But isnt this a bit of "grabbing the wrong end of the stick"? Modern intelligence gathering generates more data than can possibly be analyzed in real time by human analysts. The biggest problem is not that the human analyst did not pick up X out of all random bits; it is that the human analysts did not have a good idea of where they should have been looking most carefully.
That does not imply a fixed set of priorities, but it does mean having a constantly updated model that captures where the biggest problems are likely to come from.
In this case, it does not seem that neither Western analysts or Indian ones were fully awake to the possibilities.
Of course there will be surprises. But at that point, should this have been such a total surprise?
I dont know. I am not an intelligence analyst. But those who are: what do you think? in retrospect, should it have been such a shock?