Agricultural Component of the Afghanistan Surge?

[Surferbeetle]

Ken,

As always I learn from your posts and am interested in references if you are willing to share. The DOS/USAID splits are of particular interest as well as the Goldwater Nichols history.

jkm_101_fso 's post(thanks for the link jkm) is significant in several ways.

It's good to see the need for an agricultural surge officially acknowledged. A quick back of the envelope calculation tells me that if your average Afghani Farmer works for 6 months, takes every Friday off, and only works eight hours a day (most farmers work more), then he would be spending 1248 hours focused on improving his, his family's, and his nation's condition through agriculture as opposed to spending this time engaged in warfare. Depending upon the size of the force opposing us as well as the number of folks needed to push the country to stability, the total number of hours at stake is not insignificant. It would be wise of us to help the Afghani's to spend these hours on agriculture.

From the article I gather that 6 ADT's will be deployed to a country that has ~ 20 million arable acres. The ADT's are not alone

John Santas, an associate director of international agricultural programs at the University of Illinois, and Myers, a not-so-retired professor of plant genetics at SIUC, are heading a new project funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development to revitalize agricultural education in Afghanistan as part of postwar reconstruction efforts.

From a practical standpoint as one who has been dropped off in the boonies with a couple of duffle bags and told 'figure it out' I still have questions:

1) Who's in charge of the Ag Effort?
2) Will DOD, DOS, USAID, USACE, & Coalition Forces support this?
3) How is it prioritized and resourced?
4) How are we tying ADT's, PRT's, Universities, NGO's, IO's, and Coalition forces together?
5) What are the metrics for 2009 (ie how many tons of wheat, cotton, pomegranates etc.)?
6) Who is the CIO and what are the digital languages we will speak during this effort?

As I look for answers to these and other questions I am struck by the diMe as opposed to DIME emphasis. Once again it seems we (M=Military) are going to be planning, blocking, and carrying the ball while most everybody else will be smoking and joking on the bench.

Going back to the article, if we keep doing the same things I predict that we can except the same perceptions and outcomes.

Regards,

Steve

[ODB]

I recall reading some years back that prior to the Soviet invasion, Afghanistan was 3rd in the world for tourism and much of the land was covered with orchards. The Soviets knocked out most if not all the irrigation infastructure (down to 3%) and in the process created a climate change in the region. Creating a much drier climate than they already had, when there in 2002 many Aghans commented when it rained in Kandahar it was the first rain something like 10 years. Wondering if others have read/heard the same? If they actually had this once before can it not be done again? I understand the time to get trees to maturity to bear fruit, but in the process can we not reverse the climate in the region? In doing so making the region much more productive overall.

[Ken White]

...am interested in references if you are willing to share. The DOS/USAID splits are of particular interest as well as the Goldwater Nichols history.

There's no share to it, I have no file on the topic. It's all out there and Google works.

Not at all hard to find LINK. Note that Democratic foibles in 1971 and 1978 lead to emasculation which was completed by the Peace, Prosperity and Democracy Act (heh. How pathetic is that name...) of 1994.

That set the stage for the Administration to jawbone the Congress:

Arguing that the Secretary of State should have more direct control over all tools of U.S. foreign policy, a number of analysts and members of Congress proposed in the mid-1990s to abolish the U.S. Information Agency (USIA), the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA) and USAID, and consolidate their operations within the State Department. After three years of debate, Congress enacted legislation in 1998 (Division G of P.L.105-277), transferring USIA and ACDA into State, but retaining USAID as an independent agency. The legislation, however, further required that the USAID Administrator report to and serve under the foreign policy guidance of the Secretary of State. This remains the current relationship between USAID and the Department of State.

The 'analysts' above cited were mostly from DoD and the Congroids were those Bill got to push his vision -- and State's -- to consolidate their power and get hold of the AID budget to an extent. Bill pushed ececutive power like all Presidents have (and will...), he was just a shrewder politician in the way he went about it than many.

The above quote is from a CRS study LINK and is on Page CRS 9 . Note (Pages CRS 3 and 4) that for 2006, State managed $10.6B, USAID managed $4.37B and the two jointly managed $2.6B. It's all about money...

Addressing part of the flaky article's point, note on Page CRS 10 that the funding lines are still opaque -- that's the way Congress likes it -- that way they get to allocate $$$ and don't have to answer questions about it.

Going back to the article, if we keep doing the same things I predict that we can except the same perceptions and outcomes.

Foolish and pointless article -- his 'solutions' are aimed at a symptom, not the problem; as I said above (to and for State) "Physician, heal thyself."

In order for change to be made, State will have to correct it's ideological bias (unlikely) AND Congress will have to put the good of the nation above partisan politics (even more unlikely) and our system of budgetary allocation will need to be changed (still more unlikely). That sounds bad -- and it is -- yet, incremental change, always the American way, can and does occur. Unfortunately, it's usually one step forward and two back but every now and then, with a charismatic President (I see none in the near future, including the next), a good Congress (those do occur with moderate frequency) or a significant event (hopefully not... ) we get three steps forward and only one back.

As for Goldwater Nichols, I'm not sure what you're asking for. The Act itself is out there, plenty of discussion about it is also easily found. What I said about it was: ""Goldwater Nichols which placed the geographic CinCs in a position to dominate regions of the world while State did and said nothing..."" I'm unsure why that needs amplification as I thought it was pretty much common knowledge.

The point is that was an unintended consequence; the Act was designed to strengthen the power of combatant commanders versus the DC DoD and Service Chief bureaucracies. It did that but it also inadvertently created a series of regional bureaucracies which provided Pro Consuls or Satraps in the form of the Cincs who were and are located in (mostly) and looking at large multinational regions on a consolidated and daily basis. At the same time, State had only individual Ambassadors in each country, the regional focus was effective only within the State bureaucracy in DC and those folks did not have the clout that the individual Ambassadors had or have. Nor did they have the clout that more money and visibility gave the Cincs. Congress frequently outsmarts itself like that...

[jkm_101_fso]

Found some more info...

KANSAS NATIONAL GUARD WILL DEPLOY AGRIBUSINESS DEVELOPMENT TEAM TO AFGHANISTAN


One of the things the United States is known for is its military might, but a group of Kansas National Guardsmen will soon be demonstrating that there is more to the National Guard than that as they deploy in February 2009 to show the people of Afghanistan how to do something that Kansans are known for: farming.


A joint Kansas Army and Air National Guard team of approximately 60 personnel will go to Afghanistan next year as an Agribusiness Development Team (ADT). The team, comprised of personnel with backgrounds and expertise in various aspects of the agribusiness field, will work in conjunction with the Provincial Reconstruction Team, USAID, USDA, the Department of State and other agencies in Afghanistan's Laghman Province. Their year-long mission is to assist in building capabilities for increased agricultural production, training and services, and improving the safety of food and other agricultural products that are produced and distributed to the Afghan people. They will also assist in the development of sustainable agriculture and other related enterprises that will increase the economic well-being of the Afghans.


The Kansas National Guard will be performing this mission in partnership with Kansas State University over a three year period to build continuity and relationships with local and regional Afghan individuals and leaders.

Entire article:
http://www.kansas.gov/ksadjutantgene...008/08-122.htm

More:

Military team melds farming, business savvy for Afghanistan

by Mike Belt
November 23, 2008

A team of Kansas National Guard troops will go to Afghanistan next year to combine its military and civilian skills and help to improve the country’s agricultural capabilities.

“We’re looking at agricultural-type tasks, while at the same time we have to provide security for when we go out to villages and interact with the populace,” said Capt. Trent Miller, of Eudora. “We’ve got two ongoing missions rolled into one.”

A team of 60 Army and Air Guard members has been specially selected for an agribusiness development team.

In February, the team’s members will begin their year-long deployment to Laghman Province in northeastern Afghanistan.

Article: http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2008/no...ni/?city_local

[Surferbeetle]

Much more at the link

Accordingly, numerous Soviet-sponsored attempts to enlist popular support foundered. In 1981, the government announced formation of the National Fatherland Front, conceived as a coalition reaching out beyond the ranks of the Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan to village and tribal leaders. Although official claims, by 1986, asserted a total membership of over a million, the support was entirely illusory and its impact minimal. Other visible attempts to mobilize support entailed land reform, construction projects, literacy campaigns, and the promotion of greater civil equality for women. None of these initiatives, not even land reform, achieved much progress. Failure to resuscitate the Afghan economy, an important component for improving popular perceptions of the regime, also hampered the Soviets. In fact, the war—as evidenced by the effects of massive bombing—crippled development prospects by exacerbating agricultural shortages and driving up prices.30 As asserted in a retrospective analysis by M. A. Gareev, deputy chief of the Main Operations Directorate of the Soviet Army and later the General Staff, reform imposed from above had little prospect of success. Rather, he argued, support should have been built from below, beginning with the Moslem clergy, who numbered perhaps 40,000 and wielded tremendous influence.31 Still other measures that produced meager results included proclamations of amnesty for deserting soldiers and well-publicized agreements of cooperation with Islamic institutions.

An Afghanistan food price report from Reuters

Wheat prices have seen a marginal but steady decline since May in all the provinces in line with the "decreasing trend of wheat prices on global markets", it said.

Wheat prices have fallen by up to 17 percent in global markets over the past few months.

And a link on cloud seeding for ODB

Cloud seeding, a form of weather modification, is the attempt to change the amount or type of precipitation that falls from clouds, by dispersing substances into the air that serve as cloud condensation or ice nuclei, which alter the microphysical processes within the cloud. The usual intent is to increase precipitation (rain or snow), but hail and fog suppression are also widely practiced in airports.

[davidbfpo]

An excellent article on development work in Afghanistan, I concede there maybe some spin at work here: http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magaz...e-let-it.thtml

A Google search on the author Clare Lockhart found she's been on the Charlie Rose show, which appears to be a badge of success.

davidbfpo

[ODB]

Funny you mention that, just saw a show a few weeks ago about that. Pretty amazing stuff. I relate the issues in Afghanistan to our very own dust bowl years. The farming was done incorrect, caused massive erosion and dust storms. The debate has been made that through inproper/over cultivation enhanced the drought of the dust bowl years. I'm no where near an expert on these things, but it kind of makes sense to me.

Droughts occur frequently in the areas affected by desertification, and are generally a feature of their natural climate. The relations between desertification and drought on the one hand, and human influence on the other, are complex. Occasional droughts (due to seasonal or inter-year variations in rainfall) and long-term droughts covering wide areas are both caused or aggravated by the influence of man on the environment (the reduction in vegetation cover, the change in the Albedo effect, changes in the local climate, the greenhouse effect, etc.). Human influence can also hasten desertification and aggravate the negative consequences on man. But the degradation of land due to desertification has a serious compounding effect on drought, and thereby reduces the chances of the local people to cope with difficult periods.

http://www.fao.org/sd/EPdirect/EPan0005.htm

My question with cloud seeding is are we in effect robbing Peter to pay Paul. We seed the clouds in the southwest which then reduces the rain in the central US? Seems there is some speculation that this is what happens but no one really knows for sure.

[Surferbeetle]

ODB,

Back in my younger days I used to hike near one of I.M. Pei's buildings where a bunch of big brain folks were asking the atmospheric questions that you are posing. Much later, during my ag engineering course I had to spend a fair amount of time figuring out the correct nozzle sizing for center pivot sprinkler systems and how to properly tilt fields in order to optimally distribute the water...its more complex than it looks and it pushed me hard in my spreadsheet modeling abilities. I do have a friend however, who was a supercomputer driver and who has worked on some atmospheric modeling issues; I will ask him what he thinks about Afghanistan when I see him next.

In the meantime this link on laser levelingof fields might be of interest and besides it makes me chuckle to think about both trying to fit one of these rigs into the back of Chinook and how it would be received when we landed.

Davidbfpo,

Thanks for the link from the Spectator, it was a good read. Oxfam has an interesting link that I ran across today

Oxfam America is working to increase the effectiveness of US foreign aid by placing the voices and priorities of poor people at the center of aid policy and practice. Through analytical and field research, we will bring out the hopes and concerns of intended beneficiaries, implementing partners, aid professionals, other donors, and host governments.

I have very much enjoyed working with the majority of the NGO's and other groups I bump into 'downrange'. There are lots of good ideas and dedicated people out there. Some of the older folks (and I am not as young as I used to be as my college age kids continually advise me...) are pretty wise and have been kind enough to show me a tip or two. I was in a chai bar in Mosul once and struck up a conversation with a gentleman who was easily 20 years my senior, still getting things done on the security side, and I greatly appreciated his insights.

Ken,

Thanks for the info. My library is pretty thin when it comes to CINC info. I have a single first hand account written by GEN Zinni/Tom Clancy/Tony Koltz entitled Battle Ready (ISBN 0-399-15176-1) which I go back to from time to time. Some of my friends down the street at the 3/325 did Provide Comfort which he covers in the book. USAID/DOS wise it's all FM's and experience. The CRS link was a good read. As a taxpayer I really like those CRS reports, we are getting our moneys worth on that one.

Regards,

Steve