Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[kaur]

Putin admitted today that Russian troops were in Crimea.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...cf1_story.html

Putin denied and told about self defence units.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/...rces-in-crimea

Shoigu denied also.

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...ea-338430.html

Ambassador to EU denied too.

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x1d...mbassador_news

Ambassador to UN denied too.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5He_LChDISY

Now they say that there are no Russian troops in Eastern Ukraine. Do you belive them?

Americanpride, Yuchenko didn't manage the problem, Yanukovich didn't manage the problem, Kutchma did manage some time. If country is split 50/50 between east and west it needs cooperation between east, west and Ukraine to solve the problem. Like they tried today in Geneva.

[AmericanPride]

Outlaw,

The Yatsenyuk administration does find itself in a difficult situation, for all of the reasons you have described. But the stated agenda of the administration is not to secure the support of the whole of the population, including the Russian enclaves, but to drive through a specific program of economic austerity before the next elections. Even without Russian agitation, this program is unpopular in eastern Ukraine and it is part of what is driving the discontent and perceptions of illegitimacy. If the policies of the government do not represent the interests of the people - as you have pointed out with the Color Revolutions and with Yanukovych - then what recourses do the people have available? Moscow is obviously using this as leverage in its own favor, which is to be expected, but Moscow did not create this opportunity for itself. At some level, the Kiev administration bears responsibility for failing to craft an inclusive political program.

I'm not really concerned with the moral responsibility of either party. There is a relatively clear chain of events and each side bears responsibility for their actions and mistakes that have contributed to the escalation of the conflict. But to uncover the actual mechanisms of the conflict, we have to get past assigning narrowly defined, subjective moral perspectives. I think the upcoming elections will be a good opportunity for the politicans in Kiev to demonstrate their committment to democratization, although I suspect there will be accusations and counter-accusations of subversion and corruption throughout. I don't think Kiev has many options - and Yatsenyuk even less - but at some point they will have to address the role of ethnic Russians in the government and the distribution of political power. Whatever the moral merits of either side, that's a political fact. In resolving that question, which was the point of my previous post, Kiev has done itself no favors.

You got anything to back up your contention that there is popular sentiment in favor of the silovikian orcs crawling around eastern Ukraine?

It's actually bad form to put words in other people's mouths. I never stated that "there is popular sentiment in favor of [Moscow]". In fact, I made it pretty clear in my last post directed to you that discontent with Kiev does not necessarily indicate support for Moscow - even if Moscow is exploiting it to its own advantage. Frankly, it's the domination of this discussion by your narrow perspective as well as your character attacks on others that have denied the conversation of its depth and interest.

[mirhond]

Meanwhile, in Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKL9KH7pi34

I have no idea what's going on, but annotation says it is a clash of "wild" and "legal" self-defence companies.

[OUTLAW 09]

Do you have any evidence other than the claims by made the Ukrainian government itself? The situation is more complicated than East vs West - just because the Kiev administration is unpopular in eastern Ukraine does not mean that Moscow is popular. The fact of the matter is that eastern Ukrainians for the most part did not participate in the Maiden, and they are not well represented in the new government. Nor are they looking upon the new economic program with any anticipation. This is a prime opportunity for Moscow obviously; it's not a situation created by Moscow from nothing.



None of which actually addresses the fundemental political disposition of eastern Ukrainians in the first place - who, as I have stated repeatedly in previous posts, are not the real conflict in Ukraine. Officials in the Kiev administration, including the President himself, have stated from the beginning that they are effectively on a suicide run in implementing their policies. In other words, they are unconcerned about the expression of any kind of democratic will by the population - ethnic Russians or otherwise - and democracy will not thrawt their agenda. Yatsenyuk is attempting to grab as much political advantage as possible in the short window before the elections. By radically shifting the political stage in his favor, he can significantly shape the outcome of the next election.

So - you are stating that Yatsenyuk, et. al, force out Yanukovych, but that's Russia's fault, not the new Kiev administration. And when they ally with Right Sector and alienate Russian Ukrainians, that's also Moscow's fault, not the Kiev administration. And when they increase taxes, cut subsidies, and dismiss state employees, that's also Moscow's fault, not Yatsenyuk. The political strategy of Kiev is a failure and Moscow is happily exploiting it.

Let me know when you get over your black and white reading of the situation and restore some color to your perspective.

AP go into the Kiev Post and search the results of a major polling organization that indicates that while the proRussian population in the east is "fearful" of Kiev ---Russia has been extremely good at raising this fear as was determined as well by the UN OCHR team that was on the ground there--and by the way the Russian agiprop is extremely good coupled with special ops on the ground there---some of the best I have seen since our own Pysch Warfare BNs under the old US Army SF.

For slickness from a Russian right wing organization that is recruiting and sending personnel into the Ukraine and is carrying a large number of videos being taken by the self defense groups inside the eastern areas and broadcast to the world of their supporters.

They also issued instructions on how to get into the Ukraine and who to link into with.

http://rusvesna.su/video?page=1

[OUTLAW 09]

Meanwhile, in Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKL9KH7pi34

I have no idea what's going on, but annotation says it is a clash of "wild" and "legal" self-defence companies.

mirhond---still waiting for your Russian ID.

Think you took this video from the following link---so I am assuming you work for them as well.

http://rusvesna.su/video?page=1

[AmericanPride]

AP go into the Kiev Post and search the results of a major polling organization that indicates that while the proRussian population in the east is "fearful" of Kiev ---Russia has been extremely good at raising this fear as was determined as well by the UN OCHR team that was on the ground there--and by the way the Russian agiprop is extremely good coupled with special ops on the ground there---some of the best I have since our own Pysch Warfare BNs under the old US Army SF.

I agree, and that's to be expected in a political contest such as this, especially one in which Russia repeatedly raised many serious concerns that were more or less ignored before the conflict. Knowing this, however, also implies there's responsibility in Kiev for actually building a strategy to counteract it - which, at this point, seems only to be to blast the airwaves with accusations of Russian subversion. If the Kiev IO campaign is directed at ethnic Russians, Kiev seems to be missing one of the major factors in that the originator of the message is just as important - if not more so - as the message itself.

My point is that the Kiev administration has done a poor job in actually attempting to legitimize itself amongst its detractors and fence-sitters, and instead has focused on its economic program (which itself is unpopular). That's because Yatsenyuk himself has stated that his government is on a short-term suicide mission for austerity - they are not concerned about building concensus or facilitating democratic processes. For this failure of strategy in building a sustainable political program, they are responsible. And it's that failure that has given the opening to Moscow and has contributed to the instability of the country. Moscow clearly has an organized strategy. What's the strategy in Kiev?

[OUTLAW 09]

[QUOTE=AmericanPride;155225]Outlaw,

The Yatsenyuk administration does find itself in a difficult situation, for all of the reasons you have described. But the stated agenda of the administration is not to secure the support of the whole of the population, including the Russian enclaves, but to drive through a specific program of economic austerity before the next elections. Even without Russian agitation, this program is unpopular in eastern Ukraine and it is part of what is driving the discontent and perceptions of illegitimacy. If the policies of the government do not represent the interests of the people - as you have pointed out with the Color Revolutions and with Yanukovych - then what recourses do the people have available? Moscow is obviously using this as leverage in its own favor, which is to be expected, but Moscow did not create this opportunity for itself. At some level, the Kiev administration bears responsibility for failing to craft an inclusive political program.

AP---the core of your premise is false---if in fact a country has through corruption based on the old Soviet model which has an old fashion economic system still structured on the old Soviet model coupled with a industrial base that still counts advancement in the terms of numbers of things produced and the number of tonnes produced also a relic of the old Soviet economy model tied to an economic model that had the satellite Warsaw Pact countries producing products for the mother land Russia and you have the perfect reason the population rose up.

Remember the Ukraine is in fact an image of Russia with it's four pillar structure for government/governing 1) oligarchs, 2) security services 3) military and 4) criminal gangs.

Which is by the way what is exactly occurring in eastern Ukraine---and it appears that the oligarchs have taken sides and are deeply supporting the Kiev government for whatever reasons down to paying for resistance groups against the self defense groups.



I'm not really concerned with the moral responsibility of either party. There is a relatively clear chain of events and each side bears responsibility for their actions and mistakes that have contributed to the escalation of the conflict. But to uncover the actual mechanisms of the conflict, we have to get past assigning narrowly defined, subjective moral perspectives. I think the upcoming elections will be a good opportunity for the politicans in Kiev to demonstrate their committment to democratization, although I suspect there will be accusations and counter-accusations of subversion and corruption throughout. I don't think Kiev has many options - and Yatsenyuk even less - but at some point they will have to address the role of ethnic Russians in the government and the distribution of political power. Whatever the moral merits of either side, that's a political fact. In resolving that question, which was the point of my previous post, Kiev has done itself no favors.

At some level, the Kiev administration bears responsibility for failing to craft an inclusive political program.

Come on AP that is not reality--- when the entire world as defined by Russia is resisting your every step how does one define what is correct?

[OUTLAW 09]

I agree, and that's to be expected in a political contest such as this, especially one in which Russia repeatedly raised many serious concerns that were more or less ignored before the conflict. Knowing this, however, also implies there's responsibility in Kiev for actually building a strategy to counteract it - which, at this point, seems only to be to blast the airwaves with accusations of Russian subversion. If the Kiev IO campaign is directed at ethnic Russians, Kiev seems to be missing one of the major factors in that the originator of the message is just as important - if not more so - as the message itself.

My point is that the Kiev administration has done a poor job in actually attempting to legitimize itself amongst its detractors and fence-sitters, and instead has focused on its economic program (which itself is unpopular). That's because Yatsenyuk himself has stated that his government is on a short-term suicide mission for austerity - they are not concerned about building concensus or facilitating democratic processes. For this failure of strategy in building a sustainable political program, they are responsible. And it's that failure that has given the opening to Moscow and has contributed to the instability of the country. Moscow clearly has an organized strategy. What's the strategy in Kiev?

AP---come on--have you ever had to step through an unmarked mine field with no mine detection equipment and the mines were not buried within the stated doctrinal pattern---I have and if it is compared to the current Ukrainian government which took over on 21 Feb---I do not discuss before that date.

At least they have not hit a single mine and have to a degree reached the last three feet which is always the hardest because one does not know if the last three feet is in fact the correct distance and there might have been more laid in order to actually kill you.

There is a valid complaint and you missed making it---why has not the government unleashed a massive counter I/O campaign towards the proRussian elements equal to what Russia is aiming at them and you and I via mirhond.

I find that the single weakness that the US could have helped out on but apparently did not.

[OUTLAW 09]

Meanwhile, in Kiev

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKL9KH7pi34

I have no idea what's going on, but annotation says it is a clash of "wild" and "legal" self-defence companies.

mirhond---this is from Interfax from today---

21:25 Lavrov denies Russian military was involved in Crimea events

Putin in his TV broadcast stated today the Russian military was in fact in the Crimea before the elections.

So mirhond who is lying Lavrov or Putin?

[carl]

The fact of the matter is that Russian agitation operations, no matter their extent, would be futile if there was not already popular sentiment in their favor.

American Pride:

The above is a sentence from your post number 1192, and it is a direct quote as indicated.

Now in your post of 10:17 pm, post #1204, you stated "I never stated that "there is popular sentiment in favor of [Moscow]"."

I think it apparent that you plainly stated there was popular sentiment in Russian favor. No taking it back now, you did not say 'Oneseys twoseys I can take it backseys' first.

[TheCurmudgeon]

Food for thought ...

Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Ukrainian and Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

... The leaflet begins, "Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality," and states that all people of Jewish descent over 16 years old must report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and "register."

It says the reason is because the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine supported Bendery Junta, a reference to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist movement that fought for Ukrainian independence at the end of World War II, "and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk," a name adopted by the militant leadership.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...raine/7816951/

I had heard arguments that, in addition to Russian Ethnic identity, Putin was using the population's connection with the Russian Orthodox Church to bolster his new Nationalism. To have an in-group you need an out-group. I guess the Jews will work for that.

Of course, this could just be local thugs trying to shake down the Jewish population, but is ceratinly creates the impression that there is a group who belong there and another group who does not.

[kaur]

Mirhond and Outlaw. Coming back to nationality question. It seems that this is very important for Putin. Today he picked up some questions and mirhond, would you translate this quote. Your English is much more better than mine Other solution is wait for Kremlin translation.

И, наконец, знаете, я долго думал, брать ли этот вопрос вообще. Он такой, не для блиц-ответов и блиц-вопросов, он совсем философский, я его зачитаю. «Спрашиваю у Вас как у политика, – это как раз из Питера, Щербонос Екатерина Александровна задаёт вопрос. – Но слышать хотелось бы Ваше личное, не политическое мнение. Русский народ, он что для Вас? Вы по роду своей деятельности побывали, наверное, во всех странах мира. Вы видели огромное количество наций, народностей, познакомились с их культурными традициями, национальными обычаями, кухней, искусством. И в связи с этим мой вопрос к Вам: что для Вас есть русский человек, русский народ? На Ваш взгляд, его плюсы и минусы, сильные и слабые стороны?»

Знаете, некоторые специалисты считают, что у народа как у общности людей нет своих особенностей, особенности есть только, по их мнению, у конкретного человека. Мне трудно согласиться с этой позицией, потому что если люди пользуются одним языком, живут в рамках единого государства, проживают на одной территории, у них общие культурные ценности, у них общая история, в конце концов, они живут в рамках какой-то территории с определённым климатом, – ну не может не быть каких-то общих черт.

А что касается нашего народа, то страна наша, как пылесос, втягивала в себя представителей различных этносов, наций, национальностей. Кстати говоря, на этой основе создан не только наш общий культурный код, но и исключительно мощный генетический код, потому что за все эти столетия и даже тысячелетия происходил обмен генами, смешанные браки. И именно этот наш генный код, наверное, может быть, почти наверняка является одним из наших главных конкурентных преимуществ в сегодняшнем мире. Он очень гибкий, он очень устойчивый. Мы даже этого не чувствуем, но это наверняка есть.

Что же всё-таки в основе наших особенностей? Эти особенности, конечно, есть, и в их основе, на мой взгляд, лежат ценностные ориентиры. Мне кажется, что русский человек, или, сказать пошире, человек русского мира, он прежде всего думает о том, что есть какое-то высшее моральное предназначение самого человека, какое-то высшее моральное начало. И поэтому русский человек, человек русского мира, он обращён больше не в себя, любимого…

Хотя, конечно, в бытовой жизни мы все думаем о том, как жить богаче, лучше, быть здоровее, помочь семье, но всё-таки не здесь главные ценности, он развёрнут вовне. Вот западные ценности заключаются как раз в том, что человек в себе сам, внутри, и мерило успеха – это личный успех, и общество это признаёт. Чем успешнее сам человек, тем он лучше.

У нас этого недостаточно. Даже очень богатые люди всё равно говорят: «Ну заработал миллионы и миллиарды, дальше что?» Всё равно это развёрнуто вовне, в общество. Мне кажется, ведь только у нашего народа могла родиться известная поговорка: «На миру и смерть красна». Как это так? Смерть – это что такое? Это ужас. Нет, оказывается, на миру и смерть красна. Что такое «на миру»? Это значит, смерть за други своя, за свой народ, говоря современным языком, за Отечество.

Вот в этом и есть глубокие корни нашего патриотизма. Вот отсюда и массовый героизм во время военных конфликтов и войн и даже самопожертвование в мирное время. Отсюда чувство локтя, наши семейные ценности. Конечно, мы менее прагматичны, менее расчётливы, чем представители других народов, но зато мы пошире душой. Может быть, в этом отражается и величие нашей страны, её необозримые размеры. Мы пощедрее душой.

Я никого не хочу при этом обидеть. Ведь у многих народов есть свои преимущества, но это, безусловно, наше. В современном глобальном мире происходит интенсивный обмен: и генетический обмен, и информационный, и культурный, и нам, безусловно, есть что взять у других народов ценного и полезного, но мы всегда, сотнями лет опирались на свои ценности, они нас никогда не подводили, и они нам ещё пригодятся.

http://kremlin.ru/news/20796

[OUTLAW 09]

Food for thought ...

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...raine/7816951/

I had heard arguments that, in addition to Russian Ethnic identity, Putin was using the population's connection with the Russian Orthodox Church to bolster his new Nationalism. To have an in-group you need an out-group. I guess the Jews will work for that.

Of course, this could just be local thugs trying to shake down the Jewish population, but is ceratinly creates the impression that there is a group who belong there and another group who does not.

TC---this does not surprise me because if one looks deeper into the Russian nationalism under the Czarist days they were basically anti Jewish---then under Stalin you had the doctor purges who were in fact Jewish ---do not think the Germans developed their anti Jewish feelings on their own---the first Jewish pogroms came out of Russia followed by the Poles and many of the Jews driven out of Russia and then Poland ended up in Berlin.

What is more interesting is the demands by the separatists that the local businesses pay "fees" or lose their business concessions. It seems the separatists are really extortionists and criminals instead of "poor mistreated ethnic Russians"----it has been all about money and who can make it in a hurry and cannot---this has been a core problem for the Ukraine since the Soviet days.

There has been an element of Russian criminals involved in both Russia and the Ukraine that is also behind the armed groups.

This particular website is "nationalist" which basically is neo right or neo Nazi which Putin does not seem to criticize in his own country but he does on the Ukraine. They have been recruiting for the Ukraine self defense groups and passing on how to get across the border info.

http://rusvesna.su

TC---this was a comment this evening from a Ukrainian security rep concerning eight gangs alone in one building that is occupied.

She said there are eight gangs in the Donetsk Oblast Administration alone that have no single leader for negotiations and no single set of demands, which makes the situation difficult to solve at the diplomatic level.

[wm]

. The fact of the matter is that Russian agitation operations, no matter their extent, would be futile if there was not already popular sentiment in their favor.

I am not so sure of the truth of this statement. I presume you are aware of mob or crowd psychology. People have been known to get caught up in the moment and do things that they would not otherwise have done, especially when lost in the apparent anonymity of a crowd. As a result things like the Kent State and Boston Massacres occur. I tend to think of popular sentiment as something very different from agitation of a crowd by a few William Jennings Bryan's, Al Sharpton's, or other gold-throated orators who are good at emotional appeals.

[mirhond]

@kaur

I suspect that you at least can read Russian, because you've made the right emphasis in the text.
Anyway, you forgive me if I'll not translate the whole bunch of this pseudo-spiritual and eclectic batshиt, would you? I'll just underline the major claims.

Q: What is Russian People for you, as politician? What are their virtues and vices?
P:.. there are communities with shared territory, culture, language and history. ... Our country absorbed a lot of different ethnicities, so we have even a special genes which give us advantage in contemporary world. ... Russian World person has a feeling of high moral mission ... worldly benefits are not enough for us, ... even death for People, for Fatherland is prized. => patriotism, self-sacrifice, family values, soul - blah-blah-blah.
Of cause we have to learn from other nations, but our core value never fail us.

EEk, that's enough , I am going to vomit

Reality is a little bit different, in contemporary Russia all this values exists only in the imagination of ministry of truth apparatchiks, and may be in the minds of lower classes.

[wm]

I'll give you another tip - this one from Edward Luttwak:

Are you starting to develop some degree of understanding now?

As JMA may be aware, the origin of the phrase he quotes is Edward Luttwak's article describing Luttwak's position on what the US should do vis--vis Syria; the first part of that quoted section is a paraphrase from a Roman writer. One might note that Luttwak is an academic who, other than apparently undergoing some form of British Army basic training while going to public school (perhaps like high school Junior ROTC in the US), has never served in the military in uniform, only doing gigs with various defense agencies and think tanks as a consultant.

Instead, we might consider what happened to the Romans and others who have chosen this path of preparing for war to achieve peace.

The source for the first part of the Luttwak quotation is Vegetius, who wrote sometime between 383 and 450 AD. As students of Roman history are probably well aware, the reign of the last Western Roman Emperor ended in 476. So, Rome prepared for war to ensure peace and managed to last less than 100 years after Vegetius gave his advice. A more modern example is Rhodesia--preparing for war to achieve peace was an extremely successful tactic for Ian Smith's government as well: the Rhodesian Republic lasted from 1965-1979. Yet another case in point is the "glorious" Third Reich of Adolf Hitler--its lifespan was 1933-1945.

Successfully preparing for war does not necessarily mean that one must engage in a military buildup. The French preparation for another war with Germany during the 1920s and 1930s by building the Maginot Line was another classic "fail." The post-WWII Soviet Union managed to last about 50 years once it turned to a military build up as its approach to continued existence in the face of perceived external threats.

As the last sentence of JMA's quotation from Luttwak makes clear

Virile and martial elites understand that kind of thinking instinctively

those who "think" with their testicles find this approach to be the right course of action. "Think" is in quotation marks because instinctive understanding is not conscious behavior, thus not really thinking nor really knowledge. It is more like blinking one's eye when sand is blown into it. A response based on thinking might be to put on goggles to protect one's eyes from blowing sand.

I suspect that those who think with their brains will not engage in knee-jerk arms races or precipitate military action. They will probably choose other paths, paths that produce much longer term positive results. Taking a rational approach is rather unfortunate for those backward-looking "dinosaurs" with testicle brains who eschew rational thought--the quality that sets humans apart from the rest of the animals--and can be expected to be met with animalistic grunts, roaring, bellowing, and flatulence. But, as happened to the French knights at Agincourt from their failure to learn and change after Crecy, that route may well result in their ultimate extinction.

[davidbfpo]

My attention has been drawn to a number of posts that are beyond SWC's rules of engagement in presenting arguments and providing information. They do not contribute to what the Council is.

Responding to the 'new war' over the Ukraine is an important issue for SWC members and others who read this thread. In the past such posts have "turned off" members who seek debate.

In a moment I will temporarily lock the thread to enable editing and maybe other action if suitable.

[davidbfpo]

I have deleted a number of threads and lightly edited others. The thread is now open for posting - without sniping, which at times was abusive and so way beyond SWC ROE. No Infractions have been issued, in part as it was unclear who started the fall in standards.

After this post I and other moderators may issue Infractions to those whose language and manner breach SWC rules.

Now can we return to what SWC is for.

[carl]

Sorry David.

I always hate it when I get scolded especially when I deserve it.

[JMA]

Remember when I said 'No it will never happen.'? You convinced me otherwise and now it seems closer than ever, at least with Hawaii. I see the result of a lost naval war with Red China being Guam becoming part of Red China and Hawaii becoming an independent country with Pearl Harbor being a PLAN base.

As I said over at the Journal, the US will do nothing. Mr. Obama is a horse in the face of a threat, not a donkey. What we have to start thinking about is how deep a hole we are going to be in at the end of his term and how we can get out of it, if we can get out of it.

(I've been hanging around horses and a burro lately so my analogies get headed in an equine direction.)

Well Carl, here is a guy who sums the tragedy up pretty well:

Niall Ferguson: America's Global Retreat

Mr. Obama's supporters like nothing better than to portray him as the peacemaker to George W. Bush's warmonger. But it is now almost certain that more people have died violent deaths in the Greater Middle East during this presidency than during the last one.

And a word from Henry Kissinger:

Dr. Kissinger once observed. "Those ages which in retrospect seem most peaceful were least in search of peace. Those whose quest for it seems unending appear least able to achieve tranquillity. Whenever peace—conceived as the avoidance of war—has been the primary objective . . . the international system has been at the mercy of [its] most ruthless member."

There are none so blind...