Steady Steve...Originally Posted by Dayuhan
Outlaw has been very patient with you... IMHO.
Why not follow his sage advice and contribute to this discussion rather than continually attempt to trip him and others up. That would be a little courtesy you could show everyone around here.
I would suggest that you merge the two Ukraine related threads, move them to Europe arena and allow general - blow by blow - discussion to continue as is.
Then let those who seek to start and contibute to a more specialised, measured and sedatory thread on a sub topic do so.
David---moves make sense to me.
firn---appears to confirm your comments---the UA is now fighting night and day ops and are on a roll even with losses being absorbed they seem to sense the fighting is shifting.
Their attitude is summed up in the last two sentences from the reporting journalist.
Noticed it is their airborne, SF, and ex alpha units that are carrying the fight forward.
There was an article yesterday out of the Ukraine that a lot of the privately funded and supported independent fighting units are gaining a lot of new members as the Ukrainian government is indicating that after it is all over they must rebuild the police, security, and military and those that have fought will have priority chances in joining the new organizations.
From today kyivpost.com
The anti-terrorist Forces move towards the border with Russia. Shakhtersk, Torez, Snizhne. Journalist Petro Shuklinov wrote about it on his Facebook page.
«This is only one direction. All details of the forced march tonight after the operation has finished. Dozens of bodies of militants on the side of the roads. «We are going to our guys», — SMS. By the end of the day the territory of the militants will be cleared. If we will manage to hold to it — excellent. However, with such course of military operations there will be many losses.
We are moving to a phase where our Forces directly engage with terrorists. In addition to that they will need to fight on both side inside the corridor, but we have enough forces to widen the corridor every day. It will be very difficult, but there is no time to wait. We need victory. We need to save our guys on the border. We need to finish this war.»
Previously mentioned DPR Russia premier Borodai and Kremlin guy Chesnakov telephone conversation.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/maxseddon/uk...ebels-who-shotBorodai “The biggest problem I have now is that I’m running out of dough,” he says. “Out of the 150 I took with me, they’re basically all gone, because I gave 50 to Zakhar, a million hryvnia [$85,000] to Igor [Strelkov], plus all the other expenses.” It is not clear what currency the rest of the money discussed is in.
“The money’s in place, but we’ll actually have it in two weeks,” the man continues. “We’ll have it if this situation holds out for two weeks. You see, if nothing changes militarily, this situation isn’t going to hold out those two weeks.”
“If it doesn’t hold out, it doesn’t hold out,” the other man says. “Sasha, don’t burden me with this crap. We agreed about the 180 — take it. The rest we’re going to have to try and work out. If there’s not going to be a flow, then we’ll organize more through the same channel.”
The man alleged to be Chesnakov then conveys what he says is a request from Archmandrite Tikhon, a senior priest in the Russian Orthodox Church widely rumored to be Putin’s confessor, to help rein in Strelkov, who is lionized in pro-Kremlin quarters but widely seen as a loose cannon after he abandoned his stronghold of Slovyansk for Donetsk, the provincial capital, earlier this month.
The man says that Strelkov should give an interview to make clear that his “commander-in-chief” is Putin to dispel notions of a split between the rebels on the ground and their ostensible patrons in Moscow. “‘At the present time I’m understandably not carrying out his direct orders, because I’m in a different country, but I have the utmost respect for him and believe him to be the most brilliant leader of modern times, thanks to whom Russia rose from its knees, and we all look at him with hope,’” the man says, putting words in Strelkov’s mouth.
“‘But not in the sense of “come on already, how long can this go on,” but in the sense that we love him, believe in him, he is our ideal and whatever decisions he takes, we’ll carry out any decisions he takes. Because we think that he is the wise and experienced leader of the Russian world.’”
kaur---two things;
1. the intercepts seem to indicate that they think they may not hold out longer than two weeks-- might be shorter after the UA broke through to the border yesterday near the MH17 crash site.
2. here is a Russian border guard ----this time posting the fact that he is crossing through the Ukrainian border crossing point.
They just cannot stop their internet postings. They really do need a short class on operational security.
http://sprotyv.info/en/news/2379-rus...trates-ukraine
kaur--not so sure they should be pushing Strelkov as their face of the revolt if the charges that he participated in war crimes in Bosnia and that could led to the International Courts charges. Just as now he tended to leave photos of myself that have now resurfaced.
With a 50B USD suit lost by Putin over Yukos, the Ukrainians going to court over their lost Crimea oil and gas assets/properties another estimated 180B USD, another 3B USD in gas stored inside the Ukraine,the Ukrainians taking Gasprom to international court over alleged overcharging and charging for gas not delivered at approximately 6B USD, with the Ukrainians going to court over Ukrainian government assets in the Crimea taken over by Russia totaling over 145B USD. That does not include the additional Billions in military facilities taken over by Russia to include the Black Sea fleet home port.
Even if Putin succeeded in the eastern Ukraine--Russia will be paying dearly literally forever.
What many do not know is that if the Hague International Court rules against a government and they then lose on appeal the fines levied can be collected through any means---seizures of oil/gas shipments, impounding of merchant shipping and their cargoes--civilian aircraft belonging to Aeroflot---anything that can be seized is fair game.
Russia is having a hard day today---first they complain that the US is smearing the Russians in the media about them firing rockets and artillery into the Ukraine, then they flatly state that what was in the social media from Russian soldiers was fakes and lies, and then yesterday they demanded the US provide evidence about the rocket and artillery strikes.
Then yesterday after all of the Russian complaints the US releases overhead imagery which one can easily identify as coming from satellites of before and after shots of the strikes against a Ukrainian outpost along the border together with the burn marks left by the BM 21 firings and the craters amongst the outpost.
Now I know there is this thing called fog of war, but I hardly believe the Ukrainians shelled their own troops.
So now it begs the question if it was not the Russian Army who fired BM21s and artillery just how did the FSB and the Russian Federated Border Security Service know nothing about it---a glaring lack of security it seems on the part of Russia when someone can roll in a complete BM21 BN, fire and then depart---the same for the artillery fire--roll in set up fire and be gone.
Not sure Russia wants to admit that someone is carrying out a false flag attack from their sovereign territory against the Ukraine---maybe it was the CIA?
Now this today from Interfax:
07/28 16:06 U.S. images cannot serve as proof of Russia's responsibility for Ukraine shelling - ministry (Part 2)
The site http://ukraineatwar.blogspot.nl/ was the first mixed blogger/journalist effort in identifying the Buk and using OSINT to confirm the Buk, where it had been and it's removal back to Russia.
Today they have released an analysis done on a French journalist for Match that tracked down the trucking company in Donetsk that was used to move the Buk back to Russia---owner admits it was his truck -- "Claims the truck had been stolen"---wonder if the Russians returned it?
There is a new photo of the truck and the covered Buk that has not been seen before.
Then there is a good analysis done on the single photo showing the missile trail as it was fired---Russian bloggers/media have been disparately trying to disprove that single photo.
Lastly there is great analysis work on the rocket and artillery fire coming out of Russia and into the Ukraine.
kaur--rumors are these two--- Girkin and Bezler--- have fled the Donetsk--intercepts are indicating their own mercenaries are trying to find them.
Maybe they realized the Ukrainian Army was about to encircle the Donetsk which was completed yesterday effectively cutting Donetsk off from resupply, money, and fighters.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/07/2...-fled-donetsk/
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-28-2014 at 06:27 PM.
Progress of Ukrainian Offensive in the Donbas
In follow-up to earlier posts regarding the situation in East Ukraine, yesterday the Ukrainian army isolated and partially captured a key railroad and road intersection at Debaltsevo. Debaltesvo is 40 clicks east of Donetsk and connects the main highway between Donetsk and Luhansk. It is also the main line of communications for the separatists between Donetsk and the Russian border.The Ukrainians were expected to turn west in order to surround a key advance redoubt at Horlivka (population 300,000). Instead, in a true example of the operational art, they left a small blocking force and sent a mechanized brigade some 20 kilometers south over open country to attack between the towns of Shakhtarsk and Torez, which sit astride the only other remaining east-west highway along the separatist line of communications with Russia. This took the Russians by surprize since all separatist defenses along this line were pointed south towards other Ukrainian forces that are pinned against the Russian border. Yesterday afternoon, the separatist field commander, RGU Lt.Col. Igor Girkin a/k/a Strelkov, reacted decisively. He pulled together a regimental sized counterattacking force (including his "Kalmius" spetzsnaz battalion) from further east at Krasnyi Luch and hurled it towards the Ukrainian penetration. According to Russian sit reps as of last night, the Ukrainians were stopped on the main highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. Both sides reported losses in tanks and personnel carriers. Apparently, most of the damage was caused by massed rocket artillery from the separatists side and tactical air from the Ukrainian side (the cross-country jaunt obviated the ability of the Ukrainians to bring along much self-propelled arty). From Russian accounts, the Ukrainians were not content to fight it out along the highway between Shakhtarsk and Torez. They sent part of their column cross-country to the southeast in a bold attempt to seize Saur-Mohyla Mountain. Saur-Mohyla was the site of bloody fighting between the Red Army and the Wehrmacht in 1942. A Mount Rushmore sized monument sits atop of the hill. The hill has been in separatist hands for the last month, from where the Russians direct accurate artillery fire against Ukrainian forces that are pinned along the Russian border. As of this afternoon, both sides claim that they control the mountain. Moreover, the Ukrainians are dug in along the outskirts of Shakhtarsk and at a key "T" intersection that leads from the highway south to Saur-Mohyla. If the Ukrainians can withstand counterattacks from both east and west (from Donetsk) in order to (1) interdict communications to Donetsk and if they can (2) capture and hold Saur-Mohyla Mountain, the separatists are cut off and in serious trouble. Given that more than half of the separatists are Russian mercenaries, soldiers of fortune (Serbs, Chechens, Latvians) or young Russian adrenalin junkies looking for their first taste of war, the separatist forces in Donetsk can collapse soon. However, as always in war, not so fast. There are reports of a mechanized force massing at Krasnyi Luch in the east. Video indicates that they all have state-of-the-art Russian vehicles, heavy weapons and a uniform appearance (with all insignia removed). These can only have appeared from inside of Russia. The bold Ukrainian maneuver of two days ago can collapse in the face of a powerful counterattack over the course of the next 2-3 days. Furthermore, while someone in the Ukrainian operational staff understands the importance of avoiding positional war, maintaining tempo and keeping the initiative (perhaps the Chief of the General Staff, Lt.Gen Victor Muzychko), one can only achieve this if you have fresh reserves. The Ukrainian army consists of only 2 tank brigades, 8 mechanized brigades and four airmobile/parachute brigades. At least three have to block other potential invasion routes from Russia and the rest have been fighting non-stop for two months. The Ukrainians may be at the end of their operational rope. Moreover, while greatly improved over the last two months, their combat groups are not experienced enough for the Wehrmacht like flexible operations that the general staff keeps ordering them to execute. Stay tuned. Fascinating and horrible at the same time.
Understand from bloggers that there was a major tank on tank battle near Shakhtarsk most of the day with the UA actually holding it's own against a larger Russian tank force and that in fact from their onboard journalists they do control the mountain.
Civilians are fleeing the town and have spoken about the UA being actually in parts of the town.
The problems with the BM21s are the resupply--if they are firing heavily then their field supply stocks are getting low as some blogging is indicating a general shortage of ammo is now starting to kick in on the irregular side. It appears the UA is rearming from captured stocks while on the move as they find it which seems to be virtually everywhere.
Suspect also if irregulars have quickly formed a relief column then they are venerable in that area if the UA decides to push into it--correct?
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-28-2014 at 10:14 PM.
Thanks for the detail Outlaw09!
Europe seems to be quickly gaining political will to be effective against Russia. Russia looks to be actually thinking of armed intervention. Rather interesting few weeks.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/wo...=top-news&_r=0
U.S. and Europe Set to Toughen Russia Sanctions
The United States and Europe put aside their differences and agreed Monday to sharply escalate economic sanctions against Russia amid worries that Moscow is stepping up its intervention in Ukraine and may be setting the stage for an outright invasion.
After months in which European leaders resisted going as far as the Americans, the two sides settled on a package of measures that would target Russia’s financial, energy and military sectors. In some cases, the Europeans may actually leapfrog beyond what the United States has done, forcing Washington to catch up.
Shchors---Putin is all in now as he cannot lose--the irregulars and the arms he has sent are no longing helping his proxy get a federated solution. so a defeat of the proxy is in the eyes of Putin a visual defeat of himself in the global media. there is some concern in the ruling elite that the recent polling showing him to be strong is mushy in three critical areas and those numbers are starting to drift downwards within the Russian population. Paritculary interesting is that a majority of Russians want no war with the Ukraine.
He continues to beef up his border forces and this is the key he seems to be pulling units from the Far East who have no understanding of the Ukraine thus will be more than willing to attack and kill "fascists" his main information war drumbeat for the first three months.
Concerning continued troop buildup:
3. Russia continues to build up the number of its troops near the state border with Ukraine.
In addition to the units previously concentrated at the border, [new] units from other regions of Russia are currently being deployed. Earlier, the movement of the divisions of the 32nd Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 24th Separate Brigade of the GRU of the General Staff were recorded from Novosibirsk Oblast [region].
This weekend, we documented the redeployment of units from the Russian 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade [MRB] to the state border with Ukraine. It looked strange, given that the Brigade’s permanent place of deployment is in the Murmansk Oblast [region] of Russia [in the northwest]. Today, however, these data have been confirmed.
The 200th MRB has tanks, BM-21 “Grad” and BM-27 “Hurricane” MLRS, 2SZ “Acacia” self-propelled artillery at its disposal. That is everything that Putin’s troops have unleashed on Ukraine in recent weeks.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-29-2014 at 06:34 AM.
Now US finally calls a spade by the name spade---I had mentioned a number of times in the really early part of this thread that the US had to final ly call out Russia on it's open and blatant violation of the cruise missile development as part of their signing of the INF. That was the first true indication of where Putin was headed and we ignored it in order to do the reset thing.
Next they have to finally call Russia out in it's failure to have destroyed over 2000 tanks and APCs which they signed up to do under the OSCE as did and was carried out by the US and NATO---a lot of those OSCE scheduled T64/72s are now in the Ukraine.
So much for the "Russian reset"---the EU is talking actually about Putin having abused that reset.
Estimates of the coming sanctions are running in the 100B range over the next two years---a fifth of the Russian foreign currency reserves.
What is going to hurt is that by being cut off from the EU and US capital markets and currency exchange markets--Russia just cannot take the billions from their USD/Euro foreign currency reserves to prop up their economy---in order to do that they must cross over the sanctions which now they cannot do thus the Russian central bank is in one heck of a bind now. Maybe that is the reason for a lot of talk about a special tax on the rich?
http://news.yahoo.com/russia-violate...002749693.html
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-29-2014 at 06:47 AM.
Russia must becoming desperate to send over a full COL in uniform to delivery weapons to an insurgent group---he had to have been from the GRU.
51st Bde refers to their airborne BDE which has been in the lead attacks lately and has been holding down also a critical border area while getting shelled daily by both the mercenaries and the Russians.
Yesterday in the ATO zone a sniper eliminated a Colonel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, whist he tried to deliver weapons from Russia to terrorists again, writes Zaporozhye city council deputy Denis Pyatigorets on his Facebook page.
«Today, brazen from impunity Colonel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in uniform, chevron straps and (as it turned out) with an identity card was carrying arms to separatists from Russia to the territory of Ukraine. However, the arms did not reach the destination. A kind-hearted and indescribably modest sniper from the reconnaissance group of the 51 brigade enhanced unpretentious decoration of a moscovit UAZ vehicle with brains of the brazen Colonel.» — writes Pyatigorets.
Accompanying the Russian Army Colonel group of people was detained by the ATO Forces.
http://en.inforesist.org/a-staff-off...-the-ato-area/
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-29-2014 at 12:16 PM.
Interesting dichotomy between this:
and this:
Putin can't afford to lose in the Eastern Ukraine... but can he afford to sink his own economy and provoke the wrath of the oligarchs and the business community, both licit and illicit?
Russia is in some ways uniquely vulnerable to sanctions. Sanctions generally fail because they are based on the premise that if you hurt the people, the people will pressure the government into changing course. That doesn't help if the people have no influence over the government. In Russia's case, sanctions have the capacity to hurt not "the people", but that small subset of the "the people" that is internationally connected, engaged in large scale business, and wealthy. Putin may not have to listen to "the people"... but can he afford to antagonize the oligarchs by provoking further sanctions?
Putin is living dangerously no matter what he does, and it will be interesting to see what his next move will be.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Dayuhan--a good comment---the problem for the west is will the sanctions be enough of a short term threat vs definitely a long term threat weapon---no actually they could in fact destroy the Russian economy for years to come.
There was a US Army saying---money is in fact a weapons system.
If the EU sanctions coming today indicate a credit cut off from EU banks then Russia is in serious trouble---there are German indications as well that the EU Central Bank will be raising the risk levels for Russian loans and credits and today the Russian central bank also pulled back a new bond offer and indications are they will be raising again the interest rates. EU meeting started 10:30 European time.
IMO Putin does not see all of this as he is focused on his image of Russia as a superpower equal to all superpowers thus "entitled" to it's role and what he says should be the goals of that Russian superpower.
Right now the information war is setting the stage for the Russian population that the coming economic hardships are the single source of their problems and it is all the West's fault and that is being reflected as well in the polling.
An ancient Stalinist tactic--- in when trouble blame the West.
If the reported sniper killing of a Russian COL inside the Ukraine is in fact truth---waiting for his ID to show up in the blogs which it will via the SBU--- then that is an indication that Putin definitely is not listening and in fact he is all in.
IMO Putin is startled that the West has hung in so long after the Crimea---his experiences with the Western reactions stems from the Georgian and Moldavian events where the West went back to normal relatively quickly---this time that is not happening much to the surprise of Moscow which one occasionally sees in random comments the last couple of weeks.
There was a short comment sent out via Interfax yesterday contributed to the Russian FM---OK West tell us what you want as we do not understand your demands---found it strange as it did not fit the information war flow from Interfax---it was almost like a plea for some assistance ie a bridge for a way out of the mess they are in.
Last edited by OUTLAW 09; 07-29-2014 at 12:52 PM.
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