Good Layman's guide to the financial crisis

[selil]

Nassim Taleb, Black Swans for an (easy) understanding of the math. Then every issue of the economist in the last 10 years (I'm not kidding). Then sit back and thing about it. Everybody is trying to equate this depression to the "Great Depression" even when all the economic indicators are MUCH worse. You also need the 1970s through late 1990s education in economic indicator abuse by the US and International organizations. After 1974 fuel crisis they started really messing with the numbers but Clinton made it high art. Bush just followed the script. As such comparisons are hard and that means you need to look for the changing patterns. The real estate debacle has good roots in the 1980s Japanese bubble which led to their lost decade. Lots of good literature on that too.

[slapout9]

Yes it does. Link Below.


http://themoneymasters.wordpress.com...-stock-market/

[Schmedlap]

Everybody is trying to equate this depression to the "Great Depression" even when all the economic indicators are MUCH worse.

That seems a bit alarmist to me. Let's concede that the indicators are genuinely worse. Part of the reason for the depth and slowness of recovery of the depression were poor responses by the Fed (see Friedman and Schwarz). But we've learned from that. So, even if it is worse, our response can make it less painful. Thus far, that seems to be the case. No Hoovervilles in my neck of the woods. Out here, the "poor" are still driving cars, watching TV, and about one Ho-Ho away from type-2 diabetes.

[slapout9]

Latest from William Engdahl on Economics and A'stan and Yemen.



http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?...4&jumival=4680

[slapout9]

The Still Report #9 on fixing the monetary system. You can also review the previous 8 reports at the link below.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDZioD9QfAA&feature=sub

[Surferbeetle]

From the 8 Jan 2010 Bloomberg Pimco’s Gross Says Economy Too Fragile for Fed Exit (Update1) By Kathleen Hays and Cordell Eddings

Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest mutual fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the U.S. economy is too fragile for the Federal Reserve to back away from its stimulus measures.

“Four percent of the viable workforce has given up and dropped out,” Gross said in Bloomberg Radio interview. “To think the economy can snap back in the face of that is a bit of a stretch.”

U.S. employers eliminated 85,000 jobs in December after a revised addition of 4,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department said today. The median estimate of 76 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for no change in nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate held at 10 percent. The underemployment rate, which includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking, rose to 17.3 percent in December from 17.2 percent.

The weakening U.S. fiscal outlook may continue to push Treasury yields up faster than German bunds, Gross said. Projected increases in Treasury borrowing contrast with the fiscal outlook in Germany where a constitutional amendment has mandated a balanced budget for the country by 2016.

[selil]

The Still Report #9 on fixing the monetary system. You can also review the previous 8 reports at the link below.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDZioD9QfAA&feature=sub

Is he for real? He seems to tickle my BS! bone.. Yet I don't know enough to refute him just go .. huh? His arguments seem like strawmen.

[slapout9]

Is he for real? He seems to tickle my BS! bone.. Yet I don't know enough to refute him just go .. huh? His arguments seem like strawmen.

Real and accurate however he is a long time reporter and admits that. Milton Friedman gave full support to his concept, actually Franklin's and Lincoln's.

Here is a link to his partner (Paul Carrmack) who is a lawyer and gives more details about the plan and the Milton Friedman endordement and Ron Paul also.


http://www.themoneymasters.com/

[Dayuhan]

Is he for real? He seems to tickle my BS! bone.. Yet I don't know enough to refute him just go .. huh? His arguments seem like strawmen.

I'd say your BS bone is functioning rather well. Good example of the Michael Moore technique, though. Cherrypick a bunch of factoids that support whatever point you want to make, ignore whatever facts don't, slam your chosen bits together, announce a conclusion, declare gravely that every fact you cite is verifiably true, and you can convince people, especially if you're preaching to the choir.

Conspiracy theories play to the "us vs them" instinct, one of the most deeply implanted reflexes of the human race, and that's why their effective. "Them" may be the bankers, the Jews, the Commies, Wall Street, The Corporations, The Aliens, The Vatican, etc and ad nauseam, but as long as it lets us point the finger somebody will buy the theory.

We've seen a block of financial history stretching back to the collective psychosis of the late 90s stock frenzy unwind, and it hasn't been pretty. One of the most fascinating aspects of the unwinding, for me, has been the success that politicians of both parties have had at diverting attention from their own rather appalling oversights and mistakes to the financial industry. Certainly Wall Street makes an admirable scapegoat and deserves a share of the blame, but short-sighted actions and policies coming from Washington were at the heart of the chaos. Oddly, much of the problem came from Democrats acting like Republicans and Republicans acting like Democrats... but I suppose that sort of thing is to be expected.

[Ken White]

The above makes for two great Posts in one night. Well done.

[Ski]

All true, but I'd add the two systems reinforce themselves as you see Wall St tycoons move into important positions within the Fed and vice versa. Add in the campaign donations - and Wall St firms are #1 in donations to political campaigns - and the system starts getting real inbred.

And it's going to get much worse now that the Supreme Court has overturned a century old decision that placed caps on corporate donations:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation-a...0,850920.story

We're really going down the road of no return here. Corporations can now effectively buy their politician of choice.

We've seen a block of financial history stretching back to the collective psychosis of the late 90s stock frenzy unwind, and it hasn't been pretty. One of the most fascinating aspects of the unwinding, for me, has been the success that politicians of both parties have had at diverting attention from their own rather appalling oversights and mistakes to the financial industry. Certainly Wall Street makes an admirable scapegoat and deserves a share of the blame, but short-sighted actions and policies coming from Washington were at the heart of the chaos. Oddly, much of the problem came from Democrats acting like Republicans and Republicans acting like Democrats... but I suppose that sort of thing is to be expected.