Mumbai Attacks and their impact

[davidbfpo]

That comment followed reading the Zenpundit and linked articles regarding the lack of US press coverage and the US official stance on the Chicago trial is puzzling. My apologies for being imprecise. More another time.

[Ray]

I think the US has SWAT teams.

They could take on where the police left in case of a Mumbai style attack.

[carl]

Omar:

My cynical take is the CIA is a bureaucracy, a modern computer compiled metric measure of success driven bureaucracy. As such they need numbers. The ISI can give them numbers. If that results in some numbers of dead Indians, well that's ok as long as the ISI frowns and promises to investigate the doings of "rogue" agents. That is the way it's been, I think. Maybe 5-1-11 is an indication of a change.

Given all that has happened since Mumbai, the big question is when the next Mumbai happens in India, will the Indians listen to us and restrain themselves?

[omarali50]

well, they better restrain themselves because they are in no position to try a seal team 6 and "cold start" would destroy both countries. They will have to hope NATO can help them apply sanctions, and I am sure they have their own ways to set off bombs in public places. Thats about it.

[carl]

This is just idle wondering but what if they did something like a blockade or partial blockade of only the port of Karachi to be lifted when the sponsors were handed over? That would apply very great pressure without actually blowing too many things up. Probably just an announcement of one to be enforced by mining or submarines would stop all merchantmen from coming in. The danger of escalation would still be great but maybe less than other options. All this would be obviated of course if the GHQ would just knock it off.

[Ray]

Omar:

My cynical take is the CIA is a bureaucracy, a modern computer compiled metric measure of success driven bureaucracy. As such they need numbers. The ISI can give them numbers. If that results in some numbers of dead Indians, well that's ok as long as the ISI frowns and promises to investigate the doings of "rogue" agents. That is the way it's been, I think. Maybe 5-1-11 is an indication of a change.

Given all that has happened since Mumbai, the big question is when the next Mumbai happens in India, will the Indians listen to us and restrain themselves?

well, they better restrain themselves because they are in no position to try a seal team 6 and "cold start" would destroy both countries. They will have to hope NATO can help them apply sanctions, and I am sure they have their own ways to set off bombs in public places. Thats about it.

If a second Mumbai happens, the the Govt of India will have no options. It will have to take a plunge. The Indian public will not tolerate anything otherwise since enough of patience has been displayed.

Sanctions are passé.

Setting off bombs in public places would also not do since the terrorists are at this game, seething with rage and impotence that Pakistan is owned. The same rage has visited the common Pakistani. If one visits the websites of Pakistan, one would realise the rage at the humiliation Pakistan is experiencing rightly over the manner in which the Pak Armed Forces machismo, as believed by the common Pakistanis, has been totally shattered. They can't reconcile with the fact that three helicopters flew from Bagram without detection by their radars, knocked out Osama's lair and then exfiltrated even as the PAF F16s scrambled and were on the hunt!!

There is however a silver lining to the US raid. Pak Army and the ISI will be now careful not to overplay their cards and instead will keep the terrorist, their strategic assets, under leash. Of course, they will jigger the Kashmir terrorism a couple of notch higher, but would not allow them to have forays into hinterland India since they too know the consequences and the US will not be there to bail them out as they have always done so far.

China, in a scenario of Indo Pak confrontation, the Pak Army knows will make the usual pious noises since they (China) are more concerned about keeping up with the US and will not squander their new gained wealth in fruitless wars, the consequence of which is not known and knowing that India is no longer the pushover of 1962, having tasted the Indian wrath at Chola:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chola_incident, Natu La: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nathu_La, and Sumdorong Chu incident: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1987_Sino-Indian_skirmish.

This is just idle wondering but what if they did something like a blockade or partial blockade of only the port of Karachi to be lifted when the sponsors were handed over? That would apply very great pressure without actually blowing too many things up. Probably just an announcement of one to be enforced by mining or submarines would stop all merchantmen from coming in. The danger of escalation would still be great but maybe less than other options. All this would be obviated of course if the GHQ would just knock it off.

India will capitalise on not losing strategic surprise since that is the essence of ensuring some effect in any confrontation with Pakistan.

[davidbfpo]

CLS:

ProPublica, which has exhaustively covered the trial and investigated links between Pakistan’s ISI and militant groups, has compiled a great primer on the significance of the trial and the major players.

Link:http://www.propublica.org/article/us...or-connections