Obama’s Pentagon-in-Waiting

[SWJED]

Obama’s Pentagon-in-Waiting - Spencer Akerman, Washington Independent

The rumor started to spread last week. if Sen. Barack Obama won the presidential election, Michele Flournoy would resign from the Center for a New American Security Thursday following the election. Friday at the latest.

It’s not difficult to understand why the talk circulated. Flournoy boasts an enviable resume. A veteran of the Clinton Pentagon, she worked on counter-proliferation issues before playing a large role in shaping the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review, an overview of defense strategy and its implementation.

After leaving government service, Flournoy took a high-profile job at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a prominent Washington policy organization, before co-founding the Center for a New American Security, an increasingly influential defense think tank, in 2007.

It’s not just Flournoy. CNAS, as it’s known, is widely considered a likely feeder for the Obama Pentagon, though the organization disputes this — preferring to bill itself as nonpartisan. What CNAS does not dispute is that, over the course of the past two years — overnight, in Washington terms — it has emerged as an energetic center for studying contemporary defense issues, including Iraq, counterinsurgency and the national-security effects of climate change...

[reed11b]

How does the counsil feel about this organization? I really do not know eneogh to have an opinion, but the names that I did recognize did not make me think "oh no, not that blowhard" like most of the advisors from early in the Bush administration did. Some of Clinton's "advisors" also had the same effect for me. Any word on if Obama is going to use Clark in some capacity, speaking of Clinton era blowhards?
Reed

[Cavguy]

How does the counsil feel about this organization? I really do not know eneogh to have an opinion, but the names that I did recognize did not make me think "oh no, not that blowhard" like most of the advisors from early in the Bush administration did. Some of Clinton's "advisors" also had the same effect for me. Any word on if Obama is going to use Clark in some capacity, speaking of Clinton era blowhards?
Reed

Clark was solidly in the Clinton camp during the primary, and said nasty things about Obama. I doubt we'll see him get appointed.

[John T. Fishel]

of the CNAS folk. John Nagl is a friend; he is "wicked smart." He is also very knowledgeable about COIN and was a principal author of 3-24. If he were to become ASD-SO/LIC (as the article speculates) it would enhance the profile of LIC (SASO/MOOTW/Small Wars and the 100 other names). But, I'm not sure that John has the full confidence of the sOF community - it is something he would have to earn.

The other person I know is Michelle Flournoy. I met her when she was Principal DASD for Strategy (and Sarah Sewell, now at Harvard, was DASD for PKO) and I was doing a couple of research papers under contract for her office. She was extremely impressive. I saw her again at a conference in DC when she was working at CSIS and was again impressed. I think she would make a superb SECDEF (if the new Admin couldn't work something out with Gates) - more likely would be USD-Policy where she would be outstanding.

While I don't know Nate Fick, his book, ONE BULLET AWAY, is excellent and Nagl is quite high on him.

To get a better feel for all these people, look at the CNAS website and read some of their papers.

Hope this is useful.

Cheers

JohnT

[tequila]

Some more wild speculation from around the Web:

Frank Riccardione as new U.S. ambassador to Iraq?

Possible CIA heads: Jane Harman, Tony Lake, Tim Roemer, John Brennan?

James Steinberg for National Security Advisor? Other names in the mix for prominent national security and diplomatic positions: Susan Rice, former USMC commandant James L. Jones, Richard Lugar, John Kerry, Richard Danzig (most likely new SecDef), Ashton Carter.

[Tom Odom]

Some more wild speculation from around the Web:

Frank Riccardione as new U.S. ambassador to Iraq?

Possible CIA heads: Jane Harman, Tony Lake, Tim Roemer, John Brennan?

James Steinberg for National Security Advisor? Other names in the mix for prominent national security and diplomatic positions: Susan Rice, former USMC commandant James L. Jones, Richard Lugar, John Kerry, Richard Danzig (most likely new SecDef), Ashton Carter.

I know Susan and as she has already been Assistant Sec State for Africa, I would guess she is in the running for Sec State or US Ambassador to the UN. She was excellebt when I worked with her; she was to me one of the few really bright spots in the Clinton foreign policy arena.

We will see.

Tom

[Ken White]

of the CNAS folk. John Nagl is a friend; he is "wicked smart." He is also very knowledgeable about COIN and was a principal author of 3-24. If he were to become ASD-SO/LIC (as the article speculates) it would enhance the profile of LIC (SASO/MOOTW/Small Wars and the 100 other names).But, I'm not sure that John has the full confidence of the sOF community - it is something he would have to earn. (emphasis added /kw)

I think there's more to it than them having confidence in him. While we all decry parochiality, in the end most of us tend to be a least a little so inclined -- some are, through sad experience, a great deal inclined that way...

While smarts count, experience and a degree of anointation (< new word...) are uh, highly desirable if not borderline mandatory. There. Now we've both understated.

[Entropy]

Here are some more potentials for intelligence and national security positions.

[jonSlack]

of the CNAS folk. John Nagl is a friend; he is "wicked smart." He is also very knowledgeable about COIN and was a principal author of 3-24. If he were to become ASD-SO/LIC (as the article speculates) it would enhance the profile of LIC (SASO/MOOTW/Small Wars and the 100 other names). But, I'm not sure that John has the full confidence of the sOF community - it is something he would have to earn.

Any possibility of John Nagl becoming Secretary of the Army?

For DASD SO/LIC, does Michael Vickers need to be replaced? Or, are there any calls for him to stay on for at least the beginning of the new administration?

[bourbon]

For DASD SO/LIC, does Michael Vickers need to be replaced? Or, are there any calls for him to stay on for at least the beginning of the new administration?

Hi jonSlack,
From the article I posted it seems that it's hard to find a replacement for Michael Vickers, and he would probably be asked to stick around for awhile.

The report states that the post of Michael Vickers, assistant secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict, seems "conspicuously designed" to fit Vickers' background. "It is unlikely another person would have a professional background as well suited to this position as the incumbent," the report notes. "As a result, it is not clear that in subsequent administrations it will be possible to fill this position with an individual who can succeed across the very broad span of control in this organization for which this OASD is responsible," CSIS writes.

[Umar Al-Mokhtār]

key are the meat-and-potatos ASD/DASD positions. I'll be interested to see who becomes ASD(SO/LIC-IC) should Mike Vickers leave and DASD(SOC) should Gunner Sepp also depart and who will be tapped to fill in the remaining three ASD slots in that shop.

Which also begs the question, there's a DASD(SOC) but no DASD(COIN) or a DASD(LIC). I may just point that out and suggest one be created...