa/MC move against four banks might have shown him just where sanctions could go if he continued to provoke.

...

Seems he wants to get back to business as usual and is finding it hard to get a dialogue going that does not cause him to lose face---that is why all conversations are going through lower level types.

He got his big cookie and wants to eat it without getting pestered and losing face with his loud munching. I wrote before that economic retaliations from the Russian side are mostly cutting into their own flesh and drive the escalation spiral. So it would be not surprising that Putin might signal that he is ready to forgive those 'escalators' in the West...

In a couple of weeks the Russian press might be full of lamentations about that pesky West who just 'can't move on' and in any case 'we have done nothing wrong'....

[Firn]

A little bit about the Crimean economy and Ukrainian feelings:

Others in Kyiv just find Crimea separation nonsense.

“The peninsula is literally a part of our land, how on Earth can it belong to someone but us,” said Alla Tsarenko, actress from Kyiv. “I never liked Crimea as a resort, there are so many cheaper and better places in the world, but now I wouldn’t go there just so all these soviet babushkas and aggressive sailors would understand what are they without Ukraine,” she says and explains that Crimea depend on Ukraine even when it comes to drinking water.

Those in the east of the country also said they would boycott Crimea from now and on. “It is just dangerous to go there anytime soon because of their crazy self-defense or whatever they call the guys who kidnap people and Russian militants, besides that very difficult morally,” said Maria Prokopenko, a student from Donetsk.

Oleksandra Serhienko, a mother of two children and a school teacher, from Zaporizhzhya said she won’t miss Crimea. “I just want to evacuate our militants and normal people and then surround the peninsula the high fence and let all the idiots with the Russian flags live there happily,” she said.

Clausewitz stated that in a conflict the emotional element is most fed/part of 'the people'. I don't know if those emotions are strong and deep enought to sustain under the current circumstances armed resistance against further invasions but they should overall makes sure that not much Ukrainian tourist money gets spend in the Crimea for the time being.

[carl]

Curmudgeon:

The interest the US has in this is in preventing the invasion and acquisition through force of a country's territory by an aggressive police state or by anybody else. Given the situation in the world today with Red China feeling peckish and various jihadis openly proclaiming they want to set up caliphates whenever and wherever they can I figure it is important to demonstrate that we look with disfavor upon this kind of thing.

No historical situation is directly analogous to what happened in the past but rather than Sudetenland, I look toward the occupation of the Rhineland. That was the first big failure of nerve.

Oh I don't know if military action isn't a quick go to option. I think it is if Ivan moves into the rest of Ukraine. Unconventional Warfare is military action and wouldn't require a single US soldier to set foot in Ukraine.

We have the money to pay for increased military expenditure. It is well within the capacity of the economy to handle that. Do we have the will? I don't know.

If it is a choice between the F-22 and the A-10, all you have to do is look at the history of air warfare since 1910 or so. When you do your first impulse will be to get on the phone to the Coca Cola Bottling Company and tell them to head over to the A-10 bases and pick up their scrap aluminum cheap, especially in this situation. The very first task of an air force is to keep enemy aircraft off your back. The F-22 can do that. The A-10 can't.

I get tired of hearing how war weary the Americans are. I think that is nonsense. What we are tired of are losing efforts, efforts that are conducted so incompetently as to be stupid and border on criminally negligent. That is what we are tired of. The Americans aren't the cognoscenti inside the beltway and in the media. They have convinced themselves that the rest of us have no heart. They are wrong. They should look in the mirror.

[Dayuhan]

Right now we are ill prepared. The EU is dependent on Russia for energy. That is not going to change.

Actually that can change, though not instantly... if the Europeans are willing to invest time and money in changing it.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Actually that can change, though not instantly... if the Europeans are willing to invest time and money in changing it.

But that just feeds into the idea that this is not a fight we are going to win today, and not alone.

If we have finally realized that Russia under Putin, or his progeny, pose a threat to its neighbors, then we need to develop a long term plan to isolate Russia.

We are not going to win by a few sanctions, but we can determine vulnerabilities. We must also not push to fast. Like the old Russian Bear himself, who took Crimea, but not all of the Ukraine (yet), we must take small steps that are not, in and of themselves, enough to "poke the bear", but sufficient to weaken him in the long run.

[carl]

We are not going to win by a few sanctions, but we can determine vulnerabilities. We must also not push to fast. Like the old Russian Bear himself, who took Crimea, but not all of the Ukraine (yet), we must take small steps that are not, in and of themselves, enough to "poke the bear", but sufficient to weaken him in the long run.

If we are afraid to poke the bear, we've lost. Going with that puts everything in his hands because he is the one who determines what is a discernible poke or not. This bear ain't no grizzly in the prime of life. This is a sickly weak thing with a mean glint in its eye and it is looking to feed. We let it and it will get stronger.

[TheCurmudgeon]

If we are afraid to poke the bear, we've lost. Going with that puts everything in his hands because he is the one who determines what is a discernible poke or not. This bear ain't no grizzly in the prime of life. This is a sickly weak thing with a mean glint in its eye and it is looking to feed. We let it and it will get stronger.

I am not afraid to poke the bear, I just want to do it when and where it serves my purpose. Because it is not just the bear I have to consider.

Right now the EU is tied to Russia by a Natural Gas pipeline that they are dependent on. That is an oversimplification, but it is not inaccurate. We are not strengthening alliances by pushing too fast now.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. Lets set the conditions. Because I don't just want to poke the bear, I want to chain him to a stake and let the pit bulls loose on him. That will take some time, but it can be done.

Besides, the last time we went head to head the Soviet Union was an economy unto itself. Economic sanctions were not really an option. Which also means that Putin is not well versed in their capabilities. They might be much more potent than expected, but they will not contain the bear. For that we will need fences, and they are not in place yet.

[carl]

I am not afraid to poke the bear, I just want to do it when and where it serves my purpose. Because it is not just the bear I have to consider.

Right now the EU is tied to Russia by a Natural Gas pipeline that they are dependent on. That is an oversimplification, but it is not inaccurate. We are not strengthening alliances by pushing to fast now.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. Lets set the conditions. Because I don't just want to poke the bear, I want to chain him to a stake and let the pit bulls loose on him. That will take some time, but it can be done.

Besides, the last time we went head to head the Soviet Union was an economy unto itself. Economic sanctions were not really an option. Which also means that Putin is not well versed in their capabilities. They might be much more potent than expected, but they will not contain the bear. For that we will need fences, and they are not in place yet.

Nicely said.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Curmudgeon:If it is a choice between the F-22 and the A-10, all you have to do is look at the history of air warfare since 1910 or so. When you do your first impulse will be to get on the phone to the Coca Cola Bottling Company and tell them to head over to the A-10 bases and pick up their scrap aluminum cheap, especially in this situation. The very first task of an air force is to keep enemy aircraft off your back. The F-22 can do that. The A-10 can't.

But we have the capability to control the sky with existing aircraft. We don't need something new. The A-10 is a long range tank killer. Like a Longbow, but with more range and speed. That is why I like it. An F22 can't provide that kind of capability, at least not at the same price. And price matters.

I get tired of hearing how war weary the Americans are. I think that is nonsense. What we are tired of are losing efforts, efforts that are conducted so incompetently as to be stupid and border on criminally negligent. That is what we are tired of. The Americans aren't the cognoscenti inside the beltway and in the media. They have convinced themselves that the rest of us have no heart. They are wrong. They should look in the mirror.

I think you are wrong. Even when we are winning, we lose interest. If the US public had actually been taxed to pay for Iraq and Afghanistan we would have been out five years ago. We like to brag, but we will not sacrifice our nice car, vacations, and blinge to pay for those bragging rights. The Russian threat is not at our front door, they are not even on our block. The extreme right wing are protectionist. I will take bets no one is going to push this to open conflict ... except SEN McCain.

[JMA]

If we have finally realized that Russia under Putin, or his progeny, pose a threat to its neighbors, then we need to develop a long term plan to isolate Russia.

What we are experiencing right now is the result of a massive and probably unprecedented miscalculation.

Russia has been stiring for years which has escaped the attention and action of US administrations (not saying the intel people missed it but the politicians and senior military went to sleep at the wheel).

Germany miscalculated by embracing a level of dependency on energy imports from Russia (as did other EU countries).

The mess has now to be cleaned up.

Again there will be no consequences for those who led the US and the EU into this mess.

We just need to hope that few lives of good young men will be lost in the process.

[JMA]

From the Blog an open letter:

Open Letter to President Obama

[OUTLAW 09]

TC wrote the following--"This is a marathon, not a sprint"

I would step back and call it a walk because Putin is going to be there for awhile yet.

Putin outside of the Crimea has gained what?

1. isolation from the prestigious organizations that he himself strived to join in order to add to the allure of greater Russia
2. he has in effect done something the Europeans have not been able to do themselves---discuss openly their dependence of his oil and gas and has pushed them to find rather fast new sources and to share among themselves
3. he will inadvertently push the US Army and DoD away from COIN finally and back to force on force for the next 15 years
4. Russia will take a serious economical hit and delay even further their own internal development
5. finally Russian oligarchs understand they an be reached out to and touched as much of their wealth is stole, ripped off black money from the Russian population
6. Crimea will economically spiral down
7. we will modernize our outdated nuclear weapons and nuclear forces
8. we will be forced if not already to reexamine our soft power concepts and single dependence on diplomacy
9. strangely both US political parties now have a "common enemy"
10. along side NATO the EU will start it's own military force creation in addition to what it already has as the OCSE is being blocked by Russia as a tool for EU external politics
11. he has driven the Ukraine closer not further away from the EU and the West
12. and more critically he has been shown that economically Russian is not a superpower

And the list will go on and on---

So really what has he achieved outside of the illusion of recreating the old dream of a greater Soviet Union?

So now he is attempting to slow down the changing US/EU attitudes, thinking, and military changes that he started IMO as he understands in fact he has started round two of the Cold War and he fully understands Russia lost the first round due to economics which is now staring him again in the
face. He is not a fool as he fully understands that the former Soviet Union while a nuclear power, while a political and military power literally collapsed as an economical power even with oil and gas.

If one watched --not sure what is being shown in the States--the two or three video footages of Putin in his Security Council meeting and at another location he looks tired ---he definitely does not have the look of a "winner" that he had during his Duma appearance.

The move against the Rossija Bank by the counter threat finance guys put a real damper of his "winner" looks---that was a serious shot at his politics regardless of what US pundits make of the WH sanction moves.

A few more of those shots targeting other banks is enough to actually tip the Russian economy as it is not the economy of pre 2009.

The move against the Rossija Bank was a WH move that both surprised me and tends to make me finally think "they get it" and the much criticized threat of "having a cost" was in fact well thought through.

[JMA]

The question has to be asked... what is the aim?

It appears that the US and the EU have rolled over on the matter of Crimean sovereignty in that the annexation (call it what you will) by Russia has been accepted.

Does not matter about banks this and banks that it does not remove the fact that the Russians have made another step forward and the opposition (if you can call it that) from the US and EU has failed to prevent it.

So what do we have? A US and EU who would be happy if Russia - for the moment at least - stopped trying to push beyond Crimea, they can keep Crimea?

TC wrote the following--"This is a marathon, not a sprint"

I would step back and call it a walk because Putin is going to be there for awhile yet.

Putin outside of the Crimea has gained what?

[snip]

[carl]

But we have the capability to control the sky with existing aircraft. We don't need something new. The A-10 is a long range tank killer. Like a Longbow, but with more range and speed. That is why I like it. An F22 can't provide that kind of capability, at least not at the same price. And price matters.

If you mean by existing airplanes the F-22, you are right to a limited extent. We only have about 180 of the things and the last one rolled off the line in 2009 I believe. The production line is closed and has been for years. That is a big thing in major league air fighting because you will lose airplanes that have to be replaced. With no production line you can't do it.

Obviously the F-22 can't be an A-10 because it wasn't designed to be an A-10. But it could at least harry some tanks. The A-10 can't do anything air to air. Nothing. You lose air to air superiority and your A-10s are gone.

We forget how important we air superiority is because we have had it mostly our own way since 1944 and completely our own way since the early 80s. That result was because of a lot of hard work and money expended. The airplanes, the tools, that allowed that didn't come about by accident.

One thing that should be remembered is the current fleet, excepting a very few aircraft is old, very old. A-10s avg age over 32 years. F-15C avg age over 29 years. Old airplanes break a lot and are hard to keep in the sky. Gates canceled further production of the F-22 in favor of the little light bomber that never will, the F-35, and now the Russians are making trouble and the J-20 is on sked. This is a topic for another thread but the US military is looking at big big trouble in airplanes in the next decade and two.

http://www.uswarplanes.net/f15.html

http://www.airforcetimes.com/article...erworked-fleet

I think you are wrong. Even when we are winning, we lose interest. If the US public had actually been taxed to pay for Iraq and Afghanistan we would have been out five years ago. We like to brag, but we will not sacrifice our nice car, vacations, and blinge to pay for those bragging rights. The Russian threat is not at our front door, they are not even on our block. The extreme right wing are protectionist. I will take bets no one is going to push this to open conflict ... except SEN McCain.

A lot of military guys express that. I think it is wrong and (forgive me God for I am about to get in trouble) soreheaded. In my opinion the flyover people are eager to help and will sacrifice, do whatever it takes; but they have to be asked, we are waiting to be asked. We always have been. Look at all the little things that people do spontaneously, the care packages addressed to whomever, the letters to anybody, the airline people who try to honor soldiers on their own. We are ready and will be. But the leadership class asks us to do nothing.

That is the problem, the leadership class. The guys who brought us cooperation with the Pak Army/ISI for a decade. The guys who dither and dither and like JMA says, never have to pay a price for their lethal folly.

[carl]

Outlaw 09:

Your list is convincing if, IF we keep up the scare so to speak. If all those things go back to the way they were in a year he will have lost nothing.

We will see how we do. Maybe Angela will channel Maggie and tell Barry not to go wobbly on her or maybe Barry and Angela will tell each other how there are no good choices and we will just have to grow up and accept things that won't be so bad anyway.

We can hope.