Mandatory Reading For Anyone Interested in the Middle East: The Israeli Lobby

[Tom Odom]

Yep tough language and certainly Sec State Schultz is a great source...

But I would still not say leash as in cause in effect; the actions preliminary to those phone calls were equally causal and most were internal to the Israeli decisionmaking apparatus. Sharon was known for using the phrase "creating facts on the ground" in his military and later political career. The decision to expand the "incursion" into Lebanon was his; Begin ended up holding the proverbial bag and ultimately hung it back around Sharon's neck when the Sabra and Shatilla camp massacres came to light.

But I would agree that Schultz and Reagan did the right thing; they did use pressure and they made it stick, at least temporarily. I remember watching the episode go ahead from the sidelines in Turkey, thinking the initial multinational mission to extract the PLO and take them to Tunis was a good move. But then the decision to go back in as nominal peace enforcers made me very uneasy.

The dynamic in the region that has changed the most is external to the region: the end of the Cold War. The USSR as a source of arms, advisors, and potential backer is gone. The Camp David Accords were instrumental in removing the Egyptian-Israeli dispute as a source for Cold War brinkmanship as in the October 1973 War. Afterwards, Syria was left alone with the USSR as its supplier; 1982 pretty much showed the Syrians were not up to taking the IDF on in a conventional fight. With the collapse of the USSR in the late 80's we soon saw Syrian forces deployed as Coalition forces against Iraq.

But now in the current conflict and changed global arena, I believe that certain realities must affect how we do business. Camp David is now nearly 30 years old; during those decades, its requirements have sapped the majority available foreign aid monies (the last figure I saw was around 90%). Neither Israel nor Egypt fit the economic profile for that level of assistance. I am not saying "turn off the spigot"; dramatic moves in foreign policy carry large risks. But with the press of needs elsewhere (outside Iraq and Afghanistan), reallocation of some of those monies is overdue.

Anyway enjoyed the discussion and that's the point.

Best
Tom

[zenpundit]

Me too ! A stimulating conversation, thanks Tom!