Quote Originally Posted by Rank amateur
To quote RTK, "The basics are the basics." COIN 101; you can't win if the insurgents have sanctuary. Somebody needs to solve the problem. If no one else can, that's why the president gets a big house and a taxpayer funded 747; we need him to solve the difficult problems.

Personally, I think we need to establish population control in the tribal areas. Separating the foreign jihadis from the local tribes is a clear, straight froward objective. Much clearer and more straight forward than almost any strategic COIN related objective. Therefore it's achievable.
Hi RA,
In a SWJ blog last December titled "Can the Anbar Strategy Work in Pakistan?", Clint Watts illuminated three impediments to separating foreign Jihadis from the tribes:

- "al-Qa段da has operated in the tribal regions of Pakistan for more than two decades and today it is part of the region痴 fabric, not an outsider"

- Ideological fissures are small because "today there is a greater overlap between the Deobandi strain of Islam that the Taliban follows and the Salafism of al-Qa段da"

- Financial inducements are unlikely to work because the "tribes in Waziristan have already withstood six years of pressure from Musharraf and al-Qa段da has more than twenty years worth of supply networks in the region"

I believe foreign Jihadi's have also taken local wives in the 20+ years they have been visiting the tribal areas, further weaving themselves into the local fabric. Watts may or may not be right regarding the possible success of the Anbar model in Pakistan. But the point remains that separating foreign jihadis from the tribal areas of Pakistan is far from clear and straight forward.

It may indeed be achievable, but the costs and unintended consequences may not make the juice worth the squeeze. Especially if it further destabilizes and fractures Pakistan, as some suggest it will.

Quote Originally Posted by Tom Odom View Post
As Ken likes to say, "win" is too elagant and clean a word to even consider applying to this situation.
"Happy," I muttered, trying to pin the word down. But it is one of those words, like Love, that I have never quite understood. Most people who deal in words don't have much faith in them and I am no exception --especially the big ones like Happy and Love and Honest and Strong. They are too elusive and far too relative when you compare them to sharp, mean little words like Punk and Cheap and Phony. I feel at home with these, because they're scrawny and easy to pin, but the big ones are tough and it takes either a priest or a fool to use them with any confidence.

- The Rum Diary, by Hunter S.Thompson
In this case substitute "Happy, Love, Honest, and Strong" for "Win, Victory, Democracy, and Freedom", and "Punk, Cheap, and Phony" for "Morass, Expurgate, and Blowback".