Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[mirhond]

2kaur

You could even enjoy satellite image of the base via googlemaps
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Ar...98e255ecbfeec2

[OUTLAW 09]

I'd rather use Occam's razor and give 90% probability that separatists got tanks from tank base in Artemovsk, which is situated right between Donetsk and Lugansk. Locals say this base is heavily guarded, but, you know, there is no problem which can't be solved by case full-o-cash in Ukraine.

so mirhond the willy peet rounds being fired as you claim in the Ukraine video played by virtually all of the Russian news media and defended by yourself is not the same video of the Israeli 155mm artillery firing the WP rounds in the Gaza---come on mirhond fakes are fakes.

[OUTLAW 09]

It's actually T-64 MBT, still on duty in Ukrainian army, I believe Ukrainian technical sergeants just sold this three ones to separatists

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=T-yHL3B16aU

Interview with Bezler and Ukrainian IF colonel held captive by separatists - government does not give a fu(k to POWs and won't going to exchange them, some privates just personally handed to their parents.

upd.

Another video for ever rejecting Outlaw - incendiary shells falling at Semenovka . I believe next time I could provide you with civilians burned alive with white phosphor, may be it'll satiate your lust for gore.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotat...&v=V4zX8AzidOE

Witness says it were illuminating rounds used as incendiary.

mirhond---did you by chance notice any Russian TV or Russian journalist and or actually yourself interview any Ukrainian citizens who claimed they were burnt with WP. Still waiting for those interviews

Did you also notice there is still no Ukrainian citizen who has come forward and claimed as well they were burnt.

come on man get real when a fake is a fake just admit it.

[OUTLAW 09]

I am only interested in democratic principle since that is tomtomed by western nations as their Holy Grail.

And because that is what has sustained my country.

In this world corruption, nepotism, crony capitalism and all the evils of society happens everywhere. Some places, less and some places, more. No country is free from it and to feel that is not true, would be another arrogance of false superiority.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, every Govt was corrupt and they all stashed away their fortunes. The last one was no better.

The Ukrainian top man fled. Now, why did he flee? Who flees when there is no danger to his person? If he had such fortunes as you claim, it would be no problems to manipulate a verdict. If he fled even then, when all was peace and quiet, then he must be daft.

Therefore, that line of argument does not gel.

I am not partisan and I don't care which side wins. Lest one feels that in India we are pro Russia, then that would be totally incorrect, given the new political and strategic equations.

I am more interested in geostrategy. Please note, that in the modern context, to organise a revolt (for the want of a better word), it requires organisation, money and weapons. There is hardly any chance of it coming to one through some mystic magic. It requires support.

For example, Solidarity persisted solely as an underground organization, supported by the Catholic Church and the US. That is documented.

Kosovo did not happen out of the blue, or for that matter, the Colour Revolutions.

It is geostrategy that pressured the rise of such events.

Likewise, for one to believe that Ukraine and Crimea are the 'will of the people' alone, it too hard to believe. Both required assistance and both got, even if by rival sides.

If indeed and if the elections have to be fair, it requires an international (and that does not mean western or Russian predominance or sponsored 'neutrals') monitoring.

Further, if all in Ukraine was with the present Govt, then how come the East Ukrainians are in revolt? I would not be surprised if Russians are encouraging them, but then there sure is a sizeable population that finds the current Ukrainian disposition not to their liking.

So let there be genuine Freedom and Democracy.

Let there be the ballot which talks and that too with monitors from non pro Western and non pro Russian countries.

I daresay, I am too far removed from history, though I concede that history is written by the victor (as is the case of WW I and WW !!) by the colonial powers (as in the case of colonies of imperial powers) and by the inclinations of the one who is writing and the Govt that gives credence to such history!

History of this conflict will surely be different from the perspective of Russian historians and that from the perspective of the Western historians.

The question will be - who is right!

Take the case of China. It was a horrid repressive regime and one to be hated.

But then it became placid and pleasant once the West was allowed a free run.

All, is but perceptions and national interests!

That is why I steer clear of all this moral claptrap and instead look at logical reasoning in the realm of a level playing field as far as it is humanly feasible.

Ray after reading this set of comments would you equate neo nationalism or better neo imperialism with your term geostrategy? Or better ethnic nationalism equates to geostrategy.

[kaur]

Ray, why you are mixing all those Africa, India, Asia, Afganistan, Ukraine etc things? Do you know what is EU Eastern patnership, AA/DCFTA and how it is working?

mirhond, if you are tring make jokes about NATO analysis with Google map images from x moment (i'm pretty convinced that this pic is at least 5 years old) lets play this game. Could you find what source was first that announced that ополчение got tanks. Then I'll say what I found.

[OUTLAW 09]

mirhond---and there are no Russian T64s and BM21s in the Ukraine---the Russian T64s are those from the 2000 that Russia was to have destroyed under OCSE agreements. Strange how they show up in the Ukraine is it not?

From the German newspaper FAz being released tomorrow:

Um deutlich zu machen, dass es sich um einen russischen Panzer handelt, hat die Nato ihrem Material Fotos des Panzertyps T-64 hinzugefgt, den sowohl die russische als auch die ukrainische Armee benutzen. Der russische Panzer hat erkennbar ein anderes Tarnmuster und eine andere Panzerung als die ukrainische Version. Danach wre der Panzer in Sneschnoje russischer Herkunft. Es handelt sich um ein Modell, das die russischen Streitkrfte selbst schon ausgemustert haben, von denen aber noch gut 2000 vorhanden sein sollen.

Ein Offizier des Bndnisses legte dieser Zeitung dar, dass die Bilder folgenden Ablauf nahelegten: Zunchst habe Russland wie angekndigt tatschlich seine Truppenprsenz an der Grenze zur Ukraine abgebaut, wie der Abzug der gepanzerten Fahrzeuge auf den ersten Bildern aus Rostow zeigt. Danach tauchten aber Panzer auf dem Militrgelnde auf, die zum Weitertransport verladen wurden. Einen Tag spter habe die ukrainische Regierung berichtet, dass drei russische Panzer und mehrere gepanzerte Fahrzeuge die Grenze am bergang Dovzhansky berquert htten, der unter Kontrolle der Aufstndischen der selbsternannten Volksrepublik Luhansk steht. Die Bilder aus Makijiwka und Sneschnoje seien als Beleg dafr zu werten, dass die Panzer tatschlich die Grenze berschritten htten und in der Sdostukraine im Einsatz seien.

Nach Ansicht der Allianz ist das ein Vorgehen, wie es die russische Fhrung schon auf der Krim praktiziert hat. Denn die Panzer tragen keine Hoheitszeichen, so wie das auch bei den grnen Mnnchen auf der Krim der Fall war, die sich im Nachhinein als russische Einsatzkrfte erwiesen. Sie waren die Vorhut, mit der Moskau die Annexion der Halbinsel vorbereitete.

Ob es womglich noch weitere russische Panzer auf ukrainischem Gebiet geben knnte, teilte die Nato nicht mit. Der russische Truppenabzug von der Grenze, der mehrfach vom Kreml angekndigt und immer wieder verschoben worden war, scheint allerdings nicht vollstndig erfolgt zu sein. Der Groteil der vormals bis zu 40.000 Soldaten sei aus dem Gebiet in der Nhe zur Grenze abgezogen worden, heit es aus der Nato. Eine Einheit unter 1000 Mann sei aber zurckgelassen worden. Es gebe keine Anzeichen dafr, dass auch sie verlegt werden soll.

Auch das amerikanische Auenministerium wies auf die Bilder der Panzer hin. Die Russen werden sagen, dass die Panzer aus den ukrainischen Streitkrften stammen, aber es operieren keine ukrainischen Panzereinheiten in diesem Gebiet. Wir sind berzeugt davon, dass es sich um russische Panzer handelt, sagte eine Sprecherin. Sie beschuldigte Russland auerdem, Raketenwerfer nach Luhansk geliefert zu haben, eine der Hochburgen der Aufstndischen.

[Ray]

Ray after reading this set of comments would you equate neo nationalism or better neo imperialism with your term geostrategy? Or better ethnic nationalism equates to geostrategy.

Well, semantics does have a magical spell that deceives.

There was a time, post the era of imperialism and colonialism, the assertion of the Power Block to influence and control the Third World got dubbed as 'neo imperialism'. Be that as it may or not, whatever it was, it was spurred possibly not so much as imperialism, but as pursuing national interests in the realm of world political matrix i.e. strategy in context of the world political and other dynamics. To those affected, it was still taken as 'neo imperialism'.

Likewise, we hear today, of words like 'eco imperialism' or 'eco terrorism' whenever a nation is disadvantaged in economic terms by another in an unfair way (as per the one affected), but then it does not seem fair a term to the one who affects.

One man's food is another man's poison, so to say.

These are terms which are used to define what one wants to convey in a partisan manner to an audience that has similar views.

Being far away from the conflict zone and being from a country where it does not materially impinge, I observe as if in a 'neutral zone'.

Yet, it is most enlightening to learn of the various views exchanged here.

[Ray]

Ray, why you are mixing all those Africa, India, Asia, Afganistan, Ukraine etc things? Do you know what is EU Eastern patnership, AA/DCFTA and how it is working?

I am not mixing anything.

Yes I am aware of the Eastern European Partnership that came into being in 2009, between the EU, EU countries and the eastern European.

The aim is to bring into the the EU these countries and increasing political, economic and cultural links to do so.

The fundamentals that underpins this alliance, if you will, as per the stated objective are - a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values - democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms - and to the market economy, sustainable development and good governance.

That is laudable if observed bareboned.

However, if such a high moral stand is taken by the EU to spread such high moral values and uplift the Eastern European nations from their economic and other miseries, one cannot help but wonder as to why Turkey, which is a member of the NATO, is not bestowed the same laudable considerations and instead is kept out of the EU?

I might remind that Turkey was one of the first countries to become a member of the Council of Europe in 1949. It was also a founding member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1961 and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1973.

It remains a matter of interest that Turkey, unlike Morocco (which has also applied), has 3% of its territory in Europe. And yet, on the other hand, Cyprus, which is geographically located in Asia, joined the European Union in 2004.

Of course, there are a variety of reasons that are given to 'justify' Turkey's exclusion or the imbroglio, but then one wonders how come the ex communist nations of Eastern Europe fits the bill so smoothly as ducks take to water.

The underlining principle is National Interest camouflaged in high principled appealing expressions.

[kaur]

Ray:

The aim is to bring into the the EU these countries and increasing political, economic and cultural links to do so.

The fundamentals that underpins this alliance, if you will, as per the stated objective are - a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values - democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms - and to the market economy, sustainable development and good governance.

After reading this article it seems that EU is dragging their feet annd Ukraine was very eager to join the organisation. EU is lazy in spreading their values But we can't agree with this vague accusation. We have to find who is quilty inside the organisation? Ray, what is your guess? Memberstates, Commission etc?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine...nion_relations

[Firn]

Ray:



After reading this article it seems that EU is dragging their feet annd Ukraine was very eager to join the organisation. EU is lazy in spreading their values But we can't agree with this vague accusation. We have to find who is quilty inside the organisation? Ray, what is your guess? Memberstates, Commission etc?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine...nion_relations

At the beginning of the crisis I worte that European Union had a big intrinsic pull factor by virtue of it's qualities. The countries who want to join are those who have to reach the EU targets and not the other way around.

Putins Russia is the flip-side of that coin. It is hardly attractive to neighbouring countries and needs to spend a lot of ressources in politicians, media, political capital and sometimes brute force to push them towards it's goals.

So it shouldn't be surprising that the EU and it's member states were so inactive and passive compared to Putin's active and aggressive meddling even before Maidan.

[Ray]

Ray:



After reading this article it seems that EU is dragging their feet annd Ukraine was very eager to join the organisation. EU is lazy in spreading their values But we can't agree with this vague accusation. We have to find who is quilty inside the organisation? Ray, what is your guess? Memberstates, Commission etc?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine...nion_relations

I would not be able to comment with any definite conclusions.

I presume it was felt to be a 'done thing' and so the EU was taking time to iron out the rough edges to its satisfaction.

However take hope from this and breathe easy:

Barroso reassures Moldova, Georgia ahead of EU pact signing
13/06/2014

European Commission President José Manuel Barroso urged Russia yesterday (12 June) not to stand in the way of Moldova and Georgia forging closer ties with Europe, despite the conflict caused by Ukraine's lurch towards the West.

http://www.euractiv.com/sections/eur...signing-302782

[kaur]

Firn, can't disagree with you

Ray, how can you presume this?

Staunton, June 15 – In Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is acting either as a failed state that cannot control the movement of heavy military equipment by independent groups across its borders or as a state sponsor of terrorism by such groups or an aggressor state that has invaded a neighboring sovereign state – or most likely as some combination of the three.

There are no other possibilities, however much the Putin regime seeks to confuse the situation and however much some Western governments want to accept Moscow’s obfuscation lest they be forced to make the hard choices required if they were to acknowledge this reality and the dangers it represents

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...of-putins.html

How Russian border guard (?) reacted to lone Ukrainian BMP border crossing. Take look at video ja gear. Polite green men?

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1683381.html

Moldova seems to be next.

Staunton, June 15 – At a secret meeting ten days ago, representatives of the Gagauz, Ukrainian and Bulgarian minorities of Moldova as well as leaders of opposition political parties signed an agreement to seek the federalization of Moldova now and the dismemberment of Moldova if Chisinau goes ahead with an EU accord.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...obilizing.html

[mirhond]

mirhond, if you are tring make jokes about NATO analysis with Google map images from x moment (i'm pretty convinced that this pic is at least 5 years old) lets play this game.
Could you find what source was first that announced that ополчение got tanks.
Then I'll say what I found.

1. Then ask Google how old are these images.
2. I'm not going to play games, I'am too old for that shиt ^_^
3. Youtube, as usual.
4. Well, if you want to punish me by withhelding some meaningful information - think about other users here, they are innocent and don't deserve punishment.

ps. You know, in the 90s it was possible to buy virtually anything from poorly guarded and falling apart military bases in Russia, the same situation still has place in Ukraine.

pps. Picture of Ukrainian punishers before they took their unlucky route to Donetsk, IL-76 behind is claimed to be that one which has been shot down three days ago.

[Ray]

Ray, how can you presume this?

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...of-putins.html

How Russian border guard (?) reacted to lone Ukrainian BMP border crossing. Take look at video ja gear. Polite green men?

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1683381.html

Moldova seems to be next.



http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.be/...obilizing.html

No movement of the intensity that has been seen on both sides can be sustained without external assistance in some form of the other.

However, all this eastern expansion does not appear all that altruistic as the Eastern European Partnership goals appear to indicate.

It is to close to appear as the translation of what is unofficially called 'Wolfowitch Doctrine' in which it is states

Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union. This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated control, be sufficient to generate global power.

Actually nothing wrong in that.

The US and the West, as every other country, has to further their own national and strategic interest.

However, such proactive actions to preserve and further strategic goals, requires to be couched in moral high standing so that all forms of apprehensions around the world are assuaged.

[Ray]

Ukrainian as a teaching language in school. Spreading across regions from 1991 to 2012.

That surely is the stepping stones to integration.

[OUTLAW 09]

I am not mixing anything.

Yes I am aware of the Eastern European Partnership that came into being in 2009, between the EU, EU countries and the eastern European.

The aim is to bring into the the EU these countries and increasing political, economic and cultural links to do so.

The fundamentals that underpins this alliance, if you will, as per the stated objective are - a shared commitment to international law and fundamental values - democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms - and to the market economy, sustainable development and good governance.

That is laudable if observed bareboned.

However, if such a high moral stand is taken by the EU to spread such high moral values and uplift the Eastern European nations from their economic and other miseries, one cannot help but wonder as to why Turkey, which is a member of the NATO, is not bestowed the same laudable considerations and instead is kept out of the EU?

I might remind that Turkey was one of the first countries to become a member of the Council of Europe in 1949. It was also a founding member of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 1961 and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in 1973.

It remains a matter of interest that Turkey, unlike Morocco (which has also applied), has 3% of its territory in Europe. And yet, on the other hand, Cyprus, which is geographically located in Asia, joined the European Union in 2004.

Of course, there are a variety of reasons that are given to 'justify' Turkey's exclusion or the imbroglio, but then one wonders how come the ex communist nations of Eastern Europe fits the bill so smoothly as ducks take to water.

The underlining principle is National Interest camouflaged in high principled appealing expressions.

Ray---Turkey was making good strides in matching the EU requirements that were being required---then Turkey stopped about the time the demonstrations started and the accusation of massive corruption against their current PM came up and for many young Turks viewing the EU as "modern" The MB effect has started--meaning a slow and steady "Islamization" of the country which is in the Turkish Constitution forbidden since Ataturk days.

This PM though wants to change the Constitution to favor Islam but cannot due to the EU demands thus he has been looking for ways to slow down Turkey joining the EU---not vice versa.

Living in a city in Germany that has the highest number of Turks outside Istanbul tends to give one a real sense of what is actually going on inside Turkey and that is not being revealed either by Turkish government leaning media or western press.

[OUTLAW 09]

These convoys movement towards Rostov are of interest since Russia has not announced any large scale maneuvers that involve the use of that major highway link between Moscow and Rostov.

But Moscow has announced wanting to send "humanitarian" aid just like the tanks. So maybe this is the "aid" hidden as a military convoy.

http://inforesist.org/en/video-a-hug...wards-ukraine/

[kaur]

mirhond, you like critical analysis of sources. You couldn't sacrifice 15 min to google the backround of your tank story. Look what I found. First sources started to talk about 3 tanks about week ago. They started to cite source peacekeeper.ru. Like this one.

http://www.yaplakal.com/forum1/topic831226.html

If you go to peacekeeper cite, there is not much info about owners. Wierd? Goole found that peacekeeper site is project of http://info21.ru.

If you go to the info21 site, then you find that head of this organisation is Alexander Starunski. Google finds out that some good years ago colonel Starunski worked in Northern Caucasus as head of information operations.

Заместитель командующего Объединенной группой войск на Северном Кавказе по информационной политике подполковник Александр Старунский сообщил, что в Аргуне в ночь на 5 февраля при проведении специальной операции уничтожен организатор террористического акта Мовсара Бараева на Дубровке Иса Джантаев.

http://www.specnaz.ru/antiterror/151/

So, I dare to say that this tank story from peacekeeper is nice example about Russian maskirovka and disinformation.

Ray, did Obama took Wolfowitz doctrine file with him? I doubt I do encourage you to study deeper that Eastern Partnership topic. This is quite complicated topic and a lot of contradictions.

[kaur]

Novaya Gazeta has again good story about Russians, who got decorated due to their merits concerning Crimea. Google translate is even worse than my English, but you'll get the point.

Heroes classified as "Confidential"

At the disposal of "Novaya Gazeta" was awarded for a list of Crimean campaign
16.06.2014

http://translate.google.be/translate...00%26bih%3D799

[Ray]

Ray---Turkey was making good strides in matching the EU requirements that were being required---then Turkey stopped about the time the demonstrations started and the accusation of massive corruption against their current PM came up and for many young Turks viewing the EU as "modern" The MB effect has started--meaning a slow and steady "Islamization" of the country which is in the Turkish Constitution forbidden since Ataturk days.

This PM though wants to change the Constitution to favor Islam but cannot due to the EU demands thus he has been looking for ways to slow down Turkey joining the EU---not vice versa.

Living in a city in Germany that has the highest number of Turks outside Istanbul tends to give one a real sense of what is actually going on inside Turkey and that is not being revealed either by Turkish government leaning media or western press.

Turkey 'will probably never be EU member'
Turkey will probably never become a member of the European Union because of stiff opposition and "prejudiced" attitudes from current members, a senior Turkish minister has admitted.

Turkey's accession talks have essentially frozen for three years. France has always been a strong opponent while Germany objected strongly to the degree of force used by the Turkish security forces to break up anti-government demonstrations in Istanbul in June.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...EU-member.html

This from a British newspaper.

On Islam and EU

Angela Merkel promised the Pope that she would use her influence during Germany's presidency to try to include a reference to Christianity and God in the treaty. This has provoked opposition, not least in the German press
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5337166.stm

Kosovo, Albanian predominant, has not been taken in the EU but has the EU footprint all over.



Note the white spaces in Europe.

I believe Norway has voted ‘no’ twice in referendums.

The arguments for saying ‘no’ were that membership was a threat to the sovereignty of Norway, the fishing industries and agriculture would suffer, that membership would result in increased centralisation, and there would be less favourable conditions for equality and the welfare state. Fishing is extremely important to the Norwegian economy, especially for coastal areas. It is the second largest industry in Norway, after oil.