Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[davidbfpo]

From The Daily Beast:

The slaughter of 53 protesters in the Maidan on February 20 changed history. Now, exclusive photographs show what really happened.....Most of the photographs accompanying this article were taken on February 20, and they appear to reveal the truth about who carried out the shootings in Independence Square on that day—a fateful one for both Ukraine and for Europe, which suddenly witnessed the continent’s worst political violence of the 21st century. The pictures shared exclusively with The Daily Beast show members of a crack anti-terrorist unit known as the Alfa Team in the courtyard of the headquarters of Ukraine’s feared state security service, the SBU, preparing themselves for battle.

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...s-in-kiev.html

There are only ten photos, minus any context of the building, but an early post linked to a long YouTube clip of armed men with such armbands IIRC.

Not sure if I'd be 100% certain the Ukrainian Alfa (Alpha?) were Russian-trained. The Ukraine has been independent for over twenty years and capable of training its own CT unit.

[JMA]

From The Daily Beast:

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...s-in-kiev.html

There are only ten photos, minus any context of the building, but an early post linked to a long YouTube clip of armed men with such armbands IIRC.

Not sure if I'd be 100% certain the Ukrainian Alfa (Alpha?) were Russian-trained. The Ukraine has been independent for over twenty years and capable of training its own CT unit.

David, the US and the Brits always offer to train special forces and Presidential Guards probably more as a means to gain intel of key members and collect general intel on capabilities etc than anything else. No doubt the Russians play the same game.

[carl]

From The Daily Beast:

Link:http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...s-in-kiev.html

There are only ten photos, minus any context of the building, but an early post linked to a long YouTube clip of armed men with such armbands IIRC.

Not sure if I'd be 100% certain the Ukrainian Alfa (Alpha?) were Russian-trained. The Ukraine has been independent for over twenty years and capable of training its own CT unit.

All those easily identifiable faces. I wonder how many of those guys are still in Ukraine.

[Dayuhan]

Dayuhan---while you might argue that nationalism is just nationalism and there is really no difference as is argued by some historians/political science professors others might break nationalism into the following categories

As I said, the nationalist impulse can manifest itself in different ways in different circumstances.

What is interesting is that one could use the Putin Doctrine to argue say in San Antonia Texas that the Mexican government needs to establish an armed presence in San Antonio to "defend the Spanish speaking people" from having to learn English in American schools. See just how dangerous this doctrine can be if it is allowed to become political reality anywhere in the world.

I suppose the Chinese could also apply it to the rapidly growing number of Chinese nationals in Eastern Siberia as well.

So again Dyauhan just how one splits the coffee bean just means your banana might in fact be my apple depending on how one defines the specific piece of fruit one is looking at.

Yes, that's always the case. What you're not explaining is how any of this supports or explains your assumptions regarding threat in the current circumstances.

Have never been one for defining things in a strict fashion as do many professors, historians, or even bloggers---have been more for attempting to define it based on the environment where it is occurring and how it is "seen".

It's difficult to have a conversation without some sort of functioninh consensus on what the terms in play mean.

Dayuhan---if we take this from the CEPA Report 35 and read through it would we find elements of Russian nationalism or in much of what I write about which is really Russian imperialism on two different levels one driven by the population the other driven by elites.

I don't see "elements of Russian Nationalism" there, just another fairly breathless assessment of impending doom.

You could say that current events represent a challenge to the "post-Cold War territorial settlement", or you could say that it exposed certain weaknesses in that settlement, namely the stranding of Russian enclaves in non-Russian nations. As we see so often in Africa, when national boundaries don't line up with ethnic divisions, there's often trouble. There are different ways to deal with that. Sometimes people move: hundreds of thousands of ethnic Russians have moved out of the "'Stans", particularly Kazakhstan, and back to Russia since the collapse of the USSR. Sometimes the solution may be adjusting a border. It does not seem an unimaginable thing.

Who says nationalism is not alive and well in Russia?

I don't know, is anybody saying that?

[OUTLAW 09]

Dayuhan---who taught you that taking sentence by sentence making your own comments is a form of dialogue?

IMHO this is what the leftist students did in the years 60/70s in Germany and guess what in the 90s they are actually quiet and have not seen their voices since then---strange is it not.

Back to nationalism---these is also two new forms of nationalism that just cropped up in the Russian dialogue as seen in Interfax this morning from last night and over the last few days.

Economic/political nationalism are now political tools being used by Putin---as I mentioned to you earlier in comments directed to you Putin is jammed up right now by his earlier moves in the Crimea. So how does he come out of the jam---he uses nationalism in new undefined forms and it appears to the West just to be "politics". We have since the Cold War days in the West looked at the "politics", but we never did understand the underlying nationalisms that was driving those "politics" we were "seeing".

Some in the Force have actually understand the concept of "seeing and understanding" but they are few and far between.

The reasons he used there are not working currently as the Ukrainian oligarchs in the east and south have made a decision that business inside the EU is better than the CIS/Russia and are damping down the proRussian groups and the Ukrainian security forces are getting better at fishing out Russian agents/provocateurs and are controlling better the busses coming from Russia.

So where to with an argument that sounds "legal" in his head that he thinks he can "sell" the West on---the political and economic nationalism is next.

The political nationalism was started two days ago with arguments tied to the Russian suggested federation also released via Interfax and now the economic nationalism argument is being pushed considering the Moldavian enclave.

21:22 Economic woes may put Transdniestria on "unpredictable" path - Russian diplomat

So since you enjoy making individual comments then what is being implied by "unpredictable path".

Take the term and then provide for me a good workup of what it could be and how it would go into effect "politically".

[JMA]

All those easily identifiable faces. I wonder how many of those guys are still in Ukraine.

If they are and are not 'disappearing' one by one then Ukraine is clearly incapable of looking after itself.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---there is talk by the Ukrainians just after the Russian announcement that the 40 or so Ukrainian vessels would be remaining under their control as well as the military posts and military equipment to include the military housing will be totaled and taken to international court where the Ukrainians will get an international order of repayment-(there is talk that Russia is trying to sidestep that court)--plus the rates were also set for the Black Sea Russian fleet until 2042 that while even though cancelled by the Russians are still internationally binding as the Crimea is not being internationally recognized.

Gazprom has taken over all Ukrainian gas and oil locations, equipment and control the drilling areas as well as the gas pipelines inside the Crimea---the Ukraine has indicated they will calculate that against anything Gazprom attempts to charge them.

Found this as well today----and the bottomless pit opens up for the Russian economy-----

Simferopol - Crimea's Regional Development Ministry has sent Russia's Finance Ministry a proposal to develop the peninsula's rural areas and the overall cost of the project is 150 billion rubles, Regional Development Minister Sergei Glebov said.

[Stan]

Over and above the debt issue, one wonders about future loss of revenue to Gazprom. Econ 101 and price theory-- as price goes up demand goes down unless the demand is inelastic. Particularly with warmer weather coming to the region, how inelastic is Ukrainian natural gas demand?

Good point. They tried to also turn off our gas and rail, but, the idiots did it in early Summer

[Firn]

@outlaw09: I think the Ukrainian government would be foolish to serve any loan or liability to the Russian government or de-facto SOE like Gazprom. The higher their debt becomes to that bunch the better it can be.

@Stan: The curse of a not that wealthy little country with a small market living next to Putin's Russia...

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---this is an issue which surprises one about Russia---regardless of how they act and what they do they seem to be adamant about maintaining legality in the international area of law---they have in the past given way when taken to court over outstanding debt and or unpaid debt so actually it might well work in reverse for the Ukrainians as they have with the threat of debt recovery gotten the Russians today to move a tad as it looks like they will get their ships/aircraft back after the court threat.

What is far more worrying is the increased rhetoric in comments on "mistreated Russians in the east---this from Interfax today was as well a report on the attempted arrest of a proRussian priest in Odessa for incitement;

Moscow - Members of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of Russia's parliament, are worried about the fate of the "people's governor" of the Ukrainian city of Donetsk, Pavlo Hubarev, Russian Senator Igor Morozov has said. They claim he was badly beaten and is in a prison hospital.

MOSCOW. April 1 (Interfax) - Officers of Ukraine's special operations force Alfa came to the apartment of Odessa priest Oleh Mokryak in order to detain him, but the priest was not home, a representative of the Moscow Patriarchate Department for External Church Relations told Interfax.

"The priest has been accused of contacts with participants in Odessa demonstrations that criticized the policies pursued by the new Kyiv authorities," he said.

The Alfa group that came to the priest's apartment included ten officers armed with automatic weapons, he said.

Father Oleh, who serves at the St. Tatyana Church of the National Law Academy in Odessa and heads the diocese's department of missionary work, catechesis and religious education, was "earlier summoned to the Security Service of Ukraine over the phone," the representative said.

In a separate development, Ukrainian law enforcement officers searched the apartment of pro-Russian activist Valery Kaurov, who heads the Union of Orthodox Citizens of Ukraine, in Odessa on Tuesday morning.

Kaurov himself has said that he is "out of the reach of law enforcement agencies of Ukraine."


The second worry is---yes Putin pulled back one single lone mech infantry BN as a sign of "good faith"----but Merkel indicated this morning that is nowhere close to what Putin should be doing.

So for all the telephonic meetings between Kerry and the Russian FM---all for show and no substance.

[OUTLAW 09]

As the Ukrainians told Russia yesterday---before they complain about the Ukrainian governance they should clean up their own governance.

Another Russia governance complaint today via Interfax that goes a towards the Ukrainian comments----not so sure--must check it but I believe the Russians have a similar new law in place for about the last five months especially focused against demonstrators.

Another perfect example of Russian double standards---but it signals to me they are getting concerned that the Ukrainian security forces are finally recovering and getting focused far faster than the Russians thought they would especially towards internal threats.

April 01, 2014 15:54 Russia expects West, rights organizations to react to Ukrainian bill on preventive detentions
MOSCOW. April 1 (Interfax) - Russia is waiting for the West to react to the bill on preventive detentions of persons suspected of plotting crimes against national security, submitted to the Ukrainian parliament.

"The Russian side is waiting for its Western partners - the 'staunch' advocates of democratic reform, including in the post-Soviet space - to respond to the Ukrainian leadership's recent initiative. We also hope that Russian, Ukrainian and foreign human rights organizations will react accordingly," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a commentary on Tuesday.

"The bill would authorize the detentions of Ukrainian citizens who pose a threat to Ukraine and the Ukrainian public's interests, and to the country's territorial integrity. It would also introduce temporary rules of preventive detentions of persons 'suspected of plotting or committing crimes against Ukraine's national security," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

[kaur]

Some weeks after Coup d'etat and annexion of Crimea Russia's defence minister talks about nazizm.

In light of the broad spread of the ideas of neo-Nazism in Ukraine, Russia must once again demonstrate its categorical refusal to accept fascism in the world at the Victory parade on May 9, Russian Defense Minister Army Gen. Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting at the defense ministry.

"Unlike Ukrainian right-wing radical forces who openly march in Ukrainian towns with fascist symbols, praise Bandera and other Nazi abettors, vandalize monuments to Soviet soldiers, Russians are actively preparing for a solemn celebration of the upcoming 70th anniversary of the liberation of Odessa, Kerch, Simferopol and other cities from German fascist occupiers," the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_0...Minister-4697/

Is this irony of faith? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EzUXybYgnw

[davidbfpo]

First a photo from The Guardian, which has the IMHO an unlikely caption:

A woman walks past a train loaded with Ukrainian tanks which are set to leave the Crimean peninsular by the end of Monday.

Second a photo from FP's Morning Brief, which has no caption, but is alongside the headline 'No Evidence of Russian Drawdown as NATO Meets in Brussels'.

[JMA]

The second worry is---yes Putin pulled back one single lone mech infantry BN as a sign of "good faith"----but Merkel indicated this morning that is nowhere close to what Putin should be doing.

Yet the message was:

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel on Monday that he'd ordered a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from his country's border area with Ukraine, Merkel's office said.

Then when it dawns on here that she has been 'had' by Putin:

The Kremlin made no mention of a withdrawal in its description of the call but said the two leaders discussed Ukraine, including "possibilities for international assistance to restore stability."

Merkel tricked into passing disinformation. NATO disagrees:

Ukraine crisis: No sign of Russian troop pullout - Nato

The Russians are having fun with the idiots from the US and Europe they are playing with. This is really sad.

So for all the telephonic meetings between Kerry and the Russian FM---all for show and no substance.

Obama / Kerry are falling for the Russian need to keep talking - thereby giving the appearance that they (the Russians) are committed to seek a diplomatic solution. The joke is on the US... again.

[Stan]

@Stan: The curse of a not that wealthy little country with a small market living next to Putin's Russia...

Firn,
More like arm twisting.
Had he shut the gas off in the Winter, that would have been a major issue and would have required immediate remediation on Estonia's political party.

[Stan]

First a photo from The Guardian, which has the IMHO an unlikely caption:

David,
Looks like loading onto rail cars.

Ever been in a tank

[TheCurmudgeon]

I add this for three reasons.

First, it shows that younger people in the Ukraine MAY have a more liberal attitude towards each other than the Russian media may want to admit.

Second, it demonstrates that Americans may not fully comprehend what Putin means when he talks about protecting “Russian speakers”.

And third, the Russians have no sense of humor.

What 'The Simpsons' Says About Ukraine's Language Divide

Misha Kostin, a 21-year-old construction engineer in eastern Ukraine, loves The Simpsons. He's loved it for 10 years. He says the animated series "illustrates everyday life problems in humorous ways, and offers a useful moral at the end of each episode."

And though Kostin and most of the people in eastern Ukraine are native Russian speakers, he prefers to download episodes dubbed not in Russian but in his second language, Ukrainian. All his friends in the city of Donetsk prefer the version dubbed in Ukrainian.

"They talk in Russian, they think in Russian," and even their parents speak only Russian, he says of his friends. "But Simpsons? They like in Ukrainian."

Vladimir Lykov, creative director of an animation studio in Donetsk, agrees that The Simpsons is more popular in Ukrainian than are some other shows, like Family Guy.

In the recent crisis in Ukraine, much has been made of the divisions between Russian speakers, who are the majority in the east and the south, and the Ukrainian-speakers, who are dominant in the western part of the country.

But Lykov says language in Ukraine has always been more a political tool of division than an actual divide. People in eastern Ukraine — especially those under 35, who came of age after the Soviet Union collapsed — like being bilingual, he says.

"Unfortunately," he says, "The media likes to show that only Russians live here and only Ukrainians live in western Ukraine. Actually people here have no trouble understanding both languages. And Ukrainian is even funnier for Russian-speakers [because] it's got cleverer slang."

It appears the Simpsons are from the Ukraine, the Griffins are from Russia ...

[davidbfpo]

David,
Looks like loading onto rail cars.

Ever been in a tank

Stan,

Indeed loading onto railway cars. I don't recall seeing heavy armour actually being deployed by the Russians in their 'fraternal assistance'. Nor do I think the Ukraine had any heavy armour in the Crimea. Let alone that Russia would return such equipment to the Ukraine.

Just illustrates how our mainstream media can confuse themselves and us. More likely it is Russian heavy armour in Russia (outside of the Crimea) being loaded or unloaded.

Yes I think I have been in a tank, stationary and in a simulator of an APC.

[Stan]

Stan,

Indeed loading onto railway cars. I don't recall seeing heavy armour actually being deployed by the Russians in their 'fraternal assistance'. Nor do I think the Ukraine had any heavy armour in the Crimea. Let alone that Russia would return such equipment to the Ukraine.

Just illustrates how our mainstream media can confuse themselves and us. More likely it is Russian heavy armour in Russia (outside of the Crimea) being loaded or unloaded.

Yes I think I have been in a tank, stationary and in a simulator of an APC.

David,
I agree. More media hype than fact.

BTW, you don't need a ground guide to drive on dirt

[Stan]

I add this for three reasons.

First, it shows that younger people in the Ukraine MAY have a more liberal attitude towards each other than the Russian media may want to admit.

Second, it demonstrates that Americans may not fully comprehend what Putin means when he talks about protecting “Russian speakers”.

And third, the Russians have no sense of humor.

It appears the Simpsons are from the Ukraine, the Griffins are from Russia ...

Stan,
My 50-year-old better half says that not even the Baltic States understand Putin and his protection rationale.

The Estonians watch the Simpsons in English !