I think where the real problem comes in is with a set of popular perceptions as to which group, the "loyalists" or the "rebels" has the greater likelihood of solving a root problem. One (obvious) measure is whether or not the rebels win or loose militarily, but there is also another one in in general belief in problem solving ability, capacity and willingness....The ideological side of a COIN fight is crucial to establishing the legitimacy of the differing sides proposed "solutions" and, in some cases, their individual definitions of what are the "root problems".
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