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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    The extreme right wing are protectionist. I will take bets no one is going to push this to open conflict ... except SEN McCain.
    This is the second ill-informed comment about McCain made recently.

    I am too far from internal US politics to get emotional about it all.

    McCain however is getting a bum wrap here.

    Go back to the 2008 election campaign:

    John McCain - Council on Foreign Relations

    U.S. Policy toward Russia

    Sen. McCain (R-AZ) has called for a new approach to what he called a "revanchist" Russia. McCain said in a September 2008 presidential debate that Russia has "become a nation fueled by petro-dollars that is basically a KGB apparatchik-run government." In a November 2007 Foreign Affairs article, McCain advocated Russian exclusion from the G-8, and said the West should send a message to Russia that NATO "is indivisible and that the organization's doors remain open to all democracies committed to the defense of freedom." He also said the United States should promote democracy in Russia.

    In an October 2007 Republican debate, McCain expressed support for President Bush's plan to build a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. "I don't care what [Putin's] objections are to it," he said.

    McCain called Russia's March 2008 election a sign that Russia has taken "yet another step away from democracy." He also said it was "a tragedy of history" that the Russian people were "again deprived of the opportunity to choose their leaders in a free and open contest."

    In August 2008, McCain condemned Russia's military operations in Georgia, and said Russia should "immediately and unconditionally" withdraw from the region. He also emphasized the need for a "truly independent and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia."
    If you had listened to him back then things may well be different today and there would probably not be this crisis today.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    The extreme right wing are protectionist.
    I think you mean isolationist.

    ('Extreme' this or that is almost meaningless. It is just a focus group tested word appended to anybody or thing not liked and intended to discredit.)
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    This was quoted over on War on the Rocks and fits to Putin's argument of why he is legally right to take Crimea.

    “One should remember the instruction of Comrade Stalin, that there are such periods, such times in the life of society and our individual lives, when laws turn out to be obsolete and we have to put them aside.”

    These two items from Interfax today are actually quite interesting as we have talked about them here as well.

    19:30

    Ukrainian border service shuts exit from Crimea - Crimea officials

    After the Ukraine left the CIS they can now place customs of Russian products twice---once on the Russian border and again on the Crimea border shows the Ukraine is now tightening up their crossing points and surprised the Russians with the move otherwise Interfax would not be mentioning it.

    19:05

    Crimea has ample supply of drinking water - Russian ministry

    Somehow they failed to mention just how much of it comes from the Ukraine---surprised they mentioned this as it is a center of gravity issue for the long term stability of the Crimea unless Russia moves into the southern portion of the Ukraine to secure supplies.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2014 at 04:55 PM.

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    One the better disinformation attempts by the Russian Foreign Ministry in the last couple of days.

    “One should remember the instruction of Comrade Stalin, that there are such periods, such times in the life of society and our individual lives, when laws turn out to be obsolete and we have to put them aside.”

    It is interesting to watch how Russia is spinning everything to grant legal status to their annexation of the Crimea---they are attempting to “sell” to their population and the world that the current OCSE mission to the Ukraine that they “approved” is only in the Ukraine to seal the “new political-legal realities” ie the Ukraine now exists without the Crimea.

    Shortly after the Russian Foreign Ministry released theirs statement via Interfax the German Foreign Ministry immediately called it in polite diplomatic terms as being “basically misleading (alluding between the lines as not being true)”.

    ("Die Erklärung des russischen Außenministeriums ist diesbezüglich irreführend.")

    Interfax:
    12:17
    MOSCOW HOPES THAT OSCE MISSION'S WORK WILL HELP OVERCOME INTERNAL UKRAINIAN CRISIS, STOP RAMPANT NATIONALISTIC BANDITRY - RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
    12:15
    OSCE MISSION'S MANDATE IN UKRAINE REFLECTS NEW POLITICAL-LEGAL REALITIES, DOES NOT APPLY TO CRIMEA AND SEVASTOPOL, WHICH ARE NOW PART OF RUSSIA - FOREIGN MINISTRY

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    “One should remember the instruction of Comrade Stalin, that there are such periods, such times in the life of society and our individual lives, when laws turn out to be obsolete and we have to put them aside.”
    This must be for domestic consumption. Even then who do they think gives a .... what 'comrade' stalin said?

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    Council Member TheCurmudgeon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    I think you mean isolationist.

    ('Extreme' this or that is almost meaningless. It is just a focus group tested word appended to anybody or thing not liked and intended to discredit.)
    You are correct, I meant Isolationist ... and I will simplify my "extreme"comment by stating the TEA party and the Libertarians. Both see our defense and foriegn aide expenditures as extreme and unnecessary.

    I try to get a comment in between other commitments and sometimes it shows.
    Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 03-22-2014 at 06:57 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    You are correct, I meant Isolationist ... and I will simplify my "extreme"comment by stating the TEA party and the Libertarians. Both see our defense and foriegn aide expenditures as extreme and unnecessary.

    I try to get a comment in between other commitments and sometimes it shows.
    Have you ever been to a tea party rally?

    Viewing foreign aid as not needed is probably the most common view of foreign aid in the US, not the province of any particular group.

    I think your view of anything under tea party is quite skewed. The primary focus is domestic, making sure the Constitution is followed closely. There isn't much talk about military at all. When there is, since most of that group hold Reagan up high, it is too support a strong military.

    You gotta get out of range of the dark side of the Force and move farther away from the beltway, or at least wear a garlic garland or something.
    Last edited by carl; 03-22-2014 at 07:10 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    One thing that should be remembered is the current fleet, excepting a very few aircraft is old, very old. A-10s avg age over 32 years. F-15C avg age over 29 years. Old airplanes break a lot and are hard to keep in the sky. Gates canceled further production of the F-22 in favor of the little light bomber that never will, the F-35, and now the Russians are making trouble and the J-20 is on sked. This is a topic for another thread but the US military is looking at big big trouble in airplanes in the next decade and two.
    But if the F-15C is still a adequate, if not superior plane, why not just run another production of them with upgraded avionics and weapons. Why spend billions developing another manned jet when the future of air-power is probably in autonomous drones that can maneuver in ways that would kill a human pilot. But you are correct, this is for another thread




    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    A lot of military guys express that. I think it is wrong and (forgive me God for I am about to get in trouble) soreheaded. In my opinion the flyover people are eager to help and will sacrifice, do whatever it takes; but they have to be asked, we are waiting to be asked. We always have been. Look at all the little things that people do spontaneously, the care packages addressed to whomever, the letters to anybody, the airline people who try to honor soldiers on their own. We are ready and will be. But the leadership class asks us to do nothing.

    That is the problem, the leadership class. The guys who brought us cooperation with the Pak Army/ISI for a decade. The guys who dither and dither and like JMA says, never have to pay a price for their lethal folly.
    My reason for thinking this has to do with me research on political legitimacy and human values. American's are generally individualists who are not bound by any obligation to the common good - in their minds the government serves the people, the people do not serve the government. So, without a direct threat to them (like 9/11) they are not apt to support a war footing. Because this value based individualist attitude is almost religious, intervention in the affairs of another country to support democratic revolutions - fellow individualists - is the one thing they will support. If the neo-cold-war is couched in those terms they MAY support it, but I doubt it at the moment.

    Also, this has little to do with the leadership. That is another fallacy individualists like to believe in, that people follow leaders. They do, but only if leaders demonstrate the values the people find important. SEN McCain would be a great president if we were afraid and inclined more towards communal values. He embodies those values with his time as a POW never breaking and his years of service. But that is not what the people want now. So I don't think you will get any leader to take us to war now.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    But if the F-15C is still a adequate, if not superior plane, why not just run another production of them with upgraded avionics and weapons. Why spend billions developing another manned jet when the future of air-power is probably in autonomous drones that can maneuver in ways that would kill a human pilot. But you are correct, this is for another thread
    You had better be a darn good judge of what the other guy can do and how things will shake out when the balloon goes up if adequate is all that will satisfy you. The F-15C may or may not be adequate against the newest Sukhois, we don't know. It won't be adequate against the J-20. You want to have something you know will be superior. That is what prompted the development of the F-15 in the first place, determination to field something that would be very superior. And it was...then.

    Why not go back a few years and keep the F-22 line open and add about 200 to the fleet? All that would have entailed were production costs. All the R&D was already spent. But we didn't. And now we are in trouble.

    Drones. Curmudgeon, you gotta get away from the Beltway. Drones are radio controlled airplanes. No matter how you gussy it up that is what they are. A radio signal gets to the computer via an antenna and away it goes. Now are you gonna bet your life and my life and those 21 year old NASCAR fans that only our radio signals are going to go to that drone's computer? I'm not. Until you can guarantee that and until you can guarantee that drone can look out the window and then reference a map to see where it is when the GPS goes down, there will be a need for men in the airplanes.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    My reason for thinking this has to do with me research on political legitimacy and human values. American's are generally individualists who are not bound by any obligation to the common good - in their minds the government serves the people, the people do not serve the government. So, without a direct threat to them (like 9/11) they are not apt to support a war footing. Because this value based individualist attitude is almost religious, intervention in the affairs of another country to support democratic revolutions - fellow individualists - is the one thing they will support. If the neo-cold-war is couched in those terms they MAY support it, but I doubt it at the moment.
    You missed something that Toqueville did not. Yanks are joiners. Yanks have a great affinity for cooperation without the need for external direction. Individuals have right that God gave them and those can't be taken away but we also recognize that we all have to cooperate. A good thing to look at in that respect are traffic laws and compliance. If people didn't yield for the common good you would have Kinshasa.

    You have fundamentally misapprehended the character of your countrymen if you think Americans are not bound by an obligation to the common good. And this statement "...in their minds the government serves the people, the people do not serve the government" is a little scary if I get the implication right.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Also, this has little to do with the leadership. That is another fallacy individualists like to believe in, that people follow leaders. They do, but only if leaders demonstrate the values the people find important. SEN McCain would be a great president if we were afraid and inclined more towards communal values. He embodies those values with his time as a POW never breaking and his years of service. But that is not what the people want now. So I don't think you will get any leader to take us to war now.
    No, you're wrong. People follow leaders in an organization. We have organized ourselves into a representative republic. We have delegated the authority to lead in overseas endeavours to others. If they don't, we have to wait until the next election. You have almost certainly been in a unit with a spineless do nothing leader. You didn't take over, you put up with it until another, better leader took over or you left the outfit.
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    Default Two fallen - comrades at the end

    The headline and sub-title:
    Ukraine's unlikeliest funeral: the only two foes to die in Russia's Crimea takeover are mourned together

    Tributes to Ukrainian soldier and pro-Russian self-defence volunteer killed on opposite sides of same bloody incident
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-together.html
    davidbfpo

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    kaur-----if you want a really good current photo of spetnaz with their equipment and weapons--this is a good one---seems that they are using about 10-12 man teams similar to the US Army SF.



    http://cdn4.spiegel.de/images/image-...eryV9-knhc.jpg
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2014 at 08:23 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheCurmudgeon View Post
    Also, this has little to do with the leadership. That is another fallacy individualists like to believe in, that people follow leaders. They do, but only if leaders demonstrate the values the people find important. SEN McCain would be a great president if we were afraid and inclined more towards communal values. He embodies those values with his time as a POW never breaking and his years of service. But that is not what the people want now. So I don't think you will get any leader to take us to war now.
    With respect you are ducking the issue.

    The issue is that McCain - and later Romney - got the Russian threat right while Obama mocked them as cold war relics. The bottom line is Obama was wrong and rather than hold him to account you are fudging the issue.

    Very poor political spin about someone 'to take us to war now.'

    The point is simple McCain read the Russians correctly and Obama failed. Try to live with this.

    If there is going to be a war it is because Obama misread the situation and opened the door for Russia to make a move (this started with Bush of course in Georgia). Agreed though if there is to be a war get rid of Obama/Biden and get some competence into the WH (and maybe purge the senior military leadership at the same time).

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    There have been reports coming out of the US about concerns on the ongoing Russian military exercises along the Ukrainian border--but always accompanying the reports is the alluded to comments that they do not appear to be massing for an actual invasion because the necessary supplies needed for a large operation are apparently not being seen by US intelligence.

    This cropped up today in the German media quoting Scandinavian intelligence sources who cannot be called raving warmongers stated that the Russian Army has built up substantial military supplies that would be needed for an actual invasion operation along the Ukrainian border ---equipment and supplies that are not needed normally for a field exercise-- and that in their opinion all necessary units and supplies needed for a full scale move into the Ukraine would be in place by this Sunday. The Scandinavians have also stated that the field exercises were in fact invasion practice runs towards the West ie the Ukraine.

    Interesting ---who is correct ---reports out of the US--yes there are exercises, but no apparent move towards actual invasion or the Scandinavians who say everything is in place with units, equipment and needed operational supplies effective tomorrow?

    "Eine Invasion Richtung Westen hatten russische Militaers seit Tagen in einem Manver geuebt. Skandinavier, die keineswegs zu den Scharfmachern mit Blick auf Russland gehoeren, berichteten von Geheimdiensterkenntnissen, wonach Russland Nachschub fuer eine groessre Offensive an der Grenze bereitstelle. Fuer ein Manoever braucht man die nicht. Bis Sonntag sei der Aufmarsch abgeschlossen."
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-22-2014 at 09:21 PM.

  14. #534
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Interesting ---who is correct ---reports out of the US--yes there are exercises, but no apparent move towards actual invasion or the Scandinavians who say everything is in place with units, equipment and needed operational supplies effective tomorrow?
    If you are going to answer that question some other questions need to be asked first. Who is closer and probably have superior human sources? Who is subject to the baleful influence of White House and corrupt US military multi-star spinmeisters and who is not?

    I put more faith in the Scandinavians.
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    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    You missed something that Toqueville did not. Yanks are joiners. Yanks have a great affinity for cooperation without the need for external direction. Individuals have right that God gave them and those can't be taken away but we also recognize that we all have to cooperate. A good thing to look at in that respect are traffic laws and compliance. If people didn't yield for the common good you would have Kinshasa.

    You have fundamentally misapprehended the character of your countrymen if you think Americans are not bound by an obligation to the common good. And this statement "...in their minds the government serves the people, the people do not serve the government" is a little scary if I get the implication right.
    The Yanks that Tocqueville observed bear little resemblance to the Americans of today. I would suspect that his appraisal of Americans would be significantly different if he saw us today. Birth control, legalized abortion, gay marriage, all things that exist now that did not then. Just in the last 50 years, since the transition from the Greatest generation, Americans have changed their view on what government is and should do. Lets look at the common good. Taxation supports the common good, but Americans don't want to pay taxes. We make a joke out of cheating on them. No one will support an obligation of civil duty (one year working for the good of the nation), let alone a draft.

    Further, we continue to base our political science on moral philosophy rather than modern psychology. We look to Hobbes and Tocqueville for the nature of American Democracy when they lived in a world most American's to today would find repulsive. But more important they based their philosophy on the world as they saw it. If one looks to modern psychology you will find a different explanation for why things are as they are. But this too, is for another thread.


    Quote Originally Posted by carl View Post
    No, you're wrong. People follow leaders in an organization. We have organized ourselves into a representative republic. We have delegated the authority to lead in overseas endeavours to others. If they don't, we have to wait until the next election. You have almost certainly been in a unit with a spineless do nothing leader. You didn't take over, you put up with it until another, better leader took over or you left the outfit.
    I don't disagree that people follow leaders, but they follow leaders who they think believe in the same things they do, ones with the same values, ones who they see as legitimate. Hitler came to power because Germany was rejecting the republic and longed for a past where they were a dominant force in Europe. Putin is riding a similar wave. Democracy promised much but did not deliver. Russians remember the illusion of the past when they were a superpower. These are both repudiations of the individualist ideal and movement to the communal ideal.

    A leader can provide direction for an organization, but in most cases, he cannot long take them where they don't want to go. That is even more true in a democratic government.
    Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 03-22-2014 at 11:26 PM.
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    Thanks Outlaw for the pic. Here is the video how council of ministers of Crimea was attacked 27.02 http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Sr1wxqt_3So

    Compare the gear.
    Last edited by kaur; 03-23-2014 at 12:39 AM.

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    kaur---size of the team is the important point---again ten.

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    One of the main arguments by Russia has been that NATO is on their doorstep and they feel betrayed that has occurred.

    It has become a Russian mantra since Crimea and it came through in a number of US pundits as well in their remarks on Crimea--that the Crimea is a sphere of influence thing--I guess is one repeats it enough times even disinformation becomes real.

    Yesterdays OCSE meeting shot down the Russian NATO excuse in front of all OCSE members to heck and back.

    Rasmussen pointedly asked the Russian OCSE Ambassador if in fact the Russians signed the 1999 OCSE ageements which in a single sentence stated that every signatory had the right with right emphasized to join whatever organization and or block they wanted to---Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and K'stan signed the agreements.

    The implied emphasis was that everyone was free to do whatever they are a member of the OCSE thought best for their country as that was the implied understanding by NATO and the EU.

    After a thoughtful moment on the Ambassador's part he then in typical Russian mindset fashion stated BUT no one was to interfere inside a country---which by the way upon reading the OCSE document it does not state that anywhere.

    So did he in fact violate his own statement when Russia moved into the Crimea and has Russian constantly served up disinformation on the "right of every OCSE member to join whatever group/block they want to" ie either the EU or in fact NATO or even rejoin Russia.

    Rasmussen also pointedly asked is it OK for then Georgia to join NATO---answer we will have to think about that---implied by Rasmussen---yes they can based on OCSE Russian signed agreements as they signed the agreements.

    A remarkable exchange between NATO and a Russian Ambassador and it goes to the previous Stalin comment I have posted.

    This is exactly what Russia is doing---following Stalin to the bitter end even if in the 21st century--meaning pick and choose what you want and do not want to argue your case even if you signed the documents---that is the lesson that the US/WH does not understand and that is not a neocon thinking point of view ---it is Russian reality at its' best and it has been since the Czarist days.

    “One should remember the instruction of Comrade Stalin, that there are such periods, such times in the life of society and our individual lives, when laws turn out to be obsolete and we have to put them aside.”

    So is Stalin implying that their signed OCSE agreements have no bearing which if one looks at what Russia/Putin is currently doing one might in fact then assume we are truly in Cold War version 2---by the way they have never come into compliance with the last series of OCSE agreements--even during the Bush years. Now add in the recent violation of the INF on their newly developed land launched nuclear cruise missile.

    When we entered into a 13 year old war and totally lost focus on anything other than jihadi's---the Russians did not.

    So the question that the US/NATO/EU and the WH should be asking---can anything that Russia utters actually be trusted ie Syria, Iran, NK, invasion of the Ukraine proper?

    And why since their own actions tell a different story?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 03-23-2014 at 07:47 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    From the Blog an open letter:

    Open Letter to President Obama
    For the record I posted the following response on the blog in response to comments from 'liberals and leftists'.

    by Mark Adams | March 23, 2014 - 4:36am

    Watching the discussions on Ukraine here (SWC) and elsewhere it appears it is being driven in the US by local party political / ideological positions. This is regrettable but probably what Putin anticipated.

    Those responding to the invasion of Crimea and its annexation by Russia would be forgiven for thinking was a pretty serious matter.

    What to do about it?

    From far away it appears that the 'left wing' of US politics - democrats and liberals - are happy to let Crimea go and the message to Russia is - take one small bite at a time with suitable periods in between - and we will let you do what you want as we don't care / don't have the stomach for a confrontation over this.

    While the 'right wing' the Republicans are saying - we told you so (which they did, McCian, Palin, Romney) - and the leftists (Democrats and liberals) screwed it up now the US and the EU have a crisis to deal with.

    It is intellectuallly immature to start pointing fingers those who are putting their hands up to provide a solution to a problem of the Obama administaration's making.

    The Ukrainians (and others) are still to learn the sad truth that 'with a friend / ally like the US who needs enemies'.

    In the meantime someone has to fix the mess created by the Obama administration... and it is not going to be the Obama / Biden circus.

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    In the meantime someone has to fix the mess created by the Obama administration
    "Created by the Obama administration" seems a conclusion that would require some supporting evidence or logic. The Obama administration's handling of the situation can certainly be criticized, as can the reactions on the European side, but it seems a bit of a stretch to accuse the Obama administration of creating the situation.
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