Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[Stan]

The annual Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS, also known as KaPo) report was published today, with a blue-yellow design as a nod toward Ukraine.

The yearbook focuses on NGOs with loose ties to Russia - - and some not as loose - and organizations in Russia set up for external purposes.

These organizations, according to the IS, aim to promote three messages:
1) Estonia supports Nazism
2) Russian-speaking people are discriminated against in Estonia en masse
3) Estonia is a dead-end state that only causes problems for its Western partners

The report says Russia had refrained from taking openly aggressive steps before Ukraine, to avoid international isolation, but that is no longer a priority.

The ISS is tasked with national security, counterintelligence and investigating large-scale cases of corruption.

The full text of the review is available here.

[JMA]

Maybe the other option: the EU member states outsourcing their protection to a combined UK/French nuclear umbrella, thereby replacing the umbrella provided by the US, is an option.

Unworkable.

Once bitten twice shy.

If you can't trust the US then why trust the UK/France? You would have to be desperate... and crazy

[carl]

... and why they may need to obtain weapons for use at their own discretion and how long it would take have the weapons and delivery systems in place and operationally ready?

Delivery systems they could have ready by next week. Just convert an old fighter like a MiG-23 or a Viggen into a drone and mount the nuke on it. Program it to head for Moscow and rig the fuse to go off on target or anytime the aircraft flight path is disturbed after crossing the Russian border. That way it wouldn't matter if Russian air defense shot it down or not, a nuke would still go off in Russia.

And it would probaly take the Swedes only a few years to deploy a submarine based cruise missile deterrent.

[wm]

This is just a minor thing, not germane to WM's main point but with regard to this statement



so is the US, so is Canada, so is Switzerland, so was Rome etc.

Carl,

Big difference for two of those countries--US and Canada-is that the majority of their citizens are not natives--they are descendants of relatively recent immigrants (except for the Native Americans, Aleuts, etc.) The peoples of Georgia are descendants of ethnic groups that have been there for millennia. If you want to compare Georgians, Abkhazians and Ossetians to Sioux, Algonquin and Cherokee, I'll accept that point.
Rome is another case all together. The original Romans were part of the tribe of Latins. So, if you want to make the comparison to say, Italy--you might be right in terms of comparing them with Samnites, Sabines, Etruscans, Campanians, etc. If you mean Rome after, say the, Samnite Wars, then the comparison is not really valid,even though some of the inhabitants of the Italian Peninsula later revolted. This revolt was the Social War (90-88 BC), a fight between Rome and the Socii, Latin for allies. The Soci lost that war and hence were unable to restore their "right" of self-determination. BTW, some of the battles/wars that Rome later fought were R2P type wars to protect other kingdoms from Parthia, Persia, etc. But once Roman armies showed up, it was usually likely a visit from the Borg--those being assisted were soon "assimilated." Of course the Persians and Parthians , even Pyrrhus of Epirus and Phillip V of Macedon, used R2P type arguments to try to curb Rome or expand their own land.

I'm not sure about the allusion to Switzerland, AKA the Swiss Confederation. Could you say a little more by way of explanation. Seems to me the folks living there have been in place at least as long as the Franks, Lombards and Burgundians in Italy and France

[wm]

Unworkable.

Once bitten twice shy.

If you can't trust the US then why trust the UK/France? You would have to be desperate... and crazy

I seem to remember reading about similar kinds of arguments being given on the impossibility of a European Union--that no European nation would be able to trust another, or enough of the others, after things like the 30 Years War, Wars of the Austrian and Spanish Successions, and the Napoleonic Wars, among other things

[wm]

... and why they may need to obtain weapons for use at their own discretion and how long it would take have the weapons and delivery systems in place and operationally ready?

All this discussion of potential nuclear proliferation reminds me of the song "Who's Next" by Tom Lehrer, here on YouTube for your listening and viewing pleasure.

[JMA]

Russia would know how long it would take and could plan accordingly.

Still don't blame them for arming themselves as the US nuclear umbrella is unreliable.

Delivery systems they could have ready by next week. Just convert an old fighter like a MiG-23 or a Viggen into a drone and mount the nuke on it. Program it to head for Moscow and rig the fuse to go off on target or anytime the aircraft flight path is disturbed after crossing the Russian border. That way it wouldn't matter if Russian air defense shot it down or not, a nuke would still go off in Russia.

And it would probaly take the Swedes only a few years to deploy a submarine based cruise missile deterrent.

[kaur]

Stan:

These organizations, according to the IS, aim to promote three messages:
1) Estonia supports Nazism
2) Russian-speaking people are discriminated against in Estonia en masse
3) Estonia is a dead-end state that only causes problems for its Western partners

From Putin's answers about Ukraine two days ago.

1) Nationalism and even neo-Nazism are experiencing a resurgence in western Ukraine.

2) People in eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine were worried about their future and the future of their children, because they saw a rapid growth of nationalist sentiments, heard threats and saw that [the new authorities] wanted to invalidate some of the ethnic minorities’ rights, including the rights of the Russian minority. On the other hand, this description is relative, because Russians are native persons in Ukraine. But an attempt was made to invalidate all decisions regarding the use of the native language. This alarmed people, of course. What happened next?

3) But you know well the history of this territory (Ukraine) and its people. Some of these territories were part of Czechoslovakia, some of Hungary, some of Austro-Hungary and some of Poland, where they were never full-fledged citizens. You know, something has always been growing in their heart of hearts.

Some people seem to believe that it is this circumstance – because these territories were former possessions of several present-day EU countries – that imbues them with some special European substance. That they were second-rate citizens in those states seems to have been forgotten, but this still lurks in their historical memory, under the crust, deep down in their hearts, see? It’s where their nationalism comes from, I think.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034

[JMA]

kaur,

With the greatest respect why would you believe anything Putin says in public forum?

Stan:

From Putin's answers about Ukraine two days ago.

1) Nationalism and even neo-Nazism are experiencing a resurgence in western Ukraine.

2) People in eastern and southeastern regions of Ukraine were worried about their future and the future of their children, because they saw a rapid growth of nationalist sentiments, heard threats and saw that [the new authorities] wanted to invalidate some of the ethnic minorities’ rights, including the rights of the Russian minority. On the other hand, this description is relative, because Russians are native persons in Ukraine. But an attempt was made to invalidate all decisions regarding the use of the native language. This alarmed people, of course. What happened next?

3) But you know well the history of this territory (Ukraine) and its people. Some of these territories were part of Czechoslovakia, some of Hungary, some of Austro-Hungary and some of Poland, where they were never full-fledged citizens. You know, something has always been growing in their heart of hearts.

Some people seem to believe that it is this circumstance – because these territories were former possessions of several present-day EU countries – that imbues them with some special European substance. That they were second-rate citizens in those states seems to have been forgotten, but this still lurks in their historical memory, under the crust, deep down in their hearts, see? It’s where their nationalism comes from, I think.

http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/7034

[kaur]

JMA, let's speculate that in his head Putin thinks other way. But you must admit that rhetoric about Ukraine is very similar to points that Stan mentioned in his post.

If you have not red Angus Roxburgh's book "Strongman", I suggest reading it. He writes among other things about Ukraine 2004 presidential elections and has made interviews with Putin's spin doctors, who helped Yanukovich during his campaign. Nice reading about Russian thinking. Nazizm, violence etc.

Here is Novorossiya area map, that Putin mentioned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/19/wo...s&emc=rss&_r=1

[Stan]

Mark,
In theory, and I mean way back when, our Army shrink tried to explain the Mobutu mentality.

Huge sense of self-worth
persuasive
ruthless
No remorse
manipulative

Politicians

The year book I referenced are from a bunch of very smart criminologists with plenty of experience in dealing with exactly what is happening in the Ukraine.

Sadly, their advise fell on deaf ears.

kaur,

With the greatest respect why would you believe anything Putin says in public forum?

[JMA]

Look at these stats: Demographics of Georgia

At the time of the last full census in 1989 70% identified themselves as ethnic Georgians. That's good enough to speak of the Georgian nation.

It appears that one has to be careful of the dates of movements of peoples in these countries as there was an influx of Russians during the Soviet era. In the main it was Russians inwards and others such as the Tartars from Crimea out.

This is a subject on it's own.

[JMA]

Putin is clearly delusional... but many people in the international media and in Europe are taking him seriously. What does that say about them?

I would say he has criminal cunning rather than intellectual intelligence. He should be dealt with on that basis.

He has psyched out the leadership of the US and Europe and must be given credit for that.

As Gary Kasparov said:

Putins-just-like-Al-Capone

Mark,
In theory, and I mean way back when, our Army shrink tried to explain the Mobutu mentality.

Huge sense of self-worth
persuasive
ruthless
No remorse
manipulative

Politicians

The year book I referenced are from a bunch of very smart criminologists with plenty of experience in dealing with exactly what is happening in the Ukraine.

Sadly, their advise fell on deaf ears.

[JMA]

OK, I don't claim any knowledge of the Russian mentality. Maybe you can help.

How far with Putin go and how far will he retain Russian support... and what will it take to stop him and then reverse his gains?

JMA, let's speculate that in his head Putin thinks other way. But you must admit that rhetoric about Ukraine is very similar to points that Stan mentioned in his post.

If you have not red Angus Roxburgh's book "Strongman", I suggest reading it. He writes among other things about Ukraine 2004 presidential elections and has made interviews with Putin's spin doctors, who helped Yanukovich during his campaign. Nice reading about Russian thinking. Nazizm, violence etc.

Here is Novorossiya area map, that Putin mentioned.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/19/wo...s&emc=rss&_r=1

[carl]

Russia would know how long it would take and could plan accordingly.

Still don't blame them for arming themselves as the US nuclear umbrella is unreliable.

Exactly. Which is why this is all so dangerous and could spiral out of control so easily. Russia would know when the front line nations would start to nuke up and approx how long it would take. They would have to act to forestall that. Poland would fight and countries like Sweden, Finland and all the other front line nations may ally with them in order to fend off Ivan, for they would know that they would be next. And Turkey, I should not forget about Turkey. They are in the group of front line nations too I figure.

Then there is Israel. Israel knows that the stronger Russia gets, the worse the world climate is for them. It would be in their interest if Russia were preoccupied with central Europe and stayed preoccupied with central Europe. And Israel has lots of nukes and lots of experience working on the sly with other countries to develop nukes. Who knows, there may develop a group of small and medium nations coalescing around Israel's nuke know how their common interest being fending off the Russians.

None of the above figures on what the other countries of the world will do when they see this happening. There are lots of other countries that could go nuke anytime they wanted too with relatively little trouble, countries like Australia, Thailand, Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Indonesia and on and on.

This is extremely dangerous, fate of the world kind of danger. I don't think people, especially the American political elites for the most part, realize this.

[kaur]

JMA, Putin will march as far as opponents will let him go. At the present day his dream is this project. His last presidential campaign was built around this issue. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasia...Economic_Union

Without Ukraine this project is not so perfect. Half of Ukraine was drifting EU direction, second half Eurasian union direction. Western Ukraine to EU and Eastern part to Eurasian. Last November before EU Eastern partnership summit it was clear that Ukraine can't signe at the same time association agreement with EU and join Eurasian union. Putin made nice last minute offers to Yanukovich (gas price plus 15 billion loan), but it didn't work. Maidan started. Putin decided to act. Now we see results. As you see Moldova is next in this kind of bad situation EU vs Eurasian union.

The wierd thing is that Putin didn't mention once Eurasian union during his last q&a session, at the same time he spoke several times about plans to restore good relations with EU. He said same about US. He managed to hide his Eurasian union ambition and spoke about tactical level actions. At the same time he is enjoing super ranking at home. One survey said that people will not tolerate this kind of win if their wellfare will be hit. Biggest euphoria is in country side.

[mirhond]

17.03.2014

Проект Постанови щодо першочергових заходів у зв'язку з військовою агресією Російської Федерації

Supreme Rada.

Draft on emergency measures due to Russian agression.



text of the draft
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/w...pf35401=294360

2) на час військової агресії запроваджується смертна кари для зрадників, диверсантів, мародерів, убивць, дезертирів і шпигунів.

In time of military agression death penalty is applied to traitors, saboteurs, marauders, murderes, deserters and spies.

Bolsheviks applaud in the Heaven, Trotzki raises a glass of nectar.

upd.

Ukrainians are hilarious:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...pli=1&sle=true

З початком збройної агресії забезпечити силами військ спеціальних операцій та заздалегідь направлених диверсійно-розвідувальних груп нанесення ударів по військовим об’єктам вглибині території агресора, а також об’єктам управління у його адміністративних центрах (в першу чергу – Москві та Санкт- Петербурзі). За можливості необхідно фізично усунути від влади політичне керівництво Росією – в першу чергу Президента та Прем’єр-міністра.

At the beginning of agression strike on the military targets into the depth of enemy territory(especially in Moscow and St-Petersburg). Assasination of president and prime-minuster of Russia is essential, if possible.

Lo and behold, mortals, of the great undertaikings of Maidan!

The wierd thing is that Putin didn't mention once Eurasian union during his last q&a session,

It isn't weird, because there is no such thing as Eurasian Union, unless you follow the philosophic school of subjective idealism

[Stan]

Yep, a bit egotistical to quote myself herein, but what the hay

Going back to the link, click on the 2013 pdf in English.

The use of soft power only attracts the attention of national security institutions if it forms a part of the influence operations of a foreign state, and the understanding of the Russian authorities of what soft power means is an example of that.

One method in Russia’s influence operations is to use extremists to
achieve Russia’s foreign policy goals.

The annual Estonian Internal Security Service (ISS, also known as KaPo) report was published today, with a blue-yellow design as a nod toward Ukraine.

[Stan]

Hey Mirhond !

It would be great if you managed to find an English version from these links, as most of us are not Russian nor Ukrainian, and, while you enjoy only translating two passages, the remainder of those "funny Ukrainian" documents may have something more to tell.

17.03.2014 Supreme Rada.

Draft on emergency measures due to Russian agression.

text of the draft
http://w1.c1.rada.gov.ua/pls/zweb2/w...pf35401=294360


In time of military agression death penalty is applied to traitors, saboteurs, marauders, murderes, deserters and spies.

Bolsheviks applaud in the Heaven, Trotzki raises a glass of nectar.

upd.

Ukrainians are hilarious:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...pli=1&sle=true



At the beginning of agression strike on the military targets into the depth of enemy territory(especially in Moscow and St-Petersburg). Assasination of president and prime-minuster of Russia is essential, if possible.

Lo and behold, mortals, of the great undertaikings of Maidan!

[mirhond]

It would be great if you managed to find an English version from these links, as most of us are not Russian nor Ukrainian, and, while you enjoy only translating two passages, the remainder of those "funny Ukrainian" documents may have something more to tell.

No, I won't, because I don't think this stuff is translated, but I could translate the main ideas from it.

first one:

Ukraine will never recognize the annexation of Crimea
president must declare full mobilization of the army and militia and ask for NATO help
break all diplomatic ties with Russia and denounce agreements about fleet and partnership
apply to EU and NATO membership
increase tolls on gas transit
prevent any separatism by iron fist.
forbid Communist and Regions parties as collaborators.
forbid Russian media
criminal liability on anyone who participate in separatist's meetings or create obstructions for army movements
In time of military agression death penalty is applied to traitors, saboteurs, marauders, murderes, deserters and spies.

second one:

Russia is going to invade Kiev, overthrow the regime, occupy South-East and cut Ukraine from the sea. Ukraine can't handle intervention with current shabby armed forces, so it has to create 5 army corps to cover 2 most dangerous directions - Kharkov and Lugansk. So, battle plan is to inflict untolerable losses to enemy by all means and ask for NATO to create air and sea superiority.
At the beginning of agression special forces must strike on the military targets into the depth of enemy territory (especially in Moscow and St-Petersburg). Assasination of president and prime-minuster of Russia is essential, if possible. NATO commandos will take care of Crimea.

By charity foundation "Maidan of foreign affairs" (sic!)

I think the guy who wrote it plays Heats of Iron III too much.