Agricultural Component of the Afghanistan Surge?

[Jedburgh]

Roots of Peace, 2 Sep 09: Comparative Net Income from Afghan Crops

Among the long list of challenges in rebuilding Afghanistan, drugs stand out as the most daunting of tasks which offends our civil society. It is such a daunting task that many believe that it is impossible to find an alternative crop that pays farmers better than poppy. The reality is that there several more lucrative alternatives to poppy. The myth is that there are no better alternatives. The second myth is that the drug problem is the fault of the drug lords and cartels and we simply need to stamp out all production of this evil plant. The reality is that we must stop looking to solve our drug problem solely by stopping its’ production. Production of heroin is surely a problem we need to solve, but as long as there are buyers in the western markets, there will be producers somewhere in this world. Historically, the power of the market has proven to be irresistible and unbeatable: if market conditions are right, someone will respond. But, we can use these same market forces to stimulate Afghan farmers to switch out of poppy production by helping them see the better income opportunities associated with alternative crops. Perennial crops, like grapes, almonds, apricots, cherries and pomegranates have a clear advantage over opium.

AREU, Apr 09: Water Management, Livestock and the Opium Economy: Challenges and Opportunities for Strengthening Licit Agricultural Livelihoods

The major objective of this research is to enhance the sustainability of Afghan rural livelihoods and reduce dependency on illicit crops by providing policymakers with clear and accurate information on the use, management and role of natural resources in farming systems, and how these influence opportunities for agricultural development. The research is intended to produce evidence-based recommendations to increase the effectiveness of agricultural and rural policy. To achieve this goal the WOL project team has undertaken an ambitious programme of field research, spanning eight Afghan provinces and many rural communities, using a combination of research methods and integrating diverse thematic studies through an empirically grounded farming systems approach.

[Surferbeetle]

From the Stars and Stripes by Sandra Jontz Water projects hurting Afghan farmers

KHOST PROVINCE, Afghanistan — Poor placement and management of wells and dams over several years by nongovernmental organizations and military reconstruction teams throughout Khost province have drained water tables, drying out land cultivated by thousands of farmers in the mountains.

As a result, some farmers who grow wheat, corn, rice or fruit didn’t grow enough crops to feed their families. They turned to earning money by logging and goat herding or other means, and bought food at markets.

The solution is smaller dams that are easier to maintain and allow melted snow and rainwater to pool in more places and seep into the ground, raising the water table.

The dams, ranging from one to three feet in height, will be easier for villagers to clean and maintain, said Joyce, who before joining the Army worked as a ranch manager in western Oregon.

Watershed management is one of many projects undertaken by the ADT soldiers, who arrived in eastern Afghanistan in March as part of the U.S. military’s effort to stabilize farming, the country’s main source of subsistence and income. Roughly 85 percent of the nation’s inhabitants are farmers.

The state of Indiana has pledged to supply National Guard units for five years to maintain continuity in the effort, officials said. The 1-19th is the first.

By stabilizing the farming industry, and enabling farmers to not only survive but eventually profit, officials hope to give military-age men alternatives to fighting alongside the anti-government forces, which in the province include the Taliban, al-Qaida and the Haqqani network.

The handpicked teams of guardsmen are specialists in agribusiness, including farming, ranching and business practices, and will help Afghans with, among other things, forestry, agronomy, horticulture, range land management and animal husbandry, said Maj. Ron Crane, the educational director. He recently hosted a "train the trainer" session for Afghan extension agents.

[slapout9]

From the Stars and Stripes by Sandra Jontz Water projects hurting Afghan farmers

Excellent post Surfer. That is some systems thinking If you get the water....you get the food. These are Strategic targets of the highest order they determine whether a population will live or die regardless of what belief they system is.

Lock....er down....getttt er done

[Surferbeetle]

Lock....er down....getttt er done

Darcy's law is the start point. Aquifer modeling software can be a bear to use, it can also be a bit black-box, but it's worth the time. Visual Modflow is often considered to be the standard-bearer in this field (I have no financial interests or otherwise in the company). One of the technical reference bibles regarding aquifer modeling is Freeze and Cherry's book Groundwater Aquifer/Groundwater modeling is a graduate course offering in civil engineering programs...and I suspect that petroleum engineers would be able to offer a wealth of information to anyone so interested..

[marct]

and I suspect that petroleum engineers would be able to offer a wealth of information to anyone so interested..

I have a friend who is a hydrogeologist who has done a lot of work building modeling software in the area as well.

[Surferbeetle]

Hey Marc,

We will need to catch a beer sometime

As we consider the Stars and Stripes story we might also think about how a groundwater model is built and what it can tell us versus what we think it can tell us. Here are a few things to consider, and of course this is not an all inclusive list:

1. Was the model developed using uniform procedures and methods?

2. How was the above ground survey performed?

• Ground team, LIDAR, IFSAR, etc? Each has pro's and con's and different levels of accuracy and precision which can significantly impact the model.

• Was the same datum used for measurements taken?

3. How were engineering properties/concerns that we need to input into the model gathered?

• When were all of the water surface elevations taken (spring, summer, fall, winter, morning, lunchtime, evening, etc.) and how were they measured?

• Were the wells logged and the resulting data captured?

• Can the resulting geotechnical data be used to estimate transmissivity, storage, etc. ?

• Were the effects of nearby wells considered?

4. How often is data captured to update the model?

5. Is there a QA/QC process and do all involved understand it and buy in?

Most importantly we need to ask if all ISAF personnel are consistently coaching Afghans how to catch that particular fish.

[Surferbeetle]

From the September 10th 2009 Economist: India's water crisis
When the rains fail

Many Indians share his worries. Around 450m live off rain-fed agriculture, and this year’s monsoon rains, which between June and September provide 80% of India’s precipitation, have been the scantiest in decades. Almost half India’s 604 districts are affected by drought, especially in the poorest and most populous states—such as Bihar, which has declared drought in 26 of its 38 districts. Uttar Pradesh (UP), home to 185m, expects its main rice harvest to be down by 60%. The outlook for the winter wheat crop is also poor, with India’s main reservoirs, a source for irrigation canals, one-third below their seasonal average. That also means less water for thirsty cities, including Delhi, where 18m people live and the water board meets around half their demand in a good year.

Belated cloudbursts in AP and other states have brought relief. But late sowing tends to produce a thin harvest. AP counted some 20 farmer suicides last month, and there will be more. A short drive from Hyderabad, Koteswara Rao watched as four Hindu outcasts and two blue-horned bullocks ploughed his 16 acres (14 of them leased) for cotton. If it fails he will be left with a $4,000 debt and, being of lofty caste, he said, he could never sweat it out as a labourer. “Suicide would be easier.”