Reconciliation and COIN in Afghanistan

[jcustis]

Col Jones, that is an excellent explanation of the problems we incur and endure. It makes for the stuff of a political science textbook that you really ought to get around to writing, because it makes for a very resilient predictive model.

[davidbfpo]

Part One was Post 194 and Anatol Lieven had a podcast interview a week ago, courtesy of the Australian Lowy Institute:

Yesterday the noted expert on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Anatol Lieven, spoke at the Lowy Institute. In this interview, he shared with me some extraordinary insights into some of the streams of Taliban thinking about the prospects for peace in Afghanistan, including surprising speculations on whether the Taliban would ever tolerate US military bases in a post-conflict settlement.

Podcast link, it is nine minutes long:http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/...o-Taliban.aspx

[davidbfpo]

There are parts of Professor Lieven's interview that jarred with me, especially having read this long article by Dexter Filkins; hat tip to Carl who added it to a SWJ discussion:http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...urrentPage=all

[davidbfpo]

Positive, calculated gesture by Pakistan?

Details emerged after Afghanistan's High Peace Council met military and civilian leaders in Islamabad....seven "mid-ranking" Taliban figures had been released. It is understood that Mullah Nooruddin Toorabi, the former hardline Taliban justice minister who ordered men to grow beards, is among the names agreed for release but not Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, deputy to Mullah Omar.

Why do I use calculated? This helps:

Toorabi, notorious hardliner during the Taliban regime .....he was said to have mellowed in exile after 2001 and in 2005 met his previous colleagues in Abbottabad and Peshawar to consider making peace with Kabul. He was arrested soon afterwards.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...e-process.html

Slightly different report:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia/2...050926816.html

Somehow I doubt release actually means free to travel, just a nicer compound bungalow.

[davidbfpo]

Pakistan will consider freeing former Afghan Taliban second-in-command, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, if current releases of lower level members help to advance peace efforts, officials from both countries told Reuters on Thursday

Link:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8AE13B20121115

[Bob's World]

http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-e...RoveeM.twitter

Until we are willing to subjugate our tactical goals to the pursuit of our strategic ends, we are simply not going to get in front of this conflict.

Not only are Mr. Karzai's demands reasonable, their is no way any one can perceive his government as sovereign if we persist in denying this, and similar, fundamental and legal requests.

Our message is clear. We believe it is more important to roll up Taliban Squad leaders unconstrained by GIRoA's rules, than we it is to support GIRoA's pursuit of the sovereignty that is absolutely necessary to the achieving any kind of true stability.

We say we promote democracy, yet we are dedicated to preventing any Taliban influence in the government of Afghanistan.

We say we promote sovereignty, yet we allow our general's to tell a sitting national President "no" in his own country to a legal request.

That is neither democracy nor sovereignty. When Gian Gentile says we pursue a "strategy of tactics" this may not be what he means, but this is absolutely a campaign that places a cobbled together mix of tactical programs over the very strategic ends critical to resolving the conflict. We have lost our way.

[jmm99]

Reminds one a bit of the Iraq situation where 2008 Agreement signed; impasse reached on permanent agreement with Maliki; and US troops leave Iraq.

Will Karzai and his Krooks "succeed" as well as Maliki and his Muggers ?

It wouldn't break my heart if no US troops remained in Astan at the end of 2014.

Regards

Mike