Another good comment.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ls/498846.htmlThe operational strategy and tactics used in Crimea depended to a large degree on the presence of a Russian base and others factors. Forces in the Southern Military District were on heightened alert and readiness because of the Sochi Winter Olympics. Russian forces were able to operate in a friendly, largely Russian-speaking environment, and Moscow knew, probably in great detail, the disheveled condition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
In this sense the operation could be difficult to replicate elsewhere, even if the political will exists in Moscow to attempt some economically unsustainable policy of land grabbing from neighbors. For example, the self-proclaimed Transdnestr republic is effectively cut off from a Russian military perspective, meaning it would be much more difficult to accomplish such an operation and largely depend on insertion by air. The same problems would be encountered in the Baltic states, but they have nothing to fear because Putin would never attack a NATO member.
I suspect it will just be other companies from the various battalions of theOriginally Posted by TheCurmudgeon
173rd Airborne Bde. Maybe if it lasts more than a year or so, it may include units from the Guard/Reserves similar to the rotations in the former Yugoslavia. But that will take some convincing of a bunch of governors and state AGs I think.
Vir prudens non contra ventum mingit
The greatest educational dogma is also its greatest fallacy: the belief that what must be learned can necessarily be taught. — Sydney J. Harris
Folks, keep in mind 40 k is less than a divisional slice in Western parlance.
The Western politicians who are raising alarms about Russian 'troops concentrations' have no reason to downplay their extent by counting combat troops or troops in manoeuvre formations only. I strongly suppose they're counting all of them.
And 40k army troops aren't many. Seriously, that's about the size of the Bulgarian army.
20k, 40k, 100k - the figures don't really matter. What matters is whether and how quickly the current crew in Kiev gets its act together and gets loyal armed forces under its control. They may need to purge ethnic Russians from their army and maybe join two manoeuvre formations into one to get enough loyal troops, intact equipment and spares, and this (or other measures to the same end) takes time.
It doesn't take 12_years_for_the_mayor_of_Kabul time, but it takes some time - probably months.
I am not so sure. It takes a while to gt things rolling at the Pentagon. My guess is that there will be a good, better, best set of options given to the administration.
This is not Iraq or Afghanistan. Russia has a Air Force and Satellites. We can't bluff. We can't hide. Whatever action we take (or fail to take) Putin will know about within a matter of hours. To be credible, it has to be substantial and comprehensive.
Of course, we may have already given up on the Ukraine, but I am not getting that impression yet.
"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."
Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
---
That's a good point. It did not seem like the troops sent into eastern Ukraine were particularly loyal. Who knows what the officer corps is like.
"I can change almost anything ... but I can't change human nature."
Jon Osterman/Dr. Manhattan
---
Schröder is a retired politician and not even held in high regard in Germany, unlike his predecessor's predecessor, who as a 95 year old gets attention when he gives advice as an elder statesman.What's the deal with the Germans ? You mean Gerhard ? Everyone knows he is best buds with Vova, but to influence the entire German population with 1.7 million Turks to boot
The Turks are politically and bureaucratically close to zero influence in Germany. There's but one national level politician of Turkish descent (a mere member of the federal parliament, not of the ruling coalition) and I know only one notable state-level politician with Turkish roots. They have no lobby to speak of.
Germans largely ignored the Ukraine since antiquity. The annual sum of news reports about the Ukraine in 2012 maybe matched the time spent watching the Ukrainian music group during the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest.
There's simply no motivation to do anything drastic in response to the crisis in the Ukraine.
I suppose it's a good national trait to not be easily fired up into a hostile stance.
Last edited by Fuchs; 04-24-2014 at 12:43 AM. Reason: ö
Actually it is a complete crock: I don't think you'll find a single serious oil market analysts that buys into the story that the glut was deliberately contrived as a weapon against the Soviets. That's just not what happened. It matters, because now we're hearing some people thinking we can use oil prices as a weapon against the Russians.
The Soviet Union broke up for multiple reasons, but first and foremost among those reasons was that Communism just doesn't work. It wasn't necessary for any outside power to break the Soviet Union up. The West found a viable containment line, enforced it, and waited for the internal contradictions to catch up. That took time, but averted a war that could have produced extinction for the species. Worth the wait, I suspect.
How would they be materially stronger? The Ukraine isn't exactly an economic asset, and could easily become a liability if the consolidation of power becomes awkward. Containing Russia will be easiest if it's not just the US in play: if the Europeans are fully cooperating with economic leverage (they have a lot more than we do) and increased participation in their own defense. That may mean finding a line at which Europe will become alarmed and participate.
Europe matters because they have the economic leverage that's needed to put a real long-term price on what Russia is doing. Trying to pursue containment without a viable alliance with common motivation across the board is going to be a whole lot more difficult. I think you're looking at this purely in terms of military deterrence. Not sure that makes sense.
Do you think Reagan would have gone to war with Russia over the Ukraine? I don't. Avoiding direct military confrontation, especially along the other party's borders has been a consistent practice on the part of nuclear powers since the start of the Cold War, goes back to that whole mutual assured destruction thing. That doesn't mean all kinds of other maneuvers can't be made, of course.
The question is what, when, and where. Answering that question requires a bit of pragmatism and a reasonable assessment of threats and assets.
Of course... that whole game of "spy vs spy" has been going on a long time. He tries to make excuses, we try to counter and preempt them. Catching and exposing would-be provocateurs or holding referenda to preempt the Russians and show that areas do not feel threatened and do not desire re-union with Russia accomplish as much as deploying armor. If Putin can't find or create an opportunity and an excuse he can always just invade without one, but that changes his risk calculations dramatically.
Again, I don't think any US administration of the nuclear age would have gone to war with Russia over Crimea, or any part of the Ukraine. It's not a question of who's in office, it's a question of whether the Ukraine is important enough to the US to take the risk of going to war. It's not. He knows it. So do we.
Appeasement is a policy of making political or material concessions to an enemy power in order to avoid conflict. That doesn't necessarily refer to any particular case.
Are we ready to have a showdown over the Ukraine? Are allies in place? re we working with a functioning government that has full control over it armed forces? Have we mustered the economic leverage for a prolonged confrontation? Are we confronting on terms advantageous to us, or on terms advantageous to our adversary?
If we're going to pursue confrontation, we want to be sure we do it in the way least likely to produce armed conflict and most likely to produce a long term win. That means being both careful and pragmatic about choices on when, where, and how. Letting the antagonist dictate these conditions does not seem a good idea to me.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Stan---notice how though Germany has gotten extremely quiet as they were always for diplomacy as they are basically and will always be anti war anything.Outlaw,
Great to hear; maybe she will do the same herein and after.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Vova wanted 512 ships by 2030, and, he stressed the need for Russian companies to learn Western technologies. He was also going to go Far East for that high tech sierra. In fact, South Korea and China were or still are considered strategic partners.
While the Ukraine may be in the top ten for metal, they are high hurdles from Finnish and Chinese metal and ship production capabilities. And, the corruption levels found in the Ukraine are limited only by one's imagination. So, Putin should find himself right a home
Nope, I doubt any support will come from NATO. We jumped the gun with 600 soldiers and 12 aircraft as if that was threatening. Bravo Sierra. What's the deal with the Germans ? You mean Gerhard ? Everyone knows he is best buds with Vova, but to influence the entire German population with 1.7 million Turks to boot
I doubt our military leadership does not comprehend, but I do believe our administration is lost in a euphoria of post elections. Unless he does a Clinton, he will cruise right through to retirement unscathed.
I sincerely doubt NATO would exist without its largest contributor bordering on 75%. Hard to split the sole financial source excluding the building in Belgium. Similarly, I think that UN thing in NY should be in Shanghai along with the duds inside. The EU can't afford to walk away from US.
They are not happy with Obama's moves and there are some quiet questions emerging in the German newspapers questioning NATO's abilities.
Also notice the rivalry between Poland and some of the other EU countries on creating a standardized energy process which they want cola and nuclear and Germany has moved on and the eastern EU countries with the Poles wanted to be able to get a far cheaper gas price as they can when they negotiate as individual countries.
The Russian strategic use of UW/political warfare has three components and splitting the US from NATO/EU is indeed one of them and right now the subtle indicators are there.
The Duma speech indicates that-and Putin has often spoken of the disappearance of the unipolar world with the US as the single power.
By the way the conventional army is still trying to understand UW meaning their do not understand the strategic piece---they got the tactical understanding of it, but UW used in a strategic fashion---they are lost.
Also goes for the concept of political warfare---not a single senior leader/thinker from DoD has ventured into this realm in the last weeks---they are far more interested in a "soft landing" for 3000 officers due to be cut in the next month and who have to be out then 60 days later than say figuring what Putin is up to.
Who said we an fight a two front war did not calculate the RIFing of officers in the middle of an issue.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-24-2014 at 06:21 AM.
Fuchs,
That was exactly my point. Other than being best friends with Vova, he has no influence.
My point was also "why is this German's problem".
Looking back at this article, it appears the Turkish influence is gaining ground.
This shift matters because German elections, run on a proportional representation system, are often decided by narrow margins. Ayse Demir, a representative of the Turkish Community in Germany, a countrywide organisation campaigning to persuade ethnic Turks to vote, says: “We can decide the election.”
ther ethnic Turks say they also appreciate Ms Merkel’s high-profile meetings with German Muslim representatives and calls for deeper integration. Far from feeling alienated by her party’s conservative Christian values, they identify with its religious core. As Dr Gulmez, a devout Muslim, puts it: “This is a party with values.”
If you want to blend in, take the bus
The Ukraine seems to be slowly but steadily clearing captured positions sometimes with armed (with baseball bats) civilians taking the lead other times with actual force backed up by light armor.
Guess two sides can play the agitated civilian game.
This is an interesting read.
http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-e...ts-344749.html
Added by Moderator:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27138300
Last edited by davidbfpo; 04-24-2014 at 11:30 AM. Reason: add link
The number of dual Turk/German citizens is rather low thus they have a very limited to no influence in local German and or national German elections most come from mixed marriages and have completed schooling in Germany.
The idea of a dual citizenship especially for the Turkish side is a highly charged debate as the Germans want a single passport and the Turkish side is holding to two passports because of the Turkish military draft fearing the lost of draft age Turks living in Germany who are still drafted and must go back to Turkey or lose their passports ie citzenship.
NATO responses: It’s clearly a signal, but obviously not enough.
Stan yesterday asked why had the USA moved lightly armed US Army paratroopers into three eastern NATO members territory.
Not unexpectedly the NATO AWACS fleet has been deployed, it works under the control of SACEUR. With at least one plane based in Rumania. As reported by NYT:http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/24/wo...b-russia.html?
I note this article refers to last week's "buzzing" of a US destroyer in the Black Sea, by a Russian aircraft:Really? I don't recall any mention of that at the time. One trusts that the military-to-military 'hotline' was used to prevent misunderstanding....a squadron of NATO fighter jets that chased it away.
Part of the headline comes from Mr. Pabriks, the former Latvian defense minister, when he refers to five minesweepers coming to the Baltic ( two from Norway and one each from the Netherlands, Belgium and Estonia) as:They’re not battleships, of course. It’s clearly a signal, but obviously not enough
davidbfpo
Stan, the German party landscape is fragmented and there's no party for Turks.
The greens are very Turks-friendly, but ideology-wise just not appealing to Turkish-born people.
The conservatives are ideologically more appealing to them, but at times annoyingly pro-Christian.
The social democrats may suit them, but then again they're now very similar to conservatives.
The pirates are only relevant among well-educated young people.
The socialists may attract votes, but they're pariahs on the national level and don't get into a ruling coalition.
The 'Turks' with German passport have no German party to represent them as a group, so their influence is close to zero. Besides, the "Turks" are actually split in "Turks", "Kurds", "Tatars" and others. And about a million voters among 50+ million voters are no heavyweight anyway in a proportional voting system.
David---have not seen an open EU/NATO discussion on just why did NATO/US disarm via the requirements of the 1999 and 2000 OCSE agreements placed on each country and yet Russia was allowed to maintain their full armored strength and not disarm much as the Russians while signing the EUMM agreements over Georgia in 2008 "agreed" to troop strengths that have been violated since 2011 and Russia now has over 17 bases in both enclaves which has to be overkill or they are there for so other reason.
NATO/US has as well not called Russia out for their violation of the INF---if one takes everything that the Russians have not done as agreed to since 2008 one might say either we the West simply did not care as we had moved on or we totally misread Putin much as the quote attributed to F. Hill in one of your links and are now paying for it.
What a misread---but as she stated it was all there to be seen.
Russia has been planning these moves for a very long time if we go back and analyze it---definitely since 2008.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-24-2014 at 01:09 PM.
Kaur,
President Ilves told the Ukrainians this months ago.
What a shame that our 2007 lesson, free of charge, fell on deaf ears.
Close the borders
Find the money
All Russian passports are suspicious
How difficult to follow ?
But, we don't have Russian sympathizers on our borders
I'm glad that one educated man has written article about our discussion here. Beards, AK-100, KGB etc
This strategy of undermining Kiev is cheap, easy, cynical and effective. But it also means that when some kind of political settlement is reached, it will be harder to control these militants.
Just as Maidan Square, the source of a popular uprising, has become the crucible of violent nationalism, the militants from the pro-Russian side have dug in their heels in the battle for Ukraine. They will unlikely be comfortable returning to their normal lives. It is hard to see the thugs of Slovyansk and Mariupol duly handing in their shiny new guns. The new breed of local "commanders"— often linked with organized crime — will need to be co-opted or crushed.
In short, Moscow's decision not to fight this conflict through conventional means and with its own men may mean that it wins the war, but it will have a much harder time keeping the peace after that.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
The CFE treaty involved cuts for Soviet Union/Russia as well, but made allowances because Russia has Asian defence needs.
http://www.osce.org/library/14087
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_...rces_in_Europe
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adapted..._Europe_Treaty
(Look at the ratifications list!)
In the end, the CFE treaties were quite unimportant because the treaty parties have voluntarily cut deeper than required.
I remember that 98 mm mortars were developed in Poland and other countries to circumvent the limitation on ordnance of 100 mm calibre and greater - they were never produced in quantity because the ordnance limits proved to be irrelevant.
The Russians have furthermore begun to scrap their hordes of obsolete MBTs long ago. Their inventory of T-55s and T-62s is melting - literally.
Now this is an interesting piece of current history---over on the inforesist.org link that David referenced there is an article on a new Russia Medal being given out for the Return of the Crimea.
What they point out is really interesting especially when one reads the dates of the campaign which by the way Russians put great faith in dates on their medals from an historical point of view since they tend to wear them even on civilian clothing.
The start date of the Return of the Crimea was stamped in the medal as being 20 Feb 2014----anyone find that odd since the EU/Ukrainian agreement was not until 21 Feb and then the President fled on 22 Feb.
So did the Russians actual slip up in their hectic to get out a medal and actually reveal that the former Ukrainian president was part and parcel of this current Russian campaign against his own people and it actually began on 20 Feb and not later as argued by Russia---meaning after the president fled?
An interesting read it is.
http://inforesist.org/experts-named-...ia-up/?lang=en
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 04-24-2014 at 01:46 PM.
Fuchs---the key is they are still not in compliance on the numbers and yes they are melting but it is the old 55/62 and to some degree the 72s which really were for export anyway.
It is the numbers and their argument was they were at war with the jihadi's and could not come into compliance---and what has been the argument for their non compliance with the numbers in Georgia under the EUMM---they did not even mention it nor has the West.
The West took the numbers and reduced what they had in their then current inventories under the thought that hey the Cold War is over and Russia seems to be getting to a more peaceful point so hey let's save defense money and go down on our overall defense budgets using OCSE as the excuse. Besides who needs tanks and APCs in AFG or anywhere else for that matter.
That was in the end a massive mistake and now they are only able to muster what planes, mine clearing ships and AWCS. Even the German tank brigades say in Amberg and other locations have been decommissioned in the current German downsizing that is still going on.
Here comes the not so subtle threat to both the Ukraine and NATO/US taken from Interfax today---interesting to see where Obama takes this while he is in Japan.
Thought Russia said those troops were not near the border?
16:48 RUSSIAN BATTALION TACTICAL COMBINED-ARMS GROUPS FROM SOUTHERN, WESTERN MILITARY DISTRICTS START DRILLS IN RESPONSE TO SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST UKRAINE - SHOIGU
16:48 SHOIGU: IN FRAMEWORK OF DRILLS AVIATION TO CARRY OUT FLIGHTS TO EXERCISE ACTIONS NEAR STATE BORDER
Beard thing is solved here
http://time.com/74405/exclusive-pro-...stern-ukraine/
Stan, it seems that it is easier to say than to be done in situation, where Kiev has lost monopoly of violence.
Last edited by kaur; 04-24-2014 at 02:46 PM.
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