Of Mice and Men: Gangs, Narco-Terrorism, and the USA

[oblong]

"He saw what he perceived as a threat and thought he was shot, and based on that both officers discharged their firearms," said Dino Bardoni, commander of investigations.

This may be a dumb question. But how does someone who wasn't shot come to think he was shot? I can understand how someone might mistakenly think he was shot at, but shot?

[Ken White]

Got a Cop son who teaches in-service training and use of force. I sent him the link and I'll see what he says. But my reaction was not good. On either opening fire or marksmanship grounds.

Plus , as the ex-paratrooper kid says, "suppressive fire is NOT a police technique..."

[jmm99]

AUG. 31: At 11:20 p.m., Iraq war veteran Philip Michael Dorado, 21, of Castroville, is fatally shot by Salinas Police Officer Louis Plunkett outside a Wells Fargo bank in north Salinas. Police said Dorado had pulled a loaded AK-47 out of his waistband. The investigation is ongoing.

from the Salinas Californian article.

[slapout9]

What was the perceived threat? Dosen't say in the article

[Locke21]

Sad to hear its gotten that bad in Salinas/Monterey.

However, the drug production and exports are still escalating- the primary focus of the original Plan Colombia is a failure.

The situation is simply too complex to point to one factor and claim success or failure as many who cite the CRS report on "hectares of coca planted" as an ironclad indicator that Plan Colombia and by extension, "the war on drugs" have failed.

Roughly the same (estimated) amount of cocaine was shipped out of South America for 2007 as for 2006 (http://www.whitehousedrugpolicy.gov/...muggling07.pdf) - but that includes significant increases in growth outside Colombia, record seizures, and more and more cocaine headed to easier-to-enter markets in Europe; the weak dollar had a vote too. The amount of coca growing may be on the rise, but that doesn't necessarily translate to an increase in the amount of product. If it did - a 20% increase in growth should translate to ~20% increase in product; but that isn't happening. A crucial fact here is the reference to shortages in US cities. I'll take cocaine shortages in the US as a good start for our investment.

In another article decrying the failure of the "War on Drugs" (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123439889394275215.html) we see reflections of ordinary market forces facing the drug cartels: an increase in violence as they fight to compete for a reduced commodity. Clearly there is enough to continue to fight over though. There has been drug violence in Mexico for a long time, but not like the violence we've seen in Mexico since 2007.

U.S. law-enforcement officials -- as well as some of their counterparts in Mexico -- say the explosion in violence indicates progress in the war on drugs as organizations under pressure are clashing.

"If the drug effort were failing there would be no violence," a senior U.S. official said Wednesday. There is violence "because these guys are flailing. We're taking these guys out. The worst thing you could do is stop now."

Over this same period, President Uribe's "democratic security plan," aided by Plan Colombia, demobilized huge numbers of paramilitary drug gangs (many of whose leaders were extradited to the US), and started putting the spurs into the FARC. As you stated - violence in all forms has been reduced drastically. Considering the paltry chump change of Plan Colombia compared to Iraq or even Afghanistan I'd say we're lucky to see any results, let alone the near-total turnaround of the Colombian state.

Narcotics and narco-terrorism, like terrorism, take time and a high level of engagement to address - regardless of the scale, municipal or global. Let this one stay in the cooker a bit longer to see what comes out.

In the context of gangs in the US though, I have two concerns about Mexico:
- how much worse will the gang problem get if/when will the forced migrations from Mexico begin as violence scales upward/continues, and the saturation level of the narco hero-worshiping kids increases in the border states?

Interesting thread