Interesting when open source reporting in unclassified fashion matches now what NATO's Commander Breedlove is releasing.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26940375
Outlaw,Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
They have always surprised us with their ability to cope and spring is not a good time to influence enemies from desolate climates with sanctions. They can and will handle some sanctions well into November. They are also keen on our fiscal year facade. How many times do we, a so-called advanced society, need to show everyone how inept we are at concluding an annual budget? Pathetic! Have we concluded that Russian or African kleptocracy is far worse than our elected officials and their Sierra ?
Ever read the book “Europe’s Last Frontier” ? Belarus fell and threw our diplomats out and Moldova is in Russia’s sights. The Ukraine was cool until their president got even greedier than was even possible. Time to pay the piper !
The Baltic States warned them, “This is part of the plan and shut down your borders”. They should have listened. Who else should we then blame with years of Sierra and experience. Most people would gladly pay for that info.
We have been working with their military for years under the guise of NATO prep. It’s only now getting some high visibility and looks like a dog and pony show. We also like to take advantage of good press when the opportunity presents itself. You know how long it will take to train officers and NCOs. Next 5 years if we are lucky ?
Sweden had the perfect chance of shutting down the pipeline to Germany. They actually still do have that capability. But it’s not Russia’s money and Vova could give a good Sierra.
If Russia wants a parade, it will be Victory Day. As with almost every year, they have planted and planned unrest. We are quietly prepared however and little has happened since 2008.
So why then does the USG have a problem recognizing his mental state ?
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Interesting when open source reporting in unclassified fashion matches now what NATO's Commander Breedlove is releasing.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26940375
Stan, its called 'deception'. Just when just about everyone thinks the threat has passed they will move.
What one needs is a 'deterrent'. Something that will make any move not worth the cost.
Obama has gone absent, Kerry is merely verbal, the Brits have nothing to say and Frau Merkel is sulking.
Now is the time for the Chinese to make a move.
This comment makes one wonder just where the minds of Putin and Co. wonder off to theses days.
About four days ago Interfax carried a comment by Putin that stated basically the Crimea would not have occurred if the US/EU had discussed the Ukrainian association problem with Russian in the Fall of 2013.
Now today again via Interfax Putin is quoted as follows;
15:13 PUTIN: DECISION TO JOIN CRIMEA WAS MADE FOLLOWING SOCIOLOGICAL POLLS, WE DID NOT PLAN SUCH A TURN OF EVENTS INITIALLY
So does anyone have an earthly idea what he means when he refers to "sociological polls"----is he simply stating for the record we seemed to get our own opinion polling basically wrong but we moved anyway.
So maybe everything that has been said about Putin's moves must be revised to include the fact that he does international relations based on polling?
Must be a new Russian novel way of doing business.
This report seems to be a little bit outdated, 98 years old, actually.
Now we have cookies and talk more about money than soul.
@OUTLAW 09So does anyone have an earthly idea what he means when he refers to "sociological polls"----is he simply stating for the record we seemed to get our own opinion polling basically wrong but we moved anyway.
So maybe everything that has been said about Putin's moves must be revised to include the fact that he does international relations based on polling?
Must be a new Russian novel way of doing business.
I've learned from your posts that you are constantly thrilled, shocked, puzzled and awed by almost everything Putin/Russia does. Why so? Is it so hard for you to perceive the reality as it is? Is the world so brutal and uncomprehensive that you just can't handle it?
Last edited by mirhond; 04-10-2014 at 02:27 PM.
mirhond---missed you yesterday---by the way still awaiting a copy of your ID which you find X number of reasons why it cannot be attached. Or do you not have an ID that you would like to share with us?This report seems to be a little bit outdated, 98 years old, actually.
Now we have cookies and talk more about money than soul.
@OUTLAW 09
I've learned from your posts that you are constantly thrilled, shocked, puzzled and awed by almost everything Putin/Russia does. Why so? Is it so hard for you to perceive the reality as it is? Is the world so brutal and uncomprehensive that you just can't handle it?
By the way you did not answer the sociological polling question--it was actually a very simple question but again you found other things to say instead of a direct answer to the question ---and since you could not answer it I will let Putin himself answer it which he did later for Interfax.
One thing I have noticed about your comments since we are on the topic is that when direct questions are asked you make tap dancing a new art of conversation.
You tend to throw out statements and then amazingly you fail to response to others when they question your comments ---actually you tap dance gracefully when someone specifically makes a statement but hey that is the academic KGB way of doing business--never give an answer because you just might be held responsible and responsibility is just not in the KGB vocabulary is it not mirhond.
Again it is great to see a Russian leader leading his country from the "heart" that is so unique these days.
So as a Russian citizen are you not happy that your leader is unique in the world as he leads his country from the heart and he makes decisions based on "secret polling". Gives a citizen of Russian a real warm and fuzzy feeling that his interests are well taken care of does it not?
By the way you did compare Putin to Hitler and the NSDAP in one of your previous comments---are you sure you want that comment out in the public especially since we know what the term Nazi brings up for visions in Russian minds?
April 10, 2014 17:16 Decision to incorporate Crimea was made following sociological polls, it wasn't planned initially - Putin
NOVO-OGARYOVO. April 10 (Interfax) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said the final decision on the inclusion of Crimea and Sevastopol into Russia was made in regards to a sociological poll conducted in Crimea.
"I made my decisions after it became clear how people felt. We did not prepare for such events. We could imagine how people felt, but we didn't know it for a fact," Putin said during a meeting with All-Russia Popular Front activists.
"The first sociological polls, which, let's say directly, we conducted secretly, but whose outcome was fairly close to the real situation, made it clear that our line of behavior was right," Putin said.
Putin reiterated that the first sociological poll showed that 80% of the people of Crimea and even more people in Sevastopol wanted Crimea to join Russia. "That figure increased even more at the referendum, when the process began developing," Putin said, adding that this figure is amazing.
"If we didn't know that the situation was the way it was, we would not have acted the way we did, consistently and persistently," Putin said.
So mirhond---does now the Ukraine have to thank Putin for annexing Crimea because the Ukrainians did not have the same polling numbers and thus were totally uniformed apparently about feelings of the heart---come on mirhond really?
Noticed Putin did not include what the polling numbers were for the Tartars or were their votes simply lumped into the stuffed ballot boxes since they choose not to vote.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-10-2014 at 03:04 PM.
Levada published yesterday long survey about Russians. Here is the graphic about Putin's popularity. In a separate comment Levada guy said that Putin's popularity rise has always connected with different wars (real (Chechen, Georgia, Crimea and gas wars) and conflicts (for example the Estonian bronze soldier episode). He said also that the influence lasts some months and then there must be new stimulus. Is this Putin's problem or we have problem with Russians' psyhychology? In January the popularity was all time low. What war next to satisfy audience?
Last edited by kaur; 04-10-2014 at 03:06 PM.
Outlaw,
In essence, the majority of inhabitants in Crimea voted for reunification.
We also had a sociological poll performed
Now, it seems, the EU will not be getting gas if the Ukraine doesn't pay its tab
Putin warns European leaders of looming crisis in gas supplies to EU
"The letter contains detailed description of the critical situation that developed against the backdrop of Ukraine’s growing debt for gas being supplied to it, as well as possible consequences for gas transit to Europe," he said.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
mirhond---since your previous comments on equating Putin/Hitler and the NSDAP seems to reflect a fondness for Nazism maybe you need to fully understand the new anti-Nazi law being passed by your own Russian leader who "leads with his heart" ---those comments might in fact to be in violation of the coming new law since you compared Putin to Hitler.
By the way maybe since you seem to be well informed---why do you not explain the deep Russian dislike of Nazi's when there are Russian nationalists who are close to being Nazi's in their statements and actions towards Jews in your own country.
The Russian Lower House has passed the first reading of a bill introducing prison sentences for the public justification of Nazism. The sponsors would like to sign it into law before May 9 – the anniversary of Russia’s victory in WWII.
The bill was approved unanimously on Friday.
“Our country has not simply defended itself. We have defended the whole world from Nazism. Our people suffered the greatest casualties in this war. For us, the rehabilitation of Nazism will always be a crime against our country and our people. Rehabilitation of Nazism is not only a shot fired at the past and mocking millions of victims. It is also a shot fired at the future, an instigation for new crimes against peace and security, ”one of the main sponsors of the bill, the head of the Lower House Committee for Security Irina Yarovaya said as she presented the bill to MPs.
Earlier, Yarovaya has told the press that the urge for such a law is especially evident today in times of the violent political crisis in Ukraine launched and supported by radicals and neo-Nazis. “Ukraine is a living witness of what can be the result of such a policy, when Nazism is standing tall and manifests itself not only through propaganda but through actual crimes,” the Interfax news agency quoted the lawmaker as saying.
Outlaw,
In essence, the majority of inhabitants in Crimea voted for reunification.
We also had a sociological poll performed
Now, it seems, the EU will not be getting gas if the Ukraine doesn't pay its tab
Stan---not so sure Putin and Gazprom really want to pull the gas trigger as the EU Anti-Trust Commission is sitting on a major charge against Gazprom that has been decided on and they are just waiting to inform Gazprom of the total amount due on their charges which will be 10% of their 2013 earnings and under EU anti-trust violations they can go back to 2012 and forward to 2014 in their 10% charges which could amount to over 34B Euros in owed fines.
So I am not so sure Putin wants to pull that particular trigger---the top dog for Gazprom recently stated gas is a product not a weapon I think out of the fear of the anti trust charges.
The investigation was extensive and thorough and Gazprom knows they are on the hook as they have not been "fighting" it as a company being under these types of charges would normally do---they got caught with their hands in the till so to speak and they know it.
Think these fines will be part of a future EU sanction hit or at least the EU is alluding to that in their Gazprom conversations.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0HT0KK20131003
Two tabels. First compares Hitler to Stalin and it was published some years ago by Moscow journal Snob. Second tabel was published this year by Prohkanov and compares Stalin to Putin.
Last week there was column in Russian very official daily Izvestia were was defined good Hitler. The logic was that reader must separate Hitler until 1939 and after 1939. The annexation of Austria, Memel, Sudetenland (he accomplished what Bismarck couldn't) without blood drop would make him big man in his country's history. Later he started to make mistakes.
Last edited by kaur; 04-10-2014 at 04:27 PM.
That's an easy question to answer and there's nothing sinister about it. By 1941, the Bolsheviks had their fair share of enemies at home and abroad - between the civil war, collectivization, the purges, and so on, there were plenty of discontents, particularly within the repressed nationalities and in some remnants of the White exiles. Even before the Nazi invasion, there were some within the exile camps that viewed Germany as an opportunity to destroy the Bolshevik regime. And when the invasion finally started, before the mass killings and deliberate exterminations campaigns swept up millions of people, White exiles, ethnic nationalists, and other anti-communists militants flocked to the German banner. They eventually added Soviet POWs to their ranks. Tens of thousands joined. Some within the Nazi government even entertained the idea of establishing independent countries using these armies. Hitler eventually dismissed these ideas, although many of the soldiers remained in German service due to the manpower demands of the war, but between Hitler's opposition and Nazi repression, the credibility and political position of these Russian forces became untenable.
Something like 25 million Soviets died during World War II and Russia suffers today still from the population decimation as a result. And something like 80% of German military casualties were incurred on the Eastern Front - so there is some truth to the idea that (1) the USSR suffered the most at the hands of Nazi Germany and (2) that the USSR also inflicted the most damage on Germany. I'm personally of the opinion that after the failure of Operation Barbarossa, Nazi Germany was destined to lose anyway.
As for the neo-Nazis in Russia today; neo-nazism is nothing at all like its classical predecessor. You will find neo-nazi elements in every country that the original Nazis had planned to destroy. The definition of "Aryan" has expanded to include virtually all white people. Ironically, it has become more inclusive.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Yep, sounds bad but looking at Notices, Investigations and Trade Defense, China has more worries than that of Russia.
It would be interesting to know just how many times the EU threatened Russia with sanctions and fines, and, just how many times Russia actually paid, or, paid attention.
These are not exactly strongly worded phrases I would use on Putin
From your link
but we have now moved to the phase of preparing a statement of objections
A source familiar with the matter told Reuters the Commission planned to take action by the end of the year.
Gazprom ... could stave off a potential fine by offering concessions to settle the case.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
AP---there is though and interesting aspect that even Russian side steps---the secret agreements between Stalin and Hitler in 1938, 1939 and again in 1941 that gave both sides spheres of influence and divided all of eastern Europe between themselves.That's an easy question to answer and there's nothing sinister about it. By 1941, the Bolsheviks had their fair share of enemies at home and abroad - between the civil war, collectivization, the purges, and so on, there were plenty of discontents, particularly within the repressed nationalities and in some remnants of the White exiles. Even before the Nazi invasion, there were some within the exile camps that viewed Germany as an opportunity to destroy the Bolshevik regime. And when the invasion finally started, before the mass killings and deliberate exterminations campaigns swept up millions of people, White exiles, ethnic nationalists, and other anti-communists militants flocked to the German banner. They eventually added Soviet POWs to their ranks. Tens of thousands joined. Some within the Nazi government even entertained the idea of establishing independent countries using these armies. Hitler eventually dismissed these ideas, although many of the soldiers remained in German service due to the manpower demands of the war, but between Hitler's opposition and Nazi repression, the credibility and political position of these Russian forces became untenable.
Something like 25 million Soviets died during World War II and Russia suffers today still from the population decimation as a result. And something like 80% of German military casualties were incurred on the Eastern Front - so there is some truth to the idea that (1) the USSR suffered the most at the hands of Nazi Germany and (2) that the USSR also inflicted the most damage on Germany. I'm personally of the opinion that after the failure of Operation Barbarossa, Nazi Germany was destined to lose anyway.
As for the neo-Nazis in Russia today; neo-nazism is nothing at all like its classical predecessor. You will find neo-nazi elements in every country that the original Nazis had planned to destroy. The definition of "Aryan" has expanded to include virtually all white people. Ironically, it has become more inclusive
So the motto of sleeping with the devil is then what balanced by claiming after 1941 we got it wrong thus all Nazi's are all bad.
Stan---what Gazprom is not wanting to admit to is that the EU anti trust commission is built on the German model---which allows the anti trust guys to define the violation and the fines---once that is done the companies have no legal recourse---they can beg a review but not a single EU company has avoided the fines.Yep, sounds bad but looking at Notices, Investigations and Trade Defense, China has more worries than that of Russia.
It would be interesting to know just how many times the EU threatened Russia with sanctions and fines, and, just how many times Russia actually paid, or, paid attention.
These are not exactly strongly worded phrases I would use on Putin
From your link
The EU has been waiting for Putin to make his gas moves before they pull the trigger as a negotiation tactic.
The Slovaks have asked the EU for legal determination on reverse shipping of gas to the Ukraine---meaning will they be in violation of Gazproms contracts and liable for penalties.
Initial ruling has been no violations as they view many of the Gazproms contracts to be in violation of anti trust regulations for the EU and Gazprom has been informed of their determinations.
So yes Russia could attempt to avoid but in the end Gazprom will pay as the delivery contracts foresee penalties if Gazprom does not maintain the gas pressure flow of a minimum of 62%.
What is more interesting is that in the recent Interfax press release of several days ago the Russian FM threatened the West if they even thought about reverse gas flows to the Ukraine---then the anti trust guys voiced a few words and then the Russian threats went silent.
What is also interesting is that the reverse gas flow plans came from E.ON and RWE pushed by the German government and now Slovakia is starting the pipe check processes needed.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-10-2014 at 07:49 PM.
There is an old saying "the revolution is eating it's children".
This link is telling concerning as it goes to the core of the Russian form of nationalism that is slowly getting out of control.
It is hard to govern a diverse country when the country rests on four pillars 1) the military, 2) the security services, 3) the oligarchs and 4) the Russian Mob it is hard to maintain one's focus as a leader---that might explain why Putin's recent press releases seem to be all over the map.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/russ...up-342953.html
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-10-2014 at 07:59 PM.
Outlaw,
I still have the very same question
Moving forward... Let's for the sake of argument say the EU backs Putin into a corner. The very next day following a terrorist attack and the pipeline is screwed and repairs could take years.
I'm unaware of a single instance where Russia paid her bills or backed down from Western threats.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Stan, yes and no.
It appears a significant number of these 'inhabitants' of Crimea are Russian servicemen, their families (one supposes) and techical and support staff for the naval base... and any other Russian who happened to be in Crimea at the time.
These people would be (should be) allowed to vote in a Crimea referendum?
I don't think Stalin understood the intention of Hitler and the Nazi Party vis-a-vis the Soviet Union. Even as frontier posts and intelligence agents reported the German build-up on the border, Stalin dismissed the threat. In fact, he had one the generals of Army intelligence shot over this disagreement, and wrote a personal letter to Hitler asking for clarification, to which Hitler replied that the military forces were resting in preparation for more campaigns in the West (against the UK). And frankly, I don't think anyone could have predicted the massive devastation planned for the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany - population transfers, genocide, slave labor. World War II did not reach its horrible zenith until the Nazis lunged into the East.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
Comment to Levada graphic.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...ack-putin.htmlThursday, April 10, 2014
Window on Eurasia: Russians Back Putin on Crimea but Aren’t Ready to Suffer the Consequences, Gudkov Says
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