Who are the Crimean Tatars, and why are they important?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/wo...ssia.html?_r=0
This is a really good post
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...3&postcount=97
Reminds me of this - http://youtu.be/Hgq4w4dqKsU
Hey Steve !Originally Posted by Dayuhan
A little late as the Nordstream pipeline is in full swing. Vovo (Vlad) and Gerhard Schröder are best buds and the Germans want that gas
They have already cut out most of the Baltic States and rerouted since 2007. The Ukraine was intended to support Southstream but lost out to Bulgaria.
Deep Sigh from a slightly snowy Estonia !
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Who are the Crimean Tatars, and why are they important?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/wo...ssia.html?_r=0
This is a really good post
http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...3&postcount=97
Reminds me of this - http://youtu.be/Hgq4w4dqKsU
Last edited by AdamG; 03-02-2014 at 11:13 AM.
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg
Anyone read a repeat of the Sudeten Crisis building?
Very true... and also very true that Germany doesn't have a single LNG terminal, so even if they did have a sudden impulse to replace Russian gas with imports from the US, the ME, or elsewhere, it would take years and billions before the impulse could be indulged without relying on terminals in Belgium and FranceA little late as the Nordstream pipeline is in full swing. Vovo (Vlad) and Gerhard Schrder are best buds and the Germans want that gas
They have already cut out most of the Baltic States and rerouted since 2007. The Ukraine was intended to support Southstream but lost out to Bulgaria.
The point I was trying to make to Carl was that while the Europeans can reduce their reliance on Russian gas (with time, commitment, and considerable expenditure), the US has no magic lever it can throw and reduce that dependence.
Enjoy your snow... we just got back to the mountains after a bit of beach time
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Not good logic.
Why would reliance on terminals in Belguim and France be a problem?
You want to rethink this?
I checked the facts about water and electricity and it is correct to say that the Crimea has no big power plants as there are indeed a range of smaller hydro plants in the South. It will hardly cover the demand but it is something. Most of the drinking water comes from the Southern mountains, although there have been contamination issues.
-----
The Crimean economy depends to a large degree on tourism so it is interesting to look into that matter. After some early numbers what do have some guys on the street to say?
The last two comments are pretty golden. "I have a business, tourist season is beginning, I can't have a war" sounds like a good slogan for peace.
Ludmila Marchenko, a retired teacher, simply burst into applause when asked about the masked soldiers with automatic rifles standing guard nearby.
"At first we were in shock, now we see it as a liberation," the 66-year-old told Reuters.
Those residents who felt foreboding as they watched the armored vehicles roll mostly hung back in the crowd.
"This is a mess. This is an invasion. I think this is an act of aggression by Russia," said Dmitry Bessonov, 55, a retired miner from Donetsk.
"They made a big mistake when they stood on Maidan and said they wanted to ban the Russian language ... We don't want to be second-class citizens," said Marchenko's brother Vitaly, a civilian sailor.
"I am not against a united Ukraine ... Yes, our president was not great. Yes, there was corruption and theft, but we don't want to live under these conditions. We are just sick of these speeches by fascists and neo-fascists."
"It is a great joy for is," said Vladimir Tikhonov, 53, an electrician. "I want this to be Russian land and it will be."
Valentina Magomedova, an accountant whose curiosity drew her to the scene, said people regretted a decision by Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, himself a Ukrainian, to transfer the Crimea from Russia to Soviet Ukraine in 1954.
"The new authorities (in Kiev) are not legitimate. We trust Putin, we love Russia," she said. "We were part of Russia and we are sorry still that Khrushchev gave us away."
While most residents had no love for Kiev's new leaders, some were worried by the dangers of the situation and wary of Russia's designs. Confronting the mute soldiers, one man vented his frustration, "What are you doing here? Get lost."
"I have a business, tourist season is beginning, I can't have a war," he said under his breath, shaking his head and turning his back on the 10 trucks and five armored vehicles.
A nearby restaurant decided to shut its doors early and keep them shut for the next few days.
"That's me losing my salary, if this keeps up," said Natalia Fomichova, 35, a lively blonde waitress at the seaside restaurant, overlooking opulent private motor boats parked in Balaclava bay.
"No one asked us. We are like puppets for them ... We have one Tsar and god - Putin," she quipped.
Keep in mind that almost 70% of the tourists are Ukrainians and only a quarter Russians. So the slight Russian speaking majority does indeed heavily rely on it's fellow countrymen to get a salary.
The national government has also likely payed the pensions for the teacher and the minder. With the occupation in the Ukraine how will it function? Looking at the demographics of the Crimea a large share, especially among the Russian speakers rely on pensions.
I think Putin has understandably moved the 'referendum' forward as the Crimea will take increasingly heavy economic damage over time. Maybe he will try to buy a good share of them with strong financial support but it is hard to imagine working that efficiently and justly. Nobody outside Russia beside a couple of allies will in any case take the outcome of any Crimean vote under the Russian boot seriously.
So time seems to work actually in favour of Kviev.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
One word: capacity. A move to replace Russian pipeline imports with LNG imports would require a huge expansion of existing terminal capacity.
LNG ports are large and complex single-purpose installations that require considerable time and very large investments to build or expand. Given the amount of gas Germany imports, the absence of any existing (or planned) LNG terminal is an indication that the Germans are not putting any great effort into reducing their dependence on Russian sources. Germany can't simply decide to shut off Nordstream and replace that 55 million bcm/yr with LNG imports. They could find the gas (though they'd push the price up), but the existing LNG terminal capacity couldn't accommodate it.
Europe overall gets roughly 80% of its gas from pipelines and 20% from LNG. Equalizing that figure will require large investments in new regasification terminals and pipeline infrastructure. Using LNG from alternative sources to replace Russian gas is possible long term but it is not a short term solution, and it's not just a matter of finding available gas.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Isn't Google wonderful... a few minutes and you can present yourself as an expert on just about anything.
You want to post your source?
Ukraine is calling up the reserves. I wrote before that this was the most likely path because nobody can put any faith in what comes out of Moskva. Perhaps they limit themselves to the Crimea but at least the invader will not have it all it's way in the rest of the country.
Indeed that is given if your country gets invaded. Now the diplomatic line seems to be to call a spade a spade...Yatsenyuk in Kiev: this is red alert. This is not a threat, this is the declaration of war on my country
It is important to keep in mind that understandably that the current situation is foggy, fluid and uncertain. The Russian invadors have of course occupied the Crimea and disarmed some of the tiny Ukrainian forces on it but there are some who defy the 'suggestions' of the occupiers.Ukraine mobilised on Sunday for war and called up its reserves, after Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to invade in the biggest confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.
Ukraine's security council ordered the general staff to immediately put all armed forces on highest alert, the council's secretary Andriy Parubiy announced. The Defence Ministry was ordered to conduct the call-up, potentially of all men up to 40 in a country that still has universal male conscription.
After the confusion and the reluctance to provoke any sort of violence within the Crimea such actions might actually result in deadly force between both sides. Lots of potential friction, hopefully there won't be new bloodshed.Igor Mamchev, a Ukrainian navy colonel at a small base near the regional capital Simferopol, told Ukraine's Channel 5 television he had refused to surrender.
"A truck with troops of the Russian Federation, armed with rifles, helmets and bullet-proof vests arrived at our checkpoint and suggested we give up our weapons and accept the protection of the armed forces of the Russian Federation," he said.
"I replied that, as I am a member of the armed forces of Ukraine, under orders of the Ukrainian navy, there could be no discussion of disarmament. In case of any attempt to enter the military base, we will use all means, up to lethal force.
"We are military people, who have given our oath to the people of Ukraine and will carry out our duty until the end."
Ukrainian marines were barricaded into a base in Feodosia, a Crimean port. Russia appealed for them to back the "legitimate" - pro-Russian - regional leadership.
Their commander, Dmytro Delyatytskiy, told Ukraine's Channel 5 by telephone Russian troops had demanded they give up their weapons by 10 a.m. and they refused.
"We have orders," he said. "We are preparing our defences."
The Russians have cut off all the traffic between the Ukrainian mainland and it's peninsula. Digging trenches. So they are cutting off themselves and people of the Crimea with it's economy.
Last edited by Firn; 03-02-2014 at 02:09 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
An overview from Moscow, by a former Soviet Army colonel who has worked for a US think tank for a long time IIRC:http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...war?CMP=twt_gu
From the strategic political to the tactical and weapons used. A short photo essay on the cough unofficial military in the Crimea:http://imgur.com/a/3DzA0/layout/blog
A curious filmed exchange between a Ukrainian navy officer and visitors:http://censor.net.ua/video_news/2737..._voobsche_chto
What I did note from some film footage from crowded places in the Crimea was that the civilians are overwhelmingly middle aged.
Last edited by davidbfpo; 03-02-2014 at 02:16 PM.
davidbfpo
I think I mentioned that earlier, not surprising if you look at the demographics and the older 'Russian' generation is perhaps more nostalgic and feels perhaps less Ukrainian. It fits also the opinions off the street which I have read. The younger will also have more business to do.
This video captures the situation so far pretty well. Lots of heavily armed masked men on one side, a couple of at best lightly armed men in dress uniform on the other.
UA= Ukrainian army
RU= Russian army
Translation from YT user Tina Kinal:
UA: and you are not on my territory?
RU: we are following the order.
UA: no, this is my car. this is a state owed APC. you want peace? so do it peacefully.
RU: ho can we do it peacefully with you?
UA: ho can we do it peacefully with you? what are you doing here on my territory?
RU: take a car away
UA: so you can take all my armor away?
RU: take the boxes away and take Kamaz away
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
Obviously it is really troubling that somebody might close the 'Moscow-Crimea road' which just runs through pretty much all of eastern Ukraine. How shocking that there are armed men on their side of the border.MOSCOW (Reuters) - The governor of Russia's Belgorod region said on Sunday armed groups had tried to cut off a road leading to Ukraine, Interfax news agency reported.
"Armed men are roaming the area ... There was an attempt to close off the road from Moscow to Crimea," Yevgeny Savchenko was quoted as saying about events on Saturday. "This is really troubling."
(writing by Elizabeth Piper, editing by Timothy Heritage)
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
BBC reporting that it is the intent of the Government in Kiev to ask for UK/US assistance. Any similar news on requests for assistance from Kiev to either Poland or Germany?
Ukrainian national security officials announced several other measures on Sunday:
The armed forces would to be put on "full combat readiness"
Reserves to be mobilised and trained
Foreign minister to seek help from US and UK leaders in guaranteeing its security
Emergency headquarters to be set up
Security to be boosted at key sites, including nuclear plants
Airspace to be closed to all non-civilian aircraft
Pretty similar to the treaty on which grounds Britain decided it felt binded to defend Belgium a hundred years ago. I don't know what exactly the treaty says but the Ukrainians are clearly looking at all the options and possibilities which strenghten their position.10.38 Very interesting that Ukraine is now referencing "safety of its nuclear assets".
As far as I'm aware this is the first time they have mentioned that.
Then it brings into play the 1994 Budapest Memorandum - which was signed between Ukraine, the US, UK, and Russia. Ukraine agreed to give up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, in return for the signatories promising to come to Ukraine's defence in case of aggression.
Read more about it here
It is sadly all too easy to find grim references...
And god is always with 'us':
Orthodox brother against orthodox brother...
Oh and Kerry is finally using the words I started to use after I saw those Russian SF storming the Crimean parliament.
You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pre-text.
Last edited by Firn; 03-02-2014 at 03:44 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
A couple of posts ago I wrote that this Russian invasion into the Ukraine will greatly undermine the Russian influence in the rest of the country, even among those who voted for the ex-leader which fled to the invader. Now perhaps his most important supporter has come out against the Russian invasion. Quite convient of course, but there certainly is good for your finances to be regarded as ally of Yanukovych:
Right now the Ukrainians are faced with the classic war dilemma leaving little to gray: Are you for the attacked Ukraine or the invading Russia?14.38 Ukraine's richest man and the chief financier of deposed president Viktor Yanukovych has denounced Russia's incursion and called for Ukrainians to preserve their country's territorial integrity.
Russia's "recourse to force from outside is unacceptable. The crisis can only be resolved peacefully," said Rinat Akhmetov, one of the former president's closest allies.
Mr Akhmetov said in a statement:
Quote I call on all citizens to unite for a united and indivisible Ukraine. We must keep cool heads, not succumb to provocations and take well-considered decisions.
Like Yanukovych, Mr Akhmetov comes from the pro-Russian region of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, where his financial holding company System Capital Management is based.
Mr Akhmetov, said by Forbes magazine to be worth more than $15 billion, was twice a member of parliament for Yanukovych's Regions Party.
Kerry again:
I will also bleed because I was foolish enough to trust the Russian leadership. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Sadly I only saw through the Russian fog of war on Friday after the stock market closed down.He added that G8 nations and some other countries are “prepared to go to the hilt to isolate Russia” with a “broad array of options” available.
They’re prepared to put sanctions in place, they’re prepared to isolate Russia economically, the ruble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges.
Last edited by Firn; 03-02-2014 at 04:03 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140...ia-Forces.htmlSIMFEROPOL, March 2 (RIA Novosti) – Ukrainian servicemen stationed in Crimea are leaving en masse their military units and handing over weaponry and arsenals to local pro-Russia authorities and militia, a RIA Novosti correspondent reported Sunday.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry immediately denied the report, which was also circulated by other Russian media, calling it “a provocation.”
See also http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/
Now this is good popcorn...
http://rt.com/news/us-military-ukraine-radicals-440/Ukrainian radical activists are conducting organized searches of residences of former government officials and handing over all documents to the US military, a man who says that he took part in some of these operations claims.
A scrimmage in a Border Station
A canter down some dark defile
Two thousand pounds of education
Drops to a ten-rupee jezail
http://i.imgur.com/IPT1uLH.jpg
I'm sure there's a general consensus about the credibility of the pre-text of the Russian operation, but we (the West) only have ourselves to blame for the frustration caused by our helplessness in this situation.
First, the West invented the concept of responsibility to protect, which the Russians have used (so far successfully) at least twice (Ossetia and Crimea). And in their justification, the Russians cite US operations in Libya, Iraq, and Yugoslavia. Although world opinion seems against the Russian action (due to the use of armed force, not on the basis of the responsibility to protect), the US is clearly also with little credibility in condemning the Russian government on this basis.
Second, from November 2013 to February 2014, the US actively promoted political agitation in Ukraine for the removal of Yanukovych for a second time from office, even though his last election was certified by international monitors as legitimate. Senator John McCain was in Ukraine in December clearly promoting the removal of Yanukovych and Ukraine's movement towards the West. And Washington clearly broke from the European initiative, which had a negotiated agreement for early elections and a new constitution. Washington wanted Yanukovych out, but there apparently was little forecasting down for the end-game. Washington had no solution for Ukraine's coming financial crisis, for establishing the new government's legitimacy, or for defending Ukraine from Russian intervention - which, by the way, should have been predicted given the fact that not only is Ukraine closely integrated with Russia economically, geographically, and demographically, but that also Russia has a significant military presence within and near the country itself. So Washington facilitated this crisis but was also unprepared to deal with the fallout.
Whatever happens to Ukraine now, if it joins NATO and the EU, it will only do so as a rump state. And whatever gains Brussels wanted will not be achieved, and Washington's gains will be relatively insignificant in comparison to what was imagined several days ago. Moscow on the other hand literally has boots on the ground and is actively shaping the situation in its favor; Crimea is lost, so any political settlement will include confirming Russian access/control there. The open ended question is (1) eastern Ukraine, there is already pro-Russian political agitation, and (2) Ukraine's financial situation.
But there are also other implications. First, it's clear that Washington's power relative to that of other states, specifically Russia, is waning. Washington's policies in Ukraine were short-sighted and now it's left with no credible options that do not further escalate the crisis beyond Ukraine's borders (i.e. deploying NATO troops to Poland). Washington tipped over the canoe without a life-jacket. Moscow's domestic problems are minimal and it's economic relations with Europe are arguably still very strong, so Moscow is in a very strong position to project power abroad. Washington is not postured appropriately to defend against an assertive Moscow in Europe, or to do so in the long-term, given the state of the defense industry and the political situation in Washington.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
I have a problem with your narrative. It smacks of the Cold War. The Soviet Union was a direct threat to the United States because it advocated exporting worldwide a political and economic system that was a direct threat to capitalist democracy. For that reasons the two sides played a game a chess (or chicken) with each other with the world as their playground. That is not the case today. Russia has a direct interest in the Crimea. It was part of Russia until it was given to the Ukrainians. It houses the Russian Black Sea Fleet. There is a substantial Russian population (never mind the fact that the large Russian population is the result of Stalin removing the native Tartars). This is not the Soviet Union trying to exert influence over a small Island in the Caribbean (ala Granada). We have little direct interest in this case. So to portray actions in the Crimea as a US/Soviet Union conflict is reading the situation wrong. The Crimea was never the U.S.'s to lose.
I would agree, the West meddled in the affairs of the Ukraine. But it is our stance that we do this to help the local peoples achieve political freedom. We can use the exact same arguments the Russian's are using in the Crimea to aide the Ukrainians. Bottom line, this is best resolved through local choice. Naive, perhaps, but to play this out as a replay of the Cold War, as many are trying to portray this as, is to create a narrative that does not exist.
Russia has acted in a way reminiscent of the Cold War, but we should not invoke the entire narrative. One that would demand military action in kind. Russia will lose in the end, because the Ukraine that remains will be very interested in joining NATO, finally bringing the alliance they respect, if not fear, directly to their doorstep.
Last edited by TheCurmudgeon; 03-02-2014 at 06:04 PM.
"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."
Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
---
I think in one sense the Cold War never ended. Washington exploited the collapse of the communist system to probe deeply into historical Russian spheres of influence -- and Washington routinely dismisses Russian objections under the ideological cover of promoting the free market and democracy. But even within free market democratic systems there is intense, even anti-democratic, competition, and Ukraine is no different. It was not acceptable to Washington that Ukraine was not firmly within Washington's vision of a capitalist America-oriented Europe (it should be noted that Washington's solution to Ukraine's financial problems, which triggered this episode, was to offer IMF conditional loans attached to deeply unpopular austerity measures). The removal of Yanukoych was the policy objective even if, as you state (and with which I agree), the United States has no direct interest. I agree that Moscow has legitimate and material interests in Ukraine. The difference is that Moscow secured its interests with a military operation.
EDIT: In addition, I think (1) Washington has clearly reached the apex of its influence, meaning that short-sighted, almost reckless policies, should be abandoned; (2) Washington should be negotiating with Moscow on issues, like in Iran and Syria, rather than testing the limits of relations, and (3) Americans, specifically American politicians, need to realize the practical limits of American exceptionalism and reevaluate the country's place in the world.
What is Moscow losing that it doesn't want or need in the first place? Washington is not in any position to dictate to Moscow, and Brussels is firmly tied with Moscow economically. Berlin and Paris specifically are less interested in confrontation with Moscow than Warsaw or any of the Baltic states. Moscow also has leverage in Tehran and Damascus than Washington notable lacks -- aside from the threat of military force, which is not politically feasible given America's domestic political and economic situation. There are clear divisions in NATO vis-a-vis Moscow policy, so it may be in hindsight that the expansion of NATO in the 1990s could become a political liability for the credibility of the alliance.
Last edited by AmericanPride; 03-02-2014 at 06:22 PM.
When I am weaker than you, I ask you for freedom because that is according to your principles; when I am stronger than you, I take away your freedom because that is according to my principles. - Louis Veuillot
@AdamG: There is no doubt that confused Ukrainian forces gave up their weapons more or less readily after heavily armed masked men turned out in ever greater number. Some, mostly of Russian ethnicity might even have willingly gone over. The Russian invader came through the fog of war like a thief in the night and caught them completely unprepared. Who knows what happens now to those who surrendered their weapons. I'm pretty sure they will get pressured to work for the Russian propaganda.
It is likely that with the strategic surprise gone and resolve growing that quite a few units in the Crimea will hold out for now. Obviously they just have no real military value but a symbolic one.
@American Pride: I actually agree with most of your first part but I think your view in the second part is too mechanistic and badly grounded. It is important to keep in mind that a lot of things can happen, even some unthinkable ones. Who would have imagined that Putin would pull off a old Soviet-style invasion in the Crimea? Who believed that his Ukrainian ally would flee to him and that the people would talk a walk in this palace?
I think the current Ukrainian leadership got duped Mr Putin but it is acting surprisingly wise so far. Pretty nobody outside Russia and it's allies can accuse it to act aggressively or provocative and it has started to take the right steps. The idiotic language law has been vetoed, the reserves get finally mobilized, the UN, EU, NATO, EU etc are involved and it is clear who the aggressor is.
Ukrainians at home and abroad are asking good questions:
An excellent job on that poster, sums it up very nicely.
Last edited by Firn; 03-02-2014 at 06:27 PM.
... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"
General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935
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