Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[AmericanPride]

I actually agree with most of your first part but I think your view in the second part is too mechanistic and badly grounded. It is important to keep in mind that a lot of things can happen, even some unthinkable ones. Who would have imagined that Putin would pull off a old Soviet-style invasion in the Crimea? Who believed that his Ukrainian ally would flee to him and that the people would talk a walk in this palace?

I agree in part. Anything can happen, and it is a very fluid situation right now. But I disagree that the Russian military operation and Yanukovych's flight to Russia could be classified as unexpected. Six years ago, Moscow conducted a "surprise" invasion of Georgian-claimed territory but given the conditions, capabilities, and provocations, that too shouldn't have been surprising. Moscow has been clear from the beginning with its objections to Washington's interference in Ukraine's political process but was ignored. Washington was adamant on forcing the ouster of Yanukoych and apparently very little thought was given to the possible outcomes. And the collapse of the political deal negotiated by Brussels last month more or less sealed the fate of the country. There are reports that Russian consulates are busy handing out citizenship papers to ethnic Russians in Ukraine (don't know if it's limited to Crimea); there were similar reports in the South Ossetia War. When Moscow announced the military drills, activating aerospace and airborne forces, that was the signal that it was too late for Washington to act.

I think the current Ukrainian leadership got duped Mr Putin but it is acting surprisingly wise so far. Pretty nobody outside Russia and it's allies can accuse it to act aggressively or provocative and it has started to take the right steps. The idiotic language law has been vetoed, the reserves get finally mobilized, the UN, EU, NATO, EU etc are involved and it is clear who the aggressor is.

Medvedev has been clear that Moscow will not negotiate with the new Ukrainian government in Kiev because the new officials are viewed as illegitimate; he basically said that Moscow has no one with which to negotiate. Of course, that's also self serving to Moscow, but it has a grain of truth to it, given some reports of parliamentarians being forced from parliament at the point of a gun. And I think here's the point: both Washington and Moscow have interests, some of which are contradictory, in Ukraine; but Moscow is much better positioned to actually see their policies through. Is Moscow the "aggressor"? Yes - but only in one sense. Moscow is responding decisively to actions facilitated by Washington and by events in Kiev. Why would Moscow watch idly in an uncertain situation following the collapse of it's ally's government?

[Firn]

Dnepropetrovsk. This part of Ukraine doesn't seem to be 'lost yet' as the Ukrainian anthem says. If I remember correctly 60%+ voted there for the fugitive. I was correct, see the maps:





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Euromaiden ridicules the 'strong support' for the Russian invasion of the Crimea.



Everybody tries of course to depict the situation in it's own colours but I certainly did not see vast amounts of people on RT or other Russian media. Possibly the Russian leadership and media is caught off guard as this part of the war doesn't seem to work out as planned.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

From the twitter account of Maxim Tucker:

Long queues at #Ukraine army recruitment posts.Sergeant tells volunteers 3 million signed up in 24 hours, eager to fight #Russia in #Crimea

@andersostlund Source is me - my friends, husbands of friends and fathers of friends en masse

I would love to see sources about this, 3 millions seem to be off by a magnitude. However long queues to sign up do not sound unlikely if we remember what happened a hundred years ago. It was easy to forget that millions of men were indeed streaming enthusiastically to fight for their respective fatherland, which was done wrong in their eyes.

[AmericanPride]

Firn,

The Russian media has been pretty aggressive in attempting to shape the narrative for its domestic audiences. It reported that Ukrainian military units in Crimea are surrendering, that Kiev protesters were dominated by fascists, that ethnic Russians in Ukraine are at great risk, and so forth. There's also news about very large protests in Moscow and St. Petersburg in support of Russian military operations.

There's really not much the new government in Kiev can do. Moscow already controls Crimea. Unless military action is taken, I think the political end-game will be opening soon.

[Firn]

@American Pride: Indeed Russian controls the Crimea as I have written before. Right now Ukraine has not the slightest hope to retake it by military means, and it would be foolish to do so. While the Crimea depends on the mainland for irrigation water, electricity, natural and more it may actually be wise to keep the lines open.

The Russian have seemingly cut the road and rail lines by themselves so they are now blocking off the Ukrainian peninsula of supplies for the 2 million civilians. I'm sure that the Russian military is working hard to make up for the shortfall and it is early days but time is in this regard likely working against the invaders. The big tourism sector depends mostly on domestic Ukrainian demand but that has been poorly substituted by Russian brigades. Sounds like a bright future for the common people, ethnic Russian or not. Only massive economic aid from Russia can counter it to some degree...

Overall the Ukrainina government can do a great deal and does already so, I have already written on that.

------------------

The mobilization is starting:

The Kyiv post has some pictures about men coming in to join the military:

On March 2, men from Kyiv flooded the city’s 10 district recruitment centers, eagerly waiting in line to receive their orders. Many, like Andriy, were called late at night and instructed to appear the next day.

Others however, volunteered to enlist. A representative from the recruitment office in Kyiv’s Pechersk district said that more than 500 men enlisted at his office on March 2. Over half were volunteers.

The majority of men were excited about the opportunity to serve their country. As he shuffled out the door after signing up, one man exclaimed, “We are ready to fight! We want to fight!”

Others, however, are worried about what a violent confrontation with Russian troops might mean. “Scary, scary, scary. We don’t know why he was chosen,” said the mother of one potential soldier "We can only hope for the best.”

Indeed.

I'm pretty sure that it will take a long time to get the men and their units ready as nobody suspected that such a thing could actually happen. Still it is quite a change from the first days of the invasion.

[Firn]

The Kyiv post has a highly interesting article about how "Oligarchs step in to save Ukraine’s sovereignty".

Kolomoisky, whose wealth Korrespondent magazine puts at $3.5 billion, is a leader in the Jewish community in Dnipropetrovsk, which could dampen Kremlin propaganda that the EuroMaidan Revolution is an anti-Semitic movement.

His business interests include chemical production, finance, media, metallurgy, oil extraction and sports. News media reported that Kolomoisky had been providing financial support for the Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, Vitali Klitshcko’s liberal political party that holds 42 seats in parliament. However, Klitschko denied this repott.

Not everybody accepted. Desperate times aske for desperate measures, and I think that some hope to protect their status, wealth and security.

Political observer Vitaly Portnikov reacted by calling these “wartime appointments” accepted by responsible businesspeople “in the face of aggression.”

Since the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych as president on Feb. 22, speculation has increased over the prospect of reprivatizing assets owned by the largest businesspeople who purchased them from the state at rock-bottom prices under non-transparent auctions held by the State Property Fund.

Oleksandr Bondar, the former State Property Fund chairperson who is seen as a candidate to take this position again, publicly declared his support for reprivatizing some properties.

However, as long as oligarchs hold their seats in the government administrations, the chances of reprivatization are slim.

------------------------

According to a Russian paper important news from the eastermost oblast of the Ukraine, with the largest percentage of ethnic Russians IIRC. 2010 voted 80%+ for the fugitive, so it is not unlikely that there is truth in it. Will we see another Russian invasion?

Luhansk Oblast Council doesn't recognize new Ukraine government

March 2, 20:20 p.m. -- The Luhansk Oblast Council doesn't recognize the legitimacy of Ukraine's new government, Kommersant.ua reports. The regional council "considers illegitimate all central executive branches of power because they were formed with violation of laws," reads the statement of the council. Also, the members support the holding of a referendum on federalization that would allow regional governments to ahve more autonomy. The memmbers called on the Verkhovna Rada "to declare Russian language a second state language in Ukraine, to take immediate measures to disarm all illegal armed groups and to cease politically motivated prosecutions of police and Berkut riot-control police units," according to the statement. The council also declares support for Oblast Council chairman Valery Holenko. -- Olena Goncharova

The Luhansk Oblast contains roughly 5% of the total population, a bit more then the Crimea.

he population is largely Russian-speaking although ethnic Ukrainians constitute a majority (58%). Among the minorities are native Russians (39%), Belarusians (0.8%), and others (1.4%). Ukrainians constitute the majority in all raions except for Stanytsia-Luhanska Raion and Krasnodon Raion, both of which are east of Luhansk. Ethnic Russians also constitute the majority in regionally significant cities, such as Krasnodon, Sverdlovsk, Krasnyi Luch and Stakhanov.

According to the 2001 Ukrainian Census more than 68.8% of the population consider themselves Russian speakers, while Ukrainian speakers were only 30%. The Russophone population predominates in the southern portion of the region and around the city of Luhansk, while the northern region is less populated, mostly agricultural and Ukrainophone.

Its population (as of 2004) of 2,461,506 million constitutes 5.13% of the overall Ukrainian population. The Luhansk Oblast rates fifth in Ukraine by the number of its inhabitants, having an average population density of 90.28 /km². About 87% of the population lives in urban areas, while the remaining 13% reside in agricultural areas. According to the national census, 54% of the population are Ukrainians and 42% are Russians.

[carl]

Would increasingly aligned interests between Russia and Turkey to more closely partner in energy distribution to Europe for profit and influence eliminate that problem?

Flagg:

Sorry it took so long to get back to you.

For Russia to have certain, read certain, use of the Bosporus and Dardanelles Turkey and Russia would I imagine have to get as close as the US is to Canada or France is to the UK. I don't think whatever economic arrangements that may or may not come to be will overcome centuries of hostilities between the two countries. I suppose it could happen but given Vlad's disposition the Turks would have to bow down, and from what I've read of Turks, that ain't likely.

So the upshot is even with the Crimea, the Black Sea Fleet can only go where the Turks, and NATO, feel like leaving it go. With all the trouble Vlad is going to, they're still bottled up.

[TheCurmudgeon]

EDIT: In addition, I think (1) Washington has clearly reached the apex of its influence, meaning that short-sighted, almost reckless policies, should be abandoned; (2) Washington should be negotiating with Moscow on issues, like in Iran and Syria, rather than testing the limits of relations, and (3) Americans, specifically American politicians, need to realize the practical limits of American exceptionalism and reevaluate the country's place in the world.

(1) I agree that we reached the Apex of our influence, but Washington reached the apex of its influence when we invaded Iraq. Ever since then we have lost credibility. We existed as a morale giant, an omnipotent beast that you did not want to disturb. Iraq burst the bubble of that illusion. Not only are we not the moral center of the universe but there are clear limits to what we can do. We cannot regain the moral high ground until we stop drone warfare - targeted extrajudicial assassinations with "acceptable" levels of collateral damage and close our CIA jails. We are now just like everyone else, except with a bigger economy and more guns.

(2) I disagree here. Washington has nothing to gain by negotiating with Moscow. Washington needs to be negotiation with Peking. China is the key player in these events. We need to convince them that Russia under Putin is a wildcard and that China and the US need to be building a closer military relationship. Our economic interests are mostly aligned. This presents an opportunity if we chose to take it.

(3) I agree. Unfortunately, that illusion of exceptionalism is what keeps certain politicians in office. To admit that we have lost ground in the world and leveraged our entire budget doing it is to admit the failure of the Bush administration. Not going to happen.

What is Moscow losing that it doesn't want or need in the first place? Washington is not in any position to dictate to Moscow, and Brussels is firmly tied with Moscow economically. Berlin and Paris specifically are less interested in confrontation with Moscow than Warsaw or any of the Baltic states. Moscow also has leverage in Tehran and Damascus than Washington notable lacks -- aside from the threat of military force, which is not politically feasible given America's domestic political and economic situation. There are clear divisions in NATO vis-a-vis Moscow policy, so it may be in hindsight that the expansion of NATO in the 1990s could become a political liability for the credibility of the alliance.

Moscow has always had an interest in keeping NATO at bay. They liked the protection the satellite states gave them. They liked having their "near abroad" as a buffer to the Western world. They have lost that now, unless they can somehow influence the Ukrainians to once again join their orbit.

I think that, perhaps, Putin realized that he had lost the Ukraine and was going to grab what little he could in the Eastern states to maintain that buffer. But I don't believe he has the ability to risk all out war in Western Ukraine. I could be misreading this, but his actions have been measured. He did not try to take all of Georgia. I don't think he will try to take all of the Ukraine.

[carl]

I don't know how all this will turn out. It mostly depends on if Vlad pushes north of the Crimea and how inclined the Ukrainians are to fight. And I don't really know how inclined they are to fight.

But I found this interesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-I7DMSz9Hs

[Firn]

I suspected that Merkel would not use the same words and take the same actions as the USA, France and Britain. Maybe it is a good thing, although it certainly doesn't look a strong reaction to the Russian aggression.

In a telephone conversation during which Merkel expressed concern about developments in Ukraine, she and Putin agreed that Russia and Germany would continue consultations in bilateral and multilateral formats to seek the "normalisation" of the situation, a Kremlin statement said.

Note it is a Kremlin statement. But the German FM has already said that he wasn't in favour of throwing Russian out of the G8. According to the guardian:

Merkel to Putin: Russia breached international law

Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has accepted a proposal by the German chancellor, Angel Merkel, to set up a “fact-finding mission” that would pave the way for some form of political dialogue in the crisis.

That’s according to a spokesperson for the German government, who has been giving Germany’s account of a conversation earlier between the two leaders.

The mission would possibly to be led by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Merkel is also said to have accused Putin of an “unacceptable Russian intervention” and of breaching international law.

Might the fact-finding group allow some face-saving for those involved?

-----------

I usually don't read the WP but I agree fully with this part of the commentary

The point is for the United States, leading Europe, to counter Russian pressure and make up for its blandishments/punishments until Ukraine is on firm financial footing.

Yes, $15 billion is a lot of money. But it’s less than one-half of one-tenth of 1 percent of the combined E.U. and U.S. GDP. And expending treasure is infinitely preferable to expending blood. Especially given the strategic stakes: Without Ukraine, there’s no Russian empire.

Putin knows that. Which is why he keeps ratcheting up the pressure. The question is, can this administration muster the counterpressure to give Ukraine a chance to breathe?

I wrote a long time ago that a €30 billion loan spread over a couple of years would be a good start. Even a €100 billion one is not much if financed by the EU member states and the US. This is not a time to do ridicule the own interests by comitting pitful sums.

While I would steer well clear of any military confrontation, the financial power can be easily brought to bear.

[carl]

One thing people should keep in mind is highlighted by something George Will said on one of the Sunday shows this morning. He said Russia is a third world economy with a first world army. That may be overstating things but not by much. The main point is they don't have an economy that matches Vlad's ambitions. Their GDP is eight in the world, just a smidgen above that of Italy. They can't really back up what they are doing and will depend upon Vlad's baleful stare into cowing others into passivity. If that doesn't work, they will be in trouble.

And all that isn't to mention their woeful demographic problem.

[carl]

Very true... and also very true that Germany doesn't have a single LNG terminal, so even if they did have a sudden impulse to replace Russian gas with imports from the US, the ME, or elsewhere, it would take years and billions before the impulse could be indulged without relying on terminals in Belgium and France

The point I was trying to make to Carl was that while the Europeans can reduce their reliance on Russian gas (with time, commitment, and considerable expenditure), the US has no magic lever it can throw and reduce that dependence.

Enjoy your snow... we just got back to the mountains after a bit of beach time

Dayuhan:

Not to put too fine a point on it, no kidding.

Russia gets it leverage over countries not contiguous to it from energy supply (and chutzpah). If those countries have alternatives, their leverage goes down. No kidding that building the infrastructure will take years. But the years do actually go by and if those countries want to do it, all they have to do is start. Perhaps recent events might make them want to more.

Russia could find other customers but that is where the shale gas technology comes into play. Because of that tech the overall world price of gas will come down, has to. And as it does there will be less money for Vlad to make mischief with. Besides if Russian did find customers in the east as you suggested, they may have to build infrastructure to get the gas there.

Oh I don't know. Looking at how much gas we have in the country and how great the price differential can be between here and Europe, I figure we may just supply them with quite a bit over the next decade or so once things get up and running. Take that Vlad, you corrupt killer!

[AmericanPride]

They can't really back up what they are doing and will depend upon Vlad's baleful stare into cowing others into passivity. If that doesn't work, they will be in trouble.

Russia isn't a third-rate power; it's not the superpower it once was, but it's also not a backwards third-world tribal state either. This is the second time in six years Moscow has successfully projected military power beyond its borders -- with the added bonus of co-opting European interference and precluding American intervention. It's about time the West wakes up to the fact that Russia has sufficient economic and military weight to not be glibly ignored when formulating policy. The measure isn't whether Moscow can successfully wage war against the West; that's not the point. The point is that Moscow does not have to because it still maintains a credible nuclear arsenal as well as the political unity and military strength to assert its interests beyond its borders. Russia's vulnerability is that it's not yet so fully integrated into the Western system that it can use its indispensability as a threat, like China.

I wrote a long time ago that a €30 billion loan spread over a couple of years would be a good start. Even a €100 billion one is not much if financed by the EU member states and the US. This is not a time to do ridicule the own interests by comitting pitful sums.

I don't see this happening without painful conditions attached. Whatever the criticisms of the political system in Russia, it enables Moscow to deliver these kinds of incentives without complicated domestic negotiations. In Washington, in contrast, there are so many competing private and public interests that often the incentives are woefully insufficient or tied to unreasonable conditions. The IMF offer of loans on the condition of austerity measures unpopular in the rest of Europe is one example; its acceptance would bring Ukraine it to the West but at great domestic turmoil that in itself could threaten the stability of the government in Kiev. There is not a clear alignment between the financial interests here and the democratic interests; it will potentially give more credibility to the "fascist" elements in Ukraine (like in Greece and elsewhere in eastern Europe) that Moscow is already using as part of its justification for intervention. Ukraine, unlike Russia, will not be able to independently escape the problems imposed by this kind of shock treatment to its economy imposed by the international community.

[TheCurmudgeon]

I would love to see us revisit the issue of whether Russia is the legal successor of the prior Soviet Union's permanent seat on the UN Security council.

[carl]

Outlaw 09 over at the Blog is doing a bang up job on this situation in the comments section of Nato Needs to Move Now on Crimea article. Between him and Firn it is like having your own intel squad without having to pay them.

Below are a list of Outlaw's suggestions of things that can be done, Right Now, to pressure Russia. They are mostly economic steps and they seem quite doable and effective. They get their power from the fact that Russia's economy is weak and can be got to.

"Step 1:
HAS anyone ever seen on any given day the amount of Russian truck traffic on the German A10 highway coming out of the Russian economy via Poland that is so dependent on EU trading? Thousands per month---NOW stop the traffic-- in fact the Ukraine as well as Poland can stop the traffic and see what the reaction will be---immediate!

The Russian economy is spiraling downward, they need foreign investment and many foreign companies are in fact leaving, and the Rubel is sinking---Russia itself is struggling economically so use the economic weapons available.

Step 2: Stop the next G8 meeting and institute a removal of Russia as they had for years fought to get in---so make it now painful to continue in the "Club". Go to the WTO and file charges for manipulating their gas prices via Gazpom to gain undue economic advantages.

Step 3. Enforce a total economic freeze on all Russian oligarch accounts outside of Russia for the entire length of time Russian remains inside the Ukraine---in fact the recent actions to freeze accounts of proRussian Ukraine oligarchs in Eastern Ukraine by Austria and Switzerland and rumored the UK was a shock wave that is now causing some of them to turn "moderate" in their comments. Watch the reaction by the oligrachs-immediate! Institute travel/visa restrictions on all Russian citizens worldwide.

Step 4. Place every Russian naval vessel that leaves the Black Sea under nearby constant surveillance and start patrolling outside territorial limits for the length of the Russian stay in Ukrainian territory.

Step 5. Review of all Russian commercial flights into and out of the EU and the US/Canada---then reduce them for the length of time the Russians remain inside the Ukraine.

Step 6. A constant calling in and discussing the issue with the Russian ambassadors stationed in EU/NATO/US countries.

Step 7. Curtail the blossoming military to military meetings between the US Army and Russian Army.

Step 8. Call for the former Ukrainian President to be arrested for murder of civilians and the theft of over 70B from the Ukrainian people."

[carl]

Russia isn't a third-rate power; it's not the superpower it once was, but it's also not a backwards third-world tribal state either. This is the second time in six years Moscow has successfully projected military power beyond its borders -- with the added bonus of co-opting European interference and precluding American intervention. It's about time the West wakes up to the fact that Russia has sufficient economic and military weight to not be glibly ignored when formulating policy. The measure isn't whether Moscow can successfully wage war against the West; that's not the point. The point is that Moscow does not have to because it still maintains a credible nuclear arsenal as well as the political unity and military strength to assert its interests beyond its borders. Russia's vulnerability is that it's not yet so fully integrated into the Western system that it can use its indispensability as a threat, like China.

You're wrong. Russia is a third rate power, and what I agreed with was Will's comment that it was third world economy with a first world military.

Russia's GDP is barely above that of Italy. Russia's population is around 143 million and Italy's is around 60 million. An economic powerhouse it ain't.

In 2008 they fell on little contiguous Georgia and just now they took Crimea where they had a preponderance of military force already in place. Neither one of those is anything to brag about. They have had an insurgency in their south for many years that they can't get a handle on. In my view they got mostly nerve with no economy to back it up. Plus that pesky demographic problem.

Russia can be hell on its contiguous neighbors if they are small enough and they don't fight. Ukraine has about 45 million people. If Russia can't cow them into inaction and a fight starts, the Russian economy probably can't handle it, especially if the sanctions of Outlaw 09 listed above were to be effected.

[Firn]

@carl: All I do is trying to understand the situation and sometimes offer my opinion on it. Tomorrow I will for obvious reason not be able to devote a tenth of my time to whole situation.

I think it is important to bat as long it is possible in the own confort zone and to the own strenghts. The EU and the USA reacted slowly before it picked up pace, which is quite understandable as I doubt that even a small number of political or military insider saw this brazen Russian invasion coming.

Putin on the other hand has prepared this totally unexpected attack on the Ukraine for at least a week and had his forces nearby. I have written before that this was something out of a Soviet textbook minus the killing - till now.

The council of the Luhansk Oblast seems to get played in the same way the Crimean was. After the Russian actions in the Crimea who are we to rule out that they have done so under massive, maybe armed threat? With the Russian troops prepared on the frontier it is absolutely feasible that Russian tanks might roll over the border to 'protect' the Russian ethnicity there. Who knows, but who dares to rule such an action out?

The West has considerable leverage over the Russian elite and economy and considerable ressources to easily support the Ukraine. Some of the steps mentioned above are very painful indeed.

I also think that Russia might underestimated the willigness of the great majority of the Ukrainians to defend their country of the Russian aggression. It will take considerable time but the Ukrainians might be able to increase their military power a great deal over the next weeks.

Maybe I will tomorrow comment again but now I will have to get some sleep. I'm sure I never spent so much time in front of the PC on a Sunday in a long long time. But it was a very important day in the history of the Europe and the World. I hope that it won't become a tragic, bloody story...

Good night.

[carl]

Firn:

You're efforts are well appreciated.

[AmericanPride]

You're wrong. Russia is a third rate power, and what I agreed with was Will's comment that it was third world economy with a first world military.

Eighth of 193 countries places Russia in the top 5% of countries by GDP. That's not something to snub your nose at - and, arguably more important, Russia ranks first in the size of a country's total nuclear arsenal.

Russia's GDP is barely above that of Italy. Russia's population is around 143 million and Italy's is around 60 million. An economic powerhouse it ain't.

Does that make Italy (9th), India (10th), and Canada (11th) also "third-world" economies? Your definitions and understanding are very loose in their application.

In 2008 they fell on little contiguous Georgia and just now they took Crimea where they had a preponderance of military force already in place. Neither one of those is anything to brag about. They have had an insurgency in their south for many years that they can't get a handle on. In my view they got mostly nerve with no economy to back it up. Plus that pesky demographic problem.

If "neither one of those is anything to brag about", why is everyone up in arms? Why is NATO divided in its response? Why was Washington caught flat-footed a second time now by Moscow? You just stated that Russia has a "first-world military". Moscow's success here, politically and militarily, is no less important for it than Washington's in Libya and Serbia. What does the "demographic problem" have to do with seizing Crimea? Moscow has never had overseas ambitions so how is Georgia's proximity relevant?

Russia can be hell on its contiguous neighbors if they are small enough and they don't fight.

Georgia didn't fight? The 1,200+ dead and wounded Georgian soldiers (or their families) would disagree. Strong powers don't pick on other strong powers - that's the point here. And that's why Washington has no meaningful options. Washington has had problems imposing universal sanctions in the past - Cuba, Iran, etc where economic interests diverge. Why would Europe (specifically Berlin) go along with sanctions on the world's 8th largest economy?

The Obama administration's reply here will be relatively minor compared to the coup pulled off by Moscow, and much of the angst in the United States is because we are powerless to stop it. And because of this superpower complex in Washington, any constructive political outcome will likely come from Europe instead. The US is not a position to escalate relations with Moscow into Cold War 2.0; not with the current state of the economy and the pending demobilization of the armed forces.

[AdamG]

@AdamG: There is no doubt that confused Ukrainian forces gave up their weapons more or less readily after heavily armed masked men turned out in ever greater number. Some, mostly of Russian ethnicity might even have willingly gone over. The Russian invader came through the fog of war like a thief in the night and caught them completely unprepared. Who knows what happens now to those who surrendered their weapons. I'm pretty sure they will get pressured to work for the Russian propaganda.

It is likely that with the strategic surprise gone and resolve growing that quite a few units in the Crimea will hold out for now. Obviously they just have no real military value but a symbolic one.

Then again, the defectors could just self-identify as Russian more than Ukrainian and 'gone over' quite willingly.

The Ukrainian Naval Infantry garrison hold-outs don't want to start the shooting, as much as the Russians don't want to start shooting. First side to pull a trigger loses.

[AdamG]

Putin on the other hand has prepared this totally unexpected attack on the Ukraine for at least a week and had his forces nearby. I have written before that this was something out of a Soviet textbook minus the killing - till now.
.

Huh? The US gave a warning about meddling in the Ukraine on 22Feb14, but.. well, read this;

Russia watchers say military manoeuvre was long in the making
. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a8833b6-a...#ixzz2uqXrrTRd

Now, as Russian troops stand in Ukraine, those worries appear prescient. Military experts say the way Russia moved against its neighbour shows all the signs of an operation prepared meticulously over a number of weeks, with the participation of the FSB, the successor of the Soviet Union’s KGB security service, where Mr Putin and many of the most influential members of his administration started their careers.

*

Sources familiar with the Russian security services and military believe that FSB agents have been working in Ukrainian cities for at least several weeks to prepare for what played out over this last weekend.

“They probably played a role in setting up some of those pro-Russian militias in Crimea, and they certainly had a big hand in organising the pro-Russian demonstrations and anti-Maidan rallies,” says a foreign diplomat in Moscow who handles his country’s liaison with the Russian security services.

He also believes that Russian agents participated in the Maidan demonstrations – both on the side of the protesters and among the Berkut, Ukraine’s riot police, to facilitate an escalation of events.

*
Foreign intelligence officials now lean towards the theory that Mr Putin decided even before the Olympics to remove Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich from power as he had come to believe the former leader would eventually ruin Ukraine’s economy and could not be trusted to keep Kiev in Russia’s sphere of influence.

*

With this force in place and pro-Russian militias milling around in Crimea, military special forces then moved to seize key assets including the parliament building and the region’s two main airports, opening the doors for the paratroopers.

All this was flanked by an aggressive disinformation campaign which appears aimed at justifying a military intervention and goes far beyond the normal practices of Russian state media. In this light, some Russian journalists have started questioning Mr Putin’s decision before the Olympics to replace two respected state media heads with loyalists.

Russian foreign policy officials say the option of using military force against Ukraine was on the table in internal discussions early on, but a fight within the administration over the final decision was raging until a few days ago.