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Thread: Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

  1. #1661
    Council Member davidbfpo's Avatar
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    Default Deserted @ Slavyansk?

    Fighters loyal to the Donetsk People’s Republic, the separatist movement seeking unification with Russia, have held the town since April, defying repeated Ukrainian attempts to retake it.

    In a disarmingly frank interview with Russian media on Friday, a visibly shaken Mr Girkin described the situation as desperate, and all but accused Russia of abandoning the rebels.



    “My soldiers are dying everyday...[The fighters] are people who consciously took up arms to defend their language and their culture, to defend Russia..[But] Russia does not want to help them unify with their people. It is very difficult to accept that in nearly three months in Slavyansk practically no real help has reached us....we really need.
    Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...Slavyansk.html
    davidbfpo

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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Legalistic Fallacy. Устав войска Донского is the worhless piece of paper without any legal stature. So, if cossacks take hostages on their own behalf on the territory of ahother state they are subjects to this respectful state laws.
    mirhond---you have got to get rid of your hang up on using the word fallacy---actually you have a major fallacy and it is in your thinking itself.

    Let's see---oh yes the OCSE observers were in fact requested by Putin to get active in the eastern Ukraine in order to support your fallacy that it is the Ukrainians who are killing civilians not Cossacks killing eastern Ukrainians--but hey that is your fallacy.

    But then who has been "capturing the OCSE teams"---lets see was it the Ukrainian Army?, was it Martians?, was it those bad Ukrainian "fascists" you are always talking about?---Actually none of the above---it was those friendly proRussian freedom fighters who somehow accidently crossed that Russian "enhanced" border---but then Putin must be lying as the border was suppose to be secure so mirhond just how did they get across?

    Your second fallacy is actually believing Putin really wanted the OCSE there at all--- because as they have done in their review of violations being committed in the east---- stated it is the Russian irregulars who are killing civilians not the Ukrainian Army---but hey that is your fallacy.

    Another fallacy of yours is the belief you have that all those Russia T64s tanks that you "claimed" came your the Ukrainians were seen and videoed --coming from where?---again across that "enhanced and secured Russian border" so again Putin must have been lying that the border of the "motherland" is secure right?

    With that secure of a border no wonder Russia has a jihadi problem--they seem to just walk across.

    so mirhond when you use the word fallacy you yourself are open to the same argument---that you misuse the term all day long but then again that is what you get paid for is it not?
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-05-2014 at 05:01 PM.

  3. #1663
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    mirhond---your "proRussian non fascist "freedom fighters" are going the wrong direction--back to Russia---is that not strange since April they have terrorizing Ukrainian citizens and robbing/plundering them as well and now when the fighting gets hard all those Cossacks are running where.

    Were not all those Chechen and Cossack fighters battle hardened and military professionals?

    I thought they were fighting to defend the Russian language from being destroyed by that Kiev Nazi junta and create the "New Russia"---was that not the term Putin used?---so why are they running for the Russian border?

    Does that make sense in your fallacy world?

  4. #1664
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    So almost all sources agree that Slovyansk and Kramatorsk have been liberated while I found no informations on further advances. First of all this good news for the citiziens who for the time being are able to live without getting shot by both sides and insurgents roaming houses and terrorizing parts of the population.

    There is no doubt that over the last months the Ukrainian armed forces have been increasingly mobilized and prepared to fight but they also payed a considerable price in blood and material in their efforts. The opponents have been boosted by further Russian 'volunteers' and heavy weapons from Russia proper but have made little progress, if not regress at securing the support of most locals.

    The big population centers, especially the Donetsk area are still de facto controlled by the insurgents and invaders so it is only a small step forward in military terms for Ukraine.
    Last edited by Firn; 07-05-2014 at 08:19 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Default Pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine reportedly prepare last stand in Donetsk

    This was the news on the WSJ this morning.

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukrai...ast-1404644564

    Pro-Russia Rebels Prepare Last Stand in East Ukraine
    Ukraine neared a final showdown with pro-Russia rebels, after Kiev forced insurgents to retreat to the last major cities they control and Moscow showed no signs of intervening to help them.

    On Sunday, Ukraine said it plans to lay siege to Donetsk, a regional capital of one million residents that is the political and economic center of eastern Ukraine, and pursue rebels who fled there from Slovyansk, which had been the base of rebel military resistance in the region until government forces recaptured it over the weekend.
    With that, one has to ask, was this largely right?

    http://www.vox.com/2014/5/16/5717674...elf-is-working

    Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working
    ...
    Most of this is economic. Russia's self-imposed economic problems started pretty quickly after its annexation of Crimea in March and have kept up. Whether or not American or European governments sanction Russia's broader economy, the global investment community has a mind of its own, and they seem to have decided that Russia's behavior has made it a risky place to put money. So risky that they're pulling more money out.

    A lot of that may have come from the targeted sanctions that Obama pushed for against individual Russian leaders and oligarchs. Those targeted sanctions did not themselves do much damage to the Russian economy. But, along with Russia's erratic behavior in Ukraine and the lack of clarity as to whether Europe and the US could impose broader sanctions, it appears to have been enough to scare off global investors — the big, faceless, placeless mass of people and banks who have done tremendous damage to Putin's Russia, nudged along by the US and by Putin himself.
    ...
    Last edited by BrentWilliams; 07-07-2014 at 04:15 PM.

  6. #1666
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    Photos about pro-Russian Donetsk Republic meeting. In Donetsk there should live 1 million habitants.

    http://vg-saveliev.livejournal.com/800023.html

    Here are some ATGM and MANPAD missiles photos from pro-Russian former FSB guy Strelkov's base. In another post one anonymous separatist claimed that those ATGM missiles were not in working condition and were left there because of that.

    http://gurkhan.blogspot.be/2014/07/blog-post_6.html
    Last edited by kaur; 07-07-2014 at 04:29 PM.

  7. #1667
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Sunday I spent a little time to look grosso modo at the military geography of the conflict. The situation has changed quickly in the central Donetzk Oblast and the maps are seemingly the work of amateurs and there is the ever present fog of war so those should only be taken as a rough guide. The conflict seems to be also heavily focused around cities and roads so the countryside is mostly left alone.




    This maps shows the various regional entities of the two contested Oblasts and was thus useful to estimated very roughly the number of people living in ares not under direct Ukrainian control.



    This shows broadly the recent advances on a topograhic map. In the North the frontline runs roughly along the Siversky Donets. It marks for a considerable distance the state border.

    I have looked at some others and there are sometimes considerable differences. However they are rather useful to get those rough numbers.

    Perhaps the biggest take-away is that the Ukrainian state is currently not controlling areas in which live between 5-5.5 million citiziens. A bit less then half of that is living in occupied Crimea with its less then 2.4 million people. The other area covers parts of the Donetzk and Luhansk Oblasts with a population of somewhere between 2.6 and 3 million. Depending on the number of refugees those numbers could be lower by some margin.

    Overall the speratists are 'controlling' the cities of an area holding around 1/15 of the pre-war Ukrainian population. Puts a good deal of the media reporting into perspective.


    @kaur: Indeed, as usually small crowds and perhaps to a good degree paid, something regularly done under the fugitive ex-president. So far all points to rather weak popular support for the seperatists cause which of course doesn't mean that the others love the current Ukrainian government.
    Last edited by Firn; 07-07-2014 at 06:27 PM.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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  9. #1669
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    The short BBC article Ukraine crisis: Bridges destroyed outside Donetsk contains sadly only one location. In that case it is about on-third from Donetzk to Kostiantynivka, which was recently taken by the Ukrainian forces. Horlivka looks like an important short-term objective, as well as the Lysychansk area another center of speratists activity which might feel increasingly isolated.

    Perhaps the most important result of the recent offensive is that hundred thousends of Ukrainians can live and sleep in a more peaceful environment.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

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    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrentWilliams View Post
    obamas-plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working
    Poor Putin, have mercy on him! ^_^
    He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  11. #1671
    Council Member Firn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.

    Well stated. Putin has indeed quite successful at putting his personal short term goals above the long term interests of Russia and it's population. Kudos to him.
    ... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

    General Ludwig Beck (1880-1944);
    Speech at the Kriegsakademie, 1935

  12. #1672
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    What a nice show! Russian high flying theatre director Kurginjan is visiting Donetsk and his only plan seems to be undremining Strelkovs authority. For backround, Kurginjan was one of the antiorange pro-Putin movement high ranking activists when Putin was reelected 2012.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16885446
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1q-h1O_mgI

    Today he had hot discussion with DNR activist Gubarev (that Barkashov and Dugin follower) and DNR head of military staff. Kurginjan told about arms from Russia. He said sorry, that arms were old, but promised newer ATGM-s and MANPADS. DNR guys first denied Russian arms shipments, but later said that Slovyansk defenders got only 3 tanks and 3 BMP-s. Head of staff complained that ATGM missiles were old (should be disposed already 2001) and only 1 rocket from 4 worked. Gubarev added that some units are armed to the teeth with Russian arms, but they refuse to fight (???).

    Russian arms part starts at 16:30 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNKV-zzcW9w

    What is going on?!

  13. #1673
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    Poor Putin, have mercy on him! ^_^
    He'll actually get out of this mess with some political advantages like wide popular support for Crimean Anschluss, several thousands fighters ready for a new campaign and the most important - all the brotherly Soviet-stile sentimental feelings about Ukraine are gone for good.
    mirhond--cannot believe you are still writing as I had heard Dugin has been replaced by Putin as a close advisor and the FSB has been told to stop their inforwar---noticed there has been no longer any terms such as Nazi and junta coming out of Moscow---wonder why?

    mirhond---not so sure Putin has "won" anything as it appears that there is no money in the current Russian budget for the Crimea---wonder why?

    http://inforesist.org/en/russia-chan...imea-no-money/

    mirhond---also noticed that Russian employers are "asking" their employees to "donate" a days worth of earnings to support the Crimea----what happened no money in the Russian budget? Many so called Russian employees are complaining their wages are going down and are refusing to "donate"---not a good indicator of support for Putin and the Crimea if you ask me mirhond.

    mirhond--the first Russian vacationers are back from their "subsidized" vacations in the Crimea and they "complained" about the poor service, bad hotels and poor food---what happened there mirhond?

    mirhond---in the New York times from today there was a long article from Crimea farmers complaining the are getting little to no support from Russian which was "promised by Putin"---what happened there mirhond---again no money?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/wo...-hurdles.html?

    so mirhond where is the "win"?

    http://inforesist.org/sily-ato-obnar...d-slavyanskom/
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-08-2014 at 07:56 PM.

  14. #1674
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    mirhond-----is this the Russian citizen who the Russian Foreign Ministry has bitterly complained about that was arrested by Americans while he was on vacation---is not his mother in the Duma?

    mirhond---noticed the Russian FM did not mention the Russian citizen arrested was a well known Russian hacker.

    MOSCOW. July 8 (Interfax) - Moscow has called an unfriendly step the detention in the Maldives of Russian citizen Roman Seleznyov whom the United States wants to prosecute.

    "We view this incident as another unfriendly step of Washington. This is not the first time that the U.S. side has ignored the 1999bilateral treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal cases and actually abducted a Russian citizen. For instance, this has happened to Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko who were taken to the United States by force from third countries and convicted on doubtful counts," says a commentary posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

    "The Russian diplomats are taking the utmost efforts to find out details of the detention of R. Seleznyov and his soonest return to the home country. We are insisting that the U.S. give coherent explanations about the incident, strictly observe the rights of the Russian citizen and give a consular access to him," the ministry said.



    Jul 14
    Feds Charge Carding Kingpin in Retail Hacks

    The U.S. Justice Department on Monday announced the arrest of a Russian hacker accused of running a network of online crime shops that sold credit and debit card data stolen in breaches at restaurants and retailers throughout the United States.

    The government alleges that the hacker known in the underground as “nCux” and “Bulba” was Roman Seleznev, a 30-year-old Russian citizen who was recently arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

    Selzenev was initially identified by the government in 2012, when it named him as part of a conspiracy involving more than three dozen popular merchants on carder[dot]su, a bustling fraud forum where Bulba and other members openly marketed various cybercrime-oriented services.

    According to Seleznev’s own indictment, which was filed in 2011 but made public this week, he was allegedly part of a group that hacked into restaurants between 2009 and 2011 and planted malicious software to steal card data from store point-of-sale devices.

    The indictment further alleges that Seleznev and unnamed accomplices used his online monikers to sell stolen credit and debit cards at bulba[dot]cc and track2[dot]name. Customers of these services paid for their cards with virtual currencies, including WebMoney and Bitcoin. As explained in the screen shot below, the track2[dot]name site stopped accepting new members in 2011, and new applicants were directed to bulba[dot]cc, which claimed to be an authorized reseller.
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-08-2014 at 08:48 PM.

  15. #1675
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    mirhond---can you explain why all of those new Russian passports for the Crimea that were issued with great fanfare are actually invalid?

    http://inforesist.org/en/crimean-rus...to-be-invalid/

  16. #1676
    Council Member mirhond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Firn View Post
    Well stated. Putin has indeed quite successful at putting his personal short term goals above the long term interests of Russia and it's population.Kudos to him.
    This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
    plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working
    if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

    Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.
    Last edited by mirhond; 07-09-2014 at 10:48 AM.
    Haeresis est maxima opera maleficarum non credere.

  17. #1677
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    Quote Originally Posted by mirhond View Post
    This statement doesn't belong to this thread, because it's not an agrument for
    if you have your own vision of the long term interests of Russia and it's population you are wellcome to the neighbouring thread, I'd like to read a comprehensive post from you.

    Outlaw, what part of the phrase "I don't read your posts" you don't understand? If your posts contain something useful to other readers, appeal to the public and stop using my codename. I won't answer to you, because a really don't read your posts.
    my ----mirhond a little sensitive are we?

    ProRussians losing in the Ukraine, Crimean farmers not getting the promised support from Putin, Russian Passports issued in the Crimea not being valid because someone forgot to stamp and sign them, the Russian economy in a tailspin, Russian citizen arrested for being a wanted criminal hacker whose mother is a big Duma person?

    AND---no budget for the Crimea-and food price increases of over 80%-wow what a victory for the proRussians in the Crimea-so it looks like Russia is broke correct mirhond?

    And moreover mirhond--neither you nor the Russian media are no longer using the terms fascists, Nazi's or junta when talking about the Ukraine---what happen there my friend?

    So since when are you the blog specialist as to what should and or should not be written here in response to your somewhat misleading comments and or the lack of comments.

    You still never did answer the question ---you claimed the T64s were Ukrainian but now proven to be Russian and yet you do not admit you were wrong.

    All you do is throw the word fallacy around in some sentences in order to appear academic like which you are not---correct mirhond?

    Just another paid blogger by the FSB trying to make a name for himself after Russia "loses" New Russia".
    Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-09-2014 at 12:22 PM.

  18. #1678
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    mirhond---can you explain why all of those new Russian passports for the Crimea that were issued with great fanfare are actually invalid?

    http://inforesist.org/en/crimean-rus...to-be-invalid/

    mirhond---the question was unanswered so therefore the passports must be invalid since you are the Russian expert.

    Would have thought your FSB employers would have at least allowed you to deny the article---strange is it not mirhond---you often have comments but then fail to answer a simple straight forward question.

  19. #1679
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    mirhond-----is this the Russian citizen who the Russian Foreign Ministry has bitterly complained about that was arrested by Americans while he was on vacation---is not his mother in the Duma?

    mirhond---noticed the Russian FM did not mention the Russian citizen arrested was a well known Russian hacker.

    MOSCOW. July 8 (Interfax) - Moscow has called an unfriendly step the detention in the Maldives of Russian citizen Roman Seleznyov whom the United States wants to prosecute.

    "We view this incident as another unfriendly step of Washington. This is not the first time that the U.S. side has ignored the 1999bilateral treaty on mutual legal assistance in criminal cases and actually abducted a Russian citizen. For instance, this has happened to Viktor Bout and Konstantin Yaroshenko who were taken to the United States by force from third countries and convicted on doubtful counts," says a commentary posted on the Russian Foreign Ministry website.

    "The Russian diplomats are taking the utmost efforts to find out details of the detention of R. Seleznyov and his soonest return to the home country. We are insisting that the U.S. give coherent explanations about the incident, strictly observe the rights of the Russian citizen and give a consular access to him," the ministry said.



    Jul 14
    Feds Charge Carding Kingpin in Retail Hacks

    The U.S. Justice Department on Monday announced the arrest of a Russian hacker accused of running a network of online crime shops that sold credit and debit card data stolen in breaches at restaurants and retailers throughout the United States.

    The government alleges that the hacker known in the underground as “nCux” and “Bulba” was Roman Seleznev, a 30-year-old Russian citizen who was recently arrested by the U.S. Secret Service.

    Selzenev was initially identified by the government in 2012, when it named him as part of a conspiracy involving more than three dozen popular merchants on carder[dot]su, a bustling fraud forum where Bulba and other members openly marketed various cybercrime-oriented services.

    According to Seleznev’s own indictment, which was filed in 2011 but made public this week, he was allegedly part of a group that hacked into restaurants between 2009 and 2011 and planted malicious software to steal card data from store point-of-sale devices.

    The indictment further alleges that Seleznev and unnamed accomplices used his online monikers to sell stolen credit and debit cards at bulba[dot]cc and track2[dot]name. Customers of these services paid for their cards with virtual currencies, including WebMoney and Bitcoin. As explained in the screen shot below, the track2[dot]name site stopped accepting new members in 2011, and new applicants were directed to bulba[dot]cc, which claimed to be an authorized reseller.
    mirhond---you failed to answer this so I am assuming it to be correct that the Russian citizen was in fact an internationally known and wanted hacker who thought he could take a vacation unnoticed from the US Marshalls.

  20. #1680
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    Quote Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
    mirhond--cannot believe you are still writing as I had heard Dugin has been replaced by Putin as a close advisor and the FSB has been told to stop their inforwar---noticed there has been no longer any terms such as Nazi and junta coming out of Moscow---wonder why?

    mirhond---not so sure Putin has "won" anything as it appears that there is no money in the current Russian budget for the Crimea---wonder why?

    http://inforesist.org/en/russia-chan...imea-no-money/

    mirhond---also noticed that Russian employers are "asking" their employees to "donate" a days worth of earnings to support the Crimea----what happened no money in the Russian budget? Many so called Russian employees are complaining their wages are going down and are refusing to "donate"---not a good indicator of support for Putin and the Crimea if you ask me mirhond.

    mirhond--the first Russian vacationers are back from their "subsidized" vacations in the Crimea and they "complained" about the poor service, bad hotels and poor food---what happened there mirhond?

    mirhond---in the New York times from today there was a long article from Crimea farmers complaining the are getting little to no support from Russian which was "promised by Putin"---what happened there mirhond---again no money?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/08/wo...-hurdles.html?

    so mirhond where is the "win"?

    http://inforesist.org/sily-ato-obnar...d-slavyanskom/
    mirhond ---Again no responses from you so mirhond I am assuming the comments to be correct since you are the Russian expert here.

    So again mirhond---a great Putin "win" is it?

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