Quote Originally Posted by William F. Owen View Post
That's just not true. It's bad history. Maybe there is something I am not getting here.
a.) According to Kilcullen, only about 4% of the Afghan people support the Taliban. Is their any evidence that the Taliban do enjoy popular support? If there is no popular support, then what are the root causes?
b.) FACT: Not all insurgencies require popular support! History is quite clear on this. Insurgencies are military forces and popularity is just a plus. I can think of about 5 major insurgencies that treated the population pretty badly and still flourished.
c.) The Taliban does not need popular support to win. They just have to be there when NATO's gives up. Regardless of popular support, if NATO goes, without inflicting military defeat on the Taliban, the Taliban(s) will take over unless the Afghan Govt. can resist them militarily - because they don't need popular support to win.
I'm with Wilf here. I remember getting into a prolonged argument with a spook about why the Taleban had a viable stake in the future of their country, and hence the reason for reconciliation. Horses***. The Taleban receive support at the end of a gun, and from local leaders who are supporting the dominant local power with whom they best personally survive or thrive. Moreover, they're a largely Pakistani/ISI artificial constuct. No 'home grown' noble tribal insurgency here, thought they do get lots of Tier 3 pushtun badmashes for the reasons above. The reason for reconciliation is to give them a political option to behave like adults when they tire of us slaughtering them...I mean they embrace a political solution...like PIRA/Sinn Fein.

And ultimately unfair to criticise ISAF when the NAC/EU/International Community remain unable to forge a coherent line on the Afghan issue. We are but the pawns of politicians...