Supply routes to Afghanistan

[davidbfpo]

The headline is 'Militants attack convoy of Nato tankers in Pakistan', which after recent allegations and history may come as no surprise, read on as there is a surprise.

Gunmen in Southern Pakistan have torched tankers carrying fuel destined for Nato troops in Afghanistan, one day after Pakistani authorities stopped supply convoys in protest at a cross-border air strike that killed three soldiers....which were parked in Shikarpur just before dawn....

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ghanistan.html

Never having heard of this district I checked with Google etc; it is in Sindh Province and where two national highways crossover. Coordinates: 28.00°N 68.40°E and on the route to Quetta northwards:http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=28,68...r,%20Pakistan)

This is the furthest south I can recall such an attack.

[davidbfpo]

Behind the headlines that Pakistan has opened the Afghan crossing points to NATO truck movements an unusual mention of the option few talk about - using Iran.

A commentary on the opening and Pakistan's use of the valve:http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensec...-10-12%2005:30

The commentary that refers to using Iran:http://www.opendemocracy.net/neil-pa...ghan-stability

Two paragraphs:

Today the Afghan campaign is reliant on Pakistan’s transit routes, which are subject to repeated attack, and the US allegedly has “no alternatives” to dealing with the anti-ISAF forces in Pakistan on their own terms. A transport link through Iran would reduce this western vulnerability, giving ISAF a freer hand to hold Pakistan accountable, while easing Islamabad’s own security burden and forcing the Pakistani military to take serious action.

Greater coordination with Tehran would also help bring the western Afghan warlords in Iran’s sphere of influence into the political process, counter Sunni extremists like the Taliban, manage Afghan opium cultivation (of which Iran is the greatest victim), and open up a secure trade and transport route to Central Asia – not to mention stabilize Iraq and the Gulf. Though Washington sees Iran through the lens of Israel, Tehran may be a lynchpin to a stable Afghanistan, a prospect that’s otherwise looking bleak.

Many links within the article - which I have not followed.

I suspect that some European NATO members already use the Iranian route, which IIRC has a rail link to the city near Herat.

[Danny]

Davidbfpo,

I appreciate your following this issue. Like me, you have been interested in it for a while.

But the commentary is flawed. Of course we have alternatives. Easy? No. It would require work. Cheap? No. It would require financing. Serenely safe? Probably not. It would require some amount of guarding. But of course, these issues aren't so troublesome now that they can be compared to the same thing through Pakistan.

Bold? Sure. It would be right in the Russian's back yard. And maybe this would be one advantage of it, along with saving Georgia from the next Russian invasion (to get to their bases in Armenia).

http://www.captainsjournal.com/2009/...-the-caucasus/

If only we had started this process 18 months ago like I recommended, and if only they had listened to me 2.5 years ago when I told them exactly what the enemy strategy would be (attacking international and local lines of logistics).

http://www.captainsjournal.com/2008/...d-afghanistan/

I don't mean to preen, but it's all out in front of them. All of the warnings were issued. It's too late for them to complain about it now. It could have been different but they chose the current course.

[davidbfpo]

Danny,

What I do not understand is how politicians, diplomats and many others got to this position before a single lorry moved. I vividly recall commenting an open meeting in Whitehall 'We cannot wage any campaign in Afghanistan without Pakistani logistic support' and the looks of surprise that the issue was raised were amazing.

Straying away from the logistic theme for a moment. In strategic terms how have we ended up with such a large, heavy commitment in Afghanistan, pursuing aims that history and culture strongly indicate will not work?

Add logistic vulnerability and you just gasp. Akin to Nelson at Copenhagen, not watching the signals.

[Fuchs]

"Evolution of Petroleum Support in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility" Army Sustainment Sept/Oct 2010


I didn't check for it, maybe someone else already mentioned this article.

[davidbfpo]

Fuchs,

Some of the information has appeared before, but the article has a lot more detail and IIRC the first time the date when a switch to the north was agreed upon. So thank you.

[davidbfpo]

THe following sentence struck me as odd, even allowing for the "spin" before a NATO summit where Russia is attending:

Moscow will allow Nato forces to withdraw equipment from Afghanistan overland for the first time, in proposals expected to be agreed in Lisbon.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ghanistan.html

[davidbfpo]

A small snippet:

Zaranj is a desert border town of around 100,000 people just across the border from Milak Iran. The Indian Government’s Border Roads Organization just completed a modern hard top road from Zaranj to the ring road and the city of Delaram. That means there is now a modern hard ball road direct from the deep water port of Chabahar, Iran to the ring road of Afghanistan and beyond. That route could prove significant to somebody at some point in the future. For now it is hard to capitalize on having a modern route to a large seaport given that the run from Nimroz to Kabul is 500 kilometer ambush alley for truckers.

Link:http://freerangeinternational.com/blog/?p=3708

Map:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaranj

This road has been open since January 2009, apart from the Indians who else uses it?

[davidbfpo]

A short article on the relationships and a few snippets:

..more than a third of supplies to Nato forces in Afghanistan pass through Pakistan...the Northern Distribution Network...has already become more important in the past year as the US began switching supplies from Pakistan's roads.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...n-fallout.html

[davidbfpo]

An article in The Economist on the Pak-US relationship crisis (covered on another thread) contains this section, which I assume is based on briefings:

In the past few months NATO—and especially the Americans—have done an impressive job of reducing their reliance on land transport corridors through Pakistan to supply Western soldiers in Afghanistan. Over the past 120 days, for example, of the materiel received by the Americans in Afghanistan, around 30% was flown in and 40% was driven over Afghanistan’s northern borders from Central Asia, leaving just 30% to come via Pakistan's roads. That is a sharp reduction on previous years. Thus the immediate and predictable closing of the Pakistan route, in response to the deaths on the border, should prove less disruptive than it once would have been.

Link:http://www.economist.com/blogs/banya...erica?fsrc=rss

[Dayuhan]

Dropping the Pakistani share of supply transit is a good and desirable thing, but the Northern Distribution Network is also vulnerable and keeps the US dependent on the good will of countries nobody would want to rely on... Islam Karimov is about the last guy on the face of the planet I'd want to see us cozy up to.

I suppose alternate networks could be developed through Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, but there are issues there as well. Ultimately the solution is to reduce the scale of the Afghan operation and to put it on a bit of a diet... like others here, I wonder sometimes if the teeth-to-tail ratio couldn't bias a bit more toward teeth and if the same results couldn't be achieved in a less supply-intensive environment. Is it really necessary to provide an American lifestyle for gigantic bases full of people who rarely if ever leave the wire... or are the accounts suggesting that this is the case exaggerated?

[Fuchs]

All these percentages don't tell me much.

The quantity of troops increased, so a drop from "80%" to "30%" is probably no major absolute drop at all?

[davidbfpo]

Almost my "pet" subject the logistical aspect of campaigning in Afghanistan.

First check the map to orientate:http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zRMgPKI_AE...fghanistan.jpg

Which accompanies this FP Blog commentary looking at the northern route (NDN) and the Byzantine local politics:http://www.foreignpolicy.com/article...o_ndn?page=0,0

With a fascinating tale of the railway bridge that was blown up and a close-in map here:http://www.fergananews.com/news.php?id=17660&mode=snews

I had not realised that Turkmenistan is neutral in Afghan matters and so not part to the NDN. A curious stance for a neighbour to take, so I might have a peek as to why, unless readers know.

[KingJaja]

Even the US with all its money cannot sustain the Afghan campaign for long.

Osama is dead, declare victory and leave!

[davidbfpo]

Afghanistan has opened its first ever major railway route, paving the way for an alternative supply route for Nato troops after the crippling breakdown of relations with Pakistan.

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...ain-route.html

[carl]

Here is a link to a Bloomberg article about the Karachi supply line. Not only is it open or shut at the whim of the killers in the Pak Army/ISI, when it is open the amount of theft is mind numbing. Possibly tens of thousands of containers have gone walkabout.

http://www.businessweek.com/printer/...-12142011.html

Is there any earthly good the Pak Army/ISI is doing us? (The foregoing is a rhetorical question.)

[ganulv]

Is there any earthly good the Pak Army/ISI is doing us? (The foregoing is a rhetorical question.)

If nothing else, the decade in AfPak will surely be the last time the United States Government convinces itself that a self-interested and morally compromised cabal will develop a respect for TJATAW if they receive talking–tos about the importance of transparency in governance and respect for human rights every time the blank check is handed over.

[carl]

Ganulv: You underestimate the invincible regard the US Gov has for itself and its actions. It will be interesting though, in the art of rhetoric sense, to see how they go about justifying everything they've done as not only having been brilliant and effective, but as a model for the future.

[davidbfpo]

Opens with:

Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, signed a new defence co-operation agreement with Kazakhstan which the British Government hopes will enable an estimated £4 billion of equipment – including tanks and armoured personnel carriers – to be shipped out of northern Afghanistan.

Later this sentence struck me as, well, odd:

The Taliban have made clear that their guidance to Taliban fighters is not to attack Nato convoys passing through the north

Link:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukne...ithdrawal.html

Not to overlook that the Pakistani routes remain closed since November, which must surely be a record for the usual "stop & go" practice.

[davidbfpo]

Undoubtedly Sec. of Defence Leon Panetta's visit to the region led to these two NYT stories, but I do wonder if someone is adroitly coordinating the diplomatic process.

First:

One of Kyrgyzstan’s top defense officials told Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta on Tuesday that a crucial United States air base (Manas) here should have “no military mission” when its lease expires a little more than two years from now. The request creates a potential hurdle to American plans to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/wo...html?ref=world

Then:

The Kremlin expressed willingness on Wednesday to allow NATO to use an airfield (Ulyanovsk) in the heart of European Russia, in a city best known as Lenin’s birthplace, as a transit center for moving troops and “nonlethal” cargo into Afghanistan.

Some comments by the Russian minister on why the West should remain in Afghanistan too.

Link:http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/wo...nsit.html?_r=1