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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #1441
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    Great powers do what they can - or think they can - get away with. You as a German would know this.

    The Us and its western side-kicks did what they could get away with.

    Now Russia is doing the same because the US and the West has ceased to be a deterrent to Russian action.

    This has nothing to do with right or wrong or morality but all to do with power... again you as a German would know this.


    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    Accept that the Crimea was an incredibly low-hanging fruit which fell into Russia's hands for almost no effort - for a good reason.

    Next, re-establish and reinforce an international climate in which aggressions are prohibited effectively - including the Westerners.


    The U.S., the UK, Israel and France have become much too casual in bombing or invading foreign countries under pretences which wouldn't (and don't) pass in the UNSC (and wouldn't so even if Russia and the PRC had no veto privilege).

    Estonia has ratified a treaty called the "North Atlantic Treaty" in 2004. The invasion of Iraq 2002 was a clear violation of this treaty.
    Do you expect the government of Estonia to protest loudly and try to inflict some pain (such as kicking out some diplomats and CIA spies) once the U.S. president decides to casually bomb a country with cruise missiles the next time?
    If not, Estonia would have little moral right to expect a less troubling neighbourhood.
    Don't expect an unfriendly great power to be restricted by the rule of law if you side with great powers who de facto claim that only rule of force applies to them.

  2. #1442
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    Fuchs, your last post reminds me this episode.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/eu...rj.irq.chirac/

    I was reading this article. Argument was clash of civilizations.

    http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...izations-10441

    What kind of culture modern day Russia is cultivating? Is this narrative ok to west? They have cultivated the victim story since 1991. They have will to get revanche. Should west help Russia to aquire (feeding state buget) enough capacities achieve revanhce?

  3. #1443
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    Stating the obvious that all but the blind can see:

    Putin’s dangerous game

    He sends out so many mixed messages that no one is really sure what he wants. But for a clearer picture, we need only look at what he does: and his arrival in Crimea, like a latter-day conquering hero, was calculated to encourage separatists in Donetsk.
    Then again, his every move is being encouraged by the vacillating responses from the West.

  4. #1444
    Council Member Johannes U's Avatar
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    Default France and Germany threaten Russia ...

    with tougher sanctions if Russia accepts the Donezk-Referendum but not the presidential elections ...
    what was the book about the beginnings of the 1st WW called: the sleepwalkers .......
    Last edited by Johannes U; 05-10-2014 at 03:46 PM. Reason: forgot a word, spelling
    L'audace, l'audace, toujours l'audace. (Napoleon)

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  5. #1445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuchs View Post
    You're more than a decade behind the curve.
    Darn. late to the party again.
    "We fight, get beat, rise, and fight again." Gen. Nathanael Greene

  6. #1446
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    FYI



    (I suppose the size is OK, considering the nature of the graphic.)

    25th ABN was disbanded for unreliability (surrendering of AFVs to rebels). It was their only mechanised airborne outfit (BMD-1, BMD-2).

  7. #1447
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    mirhond, thank you! No answer is also answer

  8. #1448
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    Poll Finds 94% of Russians Depend on State TV for Ukraine Coverage

    The Levada Center, a Moscow-based independent research organization, revealed that 94 percent of the population relies on domestic television networks to follow developments in Ukraine and Crimea. The outcome of the poll, which was conducted in April, was based on the opinions of a representative sample of 1,602 adults across 45 regions.
    The Levada Center found that 44 percent of respondents think foreign media outlets are "not very objective" about the situation in Ukraine, while 50 percent consider Russia's state media outlets to be "generally objective."
    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/a...ge/499988.html

    France won't cancel warship deal with Russia: sources

    France will press ahead with a 1.2 billion-euro ($1.66 billion) contract to sell helicopter carriers to Russia because cancelling the deal would do more damage to Paris than to Moscow, French diplomatic sources said on Monday.
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4B05920140512

  9. #1449
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    Geography lessons with American ministry of truth

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs3Im-YES5E

    Ukraine is located somewhere in Pakistan.

    ps. I love CNN and Foxnews! They always amuse me with wondorous discoveries, like palm trees in Moscow, for example

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7EZJQiAlxio
    Last edited by mirhond; 05-13-2014 at 12:06 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kaur View Post
    Just tell us with couple words what was the "golden age lost by sins of fathers"! How many times should I say "Please!"
    I can tell you in one word: fantasy. Most nations have at least one "golden age" myth, some have several. Connection to historical reality is neither necessary nor advantageous; it's an appeal to emotion, and the desire to believe in the epic greatness of the past seems ingrained in the race. It works.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  11. #1451
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    CNN also also needed years to recognise the independence of South Sudan.

  12. #1452
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    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    Sooner or later Russia must be emasculated - like with Germany after 1945 - otherwise this expansionism will not stop.
    The expansionism will stop when/if the perceived cost and risk to the leadership clique exceeds the perceived potential gain to the leadership clique. (I don't think the people calling the shots are too concerned with the cost/benefit equation for "Russia" generically, only for themselves.) I see no particular reason why that would require the emasculation of Russia. As Fuchs has pointed out, the strategy so far seems to focus on the gathering of low hanging fruit, though in the case of Crimea the fruit was already on the ground and needed only to be picked up. I see little reason to interpret that as a conquering juggernaut that can only be stopped by emasculation, unless of course you really want to. Trying to raise the fruit a bit might be easier and less risky than trying to emasculate the scavenger.

    Quote Originally Posted by JMA View Post
    The fuel for this dream of reinstating the Russian/Soviet Empire is the oil/gas driven economy. To control the Russians this must be targeted.
    Very bold, but how do you propose to do that?
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

  13. #1453
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    The expansionism will stop when/if the perceived cost and risk to the leadership clique exceeds the perceived potential gain to the leadership clique.
    Given your knowledge of the Russian/Ukrainian situation what circumstance will that be?

    (I don't think the people calling the shots are too concerned with the cost/benefit equation for "Russia" generically, only for themselves.)
    Can you elaborate on that?

    I see no particular reason why that would require the emasculation of Russia.
    Perhaps if this territorial aggression was likely to end with Ukraine. But is it? Will there be no more?

    As Fuchs has pointed out, the strategy so far seems to focus on the gathering of low hanging fruit, though in the case of Crimea the fruit was already on the ground and needed only to be picked up.
    Fuschs says a lot of things, much of which is plain wrong. In this case though he is correct in that the US and the EU are currently impotent and unable to act in concert to reverse this Russian aggression.

    I see little reason to interpret that as a conquering juggernaut that can only be stopped by emasculation, unless of course you really want to. Trying to raise the fruit a bit might be easier and less risky than trying to emasculate the scavenger.
    Well if like with Germany after 1945 you want to be sure that they will no longer be able to stage any acts of military aggression Russia gets emasculated in one of a couple of ways. Then peace in Europe will become a reality.

    Very bold, but how do you propose to do that?
    Why ask me, I won't be doing it.

  14. #1454
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    Dayuhan:

    the strategy so far seems to focus on the gathering of low hanging fruit, though in the case of Crimea the fruit was already on the ground and needed only to be picked up.
    How you define the height from the ground?

    When Vladimir Putin justified his annexation of Crimea on the ground that he owed protection to Russian speakers everywhere, this newspaper took a dim view of his line of argument, pointing out that since linguistic borders do not match those of states, it would lead to chaos.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-w...#ixzz31bQcKfQN
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  15. #1455
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    Outlaw and others,
    don't underestimate the power of ideology and narrative.

    I've seen how quite normal Russia-friendly people turned 150% pro-Kremlin during the Ukraine crisis. This happens when they access the official Russian view of events and buy into it.


    I've also observed that conservatives and right wingers tend to fall for Putin's 'charm'. He's a de facto autocrat and they like it. He's homophobic and they're homophobes, too. He decries Western culture, decadence et cetera - they do too. Natural allies.

    There are certainly a couple paid online propagandists, but they're merely the seeds. Putin understood how to trigger certain demographics into supporting him and some true believers are indistinguishable from the paid seeds.

    You Americans know the 'talking point' culture well; the Putin regime uses the same approach.
    And to the American right wingers: The Putin true believers - they sound to us like Fox News true believers sound to liberals and foreigners. Think about that.

  16. #1456
    Council Member Fuchs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    By the way an IP address (...) they mean absolutely nothing to us as it is the hops you have taken and from where you started that is highly interesting--and by the way your IP address constantly changes each time you come onto the other commercial Western media boards which reflects definitely Tor usage.
    Dynamic IP addresses are standard in Germany and some other countries. Almost everyone here has a dynamic IP address unless one wants to run a private server.

    I am also allowed to use a proxy service of an institution nearby in order to access what they have a license to access - and that's no Tor at all.

    "definitely" was an exaggeration.

  17. #1457
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    Here is very intersting reading in Russian how Kremlin helped to organise referendum in Criema. Article is mostly based on (it seems to be) hacked mails by "Anonymous International" (who ever they are). Know how came directly from Russian presidential administration - internal affais deparment guys (who are responsible for elections and party terrain), PR firm " Secret advisor", public opinion research firm WCIOM etc. Full orchestra I dare to say.

    http://slon.ru/russia/kak_kovalas_po...-1095637.xhtml

    The Slavyansk FSB guy Strelkov/Girkin's mail seems to be hacked also.

    Suppousedly full list of Russian media experts, who got medals from Putin.

    Etc, etc.

    http://b0ltai.wordpress.com

    If you trust the source, then really good job done by hackers.
    Last edited by kaur; 05-14-2014 at 07:49 PM.

  18. #1458
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    Outlaw, thanks for kind words.

    Couple words about Russian civil society, their ideology, leaders and alliances. In the beginning of March this year, week before Crimea referendum, delegation from Crimea parliament headed by speaker Vladimir Konstantinov (previously head of Yanukovich "Party of regions" head in Crimea) visited Russian Duma. In front of the Duma, according to correspondent, they were greeted by Russian civil society groups. I did find by flags 2 organisations - "Oficery Rossi" (Russian officers) and Dugin's youth organisations. First organisation's leader is son of high ranking KGB officer and worked in FSB himself. Later was sent to lead national security departement in public service academy under presidential administration. Dugin's youth movement hosted "Donetsk Respublik" so called embassy in Moscow since 2012. I posted in this thread picture where Donetsk guys greeted Dugin. So, Russian officers organisation together with Eurasian fascists greeting Crimea leader in front of Russian duma

    Andreas Umland has collected works about Dugin's ideology here

    http://archive.today/c6bde

    Duma event http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZJaPEw0P9b4

    Eurasian Youth Union http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Youth_Union

    What makes things even more messy, is that during all this anti-western agenda is promoted and carried out by elite, whose kinds are studing and living in the west. In the picture on the right from Crimean guy is "United Russia" high ranking official Zheleznjak (waiving with hand), whose daughters are studing in Europe. What about Putin's daughters, Yakunin's family etc?

    http://www.online812.ru/2014/05/14/007/
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    Last edited by kaur; 05-15-2014 at 01:30 PM.

  19. #1459
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    Things will get even more silly from ideology side. Dugin, Ukrainian socialist, nationalist, all in Eurasian movement. This all is so wierdl

    One of the worrying results of the March 2006 elections to the Ukrainian parliament, Verkhovna Rada, was that the so-called “Popular Opposition” bloc led by the head of the Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine, Natal’ya Mikhailovna Vitrenko (b. 1951), managed to come close to passing the 3% barrier (with 2.93% of the official turnout) and thus almost entered the Rada. Vitrenko is the premier representative of radical anti-Westernism in Ukraine; she has also made herself known with her frequent invectives against Ukrainian politicians whom she does not hesitate to call “natsisty” (Nazis). Both of these circumstances are ironic in as far as Vitrenko has been for some time officially allied to a well-known Russian propagator of the West’s worst invention: fascism.

    Vitrenko, along with former UNA-UNSO and current “Bratstvo” leader Dmitro Korchinski, entered in 2004, and is now listed in the directory of members of, the Highest Council of the International Eurasian Movement (see here, 31st March 2006). There was also an announcement in 2005 that Vitrenko and Korchinski were going to enter the Highest Council of the Eurasian Youth Movement (here, 31st March 2006), the International Eurasian Movement’s youth section with branches in, among other countries, Ukraine. Both of these organizations, the International Eurasian Movement and Eurasian Youth Movement, have been created by, and are entirely devoted to the ideas of, a certain Aleksandr Gel'evich Dugin
    http://hnn.us/article/23821#sthash.F8p6pJi1.dpuf

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    Couple week sago Ukrainian SBU published intercepted phone call between Russian fascist Barkashov and "Donetsk Respublik" activist Dmitri Boitsov.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13xZ_TDEFSU

    Here is phone call interception between Dugin and "Donetsk Respublik" Pavel Gubarev's wife after Pavel's arrest by Ukrainian authorities.

    http://info-news.eu/russian-fascist-...ts-in-ukraine/

    Couple months ago was already discovered Gubarev participation in Barkashov's movement.

    Earlier this week pro-Russian protesters under the leadership of Pavel Gubarev, the self-proclamied governor seized several buildings in Donetsk Regional State Administration and raised the Russian flag. During one of the seizures Gubarev put forward a number of demands to the local authorities, including the holding of a referendum on the status of the region.
    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2014...ed-to-be-nazi/

    If you just think for a moment how FSB is controlling internal political environment (especially extremist organisations), then there should be no doubt that Russian officials must have some control over them. If you control them, then you can say "Do" or "Don't". At the moment they have green light in Ukraine.

    "Barkashov and Power Ministries"

    http://www2.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/assets...9-1_Dunlop.PDF

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