I don't really have enough information on the Russian air campaign to make any conclusions or observations. Hopefully more information will be forthcoming.

As for specific comments by your friend, I'll offer a few:

From discussions with Israelis and others, in person, SA-11s are easily out manoeuvred by turning beyond the tracking parameters of the missile, particularly by crossing fighter pairs. One Israeli AD manufacturer said “I have seen it many times over the Golan.”
I think if the Israeli's had tried to out-turn an SA-11 with a Backfire over the Golan, their conclusions might be different. There are many other factors to consider as well.

That the Russians were unable to out run their own missiles, which they designed, is somewhat of a poor reflection!
Well, look at the combat record of the Patriot against coalition aircraft in OIF. The only aircraft and pilot that survived did so only because he had a HARM to take out the engagement radar.

Not knowledgeable to comment on anything else at this point. Hopefully your friend will join - the more, the merrier!