This is an open question in two parts; 1) Is it possible for Afghanistan to reach the threshold per capita GDP that political scientists feel is required for sustaining a democracy, and 2) If not, what form of government should the international community be promoting in Afghanistan?

A little background from a recent news release. This article dealt with predictions of the potential for China to transition to democracy, but the GDP numbers are what are important.

"China's grassroots progress toward democracy is comparable to that which took place in the early 1970s in Taiwan, when per capita income reached about $2,500, similar to China's income today, Rowen writes.

"The worldwide norm, first clearly established by [Stanford Professor Emeritus] Seymour Martin Lipset, is 'the richer the country, the freer,' '' Rowen writes, although he also notes that Saudi Arabia and Brunei, countries enriched through oil, have not followed that pattern.

"Growing wealth is accompanied by increased education, the building of business and government institutions with some autonomy, and the formation of attitudes that enable democratic governments to survive when they have a chance at power," he said. If China's economic growth continues at today's rates, it will reach mean incomes of $7,000 to $8,000 by 2015. "Spain, Portugal, Chile and Argentina, in addition to Taiwan and South Korea, all made the transition to democracy while they were within this income range."

http://news-service.stanford.edu/pr/96/961115china.html

According to the CIA World Fact Book, Afghanistan's GDP is about $1,000. Given this information, and granted it is only one of several factors to consider in democratic development, can Afghanistan reach the $2,500 threshold let alone $7-8K? If not, what options are available?