Mumbai Attacks and their impact

[Bill Moore]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/170301

To get a sense of the shift, consider the BJP's candidate for prime minister this time around. Lal Krishna Advani is an aging rabble-rouser who in the mid-1990s helped gather a huge Hindu mob that tore down the 16th-century Babri Mosque, leading to riots that killed more than 2,000 people (Advani was later cleared of criminal charges). He is far more radical than his predecessor, Atal Behari Vajpayee, who served as prime minister from 1998 to 2004. And Advani's heir apparent is Gujarat's chief minister, Narendra Modi—who has been denied entry to the United States for his alleged role in the 2002 riots in Gujarat that killed more than 1,000. Not long after the riots, Modi warned a crowd that Muslims were trying to erode India's Hindu majority by having many children. "We have to teach a lesson to those who are increasing the population at an alarming rate," he said.

You might assume that such ties, unless repudiated, would hurt the RSS's popularity and the BJP's electoral chances in India, which is the world's largest democracy and a secular one at that. Unfortunately, that's not how things have transpired in the past. In fact, some of the BJP's prior electoral victories followed bouts of incendiary anti-Muslim hatred and actual violence. Vajpayee was first elected prime minister following the Babri Mosque riots, for example, and the mayhem in Gujarat in 2002 helped Modi win a thumping victory in that state, even though—or because—he was blamed for delaying police action to protect Muslims. Now, by casting the government's terror investigation as an anti-Hindu conspiracy, the BJP hopes to repeat this formula today and unite the faithful. "The various wings of the [RSS]—and it's a vast organization—will rally together," says Rangarajan.

India's reaction to these attacks will very much shape their future.

[Entropy]

I guess it's over now, the last attacker is dead. 10 guys with guns, grenades and explosives killed 195 and wounded several hundred. It looks like the attackers were Pakistani and the one that was captured said the goal was to create an "Indian 9/11."

[davidbfpo]

Yes, early days and much confusion, spin, prejudice and some insight. I was impressed with these two articles by Stephen Tankel, from Kings College London War Studies: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...attacks-india4 and http://kingsofwar.wordpress.com/ first article there now.

Not heard of author before, so here is the first potted bio found: http://icsr.info/about/people/Stephen_Tankel

davidbfpo

[max161]

Here is some interesting analysis http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/world/11/...thods-ideology

Maria A. Ressa is the author of Seeds of Terror: An Eyewitness Account of Al-Qaeda’s Newest Center of Operations in Southeast Asia. She is senior vice president for news and current affairs of ABS-CBN and managing director of ANC (ABS-CBN News Channel). She was CNN’s correspondent for nearly two decades.

[JHR]

Steve Coll's comments were similar to Mr. Tankel's. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/stevecoll/

JHR

[Bill Moore]

We are really babes in the woods when it comes to understanding and effective engaging in this region. If the Isrealies have a spcecial bond/relationship that is good...but it brings it's own special challenges as well. A perception of US sponsored, Jewish CT activity is likely to have negative consequences that far exceed any immediate effect.

Great comments, we too often illustrate our lack of understanding by our desire to immediately run to the sound of gun fire and get involved so we can make things better. Historically our engagement in many countries has often failed to improve the situation for a number of reasons. A couple of them are posted above.

Partners need our support and cooperation, just as we need theirs. If they think they need our assistance they will ask for it. If we think they need our assistance, but they don't want it, then we continue to diplomatically pursue areas where we they may accept our assistance. The bull in the china shop approach hasn't worked well in the past.

[tpjkevin]

A Singaporean perspective on this issue.

Beware the fallout from Mumbai outrage

Editorial Desk
The Straits Times
Publication Date: 29-11-2008

The terror attacks in Mumbai have been strongly condemned by outraged people everywhere. The ruthless assailants sprayed bullets indiscriminately at people in the streets and trapped and wounded or killed others, including foreigners, in upscale hotels. The dead included a young Singapore lawyer, the first Singaporean victim of terrorism since Konfrontasi. Our hearts go out to her family. As Acting Prime Minister S. Jayakumar put it: 'This tragic event underscores the imperative for all of us to be constantly vigilant and the need for the international community to band together to combat this threat.' We are all in this together.

Who were the attackers? What was their objective? Some experts think Indian Muslim malcontents were involved. Identification of the perpetrators and authentication of their motives will not be easy. The scale of the assaults and the precision with which they were coordinated and executed suggest groups beyond India could have been involved. Kashmiri militants could have had a hand in this, but at least one of their groups, the Lashkar-e-Taiba, has denied responsibility........

http://www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?id=2903&sec=3

This is the second incident that Singaporeans have lost their lives to terrorism, and the fourth involving the taking of Singaporean hostages.

[SWJED]

I've placed numerous links to news and commentary concerning the Mumbai attack on the SWJ Daily Roundup

30 November Roundup

29 November Roundup

28 November Roundup

27 November Roundup

[bismark17]

From what I have read the terrorists level of confidence and individual skill with their weapons was very good. They were obviously highly trained. They also must have have done a good leaders' recon and knew the AO they were going to hit. All of their targets had significance.

I realize any innocent death is bad but my concern is if they are going to invest as much as they did in an op like this with this little return how many of them are out there in waiting to do something bigger in the bigger scheme of things? It's rather chilling. I can think of a lot other things men of this calibre could do that would produce far more casualties or impact.

Thanks for the all the links.

[Bill Moore]

With more information available now (still with loads of spectulation), I think we have enough to at least consider the implications of this type of attack on our own homeland security readiness. While there is some justification to criticize India for some its readiness shortfalls, especially the severe equipment shortfalls of its police and commando forces (no night vision devices, etc.), how ready are we (the U.S., Europe, other Asian nations) to respond to similiar attacks?

Obviously there is no pat answer as there are several variables that can impact readiness on any given day, and obviously some cities such as New York City is probably much more prepared for this type of attack than say a mid sized town elsewhere in the U.S., but it is still a question we should grapple with.

Assuming the press reports are accurate, and even if they're not, the type of operation that they outlined could easily be replicated anywhere in the world.

You have a mothership (any cargo ship), a handful of dedicated Jihadist lunatics who are very well trained and armed, a few rubber raiding crafts, and a limited support base in the target city to conduct your target reconnaissance and even guide you to your target(s) if required. There are large Muslim populations around the globe from Tokyo to London to Miami etc., and out of that population base it only takes a couple of converts to radical Islam to provide the required support.

Here's the scenario, you're the police chief, it's your town, it's 2230hrs, surprise, you now have 10-15 Jihadists running around executing a well rehearsed plan, now respond. Respond with what? Local police? Are they grossly overweight (indicates they are not dedicated) and poorly trained? The national guard? Normally not trained for this type of response, and it would take hours to mobilize them. Federal forces? How long would it take for a credable response?

You can excuse a government for reacting to a bomb attack and cleaning up the mess, then pursuing the culprits, but it is another issue all together when you're under attack in your home town, and the government can't mount an effective counter attack in a timely manner. The perception of failure jumps out, regardless of how unreasonable it may be to expect every city/town to have a capable response (think about the effect of school shootings, a much smaller scale problem). The Los Angeles police department is relatively well trained and equipped, and I think most of us remember the challenges they had responding to two bank robbers armed with high powered rifles and effective body armor. My point is that police forces, just like military forces, are trained and equipped (barely) for probable threats. The Mumbai attacks were not a probable attack until last week.

See the next post for India's initial lessons learned, and what they should mean to us.

[Bill Moore]

Police: Pakistani group behind Mumbai attacks

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27940231/

The gunman was one of 10 who paralyzed the city in an attack that killed at least 174 people and revealed the weakness of India's security apparatus. India's top law enforcement official resigned, bowing to growing criticism that the attackers appeared better trained, better coordinated and better armed than police.

As more details of the response to the attack emerged, a picture formed of woefully unprepared security forces.

"The way Mumbai police handled the situation, they were not combat ready," said Jimmy Katrak, a security consultant. "You don't need the Indian army to neutralize eight to nine people."

With no SWAT team in this city of 18 million, authorities called in the only unit in the country trained to deal with such crises. But the National Security Guards, which largely devotes its resources to protecting top officials, is based outside of New Delhi and it took the commandos nearly 10 hours to reach the scene.

Even the commandos lacked the proper equipment, including night vision goggles and thermal sensors that would have allowed them to locate the hostages and gunmen inside the buildings, Sahni said.

Singh promised to expand the commando force and set up new bases for it around the country. He called a rare meeting of leaders from the country's main political parties, hours after the resignation of Home Minister Shivraj Patil.

Sahni called for an overhaul of the nation's police force — the first line of defense against a future attack — providing better weapons, better equipment and real training.

The comments on the Commando's clearing tactics by their Israeli founder were brutal, but from what I could see correct. The Commando Commander said we executed the attack the way we like to, which unfortunately meant slow and ineffective.

India has a lot of work in front of it, and we should be willing to help to India with any assistance they may request, but we should also be looking at our own backyard and making the necessary adjustments to address similiar threats.

[J Wolfsberger]

You have a mothership (any cargo ship), a handful of dedicated Jihadist lunatics who are very well trained and armed, a few rubber raiding crafts, and a limited support base in the target city to conduct your target reconnaissance and even guide you to your target(s) if required. There are large Muslim populations around the globe from Tokyo to London to Miami etc., and out of that population base it only takes a couple of converts to radical Islam to provide the required support.

Or a terrorist group in the US obtains weapons from a drug cartel or organized gang. Their surveillance activities would be indistinguishable from daily, normal commercial activity.

Here's the scenario, you're the police chief, it's your town, it's 2230hrs, surprise, you now have 10-15 Jihadists running around executing a well rehearsed plan, now respond. Respond with what? Local police? Are they grossly overweight (indicates they are not dedicated) and poorly trained? The national guard? Normally not trained for this type of response, and it would take hours to mobilize them. Federal forces? How long would it take for a credable response?
...
The Los Angeles police department is relatively well trained and equipped, and I think most of us remember the challenges they had responding to two bank robbers armed with high powered rifles and effective body armor. My point is that police forces, just like military forces, are trained and equipped (barely) for probable threats. The Mumbai attacks were not a probable attack until last week.

The common misconception is that the police are there to protect you. In fact, most of their training is oriented toward cleaning up the mess afterward. I expect that's just as true in India as here in the US. The ordinary police in Mumbai who went up against the terrorists, matching pistols against grenades and assault weapons, deserve the highest regard for valor. The same would happen here.

In fact, I suspect it would be worse. The Indian government had the troops and processes in place (however efficient or not) to fairly quickly employ appropriately trained personnel in response.

We don't.

[Adam L]

Obviously there is no pat answer as there are several variables that can impact readiness on any given day, and obviously some cities such as New York City is probably much more prepared for this type of attack than say a mid sized town elsewhere in the U.S., but it is still a question we should grapple with.

I have really been surprised by just how much firepower the NYPD have. It seems as though every time I go down to the city they have new and more powerful weapons. There are a lot of officers carrying assault rifles these days. Also, it looks as though a lot of patrolmen are wearing heavier body armor.

Adam L

[omarali50]

http://www.3quarksdaily.com/3quarksd...-the-deal.html

[AdamG]

Pakistan's test launch last month of a new short-range ballistic missile, when added to its quickly growing arsenal of lower-power nuclear weapons, indicates the South Asian country is seriously readying to use its nuclear deterrent should war break out again with India, the Times of India reported on Sunday.

Federation of American Scientists Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen said the nuclear-capable Hatf 9 missile appears to be designed to attack an invading force of Indian soldiers.

"While that wouldn't threaten Indian survival in itself, it would of course mean crossing the nuclear threshold early in a conflict, which is one of the particular concerns of a short-range nuclear weapon," Kristensen said.

The missile's 37-mile flight range means it could not strike any major Indian population center. However, the weapon could undermine the Indian military's unconfirmed "Cold Start" doctrine, which focuses on the rapid deployment of armed forces into Pakistan for a targeted strike following a terrorist assault on the scale of the 2008 attacks on Mumbai.

http://ht.ly/1d0Mxv

[Ray]

It is Pakistan's answer to India's Cold Start.

To use a tac nuke in the face of the advance.

[motorfirebox]

A little late, and I'm not sure this hasn't been discussed elsewhere, but the recent attack in Kabul was obviously influenced by the Mumbai attacks. The Kabul incident met with significantly less success; it's hard to keep that particular sort of ball rolling without the element in surprise, and I don't imagine that at this point anyone in Kabul remains surprised for long.