US Troops Leaving Iraqi Cities

[jmm99]

(from AP article)

The U.S. is on track to complete its shift out of all Iraqi cities by June 2009. That is one of the milestones in a political-military campaign plan devised in 2007 by Gen. David Petraeus, when he was the top U.S. commander in Iraq, and his political partner in Baghdad, Ambassador Ryan Crocker. The goal also is in a preliminary security pact with the Iraqi government on the future U.S. military presence.

The timeline here is directly on target with the timeline stated in the leaked draft SOFA (sorta on hold in the adjacent thread). This seems the best confirmation I've seen yet that the SOFA is as reported - a withdrawal agreement (the latest AP story cited in the SOFA thread says that is exactly what it is entitled).

Now, let us all be clear about this combo (military shift of forces and "SOFA"). It is totally an Executive Branch effort of the Bush Administration - Congress has not been consulted in any meaningful way. So, let us not begin writing revisionist history before there is even ink on the agreement.

Note: The president has power to enter into a SOFA, without Congress (that type of agreement is a presidential executive agreement; as opposed to a presidentiial-congressional executive agreement); but only as to matters which are solely within the President's powers as CinC.

Some non-loopy I Law and Con Law types have been kicking this around on the Net. The "SOFA" does raise some valid constitutional issues (the "quote" below is not a direct quote, but my summary of points made in a number of blogs and articles):

1. Iraqi jurisdiction over US troops and contractors. Contrary to the usual SOFA & adverse to troops and contractors. Challenge based on Congress' Regulate the Armed Forces Clause (the basis for the UCMJ).

2. Mutual security provisions. Depends on the provisions' exact language - how automatic is the trigger requiring US to employ armed force in support of Iraq - may be completely adverse to what the best interests of the US are in the future. Challenge based on Congress' War Powers Clause (another issue is whether this is within AUMF).

3. Turnover of US bases & future aid to Iraq. Again depends on provisions' exact language. Challenge based on Congress' Power Over Possessions Clause and Appropriations Clause.

IMO, these are valid issues.

Assuming arguendo that the leaked versions are accurate, the provisions dealing with continued US operations in Iraq (Iraqi approvals, joint US-Iraqi command, etc.) may be nuts from a military standpoint.

My broken crystal ball gave a fleeting vision of we're moving out and Astan here we come - damn thing is broken, so no reliance there.

Here (SWC), let's try not to inflame this as was done after the withdrawal from Vietnam - we don't need that.

[jmm99]

Top Iraq official upbeat over US, British pull-out pacts
Denis Hiault – Fri Nov 14, 1:58 pm ET

BAGHDAD (AFP) – Iraq is likely to approve a military pact with a timetable for the withdrawal of all US troops by 2011 and British troops will leave by the end of next year, Iraq's national security adviser said Friday.

Muwafaq al-Rubaie told AFP in an interview that the controversial Iraq-US security pact could be passed by Iraq's cabinet as early as this weekend.

"I honestly believe we have reached now a very good text... And this text will secure the complete, full, irrevocable sovereignty of Iraq," said Rubaie, who is also Baghdad's chief negotiator on the security pact.

"I believe, I hope, that the council of ministers will pass the new text Sunday and (then) it will be passed on to the parliament."
....
The draft agreement calls for US troops to pull out of Iraqi cities by June 2009 and from the entire country by the end of 2011.
.....
Rubaie meanwhile said he expected all British troops would be gone by 2010.

"By the end of next year there will be no British troops in Iraq. By the end of 2009," Rubaie said, adding that negotiations between London and Baghdad on the pull-out had begun two weeks ago.

"It will be a much shorter agreement with the UK... It's much shorter and much simpler," Rubaie said, adding that there would be a "dramatic" reduction of British troops by the middle of 2009......

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081114...ritainmilitary

Iraq: Negotiators agree on US security pact draft
Aide to Iraqi PM says Iraq, US negotiators agree on draft of pact; 10 killed in bombing
QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA
AP News
Nov 15, 2008 09:32 EST

U.S. and Iraqi negotiators have agreed on a draft of a security pact that would allow American troops to stay in Iraq for three more years after their U.N. mandate expires Dec. 31, a senior aide to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Saturday.

The aide said the draft could be put to a Cabinet vote in an emergency meeting Sunday or Monday. Transport Minister Amir Abdul-Jabbar said he had been notified by the Cabinet secretariat that a Cabinet meeting was scheduled for Sunday to vote on the agreement. If adopted by the Cabinet, it would then require parliamentary approval. ....
....
The final step in the process of adopting the agreement would be the ratification of the parliamentary vote by President Jalal Talabani, a Sunni Kurd, and his two vice presidents — Adil Abdul-Mahdi, a Shiite, and Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni Arab.

The three met Saturday to review the final version of the agreement, according to Talabani's office.

The United States last week responded to Iraqi demands for changes in the text, which U.S. officials described as final and said it was up to the Iraqis to push the process further.

Al-Hashemi, the Sunni vice president, said Saturday that the United States made "additional modifications" to the agreement in response to a request by al-Maliki, according to Talabani's office. .....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=454926

Not to be too ethno-centric, but the Iraqis are more adept at marketplace haggling. I suppose the next round of "modifications" will be to satisfy Iraq's parliament before it acts; and another round before Talabani & the 2 VPs approve it.

Think Ken warned about the Mid-Eastern approach to negotiating somewhere here in the last couple of months.

[jmm99]

Iraq Head, Top Cleric Back 2011 Exit by U.S.
Agreement Gives Pact Better Odds of Passing
By Mary Beth Sheridan
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 16, 2008; A01

BAGHDAD, Nov. 15 -- Iraq's prime minister and its most influential Shiite cleric have decided to support a security agreement that would allow U.S. troops to remain in the country until the end of 2011, sharply increasing its chances of passage in the Iraqi parliament, officials said Saturday.
.....
A delegation of Shiite lawmakers and government officials met Saturday with Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani to review the latest changes to the agreement, and the cleric "gave the Iraqi side the green light to sign it," according to an official in Sistani's office who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Sistani's views carry great weight among members of the Shiite parties that dominate Iraq's government.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has made clear his own support for the agreement and has received assurances from nearly all the parties in the cabinet that they would back it, said an adviser, Sami al-Askari.
....
The deputy parliament speaker, Khalid al-Attiya, said after leading a delegation to the city of Najaf to visit Sistani that "the Americans have responded positively on two important amendments. The first one is the Americans should withdraw from cities and suburbs on June 30, 2009, and the second one is that Americans should leave Iraq in 2011."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...500679_pf.html

[jmm99]

New York Times
Iraqi Cabinet Approves Security Pact With U.S.
By CAMPBELL ROBERTSON
Published: November 16, 2008

BAGHDAD — The Iraqi cabinet voted overwhelmingly Sunday to approve the security agreement that sets the conditions for the Americans' continued presence in Iraq from Jan. 1 until the end of 2011.

All but one of the 28 cabinet ministers who attended the two-and-a-half-hour session voted for the agreement and sent it to Parliament for consideration.....
....
The decision of the 37-member cabinet, essentially a microcosm of the Parliament, is expected to be a good indicator of whether the agreement will pass. The assembly has not yet announced the date of its vote, but it is scheduled to go into recess on Nov. 24.

The draft approved Sunday requires coalition forces to withdraw from Iraqi cities and towns by the summer of 2009 and from the country by the end of 2011. ....

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/17/wo...in&oref=slogin

[jmm99]

Interesting.

Dabbagh: Iraq gov't endorsed two pacts
Sun, 16 Nov 2008 18:32:55 GMT

The Iraqi government says the cabinet has approved two agreements with the United States not just one pact as many people presume.

Government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh announced on Sunday that the Iraqi ministers, in fact endorsed two agreements with Washington, the Voices of Iraq reported on Sunday.

According to the Iraqi official, one agreement would be related to the withdrawal of US troops from the country and the other one would determine the framework for political, economic and legal cooperation between the two sides.

"The Iraqi cabinet also endorsed the draft agreement between the two countries which would lay the foundation stone for [the two sides'] cooperation and friendship in the fields of politics, diplomacy, culture, health, environmental issues and economy as well as technology, telecommunications and legal issues," he added. ......

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail.aspx?id...onid=351020201

[jmm99]

Didn't really think that this thing (or things, if there are two agreements) would go through. But, looks like reality may be something akin to what was being said by unnamed sources a couple of weeks ago.

Iraqi parliament debates security pact
Iraqi parliament gears up for vote on US security pact; Iranian official praises Iraqi Cabinet
QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA
AP News
Nov 17, 2008 11:39 EST

Iraqi lawmakers Monday began debate over a pact with the United States that will allow U.S. forces to remain for three more years, while an Iranian official close to that country's leadership praised the Iraqi Cabinet for approving the deal.

The comments from Iran's judiciary chief marked the first time that the deal has met with clear-cut approval in neighboring Iran. Meanwhile, Syria, target of a deadly cross-border raid by U.S. forces in recent weeks, criticized the deal as virtual surrender to America.

More than two-thirds of the 275-seat legislature attended Monday's session, raising confidence that parliament will be able to muster a quorum for the Nov. 24 vote. The session ended after the agreement's text was read to lawmakers, the first step to adopt legislation.

Lawmakers are expected to meet again on Tuesday. ...
.....
Senior al-Maliki aides said the deal's chances also were helped by Washington's favorable response to two changes that he requested last week.

One removed ambiguous language that could have allowed U.S. forces not to adhere to a June 30 deadline for their withdrawal from cities to outlying bases, and another that prohibited raiding Iraqi homes during routine security sweeps without a court order. ....

http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=456693

and, another piece in the puzzle falling into place:

Iran's judiciary chief lauds US-Iraqi pact
By ALI AKBAR DAREINI
Associated Press
2008-11-17 09:23 PM

A top Iranian official on Monday lauded the U.S-Iraqi security deal for the first time, saying the Iraqi government acted "very well" in approving the deal that allows American troops to stay in Iraq for three more years.

The remark by Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi was the first sign of approval from Iran of the controversial deal that has long been lambasted by Tehran, where extremists within the hardline camp oppose it and many claim it would turn Iraq into a U.S. colony....
.....
The Web site of Iran's state television on Monday quoted Shahroudi as saying he hoped the U.S. will withdraw troops from Iraq within the time specified in the deal.

"The Iraqi government has done very well regarding this (security pact)," Shahroudi said. "We hope the outcome of (the deal) will be in favor of Islam and Iraqi sovereignty."

Shahroudi is very close to Iran's top leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his comments reflect thinking of conservatives within the ruling system, but not all hard-liners or President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. ....

http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_....php?id=790754

Ahmadinejad is not relevant here.

[jmm99]

This event may be coincidental; but it may be another little piece in the puzzle.

From The Times
November 19, 2008
Britain re-establishes high-level intelligence links with Syria
Richard Beeston, Catherine Philp and Oliver August

Britain re-established high-level intelligence links with the Syrian authorities as David Miliband made his landmark visit to Damascus yesterday, according to senior Syrian officials.

The move, first raised earlier this year at a meeting in New York between the Foreign Secretary and his Syrian counterpart, Walid Moualem, was a key objective of the Syrian visit. The newly revived intelligence relationship could be hugely beneficial to Britain. Syria is known to have one of the best intelligence-gathering systems in the Middle East, in particular in tracking the movements of Islamic extremists into Iraq and around the region. .....

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle5181164.ece