Defending Scandanavia (catch all)

[jmm99]

about some assertions made in the above two posts. Too late at nite to do it now.

I would agree with Stan if he was dealing with the rising cost of alcohol in Finland - a definite cause of concern to some (many ?) of my cousins.

Kiitos paljon - hyvää iltaa.

[Entropy]

All I know about alcohol and Finland is that one should consider carefully going anywhere with a Finn where drinking might be involved. I would relate the details of a particular night in London, but unfortunately, i can't remember them.

[120mm]

I defended the woman I would later marry, from being accosted by drunken Finns in Leningrad in 1985.

I'm a big fan of Finns of the non-drunken lecherous variety, and have a few friends in Finland, to include a woman who once almost kept the above-marriage from happening.

I'm a big fan of Light Attack systems with rough field capabilities for small countries. The Finnish success in the Winter War was with marginally inferior aircraft, taking off from airfields that couldn't be reliably interdicted due to their primitive nature.

F/A-18s are cool, though.

[davidbfpo]

Given the history involved and the current strategic situation am I the only one who thinks this proposed upgrade has little to do with defending Finland in the unpredictable future?

What possible situation today would justify a Russian action against Finland? I recall Finland was a major economic partner of Russia.

Is the Finnish upgrade not just a bureaucratic / military proposal for a technological upgrade as the airframes get older?

davidbfpo

[Ken White]

(some of them at any rate) are interested in contributing to 'out of area' missions. That's the same reason Sweden is upgrading their Gripens to be NATO compatible.

[reed11b]

I was just wondering why the JAS 39 was not more popular in countries like Finland where there small size and short take off would seem to be ideal.
Reed

[jmm99]

These are good questions.

from davidbfpo
What possible situation today would justify a Russian action against Finland?

Is the Finnish upgrade not just a bureaucratic / military proposal for a technological upgrade as the airframes get older?

There seems little question that Finnish-Russian relations have cooled, but there is certainly a divergence in how much. No one envisions a war tommorow; but, as was noted by David, we have "the unpredictable future".

Here are some sample opinions, the first from a broad survey of Finland's diplomats, the second from Finland's Foreign Minister and the third from Sweden's Foreign Minister.

Diplomatic confessions
By Kari Huhta and Tanja Vasama
HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
7.10.2008 - THIS WEEK FEATURE ARTICLE

"I will not crouch into hushing things up, or slip into liturgy", one ambassador wrote at the beginning of his two pages of text - quoting the words of Minister for Foreign Affairs Alexander Stubb (Nat. Coalition Party).

Then the ambassador made a number of observations about Finland’s eastern neighbour.

"Russia can never earn the trust of its neighbours unless it produces an honest accounting of its past."

The ambassador continued that Russia does not pay heed to rules that had been agreed upon jointly with others. It yearns for the 19th century, while the EU is living in the 21st. It is building a fence and is protecting its security on both sides of that fence. When China started its Summer Olympics on August the 8th, Russia attacked Georgia.

"China invited the world for a visit, and Russia showed the world its middle finger." ....

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Dip.../1135240031064

HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
7.10.2008

Finnish-Russian relations under strain during OSCE Chairmanship
Cancelled military visits, complaints of Finnish decisions

The colder winds that have been blowing in relations between Russia and the West also extend to relations between Finland and Russia.

Russia has cancelled at least two visits by military officers since August, and the Russians have criticised Finnish actions during Finland’s turn holding the Chairmanship of the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe. .....

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Fin.../1135240029652

HELSINGIN SANOMAT
INTERNATIONAL EDITION - FOREIGN
22.9.2008

Swedish Foreign Minister sees Russia moving away from European values
Carl Bildt sees reflections of 19th century attitudes in today’s Russia

“It takes two to tango. If Russia doesn’t want to dance, then the tango will be a bit awkward.”

This is how Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt describes relations between the European Union and Russia, which have been put to a major test by the crisis in the Caucasus.

Bildt, who took part in a European security seminar in Helsinki on Friday, told Helsingin Sanomat that the EU must reassess its policy toward Russia. While he expects cooperation to continue on a wide front, the changing winds affecting the European security environment are blowing specifically from Moscow. ....

http://www.hs.fi/english/article/Swe.../1135239631101

As to the second question, you will have to draw your own conclusions. The following references may help.

------------------------------
Overall Defense Policies

Finnish Security and Defence Policy 2004
Government report 6/2004 ["White Paper"]

http://www.defmin.fi/files/311/2574_...er_2004_1_.pdf

(pp.109-110)
5.2.3 The services
The Army
The Army must be able to defend Finland’s entire territory, protect vital targets, provide executive assistance to other authorities, and prevent and repel military attacks supported by the other services. Regional forces are used for surveillance of land areas, to protect the society’s vital infrastructure and to hold key areas. Invaders will be defeated by using operational forces that are deployable nationwide, supported by long-range fire. ..... Border troops will especially be used for reconnaissance, surveillance, special operations and counter-special force operations.

One might ask: And what invaders are to be expected - Karelian wolves attacking Saami reindeer herds ?

(p.111)
From 2009 onwards, development of the Army will concentrate on ground-based air defence and on regional forces. Ground-based air defence in the capital region will be increased in efficiency. Regional forces’ capacity for rapid action to protect military targets, the capacity to provide executive assistance to other authorities, and the capacity to protect society’s vital functions will be improved. The capacity of the troops in the capital region to safeguard operating conditions for the national leadership and to safeguard vital functions of the society will be further upgraded.

(p.112)
The Navy
....
Ground-based air defence of naval bases and coastal troops will be developed as part of the national ground-based air defence development programme.

One might ask: "ground-based air defence" against whom - Flying Karelian wolves, perhaps ?

(p.114)
The Air Force
....
During the planning period special attention will be given to raising the performance of fighter defence and to the air defence command and control system. The performance of the Hornet fleet will be increased by mid-life updating, thus improving the system’s situational awareness, interception capacity and international interoperability. Performance of the Hornet fleet will also be enhanced with the gradual procurement of a long-range precision guided weapon system, permitting air-to-ground operations.
....
.... The Air Force’s ground-based air defence capability will be improved as part of the national ground-based air defence, focusing on the capacity to protect the most important bases.

The bottom line is that someone is very much concerned with someone else having air superiority.

The focus in 2004 for projected procurements in the future is graphed at p.115. The primary components are (approximately):

C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance & recon) - 25%
Mobility, firepower & regional troops - 17½ %
Ground-based air defense in the capital region - 17½%
Air Force (primarily Mid-life Update II for F-18s) - 20%

The largest part of the remaining 20% is Navy (mine counter-measires).

In terms of national effort, the following is instructive:

(p.124)
5.2.8 Developing voluntary defence
People’s interest in voluntary activities is a resource that promotes everyday security, preparedness for new threats and military defence readiness. The basic premise for this activity must be the needs of the society as well as the needs of the Defence Forces and voluntary organizations. Voluntary defence activities supporting military defence will be reorganized to facilitate collaboration between authorities at all levels. For this purpose, local defence troops will be formed, which will belong to the Defence Forces’ wartime forces. The Government will consider the necessity of a separate act on voluntary defence.

The concept of a national defense is contained in a number of other documents (as well as expressed in the White Paper).

The overall plan meets not only an invasion by Nation X, but also other contingencies (terrorists, WMD attacks, epidemics, etc.). So, it is very correct to say that Finland's security policies include many contingencies - most are much less malignant than an invasion.

But, it is difficult for me to see how F-18s fit into those contingencies (terrorists, WMD attacks, epidemics, etc.). I do see how they would meet the invasion problem in part.