Supply routes to Afghanistan

[tequila]

Interesting McClatchy story on Khyber Agency:

U.S. Afghan supply lines depend on Islamic militant - McClatchy, 25 April.

The only thing standing between Pakistan's Taliban and the lifeline for U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan may be an Islamist warlord who controls the area near Pakistan's famed Khyber Pass.

In an interview with McClatchy, Mangal Bagh, who leads a group called Lashkar-i-Islam, voiced his disdain for America but said he's rebuffed an offer from the Taliban to join them.

Truckloads of food, equipment and fuel for NATO troops wind through the Khyber Pass daily to the bustling border at Torkham. Last month, Taliban fighters bombed fuel trucks waiting at Torkham to cross into Afghanistan, and last week, fighting between Bagh's men and a pocket of Taliban resistance closed the highway for several days.

Locals said that Bagh wouldn't allow Taliban fighters to cross into the Khyber agency, which is part of Pakistan's tribal belt and is now largely under his control ...

Bagh's stance has led to allegations that he has ties to Pakistani authorities or to the country's Inter-Services Intelligence agency.
One of the senior members of Lashkar-i-Islam, Mistry-Sahib, denied any connection with the Pakistan state.

"We don't want to fight the government (unlike the Taliban); it is our country," said Mistry. "We just want peace in our area. We have no connection with the government because their policies are not right."

Pakistani authorities appear to have withdrawn from Bara and much of Khyber agency, and they've taken no recent action to rein in Bagh ...

[davidbfpo]

A few weeks ago I commented on the overland supply routes used by ISAF / NATO and USA via Pakistan, found just:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071114/...15GzQeG1Cs0NUE

The interesting part I quote:

Pentagon press secretary Geoff Morrell said the supply lines are "very real areas of concern" because about 75 percent of the supplies, including 40 percent of vehicle fuel supplies, either go through or over Pakistan.

"We hope it doesn't come to this," Morrell told reporters. "Right now we've seen no indications that any of our supply lines have been impacted."

davidbfpo

[Ray]

China goes beyond Pak, will build rail line to Iran

This weekend, Beijing will unveil plans to build a new rail corridor that will eventually link China to the Mediterranean Sea through Central Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran.

Liu Zhijun, China’s railway minister, is landing in Iran on Sunday to clinch an agreement on one important segment of this new Silk Road between the Far East and the Mediterranean, according to news reports from Beijing and Tehran.

Liu is expected to sign an agreement with Iranian transport minister, Hamid Behbahani, on building a rail line between Tehran and Khosravi on the border with Iraq.

China goes beyond Pak, will build rail line to Iran - Indian Express

Note: Very noble intentions of the Chinese.

But they will build where it helps her to further her hegemonic aims.

The remainder is to throw the world off the scent!

[omarali50]

A theory about why supplies are still stuck.
http://www.brownpundits.com/why-is-p...nato-supplies/

What do you think?

[carl]

Omar:

You put point three in there for comic relief right? Other than that it sounds quite good to me, especially the money part.

[davidbfpo]

Well it seems that ISAF has made a decision, from the BBC:

Nato has signed deals with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan to use their territory for evacuating vehicles and military equipment from Afghanistan. The agreement will allow the military alliance to bypass Pakistan, which has blocked Nato from using its territory in a disagreement over drone strikes. Nato Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen... "These agreements will give us a range of new options and the robust and flexible transport network we need."

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18326970

I imagine Russia is chuckling at the prospect of a significant profit on moving items by train to the Baltic ports. One wonders how much each state will charge for a container and if GPS is fitted to those cargoes that have a propensity to go AWOL.

[omarali50]

Carl, Point 3 was meant as "some people say...". Some people do say that. I find it hard to believe because I dont think US policy is ever that clever. Personally, I tend to assume that what you see is what you get, with the caveat that there must be many small conspiracies and overclever schemes below the surface, but they probably cancel each other out. Something like that.

David, the price gouging in the North is going to be insane, which is why Pakistan still has hope for its 5000 dollar demand. But just "a case", not a done deal. They may haggle themselves out of it...

[davidbfpo]

I have a vague recollection after Op Desert Storm non-lethal supplies were buried, notably medical equipment. Once the logistical and financial calculations are made I expect the Afghans will be digging for years to come.

[Ray]

India initiates rail route plan through Central Asia

India has taken the lead in what it calls “kickstarting” an “international north-south corridor” from Iran to Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan to ensure a seamless connectivity to Central Asia. New Delhi wants this corridor to be operational by 2013.

Government sources said here on Wednesday that New Delhi met interlocutors from these partner countries in January to initiate the process. The plan, kept under the wraps so far, is in keeping with the the country’s “Look Central Asia policy”.

In this context, experts have identified the “missing links” in rail connectivity. “There is road connectivity, but what we want is a seamless rail connectivity. This will ensure a faster, a more hassle-free and less expensive way to transport goods through Iran to the Central Asian countries and further north to Russia,” a government source said.
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/in...l-asia/918502/

The Chahbahar port, that India built in Iran, will become a hub.

It will permit moving of goods to countries North of Afghanistan and who knows how that gets funnelled into Afghanistan for the ISAF. It is obviously to Iran's advantage that the Pakistan (Sunni) based Taliban does not get an upper hand at the expense of the minority Shias in Afghanistan!

Conjecture, but then there are many oddities that occur in foreign policy.

In this context this is report is of interest:

India Set To Be Bigger Player In Afghanistan NATO Transport?

The U.S. military might rely on India as a way of getting equipment in and out of Afghanistan if Pakistan doesn't cooperate, a senior military official has said. The official, Marine Lt. Gen. Frank Panter, deputy commandant for installations and logistics, testified at a Congressional hearing on Thursday and was asked about the U.S.'s plans if Pakistan doesn't soon start to allow U.S. and NATO supplies to again transit that country. He said India would be part of the solution, according to a report from the Press Trust of India.
http://www.eurasianet.org/taxonomy/term/2323

[carl]

Ray:

It seems to me that this doesn't have much to do with keeping NATO efforts supplied. It has more to do with keeping Indian efforts in Afghanistan (with or without troops) supplied once NATO bugs out.

[Fuchs]

I don't suspect the slightest military intent in this. India is looking for economic vacant growth paths.

[carl]

I don't suspect the slightest military intent in this. India is looking for economic vacant growth paths.

That too!

[davidbfpo]

Where are the Iranian and 'Stans railway enthusiasts when you need them? I fear there are none here on SWC.

On a quick check on Wikipedia there is no existing railway line to the port of Chabahar and it is very mixed "fog" about existing links to the 'Stans. Not to overlook the different gauges in use. Lots of 'plans' and statements by all parties.

[Ray]

India Set To Be Bigger Player In Afghanistan NATO Transport?

The U.S. military might rely on India as a way of getting equipment in and out of Afghanistan if Pakistan doesn't cooperate, a senior military official has said. The official, Marine Lt. Gen. Frank Panter, deputy commandant for installations and logistics, testified at a Congressional hearing on Thursday and was asked about the U.S.'s plans if Pakistan doesn't soon start to allow U.S. and NATO supplies to again transit that country. He said India would be part of the solution, according to a report from the Press Trust of India.
http://www.eurasianet.org/taxonomy/term/2323

How does India get equipment in and out of Afghanistan (for ISAF) if Pakistan doesn't cooperate?

Or be part of the solution when there is no land mass continuity?

What did the US Marine Lt Gen have in mind when he testified to the Congress?

Also

ISAF's new plan for Afghanistan
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archiv..._john_alle.php

If Pakistan closes the transit route, how are they to be sustained?

[Fuchs]

Where are the Iranian and 'Stans railway enthusiasts when you need them? I fear there are none here on SWC.

On a quick check on Wikipedia there is no existing railway line to the port of Chabahar and it is very mixed "fog" about existing links to the 'Stans. Not to overlook the different gauges in use. Lots of 'plans' and statements by all parties.

There have been trains with variable gauge for many decades, this should not be a major issue - especially if you remember the great importance of ISO containers nowadays (easy transfer from train to train).

[Ray]

Russia slams NATO’s Afghanistan exit plan

Moscow views NATO’s military effort in Afghanistan as crucial for its own security, including helping to prevent instability from spreading into ex-Soviet Central Asia.

Russia has provided NATO with air corridors and railway routes for carrying supplies to and from landlocked Afghanistan. The link has become particularly important since Pakistan blocked NATO supplies from crossing its territory following an alliance airstrike that killed 24 Pakistani border troops in November.

On Thursday, Lavrov and NATO ministers discussed a plan to give the alliance a new logistics facility on Russian territory to transfer military cargo to and from Afghanistan.

The proposal now being considered by Russian lawmakers would for the first time allow alliance members to set up a logistics facility in Ulyanovsk, Russia, for troops and cargo.

http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/20...-plans-041912/

Finally some sense is dawning on the Russian mind?

[davidbfpo]

Ray,

Certainly not my conclusion:

Finally some sense is dawning on the Russian mind?

The Russians have for sometime now been critical of the approach taken in Afghanistan and a couple of years ago they expected the USA / West would stay.

The cited report Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as saying:

As long as Afghanistan is not able to ensure by itself the security in the country, the artificial timelines of withdrawal are not correct and they should not be set.

Given the stance taken by Pakistan on allowing ISAF logistic access, for an unprecedented six months now, the Russians and other 'Stans have much to gain in hiring their facilities.

If we look forward to a post-ISAF / US exit Afghanistan how much instability will migrate across the border? Little I say and the neighbours are quite adept at playing 'The Great Game'. Note one neighbour, Turkmenistan is already studiously neutral, allowing no logistic access and refrains from involvement.

[Ray]

India has built the Chahbahar port in Iran and has linked it to the road made by India in Western Afghanistan (zaranj-delaram ).

There are reports in the Pakistani media that Iran is opening up the Indian made port Chahbahar for NATO supplies. http://www.pakistankakhudahafiz.com/...aranj-delaram/

It is a bit surprising that Iran will allow transit of NATO supplies to Iran, but if read in context with the link below, it makes some sense.

India Set To Be Bigger Player In Afghanistan NATO Transport?
The U.S. military might rely on India as a way of getting equipment in and out of Afghanistan if Pakistan doesn't cooperate, a senior military official has said. The official, Marine Lt. Gen. Frank Panter, deputy commandant for installations and logistics, testified at a Congressional hearing on Thursday and was asked about the U.S.'s plans if Pakistan doesn't soon start to allow U.S. and NATO supplies to again transit that country
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/65207

And India is to build a rail link between Iran and Afghanistan.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-...e1-763448.aspx

Therefore, there are too many fingers in the pie to really be able to know how too many cooks can spoil the broth!

[davidbfpo]

I've adapted the title from the last sentence in Ray's last post here:

Therefore, there are too many fingers in the pie to really be able to know how too many cooks can spoil the broth!

Hat tip to omerali50 for identifying a change is underway, when referring to a LA Times report, I've underlined the keyword:http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/worl...ng-summit.html

NATO on Tuesday announced that Pakistan would be invited to the alliance’s Chicago summit on the future of Afghanistan this weekend, following signs from Pakistani authorities that they would end their nearly six-month blockade on Afghanistan-bound NATO supply routes through their country. President Asif Ali Zardari’s spokesman, Farhatullah Babar, said NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh-Rasmussen phoned the Pakistani leader Tuesday to extend the invitation.

Earlier this week, the alliance had suggested that Pakistan’s participation in the May 20-21 gathering would not be possible if the supply routes remained closed. However, Babar insisted that the invitation was unconditional and not linked to the reopening of the supply routes.

It will be interesting if President Zadari is brave enough to announce the supply routes are open in Chicago, Obama's home-town. Personally I have m' doubts. Surely Obama can offer more than broth?

[omarali50]

I think its a mistake to pour on the broth to reward the reopening of the supply business. Unless something else has changed, that just takes us back to where we were....why would that constitute some sort of success?