I'd suggest that "Reconciliation" in Astan is a horse no more alive today then it was five years ago - or will be five years from now. The term "COIN" may or may not be used five years from now in Astan (except as it might have propaganda value). I'd bet on the notion of "Civil War" as being the more accurate.

We'll see old and new "Northern Alliance" people - e.g., Ismail Khan and Abdul Dostum of the "old", if they manage to stay alive. I'm not an Astan analyst and won't even attempt to ID the "new" people. Karzai and his Krooks should have enough assets now to live well anywhere in the World.

The Astan Bonn Constitution is not the problem. It's a mere piece of paper which has no materiality to Astan governance. That is based on its real constitution, which is what its people do - acts, not words, govern Astan.

I wouldn't negotiate with any of these ba$tards - none of whom are worth the little finger of any one of our people in Astan. Anything that we (the USA specifically and solely, not including any allies) need to get done in Astan, can get done quietly, clandestinely and covertly (if we still are able to act according to those concepts ?).

I'm sure you believe this:

from BW
We should tell Mr. Karzai that we will agree to all of his demands regarding his sovereignty immediately if does one simple thing: Follow through on his promise to hold a true reconciliation and constitutional loya jirga. The new constitution can take many forms, but it needs to ensure fundamental rights in the context of this culture, it needs to guarantee quotas of power across the major groups, it probably also needs to disempower the central government with a central army and put the majority of power down to the province level to governors with regionally recruited and operating national guard forces.
but, it's so far removed from my position that I can't even address its assertions.

So, I guess I'll just have to plead the "general issue", and let the jury decide.

Regards

Mike