Mumbai Attacks and their impact

[Bill Moore]

Some articles to expand awareness of the growing tension. Note the spin factor in most of the articles, and that they frequently quote unnamed sources, none the less those who want to throw gasoline on the flames are crawling out of the wood work.

http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=19147

PESHAWAR: Baitullah Mahsud, central head of the banned Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Monday announced full support to the army against archrival India if it makes any aggression against the country.

He said the time had come to wage a real jihad they had been waiting for. “We know very well that the visible and invisible enemies of the country have been planning to weaken this lone Islamic nuclear power. But the “mujahideen” will foil all such nefarious designs of our enemies,” said the top militant commander.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/_...ow/3880992.cms

"It's (LeT) a monster we created and now we can't get it back in the bottle," the official told the daily commenting on ISI's links with Lashkar.

The ISI had forged ties with jihadist groups throughout the 1980s when the CIA used it to support the Mujahidin against the Soviet Army in Afghanistan and when it saw an opportunity in 1989 to weaken India by creating trouble in Jammu and Kashmir the militants of the outfit were infiltrated into India, the newspaper reported.

General Asad Durrani, ISI chief from 1990-92, denied supporting LeT in his tenure, but admitted that Pakistan had an interest in supporting such groups.

"Given Kashmir's history, we can't be expected to remain uninterested,"

http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryP...r+Lahore+blast'

Intelligence agencies late on Wednesday arrested "an Indian secret agent and two others who were allegedly involved" in a bomb blast in Lahore on Wednesday morning, a media report said.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/Ne...an's%20Lie

Efforts by the Pakistani government to implicate India in the car-bomb blast in Lahore on December 24 backfired when a little-known Taliban group claimed responsibility, for which four men whom Pakistan claimed to be "Indians" were arrested, media reports said.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/c...,5582486.story

For alleged supporter of terror in Pakistan, it's business as usual
Despite officials' vow to crack down after Mumbai, Islamic charity Jamaat-ud-Dawa still operates unfettered

But militant Lashkar leaders arrested separately have not yet appeared in court. And the fact that the Muridke headquarters is still open highlights how ambivalent the government is about targeting Jamaat-ud-Dawa, which is highly popular because of its relief work.

Besides relief camps, Jamaat runs 160 schools, 50 Islamic boarding schools, 153 clinics and eight hospitals. If the government clamps down too hard, it risks a backlash. Already, there have been anti-government and pro-Jamaat protests, including by a group of Hindu women in Sindh province.

Interesting description, it is beginning to sound like the Hezbollah model.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ucated-youths/

Lashkar-e-Taiba draws well-educated youths

LAHORE, Pakistan | The profile of those joining the militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba is changing to include more young, educated men, some of whom even hold advanced degrees.

"The big change is that until a few years back most of the militants were hailing from the [Afghan] frontier, but now the scenario has changed and young men from all over Pakistan are joining," said Brig. Gen. Mahmood Shah, who served the Pakistani army in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas on the border with Afghanistan.

Brendan O´Duffy, a researcher from the University of London who has studied militant organizations in Britain, said he has found members are "mostly of working class origins but a large minority achieved relatively a high education, tending towards engineering and science degrees, including medicine in the case of the failed [June 2007] London and Glasgow attacks."

Kashif Alam, senior superintendent of police in the northwest city of Peshawar, said the profile of the average militant in Peshawar, near the border with Afghanistan, has changed but that the number of educated Pakistanis was actually decreasing.

"We´re seeing an increase in the number of criminals who are working for these militant organizations," he said. "More and more of their operations are being carried out by criminals. Some of the people we have captured were found with thousands of rupees in their pockets."

This report is a gem, it is actually balanced, it presents two sides to the story and doesn't lead the reader to a conclusion.

[davidbfpo]

Given that snow lies seven feet deep in the mountains of Kashmir the deployment of extra Pakistani troops into the border region is questionable; any campaigning can only start in March at the earliest. There is a thread here on the Kargil operation, which may explain more.

I don't know where the quoted 14th Division is normally garrisoned, but moving a division into snowclad mountains seems unwise - even if they are mountain warfare trained and equipped.

Yes the Pakistani Army has deployed extra troops into the FATA, I've seen nothing to suggest these are the first rate divisions normally deployed on the Indian border. The bulk of the fighting has been b formations like the Frontier Corps and second line reinforcements.

Following Zadari's responses to the Mumbai attacks, in which he (reportedly) acknowledged Pakistan's national weakness, a weakness caused by the current instability (economy, FATA fighting etc) did not endear him to the Pakistani Army. Add in the Indian air incursions and the usual assortment of 'Great Game' activity - all makes a potent mixture.

Pakistan's national security and national defence belongs to the army, not politicians. Former president Musharraf was given a departure from Islamabad airport, on a trip to Europe, as if he still was the head of state and on his return this week spoke publically on the situation (Google News for the reporting, which I'd not seen here).

I would suggest that the current reported Pakistani military movements have more to do with the Pakistani Army asserting itself - assuring the nation it remains on guard.

davidbfpo

[Jedburgh]

All links are redundant.

The Hindu - Jan 7, 2009

This is a scanned copy of the 69-page dossier of material stemming from the ongoing investigation into the Mumbai terrorist attacks of November 26-29, 2008 that was handed over by India to Pakistan on January 5, 2009:

Part 1, 3.13mb

Part 2, 4.16mb

Part 3, 1.99mb

Part 4, 5.40mb

[Jedburgh]

RAND, 16 Jan 09: The Lessons of Mumbai

This study of the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 2008 is part of the RAND Corporation Occasional Papers series. The research for this report was completed in December 2008 and updated as of January 9, 2009. Much of the information available for this necessarily preliminary analysis comes from reporting by the news media, which in such circumstances is
often inaccurate, and from information provided by well-placed Indian and U.S. government sources, which sometimes is incomplete. For a thorough, and hopefully accurate reconstruction of events, we must await an official inquiry or government-sponsored independent investigation. With these caveats, this paper

• Identifies the operational and tactical features and technical capabilities displayed by the terrorists—the extent to which the means employed in the attack were innovations or built on previous experiences.

• Evaluates the response of the Indian security forces.

• Draws out the implications of the incident for India, Pakistan, and the international community.

• Derives the lessons learned from the attack and the Indian response.

The goal of the study is to develop findings that may be helpful to counterterrorism authorities in India and elsewhere in preparing for or countering future terrorist attacks on urban centers.

Complete 37-page paper at the link.

[davidbfpo]

A short balanced commentary by the London-based IISS: http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...ror-in-mumbai/

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

Stephen Tankel has written a paper on LeT: http://icsr.info/2009/04/lashkar-e-t...911-to-mumbai/
He is a UK based analyst and writes very well on the group (Cited before No.18). On a quick read takes a broad view.

davidbfpo

[davidbfpo]

As the trial of the lone Pakistani terrorist moves along at an Indian pace, a new BBC report: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/5...-happened.html . Part of a programme due to be shown tonight. Interesting comments on whether observers were present giving updates, the BBC dismiss tactical knowledge was vailable from watching TV reporting.

(Added 6th August 2009). The lone terrorist has pleaded guilty by surprise, the trial goes on IIRC.

davidbfpo