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Thread: Hamas in Gaza (merged thread)

  1. #221
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    Default nitpicking

    Quote Originally Posted by yusra View Post
    Regarding the "most densely populated" question: What is correct is that Jabalia refugee camp in North Gaza is the most densely populated place on earth, where over 110,000 Palestinian refugees live in an area 1.5 square kilometres. They lost their homes in Southern Palestine (now Southern Israel) in 1948.
    I'm just being pedantic here, but at 76,207 persons per square km (UNRWA), Jabalia is nowhere near the most densely populated urban area on earth.

    Having been to several Gaza refugee camps, and having lived in downtown Cairo, the latter is much more densely populated (around 136,000/km2).

    Parts of New York are over 110,000 /km2, and parts of Mumbai over 150,000 /km2. Parts of Hong Kong city (not territory) are 1,924,263 /km2, or 26 times more dense than Jabalia. You'll find some comparative statistics here.

    This isn't to say that Gaza isn't very crowded—it is. It also has a very young population (63% are aged 19 or younger, and 39% are under aged 10 according to the 1997 census). As a result, military operations there are akin to a shoot-out in a primary school—with all the inevitable resulting human tragedy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
    As a result, military operations there are akin to a shoot-out in a primary school—with all the inevitable resulting human tragedy.
    Speaking of which:



    (UNRWA school/emergency shelter, Gaza)

    I'll insert some kudos here for colleagues under fire: UNRWA is doing a truly outstanding job in the current crisis in Gaza, providing emergency shelters, foodstuffs, and medical clinics for the 1 million Palestinian refugees in Gaza, together with all other Gazans.

  3. #223
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    Default Weighing Crimes and Ethics in Urban Warfare

    Weighing Crimes and Ethics in Urban Warfare - Steven Erlanger, New York Times

    Your unit, on the edges of the northern Gaza town of Jabaliya, has taken mortar fire from the crowded refugee camp nearby. You prepare to return fire, and perhaps you notice - or perhaps you don’t, even though it’s on your map - that there is a United Nations school just there, full of displaced Gazans. You know that international law allows you to protect your soldiers and return fire, but also demands that you ensure that there is no excessive harm to civilians. Do you remember all that in the chaos?

    You pick GPS-guided mortars, which are supposed to be accurate and of a specific explosive force, and fire back. In the end, you kill some Hamas fighters but also, the United Nations says, more than 40 civilians, some of them children.

    Have you committed a war crime?
    More at The New York Times .

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    Haaretz - 13:28 16/01/2009

    Is Israel using illegal weapons in its offensive on Gaza?

    By Amira Hass

    Marc Garlasco, a senior military analyst at Human Rights Watch (HRW), has come to Israel. His mission: to examine whether the weapons that both sides are using are themselves legal and whether the use of them is legal.
    For years, Amira Hass was the only Israeli journalist resident in Gaza. She knows it intimately, and is very sympathetic to its people. Her reporting on Gaza political and social issues is usually outstanding. She isn't a military correspondent, however (and it shows).

    As for Garlasco, this is an interview that he probably shouldn't have given—it comes off as far too gee-whiz and lacking in any sort of objectivity, although the issues are real and important.

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    Default Palestinian War Crimes?

    Since Hamas is in government shouldn't there be an investigation into whether the targetting of their rocket systems complies with the laws of war? How about their use of fighters wearing civilian clothing? Or siting weapons systems in the middle of sensitive sites like schools?

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    Default actually, HRW does investigate all sides

    Quote Originally Posted by Jones_RE View Post
    Since Hamas is in government shouldn't there be an investigation into whether the targetting of their rocket systems complies with the laws of war? How about their use of fighters wearing civilian clothing? Or siting weapons systems in the middle of sensitive sites like schools?
    There have been in the past, and there certainly will be in the future. As Garlasco comments in the interview:

    Garlasco and Human Rights Watch also examine the other side, and he says, "We believe that the Grad and Qassam are illegal weapons because they are not accurate enough to be used in this situation." He adds that Hamas makes frequent use of land mines and explosive charges that are liable to injure civilians.

    ...

    In 2005, Garlasco met with a political representative of Hamas and told him that use of Grads is a contravention of the Geneva Convention. The reply he got from the Hamas man was: "'All Israelis are military.' And I explained to them that their reading of international law is wrong."
    After the 2006 war, HRW undertook an extensive investigation of Hizbullah rocket attacks against Israel. It found:

    Hezbollah's attacks in violation of the laws of war, when combined with such statements indicating criminal intent, is strong evidence that some Hezbollah members and commanders were responsible for war crimes.

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    You pick GPS-guided mortars, which are supposed to be accurate and of a specific explosive force, and fire back. In the end, you kill some Hamas fighters but also, the United Nations says, more than 40 civilians, some of them children.
    OK, while I get where this guy is coming from, I have to jump in with some corrections.

    A.) There are no GPS-guided mortar rounds in service with the IDF, that I am aware of. Yes there is a 120mm mortar round in development, with IMI. It may have reached operational service, but based on other things I know, I doubt it. If this was responsible for the civilian deaths, then a bit more development is needed.

    Yes, they have LINAPS type auto-laying kits on some types, but not all. It's a mortar positioning system, not a guidance system.

    B.) The first round CEP of an 81mm mortar mounted on an M-113 is, IIRC 100-150m - anyone with better figures, jump in - based on a range 5,600m. No mortar can be more than 1% accurate over total range, so 56m right there for something fired (and made) in a laboratory. There are limits to GPS gun-laying systems and throw in wind, and few other things, and the errors creep up.

    - so trying to hit anyone within 2-300m radius of protected facility is challenging to put it mildly. Anyone, with any military experience knows that.

    C.) M825A1 shell is not defined as an incendiary weapon by the Third Protocol to the Convention on Conventional Weapons.

    Not making apologies for anyone or anything. Just filling on the blanks that you'd assume some of the experts would be aware of.
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    A.) There are no GPS-guided mortar rounds in service with the IDF, that I am aware of. Yes there is a 120mm mortar round in development, with IMI. It may have reached operational service, but based on other things I know, I doubt it. If this was responsible for the civilian deaths, then a bit more development is needed.
    Wilf: I have no idea what the answer is, but Haaretz did report it as a GPS-guided mortar:


    Haaretz - 08:51 11/01/2009

    IDF investigation shows errant mortar hit UN building in Gaza

    By Amos Harel

    A preliminary investigation into the fatal shooting by the Israel Defense Forces into a United Nations building in northern Gaza on Tuesday reveals the Israeli troops firing on the building missed their targets by some 30 meters.

    ...

    The probe, which was conducted by the Paratrooper Brigade whose troops were responsible for the area, found that the army's location system to pinpoint launch sites indicated that militants had launched a Qassam rocket into Israel from within a yard adjacent to the courtyard of the UN building.

    The troops had intended to launch a smart missile to take out the Palestinian launch team but a technical malfunction made this impossible, according to the probe. The commanders of the force instead decided to fire on the Qassam team with mortar shells equipped with a Global Positioning System for accurate fire.

    However, the GPS element has an error margin of 30 meters and one of the three rounds fired by the paratrooper force slammed into the building owned by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA.

  9. #229
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
    Wilf: I have no idea what the answer is, but Haaretz did report it as a GPS-guided mortar:
    Rex, well aware. However,
    The commanders of the force instead decided to fire on the Qassam team with mortar shells equipped with a Global Positioning System for accurate fire.
    But there is massive ambiguity in "mortar Shells" or "mortars" and GPS "positioning" and "guidance"

    If there are now reliable GPS guided 120mm mortars, then happy days for my work, because that makes life a lot easier!
    Infinity Journal "I don't care if this works in practice. I want to see it work in theory!"

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    WINEP, 14 Jan 09: The IDF in Gaza: Operational Concepts, Lines of Effort, and Effects
    .....Cast Lead appears to be guided by a number of important operational concepts: continuous attacks on Hamas and associated entities, allowing Hamas little time to regroup; pervasive attacks throughout the Gaza Strip and against the entire Hamas target system; precision attacks to ensure target destruction with minimal collateral damage; isolation of Gaza from Egypt by air attacks along the Philadelphia Corridor; division of Gaza in half by ground forces; attention to humanitarian requirements while maintaining operational freedom of action; attention to information and psychological aspects of the battle; and minimizing IDF casualties through the application of heavy firepower and avoiding clashes in built-up and densely populated areas. Although these concepts are not immutable and some tension exists among them, particularly between the requirements to destroy enemy forces and facilities and to avoid civilian casualties, they shape the direction, emphasis, and intensity of IDF actions.....
    JP, 18 Jan 09: Operation Cast Lead heads to the courtroom
    The next battle concerning Operation Cast Lead is likely to be played out in the courtroom rather than in the alleys of the Gaza Strip.....

    ....According to data gathered by NGO Monitor, Amnesty International has accused Israel of "unlawful attacks," Human Rights Watch accused Israel of "indiscriminate" attacks that were against the "rules of law," and Oxfam said Israeli leaders have committed "massive and disproportionate violence... in violation of international law."

    These allegations may find their way into foreign courts - with Britain and Spain likely sites for suits and even attempts at criminal prosecution. In the past, many of the allegations against Israeli military and defense leaders were filed with British magistrates, since in the United Kingdom, individuals presenting evidence can request indictments from magistrates. In such instances, Israel must rely on local lawyers to plead its case in the courts.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    But there is massive ambiguity in "mortar Shells" or "mortars" and GPS "positioning" and "guidance"

    If there are now reliable GPS guided 120mm mortars, then happy days for my work, because that makes life a lot easier!
    More on both the GPS "guided"/"targeted" mortar issue, and the use of WP in Gaza (I'm sure Wilf caught this in Haaretz, but for the benefit of others):



    Haaretz, 21 January 2009
    IDF probes improper use of phosphorus shells in Gaza Strip

    By Amos Harel

    Alkalai's probe is thus focusing on the second type: phosphorus shells, either 81mm or 120mm, that are fired from mortar guns. About 200 such shells were fired during the recent fighting, and of these, according to the probe's initial findings, almost 180 were fired at orchards in which gunmen and rocket-launching crews were taking cover.

    The one problematic incident was the reserve paratroops brigade that fired about 20 such shells in a built-up area of Beit Lahiya. Many international organizations say phosphorus shells should not be used in heavily populated areas. The brigade's officers, however, say the shells were fired only at places that had been positively identified as sources of enemy fire.

    The 120mm shells, a recent acquisition, have a computerized targeting system attached to a GPS. Brigade commanders say they were very effective, but they were also responsible for two very serious mishaps: a strike on a UNRWA school that killed 42 Palestinians and a friendly fire incident that seriously wounded two officers.

  12. #232
    Council Member Ken White's Avatar
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    Default Couple of minor points...

    Don't know but would bet the Israeli GPS guided 120 mortar round is NOT a WP round, that would make no sense.

    The use of WP in war is 'legal' -- it is not a proscribed weapon. It is used heavily in some cases and few who engage in infantry combat will avoid getting WP burns occasionally. As they say, it only hurts for a little while...

    There are those who say it should not be used at all; there are others who say it should not be used if civilians are present. Those who say that in most cases have never had to worry about getting shot and generally do not understand all they know about what they are saying.

    I do not know if they Israeli's used it or not; they probably did -- I certainly would have -- and if so, the noise about it is merely spin. HE wounds and kills FAR more people than WP.

  13. #233
    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I do not know if they Israeli's used it or not; they probably did -- I certainly would have -- and if so, the noise about it is merely spin. HE wounds and kills FAR more people than WP.
    The IDF used the US M825A1 WP airburst shell, specifically designed to be used "danger close" or on own troops. The WP airburst was seen commonly on TV, and the IDF never denied they were using it.

    I agree with Ken, that the use of "Smoke" is a vital tactical advantage when operating in urban terrain and almost anywhere else.
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    Default What about Iran

    We seem (and I admit I have been scanning) to be missing the elephant in the room of Iran's pivotal role behnid both Hizballah and Hamas, both of which are heavily influenced by it to the point of being proxies. Serious fundamentalism, rather than nationalism/ethnic buckshee Jew-Arab, really started in 1979 with the Iranian revolution, and they have been the most organised and virulent exporters of it since.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coldstreamer View Post
    We seem (and I admit I have been scanning) to be missing the elephant in the room of Iran's pivotal role behnid both Hizballah and Hamas, both of which are heavily influenced by it to the point of being proxies. Serious fundamentalism, rather than nationalism/ethnic buckshee Jew-Arab, really started in 1979 with the Iranian revolution, and they have been the most organised and virulent exporters of it since.
    Hamas certainly receives weapons and some of its funding from Iran, but it is in no way an Iranian proxy. Rather, there is an alliance of convenience based on mutual self-interest.

    Ideologically, they aren't especially close—Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which long, long predates the Iranian Revolution. Domestically, close ties with Iran are not particularly popular among Palestinians (which is why Fateh supporters sometimes jeer "Shiites" at Hamas supporters). Operationally, Iran has a far more intimate relationship with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (which Hamas sometimes restrains), and even some rogue al-Aqsa Maryrs Brigade cells.

    Hizbullah's relationship with Iran, by contrast, is extremely close, complex, and fundamental.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ken White View Post
    I do not know if they Israeli's used it or not; they probably did -- I certainly would have -- and if so, the noise about it is merely spin. HE wounds and kills FAR more people than WP.
    I wasn't commenting on the rightness/wrongness of using smoke ammo in MOUT (because I agree: it is neither prohibited by CCW Protocol III nor terribly surprising)—just flagging the article.

    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    The IDF used the US M825A1 WP airburst shell
    Yes, although the article is explicitly discussing the use of an incendiary (not smoke) round by 120mm mortars (not 155mm artillery). I'm not sure whether this is the dual use incendiary/smoke M65 or M110 120mm mortar rounds, or something else.
    Last edited by Rex Brynen; 01-21-2009 at 12:16 PM.

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coldstreamer View Post
    We seem (and I admit I have been scanning) to be missing the elephant in the room of Iran's pivotal role behnid both Hizballah and Hamas, both of which are heavily influenced by it to the point of being proxies.
    Rex has it pretty on the nail in my opinion. I would only add that Iran has strategic interest in the West Bank, as key terrain in it's stated intent to "remove the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history." In terms of that game, they will do whatever it takes to exert influence on Hamas, and/or create a proxy they can control.

    ...which is what makes the recent unpleasantness in Gaza a bit of side show, in Geo-strategic terms.

    Serious fundamentalism, rather than nationalism/ethnic buckshee Jew-Arab, really started in 1979 with the Iranian revolution, and they have been the most organised and virulent exporters of it since.
    I would dispute this as a useful characterisation of the facts. From a very simple western viewpoint it fits. From a local or even regional view point it is far more complex.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rex Brynen View Post
    Yes, although the article is explicitly discussing the use of an incendiary (not smoke) round by 120mm mortars (not 155mm artillery). I'm not sure whether this is the dual use incendiary/smoke M65 or M110 120mm mortar rounds, or something else.
    I don't know of any airburst WP 81 or 120mm natures. Unfortunately, WP is axiomatically a de-facto incendiary weapon. No smoke without fire.

    I am not sure there are any dedicated "incendiary" rounds currently in IDF service (or in any NATO army for that matter). If there were, they would not be WP. They would use another compound, such as "Thermite"

    20 years ago I saw US Thermite grenade demonstrated for fun, but I understand they are now out of production.
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    Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
    Rex has it pretty on the nail in my opinion. I would only add that Iran has strategic interest in the West Bank, as key terrain in it's stated intent to "remove the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history." In terms of that game, they will do whatever it takes to exert influence on Hamas, and/or create a proxy they can control.

    ...which is what makes the recent unpleasantness in Gaza a bit of side show, in Geo-strategic terms.
    Wilf,

    Who in the Iranian leadership structure has stated its intent as removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history, and what power do they have? Iran knows they would see nuclear annihilation if they directly attacked Israel, not to mention lose all their hard won imperial gains.

    Understandably Israel views any threat as a threat to its very existence. That said, it is as you say, far more complex on the local and regional level. Is the threat really of Iran “removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history”; or rather is the threat that Iran challenges Israel’s geo-strategic position as the top regional power, with Israel viewing that position as vital to its existence?

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    Council Member William F. Owen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bourbon View Post
    Who in the Iranian leadership structure has stated its intent as removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history, and what power do they have? Iran knows they would see nuclear annihilation if they directly attacked Israel, not to mention lose all their hard won imperial gains.
    I think Ahmadinejad comment is well known = بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود
    I don't speak Farsi, but I have a few friends that do. Either way, it's not "live in Peace"

    Understandably Israel views any threat as a threat to its very existence. That said, it is as you say, far more complex on the local and regional level. Is the threat really of Iran “removing the Jews/Israel/Zionists from the book of history”; or rather is the threat that Iran challenges Israel’s geo-strategic position as the top regional power, with Israel viewing that position as vital to its existence?
    Does it matter? Israel's territorial security is founded making it either impossible or far too costly to attempt any form of military action (conventional and unconventional) against it. That hasn't altered since 1948. It's based on the "strongest tribe" principle, so recently rediscovered by the US. This had nothing to do with garnering economic or social influence. It is entirely a security necessity.

    Iran has a program of generating, co-opting and developing proxy forces in the territories surrounding Israel. I don't think anyone disputes that. Why? Who knows.
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