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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #1061
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    Outlaw, Ukrainian forces are in delicate situation. The small group of armed opposition is behind civilian screen. Ukrainian forces just can't drive through the aggressive crowd. Correct me, but I think that US units were in similiar situation in Mogadishu. Russians were in this sitation in first Chechen war, where civilians stopped tank column. Ukrainians need precision strike capacity, if they want to finish this media show. On the other hand, I don't know how big is the crowd

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    JMA---there is also another possibility---shooters/trainers on the ground. When Russia via Interfax got excited about Grey Stone (US) being in the Ukraine--response from Grey Stone was ---no comment.
    JMA/Stan---my two previous comments on Brennan's visit were close to being correct based on this Daily Beast article from today.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-to-putin.html

  3. #1063
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Outlaw, Ukrainian forces are in delicate situation. The small group of armed opposition is behind civilian screen. Ukrainian forces just can't drive through the aggressive crowd. Correct me, but I think that US units were in similiar situation in Mogadishu. Russians were in this sitation in first Chechen war, where civilians stopped tank column. Ukrainians need precision strike capacity, if they want to finish this media show. On the other hand, I don't know how big is the crowd


    kaur---if they are smart they simply surround the buildings in question as well as the road blocks cut all food, water and electricity to the buildings and the same to the road blocks and invite the media to record their actions and all groups.

    At the same time it would also depict a distinct lack of local population support.

    With the armed groups inside a building they cannot be roaming around outside thus it allows Ukrainian special ops to focus on the Russian teams inside eastern Ukraine.

    Brennan's visit this weekend sent a clear message to Putin especially since the CIA has deep abilities in the world of guerrilla warfare.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-16-2014 at 08:16 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    JMA/Stan---my two previous comments on Brennan's visit were close to being correct based on this Daily Beast article from today.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-to-putin.html
    Outlaw,

    Not sure about your past, but I have seven consecutive tours at US Embassies, countless ship visits, Marine landing and D2 level visitors similar to above.

    In addition to his newly elected position, he is also responsible for political and social trends. Unfortunately, that often involves visits to some of the most inhospitable places on creation.

    He was doing his job
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  5. #1065
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    kaur---if they are smart they simply surround the buildings in question as well as the road blocks cut all food, water and electricity to the buildings and the same to the road blocks and invite the media to record their actions and all groups.
    I disagree. We left them all alone without a hint of interest. That led to a small incursion, but lasted only minutes. We've learned that cutting off water and electricity had little affect. They were prepared for that, but not being ignored and no press.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    At the same time it would also depict a distinct lack of local population support.
    Here's the part you can't control. They may be concerned about public support and press, but they are puppets of the Kremlin and will stay there until told otherwise.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    With the armed groups inside a building they cannot be roaming around outside thus it allows Ukrainian special ops to focus on the Russian teams inside eastern Ukraine.
    This presumes the Ukrainian SOF are doing that. What we are hearing is they are not and their borders are vacated. Scared comes to mind.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Brennan's visit this weekend sent a clear message to Putin especially since the CIA has deep abilities in the world of guerrilla warfare.
    I don't get this message. Good timing... yes. Had he guaranteed billions on national TV and 50,000 troops, that would have been a message. He obviously could not and did not. Not sure about your past with these dudes, but sharpshooters and Rangers they are not. In fact, I doubt a single one could pass the Q course.
    Last edited by Stan; 04-16-2014 at 08:36 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Outlaw,

    Not sure about your past, but I have seven consecutive tours at US Embassies, countless ship visits, Marine landing and D2 level visitors similar to above.

    In addition to his newly elected position, he is also responsible for political and social trends. Unfortunately, that often involves visits to some of the most inhospitable places on creation.

    He was doing his job
    Stan---and on top of that he served with Obama on the NSC which gives him more authority in the eyes of some.

    More over as CIA chief he has a sizeable private shooter community working for him that is use to unconventional warfare--that was the core message to Putin.

    Sometimes impressions are what messaging is all about---and if one noticed the roaming armed groups ceased especially after the voice intercepts became public.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-16-2014 at 08:35 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    JMA/Stan---my two previous comments on Brennan's visit were close to being correct based on this Daily Beast article from today.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-to-putin.html
    I tend to rate The Daily Beast as a D3 to F6 source. YMMV
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    The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris

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    Outlaw:

    kaur---if they are smart they simply surround the buildings in question as well as the road blocks cut all food, water and electricity to the buildings and the same to the road blocks and invite the media to record their actions and all grou
    ps.

    First they have to find the target, that may move around, which means good intelligence. Then they must be prepared to violent crowd, which means that they must have good nerves and training. They must set up cordons to contain object. I'm just curious how many times you have thought that this cossack group is ideal target for Predator operator.

    Are you reading Russian propaganda

    http://delyagin.livejournal.com/1493782.html

    Tomorrow speaks Putin to his people. He must have message. Stay tuned.

  9. #1069
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Stan---and on top of that he served with Obama on the NSC which gives him more authority in the eyes of some.

    More over as CIA chief he has a sizeable private shooter community working for him that is use to unconventional warfare--that was the core message to Putin.

    Sometimes impressions are what messaging is all about---and if one noticed the roaming armed groups ceased especially after the voice intercepts became public.
    Yep, he is known for that.

    Short story however. A former field grade ended up Clinton's adviser to Africa. The very same who thought a 155 that went through an adobe hut without going high order must have been a "solid shot" tank round. UXO anyone ?

    The same field grade also thought he could send unarmed troops into Somalia and Rwanda.

    Providing advice based on little background worries me. How about running around 800,000 pissed off rebels with 17 rounds of .45 ammo in a week ?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I disagree. We left them all alone without a hint of interest. That led to a small incursion, but lasted only minutes. We've learned that cutting off water and electricity had little affect. They were prepared for that, but not being ignored and no press.



    Here's the part you can't control. They may be concerned about public support and press, but they are puppets of the Kremlin and will stay there until told otherwise.



    This presumes the Ukrainian SOF are doing that. What we are hearing is they are not and their borders are vacated. Scared comes to mind.



    I don't get this message. Good timing... yes. Had he guaranteed billions on national TV and 50,000 troops, that would have been a message. He obviously could not and did not. Not sure about your past with these dudes, but sharpshooters and Rangers they are not. In fact, I doubt a single one could pass the Q course.
    Stan---it is the shooter community that Brennan represents to Putin---Ukrainian SF has been working with USASF for awhile especially at the International Training Center in Germany.

    And there are a number of ex SF on contracts inside the Ukraine as well---that is why Interfax got so antsy about Grey Stone---remember Interfax was carrying the comments about Brennan long before the US even admitted it to US media so I have a feeling the Grey Stone comment is correct as well.

    Grey Stone when asked had the small statement "no comment" and the State Department when asked stated "no US military are in the Ukraine"---they did not say no contractors were not there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by wm View Post
    I tend to rate The Daily Beast as a D3 to F6 source. YMMV
    Everything unless submitted to a thorough confirm or denied is always F6 regardless who reports.

    DB has been actually over the last several weeks a conduit for some in DC and the stories get picked up and passed on into Europe where they make their way into Putin---there is a reason for their releases.

    There is an interplay going on with Brennan's visit and this report to reinforce in Russia the messaging especially since those that released to DB know it will be picked up and passed on.

    If one noticed the roaming armed groups were remarkably quiet today and no additional buildings were taken.

  12. #1072
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Grey Stone when asked had the small statement "no comment" and the State Department when asked stated "no US military are in the Ukraine"---they did not say no contractors were not there.
    Dude,
    We are all taught to say "no comment". That's why we taxpayers fund public affairs officers and lawyers

    I'll bite...

    If we have some distorted version of Blackwater, it seems they are not doing Julliet Sierra !
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  13. #1073
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Yep, he is known for that.

    Short story however. A former field grade ended up Clinton's adviser to Africa. The very same who thought a 155 that went through an adobe hut without going high order must have been a "solid shot" tank round. UXO anyone ?

    The same field grade also thought he could send unarmed troops into Somalia and Rwanda.

    Providing advice based on little background worries me. How about running around 800,000 pissed off rebels with 17 rounds of .45 ammo in a week ?
    Stan---17 rounds in a week or what about 2.16 per day---hope there was an emergency resupply planned somewhere along the route.

    He would not have just gone there without a thorough walk through of the why and without no WH buy in---again IMO he was just the messenger and for that one does not need to know more about 155s but there is a difference between 155s and 120s that is kind of at least common knowledge but that takes having a little experience along the way.

    What I personally know about 155s is that one can call it in to 25 meters from your position if in a bomb crater while protecting your ears then split the difference on the next rounds as the NVA were on the verge of rolling over us and were hugging us.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-16-2014 at 09:13 PM.

  14. #1074
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post

    If one noticed the roaming armed groups were remarkably quiet today and no additional buildings were taken.
    Outlaw,
    They just purportedly seized Ukrainian armored vehicles.

    Funny how all those common citizens know their way around armor. And to think we actually train our idiots to drive metal boxes around Europe

    They are darn lucky I was not behind the wheel, or we would be digging holes.
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  15. #1075
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Dude,
    We are all taught to say "no comment". That's why we taxpayers fund public affairs officers and lawyers

    I'll bite...

    If we have some distorted version of Blackwater, it seems they are not doing Julliet Sierra !
    Stan but a no comment elicits in readers minds a potential yes where as are you crazy we have nothing to do nor any contracts with the Ukraine appears to the same reading class to be a well maybe not.

    It is the DoS statement that actually cements together with the no comment for some readers that there are contractors in place.

    Remember the reading group of these comments are kind of a focus group for this messaging.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Outlaw,
    They just purportedly seized Ukrainian armored vehicles.

    Funny how all those common citizens know their way around armor. And to think we actually train our idiots to drive metal boxes around Europe

    They are darn lucky I was not behind the wheel, or we would be digging holes.
    Stan---if you think about it these events are a well calculated I/O campaign designed for the mass media for the US/NATO/EU and for the Russian population themselves.

    Masses and masses of events hitting the main stream media creates the illusion of a really really big popular uprising---but what is noticeably missing in the released media are the large masses of people that are needed to prove those that took the buildings are at the vanguard of a popular uprising.

    If the polling is correct then a even a majority of proRussians do not want to be taken over by Russia.

    When one looks at the videos being released by the separatists the local population is missing--and that is interesting and might explain why the roaming armed groups have quieted down. The videos show many demonstrators setting up things and or in buildings or around building or APCs, but the really large 5K plus crowds waving flags and yelling support as in Maidan is missing---they are trying to recreate the Maidan but it is not working.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-16-2014 at 09:35 PM.

  17. #1077
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Stan---17 rounds in a week or what about 2.16 per day---hope there was an emergency resupply planned somewhere along the route.
    That’s the point. There is no resupply point nor was anything planned. Army doctrine even today does not count on a 3-man team in a genocide, nor does it count on illogical calculations of an egotistical Russian in mid-life crisis. BTW, that is all I had on any given day for months... two 8-round mags and one in the barrel.

    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    He would not have just gone there without a thorough walk through of the why and without no WH buy in---again IMO he was just the messenger and for that one does not need to know more about 155s but there is a difference between 155s and 120s that is kind of at least common knowledge but that takes having a little experience along the way.

    What I personally know about 155s is that one can call it in to 25 meters from your position if in a bomb crater while protecting your ears then split the difference on the next rounds as the NVA were on the verge of rolling over us and were hugging us.
    He got it wrong. Period. There are no such things as solid shot tank rounds and he was counting on the fact that Africans are scared of US Military uniforms. The bluff, as you know, didn’t work.

    At least you get it, but you didn’t make it to POTUS adviser status. So you are stuck with us.
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  18. #1078
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    Outlaw,
    They just purportedly seized Ukrainian armored vehicles.

    Funny how all those common citizens know their way around armor. And to think we actually train our idiots to drive metal boxes around Europe

    They are darn lucky I was not behind the wheel, or we would be digging holes.
    Stan---six APCs and approximately 30 troops does not make a disintegrating Army---but looks great on Russian TV and to locals.

    It is all about the I/O campaign.

  19. #1079
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    Stan---six APCs and approximately 30 troops does not make a disintegrating Army---but looks great on Russian TV and to locals.

    It is all about the I/O campaign.
    Dude,
    Been driving, firing, instructing and repairing 107s, 109s, 110s, 578s, 88s, etc.

    forgive me, I was being my sarcastic self
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  20. #1080
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    That’s the point. There is no resupply point nor was anything planned. Army doctrine even today does not count on a 3-man team in a genocide, nor does it count on illogical calculations of an egotistical Russian in mid-life crisis. BTW, that is all I had on any given day for months... two 8-round mags and one in the barrel.


    He got it wrong. Period. There are no such things as solid shot tank rounds and he was counting on the fact that Africans are scared of US Military uniforms. The bluff, as you know, didn’t work.

    At least you get it, but you didn’t make it to POTUS adviser status. So you are stuck with us.
    Stan--learned along time ago if you bluff be prepared to have it called.

    Had an interesting conversation today with a Russian business person here in Berlin and he had two comments that stood out---he is well trained, successful not connected to the Russian mob or FSB and not an oligarch and I have known him for awhile since our university days in Berlin.

    1. he called Putin an aggressive agitating arch conservative nationalist and
    2. he indicated that if the West truly wanted to get Putin's attention implement sanctions that impact western businesses---meaning he will immediately pay attention if he sees the West willing to damage their own economies means to him the West is serious

    He also mentioned the economy is in really bad shape and tittering on a full blown recession that will last at least five years.

    Noticed today even Interfax mentioned that the 2014 budget has slide into a massive deficit-far more than ever anticipated by the CB.

    Then he will back down anything less will be simply ignored.








































































































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