Defending Scandanavia (catch all)

[Entropy]

My question is simply how long could the 62 Finnish Hornets stand up to Russian air power ? In short, is the expendure worth it, or could the Euros be better spent on other anti-Russian weapons ?

I supported Hornets for two deployments to Southern Watch in the 1990's when I was in the Navy. Overall, the hornet is a very capable multimission aircraft.

On your first question, without additional context, the answer has to be "it depends." If Finnish training and tactics are comparable with the US, I think they could do quite well against the Russians, assuming they have a robust air surveillance and C3 network to support the aircraft.

On your second question, any answer is going to be subjective. It seems Finland's primary goal is deterrence and for that purpose I think a multirole aircraft like the hornet is a decent choice. If deterrence fails, and when the aircraft are fully air-to-ground capable, the Finnish hornets will provide a flexible force able to respond to a variety of threat scenarios.

[J Wolfsberger]

My question is simply how long could the 62 Finnish Hornets stand up to Russian air power ? In short, is the expendure worth it, or could the Euros be better spent on other anti-Russian weapons ?

If you phrase the issue from the standpoint of systems analysis, I think you'll get a better focus. Let me suggest: How much would it cost the Russians to overwhelm the Finnish Hornets? Is there any other weapon system that could force a higher cost to the Russians for the same expenditure? Would the Russians be willing to make that expenditure of men and material (aircraft)?

During the Winter War, the Finns under Mannerheim were outnumbered 30 to 1 in aircraft and fought the Soviets to a stand still. Could they enforce the same ratio today? Given the differences in aerial combat between then and now, I don't think it reasonable to think the Russians would need over 1800 aircraft to achieve air superiority. On the other hand, even forcing a 10 to one ratio is pretty high.

At any rate, I suggest you address the issue along the lines I suggested, and decide accordingly.

[jmm99]

I realize that, however phrased, the question and answer is an "it depends". And, both of your responses address the concepts I was looking at - and better suggest the questions that should be asked.

I guess another related question is whether there has been any open-source "war gaming" re: "Russia attacks Finland". I haven't seen any, but probably do not know where to look.

The Winter-Continuation Wars were so long ago that they are not especially good precedents for the present. And, the Finns that would fight a present war are two or three generations removed from the warriors of that struggle - and have lived in a very peaceful environment.

BTW: While the Winter War ended in more or less of a stalemate, its end presaged the end of the Continuation War where Finland was within a few months of military collapse. See here (starting at post #7, with discussion in #8 - the rest is post-war politics),

http://finlander.eget.net/showthread...3900#post23900

[Old Eagle]

Positing an all-out war between Finland and Russia as the primary Hornet scenario is obviously not the driving factor behind the various hornet procurements. Truth in lending -- I was an SAO in Helsinki administering the original deal, so I have a slight bias. The Finns take their sovereignty very seriously and want to be able to deal with multiple contingencies. Adding an air-to-mud capability is an interesting development.

[Stan]

Positing an all-out war between Finland and Russia as the primary Hornet scenario is obviously not the driving factor behind the various hornet procurements. Truth in lending -- I was an SAO in Helsinki administering the original deal, so I have a slight bias. The Finns take their sovereignty very seriously and want to be able to deal with multiple contingencies. Adding an air-to-mud capability is an interesting development.

I was wondering when you would add your 2 cents to this . Not to be cynical herein (God forbid), but I think the majority of the Finnish population is more concerned about the rising cost of alcohol in Estonia than Russian air superiority

[jmm99]

about some assertions made in the above two posts. Too late at nite to do it now.

I would agree with Stan if he was dealing with the rising cost of alcohol in Finland - a definite cause of concern to some (many ?) of my cousins.

Kiitos paljon - hyvää iltaa.

[Entropy]

All I know about alcohol and Finland is that one should consider carefully going anywhere with a Finn where drinking might be involved. I would relate the details of a particular night in London, but unfortunately, i can't remember them.

[1st Lieutenant]

its not the issue of number Russian Sukhois or Migs contra to Finnish Hornets and the number of the planes itself...it will do with the capability of the pilots the planes will last 2 weeks will the pilots last that far..

Will Finland again be the only country in n<orthern Europe to fight against russians, I doubt. What would be interest of Russia just to attack Finland, it will not give them any geopolitical ormilitary advantage.

Shall it 1 day happen anyhow we are happy to face them, again. Like highly respected ex WWII General Ehnrooth said..'Finnish defence is based on a methodof 1 man with a rifle under each tree..and we have loads of trees'

Gallup Intrenational study do show which country is most anti-Soviet...sorry anti-Russian...so no point of any US 'socialist' coming here with no better knowledge to comment we are leftisist..anti-Russïan is here deeper than in UK, Germany and in Uncle Sam...Kill!

[jmm99]

Please introduce yourself - either in this thread in your next post, or here - or both.

After doing that, you can ....

from 1LT
... anti-Russïan is here deeper than in UK, Germany and in Uncle Sam...Kill!

tell us what you really think about Novgorodians.[*]

Seriously, perhaps, more comment, with reasons, on:

... it will do with the capability of the pilots the planes will last 2 weeks will the pilots last that far...

-------------------------
Besides Adolf Ehrnrooth,

We also could heed this advice in spring 1944 from Juho Paasikivi: "We will shoot from behind every stone and tree, we will go on shooting for 50 years. We are not Czechs. We are not Dutchmen. We will fight tooth and nail behind every rock and over the ice of every lake. I will not fight long. I am old, but others will fight."

When you are my age, you realize the truth in "not fight long".

Final thought (before the footnote), I noticed this ...

... so no point of any US 'socialist' coming here with no better knowledge to comment we are leftisist ...

and suggest you go very light on political commentary (this is a military, not a political, forum).

Kiitos paljon.

Mikko

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[*] Matti Kurki - sankari Vesilahden Sakoisista. OK - here is a brief English Wiki on Matti Kurki, for the benefit of non-Finns.

Matti Kurki jo Pohto !
Kuolema !

The more serious logistics question is where will all those dead Russians be buried ?