Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences That Matter

[Bob's World]

Rex, your opinion is noted.

My meaning is that "all Muslims" are taught, as an integral part of their lives from childhood, that Islam is the final and correct religion, that others (guys like me, to keep it focused on just me) are ignorant, wrong, and in league with a "false" religion.

I don't think I have ever met a person of faith, be it Christian, Jewish, or Muslim who did not fit the description above. Which goes to my original point. Too many are too quick to make this all about religion. Certainly Islam is central to the lives of most of the people of the Middle East; but it is not Islam that drives young men to violence.

The majority of Shia populaces are not in states that have governments formed during the Cold War by western governments that shaped the politics of the region to deny this critical Cold War battlefield to the Soviets. The majority of Sunni populaces are in states that are.

I will, however, contend that there is one major Islamic factor at play that does not get much attention. Just as the information age that began with the invention of the printing press led to reformation of Christianity in Europe as it broke the chokehold that the Catholic Church had on information and knowledge (but it was political reform that really drove the wars of reformation that followed and led to the treaty of Westphalia); the current information age fueled by computers, satellite TV and cell phones is, I believe, having a similar impact on Islam. We in the west tend to focus on how the current upheavals in the Middle East affect our interests, we make it all about us. We probably also need to understand that a major religion that has been fairly static since inception is probably experiencing its own internal pressures as well.

Like I said, its complicated. We all need to keep an open mind and not just swallow what the "experts" tell us. I don't think I'm totally right, but I believe I am considering factors that many are not. I just put them out there for others to think about as well. Spending 7 months living, eating, working, playing, going to war with, the Egyptian Army was a very inlightening experience for me. I have tremendous respect for the Muslim culture and people; but also learned that we both misunderstand each other far more than we know.

[jmm99]

from BW
The majority of Shia populaces are not in states that have governments formed during the Cold War by western governments that shaped the politics of the region to deny this critical Cold War battlefield to the Soviets. The majority of Sunni populaces are in states that are.

We have from COL Lynch's report this snip (p.47 - see also Table 3, p.49):

Only five countries (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and Azerbaijan) have more self-identified Shi’a than Sunnis. Another ten states have Shi’a populations or diasporas numbering more than half a million and that hold
a politically important minority position. [81]

[81] In addition to the five Shi’a majority countries, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Turkey, India, Pakistan and Albania have Shi’a minority populations with significant numbers and political import. One should note that despite control by an Alawite, secular Shi’a leadership, Syria is a country with more Sunni than Shi’a.

Iran, Iraq and Lebanon were very much Cold War political battlegrounds, from the time of Kim Roosevelt on. Azerbaijan is independent because of the Cold War. I also fail to see the direct materiality of the Cold War to Lynch's thesis.

PS - COL Lynch, wherever you are. Please come on and explain your take to these other O-6s.

[Bob's World]

As I recall Iran and Lebannon self-determined prior to the end of the Cold War, and for all their current troubles, they do not have governments imposed by the West. Iraq had also managed to throw off Western imposed governance, but got invaded a few years back...if the government there can avoid the stigma of being considered a Western puppet, they have a chance.

[Ken White]

the cold war by many years. Go back to 1919 (in some cases thousands of years earlier...). The Ottomans were on the losing side and all their former Arab lands gained some form or other of independence. the British and French chopped up the area by drawing lines on a map -- diligently ignoring anyone who knew that Middle East -- and created a series of fault lines.

The USSR moved in smartly with Agitprop during the 1920s and proceeded for the next 70 or so years to foment hate and discontent (I suspect their successors are still at it...) all along those fault lines and they were successful beyond their wildest dreams. They played all the Arab psyche buttons; colonialism, neo-colonialism, sectarian differences; western disdain, all those and more. Today, there are a lot of little old guys watching BBC World News in St. Petersburg and chuckling while they sip their vodka.

They were far more successful in shaping the attitudes of the populace than the west was in shaping governments. We may have 'won' the cold war on an overall basis -- but they definitely won in the ME. It is perhaps noteworthy that, hard as they tried, they failed in the nation with the second largest Muslim population.

The Sunni / Shia divide is generally dormant unless agitators provoke one side or the other. Iran is Shia but its problems and attitudes stem more from dreams of Darius and Cyrus than they do from a desire for religious domination. Shia populations in the other nations all get along with each other barring deliberate provocation. The Iraqi problem is one of payback, most of the other nations are trying to adapt and defuse confrontations.

However, there are still agitators working zealously. Religion is not their motive power -- that would be political power with religious issues as cover.

I think Bob's world is correct on this score:

"...Certainly Islam is central to the lives of most of the people of the Middle East; but it is not Islam that drives young men to violence.

True, it is not -- but some are using Islam to justify and endorse violence and too many in Islam are tolerant of this perversion not least because the USSR was successful for many years in planting anti-western attitudes that will be around for many more years. Islam is not the driver but is accepting and even, in too many cases, approving of that violence.

In fairness, the west has not done a very good job of refuting those attitudes.

[jmm99]

from Ken
They played all the Arab psyche buttons; colonialism, neo-colonialism, sectarian differences; western disdain, all those and more. ....

They were far more successful in shaping the attitudes of the populace than the west was in shaping governments....

Strikes me that these Cold War themes were picked up by both Shia and Sunni as their geo-political arguments - to which, extreme religious positions were added, starting with Maududi.

[Ken White]

both sides learned from each other and, other than a very few, the west did not catch on to much of anything. The USSR; the Cheka / NKVD / MGB / MVD / KGB; were probably the best intel crew around. They were flexible and shrewd, adapted well to their environments -- something the Brits do fairly well and we do not do well.

I also strongly suspect that the extreme religious arguments are mostly -- not all -- in reality more cover for political maneuvering than deep faith. A detailed study of the life, politcal ploys and shenanigans of the Imam Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini can be illuminating in this regard. He was for the Shah before he was against him. He knew Kermit, Jr for instance...

[George L. Singleton]

I have tremendous respect for the Muslim culture and people; but also learned that we both misunderstand each other far more than we know.

Seven month is moder times in Egypt is a good exposure.

I did 18 months based in Pakistan but with TDYs to Kabul; Tehran; Dahran; and Adana. But this was a long while ago. My opinion as reflected in my series of published letters in the Karachi DAWN since 9/11, starting in Oct., 2001 is that things have gotten much, much worse than while I lived over there.

BUT, once we had the 1965 India-Pakisan War, former same age as me young Pakistani Foreign Office and Defense Ministry officials, who used to come eat, drink etc. at my staff house and at our staff beach house on the Arabian Sea, turned overnight anti-American, it was all our faulth. We then lost the US intel base lease in Peshawar (Badabar).

Then CENTO and SEATO died as far as Pakistan's membership and participation. Etc.

We still have many good Muslim friends today, here in the US who have family I know who go back and forth to Paksitan.

Later as only a weekender type reservist, purple suit, with USREDCOM, which then became SOCOM, I did "one" desert exercise (Egypt).

Immediately after time in Pakistan, late 1960s to early 1970s I was an International Banking Officer in Asia Section, old Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co, International Dept. We were then the 4th largest bank in the world...and I delt in a business sense with Pakistanis and Indians, as well as Afghanistan business interests still under the rule of the King in Kabul. But, most of our business was in volume with Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and with China at the time of our very first Pepsi Cola Nixon attempt to open China's business doors...while of course he was on his way to resigning the Presidency, as an aside.

By now I think you understand that I am describing a religion as a part of every Muslim's life so different that we as Westerners cannot fathom that everything they do, say or think is shaped and driven, literally, by their Islamic religion. What is also true is that not all Muslims are terrorists nor radicals, but as a "grouping" they are much less friendly that in years gone by.

Mass media enables spreading hate and terrorism, I agree, good point you make.

Let me close with a hard fact: We were at a first birthday party for a Paksitani born here in our home town, USA. Her father is a naturalized US citizen and the Mother is in process of being a naturalized US citizen. A "member" of this host couple's family told me he was very upset [this was not long ago] because some Pakistani teenagers here he employs at various mall stands...the youths were pointed out to me...had received and were circulating recruiting brochures for al Qaida. He was furious, but I asked him what he did about it, he said he took up all such pamplets he could find among his teenage boy employees and burned them in a sand-ash tray in the mall.

Will not drone on, just go home for author's conference and headed to the bed.

I am "famous" among business associates here for thinking and operating outside the box. I did this a great deal as Chief of Wargamming for USSOCOM (J4 & J5) and was sent on orders for two years, two weekends every month, to CINCLANT to head up an all services war plans team which updated the J4 component of the now old NATO War Plan. Ditto tours (short) on TDY active duty with HQFORSCOM, etc. Remember, I remained a full time US Civil Servant and this was my reserve sideline, I was not a Title 10 reservist. Retired from 6 years active and 25 years in the National Guard (TN Air Guard) and the Reserve, mainly "purple suit" JCS level reserve jobs. I don't know it all and expect someone will use this quote but humility on top of so much self appreciation is needed to level me off and out now.

Cheers.

[George L. Singleton]

From the Saturday, Feb. 21, 2009 NEW YORK TIMES, of interest on this thread:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/wa..._r=1&th&emc=th

If any of you guys want to chat off line, I have one private suggestion/observation regarding a tribe in NWFP of Pakistan/and in Afghanistan, same tribe by name, which "might" address my reply to Sunni vs. Shia exploitable differences...my reply being you might rather consider trying to exploit among and between Sunnis tribal fueds.

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.islamfortoday.com/shia.htm

If one doesn't get lost in the list of holy names at end of this article, you can see some basic differences between and among Sunni vs. Shia Muslims.

Please note that this site, printed from 2007 I believe, suggests that Shia Muslims are more prone to martydom vs. Sunni Muslims. One of you guys brought out this point last night I believe?

Statistically, if correct, this article also suggests that of the world's Muslims around 15% are Shia.

In Pakistan, the northern areas are majority Sunni, whereas the ruling groupings in Punjab and Sindh Provinces in the middle and south of Pakistan are Shia. Current President of Pakistan is Shia, whereas the Taliban and al Qaida are Sunnis.

[Bob's World]

Certainly understanding the differences is key, but so many factors contribute to the mix.

For example, the majority of suicide bombers in Iraq are Saudi Sunnis. I have heard, and based on my experience in the PACOM AOR believe, that when Indonesian Sunnis who arrived in Iraq were expected to also be suicide bombers they told their AQ handlers to F off and went home. Asian muslims don't blow themselves up. Many seem to think that this is a muslim tactic, but it is actually a middle eastern Muslim tactic, and we need to consider that nuance carefully.

Speaking of bad assumptions made early in the GWOT that have been holding back the overall effectiveness of our operations, I need to take a few minutes to start a new thread on that line. I believe there are several

[George L. Singleton]

Talking to newsmen on Friday, the Prime Minister said the provincial government held talks with the Jirga for restoration of peace and as some of the areas falls in the jurisdiction of the federal government, the president's consent is required to enforce the Shariah System there. Regarding the Western opposition to the agreement, he said there was nothing against the constitution of Pakistan and Islam in this agreement. He pointed out that the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) could not allow any thing to happen in this country which was repugnant to Islam.

See complete Peshawar FRONTIER POST news article (from Saturday, Feb. 21, 2009 edition) from which this quite comes:

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News....at=ts&nid=4030

Always remember that both Pakistan and Afghanistan are Islamic Republics, religious nations, based on the Quaran, whose interpretations of course differ between and among Sunnis and Shias.

The historic and current tense fact that the leadership of Pakistan has been Shia while that of Afghanistan has been Sunni reflects to me "the classic divide" between these two arms of Islam.

Would be glad to have others deal in statistics or data to challenge some "facts" I have been reading on the Internet which "assert" that Shia are a minority in and of Pakistan. My past (ancient) experience and modern day readings suggest that nationwide inside Pakistan Sunni and Shia are about equal in numbers.

Factually documented comments on this "religious population" census will be appreciated.

[Bob's World]

Wikipedia breaks it down 80/20:
The Religious breakup of the country is as follows:

Islam 173,000,000 (97%) (nearly 80% are Sunni Muslims and 20% are Shi'a Muslims).
Hinduism 3,200,000 (1.85%)
Christianity 2,800,000 (1.6%)
Sikhs Around 20,000 (0.04%)

Concentration and location is more important than percentage though. For example, it is less than 5% of the Thai populace that is Muslim, but they are concentrated on the Malay border where I believe they are also the majority.

This is why an issue like abortion where the stake holders are mixed across the country is nowhere near as dangerous as slavery, which also divided the opponents by region.

If you really want to look for potential Shia-Sunni issues in Pakistan, look for a map that shows density by location. But even then be sure to overlay tribal and colonial history, etc so that one does not jump to conclusions that appear logical, but that just aren't true. (Example: You go to an NBA game and see that all of the players are black and then determine that all blacks play basketball). My example may seem rediculous, but I've seen equally rediculous conclusions made about Muslims.

[jmm99]

from George

Please note that this site, printed from 2007 I believe, suggests that Shia Muslims are more prone to martydom vs. Sunni Muslims. One of you guys brought out this point last night I believe?

I'll enter a not guilty plea for everyone - no prior reference to martyrdom in this thread before above.

Seriously, martyrdom (in the traditional sense) is quite different from suicide bombing - in my view, which follows as IMO for the next two paragraphs:

Martyrdom means I am willing to die at the hands of another for my faith. In its highest form (non-violent resistence by the martyr), it is the ultimate expression of passive resistence - also the Golden Ticket to Salvation ("baptism by blood").

Suicide bombing means I am willing to kill another at the assured sacrifice of my own life caused by my act. If my motive for killing the other guy is because I claim God wills me to do it, I would be guilty of a heresy in modern (as opposed to medieval) RC theology - whether I live or die. If I manage to kill myself, I am guilty of suicide (which modern RC theology tends to consider a form of insanity - some debate there).

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As BW points out, suicide bombing is not a generally-accepted Islamic legal-theological concept. Thus, Zawahiri was forced to write a long treatise "Jihad, Martyrdom and the Killing of Innocents" (in The Al Qaeda Reader) to justify that tactic, and others used by AQ.[*]

COL Lynch's report discusses both suicide bombings and martyrdom operations (e.g., pp.39-40, his refs are in footnotes 62 & 63):

A second common Islamist terror tactic meriting comment is that of suicide bombings. While neither unique nor exclusive to Islamist-inspired terrorism —the Tamil Tiger rebels of Sri Lanka, for example, have used suicide terror in their insurgency for many decades— Islamist terrorists have a well-earned reputation for extensive use of this chilling attack technique during the past twenty-five years. Indeed, Islamist suicide bombings have trended steadily upward since 1981. Hezbollah was the first to use suicide bombings as a tactic for Islamist terrorism beginning with attacks against U.S. and French targets in Beirut during 1983, ultimately carrying out at least thirty-six suicide attacks within Lebanon in the 1980s. The group continued to use the technique against Israel in the 1990s. Iran also made use of a variant of this tactic from 1982 through 1988, employing suicide combatants in waves during its grueling war against Iraq. Thus, it is clear that terrorism by Shi’a actors may feature suicide operations when the tactic is feasible. However, suicide operations by Shi’a terrorist groups in non-combat zones have been somewhat subdued over the past decade-and-a-half, and principally focused against Israel. [62]

At the same time, Sunni terrorism, and especially by Salafi-Jihadist groups, has featured “martyrdom operations” extensively since the early 1990s, and SalafiJihadis have garnered most attention for their widespread adoption of this particularly heart-wrenching form of terrorism over the past decade. [63]The trend is strong and growing more pronounced as expertise from in-combat zone operations in Iraq and Afghanistan is shared across the jihadi terror community. Nevertheless, when it comes to suicide terror operations against western targets in non-combat zones, policymakers should not be fooled by the recent profile of Sunni-inspired radicals. Shi’a terrorists are highly capable and deadly efficient in these kinds of operations as well. The good news is that much of the work done to combat terrorism overseas against one sect’s suicide terrorist operations should produce valuable defense against “martyrdom operations” conducted by the other.

In short, there are what I would consider to be "heretics" (as viewed from an RC theological standpoint) in some Shia and Sunni groups.

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[*] Zawahiri makes a good (but to me unconvincing) legal argument for “martyrdom operations”. The various Islamic discourses are, of course, both legal and theological (since there is no distinction between the two in Islam - a theonomy, in Paul Tillich's terms, "God's law"). As such, the Islamic writings are, to me, another aspect of comparative law.

[jmm99]

from BW
If you really want to look for potential Shia-Sunni issues in Pakistan, look for a map that shows density by location. But even then be sure to overlay tribal and colonial history, etc ...

COL Lynch's report has very general stats for the nations he lists at p.47 - see Table 3, p.49. It would seem to me that a more-detailed breakdown within countries would be useful - although complex. E.g., besides Shia and Sunni, we also have Sufists - as I understand it, that take on Islam cuts across both the Shia and Sunni communities.

BTW: George - I've been tardy in not agreeing with you that, so far as Pashtuns are concerned, our primary focus should be on how they chose to distinguish themselves. COL Lynch's report is more applicable to the Fertile Crescent and the Oil Lands to its south.