Ukraine (closed; covers till August 2014)

[OUTLAW 09]

It appears the last round of the US sanctions is hitting hard.

Interfax from today:

07/21 21:38 RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK MAY SELL FOREX TO SANCTIONS-HIT BANKS VIA MARKET - BELOUSOV

07/21 21:37 GOVERNMENT CONSIDERING MEASURES TO SUPPORT VEB TARGETED BY SANCTIONS; ADDITIONAL CAPITALIZATION POSSIBLE - BELOUSOV

[Firn]

A snapshot of the current situation through the usual fog of war. It is a pretty rough guide, but the Ukrainian forces have certainly made progress in the last weeks and days. At least an area with a pre-war population of over 100.000 has been liberated.



As I have written before the have been caught completely unaware by the Russian 'stab into the back' but a country of 40 million under the government's control is increasingly mobilizing and fighting back. It is difficult to see how the (pro)Russians will be able to hold out for a long period if Russia doesn't heavily reinforce it's shadowy forces composed by all sorts of individuals, even locals. Still in this conflict the Kremlin has de facto so far only escalated so one can hardly rule that out.

[Firn]

Just a couple of words about the diplomatic moves in this conflict, especially the EU countries.

Italy's government has certainly been the most openly 'filorusso' of the big countries, while France is more circumspect, perhaps due that Mistral business. It is currently heads the EU, but the visit by Mogherini has obviously caused bad blood. The killing of almost 300 civilians, mostly Europeans with Russia's help has clearly greatly reduced her chance to get Ashtons job, but who knows what will happen.

Overall Renzi has been pretty naive so far in European politics and was keen to avoid the nomination of the guy he stabbed into the back, Letta.

[kaur]

Russia’s top 80 lies about Ukraine

http://www.examiner.com/list/russia-...-about-ukraine

[OUTLAW 09]

comrade mirhond---care to comment on the story below that a "great Russian irregular leader" "just happened" to be in the Ukraine and a passer by "just happen to place a AK in his hands---really comrade mirhond can you help them at least get their stories correct or at least "sound" normal.

The Russia bear caught with is hands in the honey pot--old Russian mercenary saying.

comrade mirhond--an provide the link if you can read but it was in Ukrainian.

3. In Donbas, soldiers from the Aidar Battalion caught Tamerlan Enaldiev, one of the Deputy Defense Ministers of South Ossetia, chopped off earlier from Georgia.

It’s pretty obvious that Enaldiev began to state that he had ended up in Ukraine by chance, that he had not participated in any hostilities, nor had he commanded the mercenaries, and that an automatic machine gun ended up in his hands by error (an unknown passer-by shoved it there), I swear on my mother.

These captured personnel are clear evidence that Putin gathers mercenaries from all corners of his rotten unfinished empire. A mercenary from the Caucasus that keeps drowning Ukraine in blood–here is the image of the Russian world, cherished by Moscow. Every reasonable person must see and understand this image [for what it truly is].

[JMA]

When the term Russian mercenaries what exactly is meant?

Are we talking about ethnic Russians, either residents of Ukraine, Russia or elsewhere, civilians, ex-servicemen including some currently serving in the Russian military?

As such would these people be covered under the Geneva Convention? And what about elements of the civilian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine who collaborate with these people, are they guilty of any crime under Ukrainian or international law?

comrade mirhond---care to comment on the story below that a "great Russian irregular leader" "just happened" to be in the Ukraine and a passer by "just happen to place a AK in his hands---really comrade mirhond can you help them at least get their stories correct or at least "sound" normal.

The Russia bear caught with is hands in the honey pot--old Russian mercenary saying.

comrade mirhond--an provide the link if you can read but it was in Ukrainian.

3. In Donbas, soldiers from the Aidar Battalion caught Tamerlan Enaldiev, one of the Deputy Defense Ministers of South Ossetia, chopped off earlier from Georgia.

It’s pretty obvious that Enaldiev began to state that he had ended up in Ukraine by chance, that he had not participated in any hostilities, nor had he commanded the mercenaries, and that an automatic machine gun ended up in his hands by error (an unknown passer-by shoved it there), I swear on my mother.

These captured personnel are clear evidence that Putin gathers mercenaries from all corners of his rotten unfinished empire. A mercenary from the Caucasus that keeps drowning Ukraine in blood–here is the image of the Russian world, cherished by Moscow. Every reasonable person must see and understand this image [for what it truly is].

[OUTLAW 09]

When the term Russian mercenaries what exactly is meant?

Are we talking about ethnic Russians, either residents of Ukraine, Russia or elsewhere, civilians, ex-servicemen including some currently serving in the Russian military?

As such would these people be covered under the Geneva Convention? And what about elements of the civilian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine who collaborate with these people, are they guilty of any crime under Ukrainian or international law?

JMA---ethnic Russian citizens carrying Russian passports and crossing into the Ukraine from the Russian Federation.

Under the GC---if you are carrying a visible weapon, wearing a visible uniform and carrying and ID even as a mercenary you are granted GC rights and protection---the Ukrainian law being used is in fact overriding the GC as they state it is internal Ukrainian police laws that are being broken thus they are investigated under those AT laws and then charged under them.

Eastern Ukrainians who have been assisting and have as the Kiev government states "no blood on their hands" are to be let go after an investigation process.

On the other hand the mercenaries especially the Cossacks have currently an estimated 400 civilian prisoners, have left behind one large mass grave, torture and kill anyone who is not pro Russian.

[mirhond]

And what about elements of the civilian population in Crimea and eastern Ukraine who collaborate with these people, are they guilty of any crime under Ukrainian or international law?

1. Why do you bother? You already gave an answer - ethnical cleansing, so relax and wait, Ukrainians will do it in due time.
2. You really believe Ukraine will get Crimea back?

[JMA]

1. Why do you bother? You already gave an answer - ethnical cleansing, so relax and wait, Ukrainians will do it in due time.

The Russians and the Germans exposed and thereby thought the Ukrainians well about genocide, ethnic cleansing and mass murder 70 odd years ago. With what has and continues to happen on the ground in Eastern Ukraine through the actions of Russian proxies the chances are good that the Ukrainians will look to revenge once they regain control of the area. This needs to be anticipated and countered through positive action on behalf of the US and the EU. These people - as stupid and gullible as they are - should not have to pay the price for Putin's megalomania.

2. You really believe Ukraine will get Crimea back?

Who believed that Kuwait would ever be freed from Saddam's grasp?

Of course it should... but the US is a spent force and Putin has Germany in his pocket so who knows.

[OUTLAW 09]

comrade mirhond will like this---the US released the missile trajectory and it did not come from a Ukrainian Buk--- came head on and it came from a Cossack mercenary held town and is where the white tractor trailer hauling the Buk with a missing missile was seen.

Half way down the article link is the CNN twitter showing the missile path.

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/...d_4008709.html

If the US has the missile path then they have the launch geo location---wonder what the Russian AF General who claimed it was the Ukrainians yesterday will say tomorrow?

Also in the article is the announcement that the Ukrainian SSU has a voice intercept of a Russian officer calling his Moscow office shortly before the downing stating that they had acquired a target---now that one will be more than interesting to see how the Russians spin this. That must be why they have been so adamant that it was the Russians indicating they had solid proof.

[Firn]

It seems that all the large population centers of the Lysychansk hub, along the Seversky Donets have been liberated. Over 240.000 lived pre-war in the two cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk alone. The whole area was, as stated before, threatened to be cut off from (Pro)-Russian-held areas so this might have to do with the seemingly quick success. It is of course impossible to say how many of the defenders got away. Still the fall of the third largest urban hub formerly under (Pro)-Russian control seems to be back under the control of the national government.

On the other hand the (Pro)-Russians seem to have taken Chervona Zorya, the border area which is marked by many clashes on the following map. This would isolated the Ukrainian forces in the very east. With both heavy casualities from artillery strikes happening quite close to the Russian border this seems to be an especially dangerous place. Maybe just a case, probably not.



This map is not quite up-to-date but it also shows that Luhansk is threatened with encirclement and that Horlivka seems to be a priority objective. The latter is the third largest city still patrolled by (Pro)-Russians. Of course the military liberation is just one step, if a necessary and most important one, in a long process.

[Dayuhan]

Who believed that Kuwait would ever be freed from Saddam's grasp?

Did any thinking person ever doubt that Kuwait would be liberated?

Saddam didn't have nukes; Putin does. Crimea doesn't have oil, Kuwait does. Those factors may have some slight impact on the relative risk/reward calculations.

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---one has to hand it to the Ukrainian military and it must be a surprise to Putin and the mercenaries---they can fight--it took awhile to get untracked, call up and train the NG and mate them with the Airborne/armored units and get into the swing of CC (planning and ordering troop movements) ie all those things a military must do when at war which they were not prepared for. And it took time to get their armor up and even running---and at first with literally with no body armor or food for their troops.

A steady town for town city for city campaign---and I think the mercenaries are also startled at the willingness of the UA to use heavy weapons even in ton and cities to break their will.

Then they roll into the captured towns with relief supplies, food and water and treat the locals as if they are still part and parcel Ukrainians---hey they learned COIN while in Iraq.

http://en.inforesist.org/the-ato-for...rorists-video/

One can see the surprise by both the Russians and the mercenaries about the fighting abilities of the UA in comments recently in Interfax blaming Swedish, Finnish, Polish and Czech mercenaries fighting with the US---at first they were claiming Grey Stone and Black Water and company.

Then this in the last few days out of Donetsk---it appears as if they think now they are fighting NATO--maybe that was the reason yesterday Putin claimed they must increase their defense sending to now counter NATO on their borders:

4. Trying to justify their deliberate defeat, the little Russian fighters are employing every means possible [to explain themselves].

The so-called “prime minister” of the terrorist organization DNR, [Alexander] Borodai, claimed that in fact they are waging war not only with Ukraine, but also…with NATO. As in, the terrorists are forced to fight “against an army, for whom a huge mass of mercenaries are fighting from different countries, from Poland, from all over Europe.”

Presumably, when the next reinforcement of mercenaries from Caucasia brings a new batch of drugs, Borodai will suddenly realize that not only Europe and NATO are fighting for Ukrainians, but also the Intergalactic Fleet of Martians. We are looking forward to a protest note from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the Government of Mars.

[OUTLAW 09]

One is seeing a lot of Russian media videos depicting the shelling of civilians by the "Ukranians"---this time a survivor stated the mortars had been fired by the separatists and the locals who were in the immediate area were told to leave the bodies where they were until a Russian news team came.

Then the video was released on social media and Russian media.

http://en.inforesist.org/terrorists-...s-strictly-18/

[carl]

When I awoke this morning the first thing I saw on AOL was a photo of a well turned out members of a Ukrainian military honor guard respectfully and ceremoniously loading the body of MH17 victim on a plane to Western Europe. I contrast that with previous images of balaclava wearing 'seperatists' standing around the crash site preventing recovery of those bodies.

The Russians aren't doing so good on the world PR front.

[carl]

Outlaw:

Regarding your comment in post 1793 about the Russians being surprised at the fighting ability of the Ukrainian army; anybody who is surprised that the Ukrainians can fight has never read a history book. The Checkists were supposed to be smarter than that.

[OUTLAW 09]

Outlaw:

Regarding your comment in post 1793 about the Russians being surprised at the fighting ability of the Ukrainian army; anybody who is surprised that the Ukrainians can fight has never read a history book. The Checkists were supposed to be smarter than that.

carl--you make a point---since the first colored revolt all Ukrainian Presidents attempted to dismantle the military---wonder why?--since all had deep ties to Russia.

Then via corruption the military was even in worse condition---then along comes the Crimea which embarrassed the military and their officer and it frankly stunned them.

Then the large army of the Russians marches up to the border---all the while they attempted to rebuild, had to repair all of their disused/disrepair armor, and aircraft while trying to hold off the separatists and even rebuild their SBU into the now SSU all of the fly not to speak of the dissolving of the local police forces in the east.

It took time---the UA and NG gained combat experience--more Iraq and AFG veterans came into CC positions and in combat positions and the airborne units got their feet---and they started to move.

Putin has been trying hard to get the Ukrainians to accept this federation thing and he got out maneuvered during the 7 day ceasefire where the UA went straight to combat ops and have not stopped since.

Putin forgot along the way that the Ukrainians understand Russian mindsets and strategies.

Now either he must go all in and crash the Russian economy or try to disengage some how and "claim" a victory and go home.

There was some serious UA statements that they had actually anticipated a Russian invasion between 14-17 July and it did look like it was coming ---then the crash and he is in a deep hole and cannot figure out how to get out of it---you see that in their total collapse of their information war campaign---it is all over the map and still groping---actually doubt seriously if it will recover like it was before the crash.

Still think he is looking for an excuse to come in via "peacekeeping"--once he is in his military will not leave.

Obama and the US intel community has given Putin a fig leaf to hide behind--meaning they stated there were no Russian military involved---but notice they did not say no security service or what one Russian hardliner recently called the "civil society"---fig leaf meaning get your guys under control because whether you were or were not involved it is still your weapons, your missiles and your proxy mercenaries that are causing the problems.

EU newspapers seem to think he still does not get the fig leaf concept nor does he want one as that is a sign of weakness and will be read by his population as weakness as polls in the last days state Russian citizens want the Russians in the Donbas protected--that is new and Putin follows the polls closely---so go the polls so goes Russian foreign affairs.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...ns-357561.html

[OUTLAW 09]

Firn---it appears the Merkel is signaling to Putin that Germany is no longer accepting his statements that he really wants a rapid investigation of the crash and he is not influencing the separatists.

As Merkel seems to state---enough is enough---she basically does not believe him any longer---at the very outset of the Crimea---she made the statement that she felt Putin was in an altered state of reality.

Germany will be stopping on it's own any financial support to oil exploration and oil production in Russia--ouch.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/auslan...-a-982546.html

[carl]

Outlaw:

If Vladie buck follows the polls and sends regular Russian troops in then we will see irregular and guerrilla war as done by people who really know how to do it, the effect multiplied because the Ukrainians have an open border to the west through which support can come. The Russians will pay heavily. Unfortunately given normal Russian army brutality, so will Ukrainian civilians.

[mirhond]

Unfortunately given normal Russian army brutality, so will Ukrainian civilians.

Now I see your point: when Ukrainian army is actually killing Ukrainian citizens - it's OK, if, hypothetically, Russian army would be killing Ukrainian citizens - it' won't be OK. It sounds outlandish, but explains very much of your comments.