While I agree that the Taliban would have attacked the Karzai government with or without a coalition presence, I think it would be a mistake to underestimate the extent to which the presence of foreign troops both undermines Karzai's legitimacy (especially in the south) and generates popular resentment (thereby facilitating Taliban recruitment). The Taliban's base of support does not wholly rest on fear.
This isn't to say that the Afghan government would be more stable or successful without a coalition presence. The positives, for now, outweigh the negatives.
It is to say, however, that the local political and ideological consequences of a foreign military presence are far from inconsequential, and need to recognized and addressed.
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