Insurgent sources

[max161]

I do not usually use any type of open source for academic research and am therefore largely unfamiliar with basic courtesies. Indeed, I did not believe that I could use this type of evidence until my thesis adviser, a retired Air Force Intel Officer and current Poli Sci professor, pointed me to this site as an excellent resource, which it has proved to be.

Surely this statement did not come out the way you meant it to and I say this half in jest. I do not know how you could do any type of academic research without using open sources (and since you have only applied for your security clearance I would question how you could have been using classified information for all your research). But I do not think that is what you meant and I assume from the context of your post that you meant you do not usually use sources such as Small Wars Journal or solicit assistance via the Internet. But looking back over your statement about not using open source for academic research is slightly humorous.

But I do wish you luck. I would not be too worried about OPSEC but if I were advising you I would say be careful that you have not already written your conclusion without the data to back it up. Sounds like your "real thesis" is that no one is seeing the links that you think you see and because of this we are missing something in our execution of the war on terrorism. I would caution anyone doing research to have a foregone conclusion as it will taint your search for and analysis of the facts.

However, my belief is that the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) being used by the enemy are not all that unique or new. The use of terror, the techniques to cause terror in the hearts and minds of people and governments are not that new. Sure they are adapted to today's technology and there are certain adaptations due to specific cultural influences but in the end the TTPs are all variations on a theme. Now if you accept such a thesis then you have to ask, "so what?" E.G., so what if today's terrorists are using the TTPs is the Red Brigade and Baader Meinhof or others? How is that going to help us? Yes it would be nice to be able to predict (or more realistically, anticipate) what might happen in the future but we should also realize that the range of TTPs, likely targets, and timing are made up of infinite variations making any type of prediction impossible. There are only about 5 things that we can do to be successful against terrorists (and insurgents):
1. Deny sanctuary
2. Deny mobility
3. Deny access to resources
4. Separate the population from the terrorists/insurgents (denying them support that provides sanctuary, mobility, and resources)
5. Conduct comprehensive (or holistic or all source) intelligence activities that facilitate targeting but also includes infiltration into terror networks which is the only way we can really have any chance of any kind of anticipatory action.

But I would ask you even if you can "prove" that today's terrorists have read and adapted the TTPs of European terrorists how that will help us?

Here is another example for you. Mao, Giap, and Ho Chi Minh developed their revolutionary theories and operational strategies based in part on studying the greatest insurgency ever successfully executed: the American Revolution. Mao, in particular, studied George Washington in some depth. We knew that, but did that help us to prevent Mao from defeating Chaing? Could it have helped us? I doubt it.

Again, I wish you the best in your research.