Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences That Matter

[jmm99]

between two O-6s, are we not moving off the mark of the thesis presented in the OP ?

That is, are there significant differences, which can be used to our (US) advantage, in the approaches taken by Sunni and Shia groups in developing strategy, operations and tactics used in the armed conflicts in which they have been and are now engaged ?

The Executive Summary of the CTC report seems to think so (I reformatted to separate the bullet points):

There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi’a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations, especially in light of steadily escalating tensions with Iran.

First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi’a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid‐to‐high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open‐ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi’a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives.

Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi’a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi’a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state‐run businesses.

Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi‐Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities.

Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi’a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill.

Fifth, Shi’a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high‐casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi‐Jihadist variant.

Finally, each sect’s extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently. The Sunni approach to information management tends to feature doctrine and resources geared to take immediate credit and widely amplify a terrorist event. Shi’a terrorists, while not averse to normal media publicity and amplification, by and large take a much lower‐key approach.

Importantly, this study does not argue or imply that violence perpetrated by Sunni or Shi’a extremist groups is carried out for reasons that are inherent to one or the other tradition of Islam. There is no evidence sought or identified in this work contending that historical patterns of terrorist attacks by organizations identifying themselves as Shi’a, for example, are pre‐determined by Shi’a theology or philosophy. What this study does suggest, however, is that those Shi’a organizations that have conducted terrorism in non‐combat zones display several preferred operational patterns that contrast markedly from their Sunni counterparts.

The general thesis of this report is similar to the arguments advanced by Bob Baer in The Devil We Know - several dozen reviews at the Amazon page.

PS - George: Your six points are something you and I could spend much time into the wee hours of the morning; but, for the life of me, I have a hard time seeing how they are directly material to the thesis of the CTC report.

[George L. Singleton]

JMM

Your presentation is good until you reach your conclusions and question my thesis.

My thesis (remains) that all of Islam, regardless of which camp, is driven and based on a total way of life wherein Islam guides and directs the philosophy and actions of the actors (Muslims).

I respect your and everyone else's scholarship, but have myself relied on dialogue directly for the past two years on a variety of website and interpersonal e-mails with those who are younger (but some are older) Sunni and Shia Muslims. The interpersonal e-mails are not allowed on this website but I have started in recent weeks to share "some" of the Hujra Online comments, but far from all of them.

Thus, I would agree that we are coming from two different "data bases" and mine is from modern day (but not modern to me as individuals in many cases) Muslims who tolerate and enable both (my opinion) their cultural kinsmen, fellow Pukhtuns [fellow Sunnis), who people the Taliban terrorist groups. Al Qaida (Sunnis) are largely Arabs and not "trusted" by the non-Taliban Pukhtuns, on the other hand.

Do appreciate your very courteous and carefully laid out logic, and it went well with me...until your conclusion.

You and I, or "we Westerners" are very able to separate our religion from our politics in our style of thinking. The Muslims, of all stripes, are not so enabled nor brought up that way, at all, unfortunately, in my view, but who said my views should or do run the way the rest of mankind thinks and reasons?

[Rex Brynen]

You and I, or "we Westerners" are very able to separate our religion from our politics in our style of thinking. The Muslims, of all stripes, are not so enabled nor brought up that way, at all, unfortunately, in my view, but who said my views should or do run the way the rest of mankind thinks and reasons?

I certainly wouldn't draw such a generalization about all "Muslims" like this...

[George L. Singleton]

Rex, your opinion is noted.

My meaning is that "all Muslims" are taught, as an integral part of their lives from childhood, that Islam is the final and correct religion, that others (guys like me, to keep it focused on just me) are ignorant, wrong, and in league with a "false" religion.

On the topic of how to use or drive wedges between Sunnis and Shias, I wouldn't go there in the context of either Pakistan nor Afghanistan.

REASON: The Shia minority in Northern Paksitan and in Afghanistan are routinely attacked, murdered, blow up, whatever, these days just because "they are Shia." They don't have a share in the power structure effectively speaking in Pakistan (Northern parts is my focus) nor in Afghanistan, despite artificial quotes NATO/US are using in training up officers, police, civilian civil service native to Afghanistan.

My "George know it all" opinion is you would do well to be focusing and studying tribal vendettas among and between the Sunni Pukhtuns, pure and simple.

Taking my wife out for an early dinner to then attend our local SOUTHERN VOICES authors conference which starts tonight and runs through this weekend here.

I would encourage some of you to go on and join to have full access, including posting rights on Global Hujra Online, which is a part of KhyberWatch.com, similiar to the structure of SWJ and it's various parts. The you can have direct dialogue and conversations very candidly.

One observation: KhyberWatch.com and Global Hujra Online are Pukthun nationalist sites, focused on promoting ethnic pride, identity, and pehaps future efforts at a nation of Pukhtuns, in violation of the current Durland Line structure that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan.

I'm sure you can get on (I am tired of being the only non-Muslim member of Global Hujra Online) with all the brain and word power and real world younger men and women's experience evident here on SWJ.

Yes, "all" of anybody of anything is a glittering generality, but with Islam is comes closer to the truth than with any other grouping I have ever known. My views again here.

[Bob's World]

Rex, your opinion is noted.

My meaning is that "all Muslims" are taught, as an integral part of their lives from childhood, that Islam is the final and correct religion, that others (guys like me, to keep it focused on just me) are ignorant, wrong, and in league with a "false" religion.

I don't think I have ever met a person of faith, be it Christian, Jewish, or Muslim who did not fit the description above. Which goes to my original point. Too many are too quick to make this all about religion. Certainly Islam is central to the lives of most of the people of the Middle East; but it is not Islam that drives young men to violence.

The majority of Shia populaces are not in states that have governments formed during the Cold War by western governments that shaped the politics of the region to deny this critical Cold War battlefield to the Soviets. The majority of Sunni populaces are in states that are.

I will, however, contend that there is one major Islamic factor at play that does not get much attention. Just as the information age that began with the invention of the printing press led to reformation of Christianity in Europe as it broke the chokehold that the Catholic Church had on information and knowledge (but it was political reform that really drove the wars of reformation that followed and led to the treaty of Westphalia); the current information age fueled by computers, satellite TV and cell phones is, I believe, having a similar impact on Islam. We in the west tend to focus on how the current upheavals in the Middle East affect our interests, we make it all about us. We probably also need to understand that a major religion that has been fairly static since inception is probably experiencing its own internal pressures as well.

Like I said, its complicated. We all need to keep an open mind and not just swallow what the "experts" tell us. I don't think I'm totally right, but I believe I am considering factors that many are not. I just put them out there for others to think about as well. Spending 7 months living, eating, working, playing, going to war with, the Egyptian Army was a very inlightening experience for me. I have tremendous respect for the Muslim culture and people; but also learned that we both misunderstand each other far more than we know.

[jmm99]

from BW
The majority of Shia populaces are not in states that have governments formed during the Cold War by western governments that shaped the politics of the region to deny this critical Cold War battlefield to the Soviets. The majority of Sunni populaces are in states that are.

We have from COL Lynch's report this snip (p.47 - see also Table 3, p.49):

Only five countries (Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain and Azerbaijan) have more self-identified Shi’a than Sunnis. Another ten states have Shi’a populations or diasporas numbering more than half a million and that hold
a politically important minority position. [81]

[81] In addition to the five Shi’a majority countries, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Turkey, India, Pakistan and Albania have Shi’a minority populations with significant numbers and political import. One should note that despite control by an Alawite, secular Shi’a leadership, Syria is a country with more Sunni than Shi’a.

Iran, Iraq and Lebanon were very much Cold War political battlegrounds, from the time of Kim Roosevelt on. Azerbaijan is independent because of the Cold War. I also fail to see the direct materiality of the Cold War to Lynch's thesis.

PS - COL Lynch, wherever you are. Please come on and explain your take to these other O-6s.

[Bob's World]

As I recall Iran and Lebannon self-determined prior to the end of the Cold War, and for all their current troubles, they do not have governments imposed by the West. Iraq had also managed to throw off Western imposed governance, but got invaded a few years back...if the government there can avoid the stigma of being considered a Western puppet, they have a chance.

[George L. Singleton]

I have tremendous respect for the Muslim culture and people; but also learned that we both misunderstand each other far more than we know.

Seven month is moder times in Egypt is a good exposure.

I did 18 months based in Pakistan but with TDYs to Kabul; Tehran; Dahran; and Adana. But this was a long while ago. My opinion as reflected in my series of published letters in the Karachi DAWN since 9/11, starting in Oct., 2001 is that things have gotten much, much worse than while I lived over there.

BUT, once we had the 1965 India-Pakisan War, former same age as me young Pakistani Foreign Office and Defense Ministry officials, who used to come eat, drink etc. at my staff house and at our staff beach house on the Arabian Sea, turned overnight anti-American, it was all our faulth. We then lost the US intel base lease in Peshawar (Badabar).

Then CENTO and SEATO died as far as Pakistan's membership and participation. Etc.

We still have many good Muslim friends today, here in the US who have family I know who go back and forth to Paksitan.

Later as only a weekender type reservist, purple suit, with USREDCOM, which then became SOCOM, I did "one" desert exercise (Egypt).

Immediately after time in Pakistan, late 1960s to early 1970s I was an International Banking Officer in Asia Section, old Manufacturers Hanover Trust Co, International Dept. We were then the 4th largest bank in the world...and I delt in a business sense with Pakistanis and Indians, as well as Afghanistan business interests still under the rule of the King in Kabul. But, most of our business was in volume with Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and with China at the time of our very first Pepsi Cola Nixon attempt to open China's business doors...while of course he was on his way to resigning the Presidency, as an aside.

By now I think you understand that I am describing a religion as a part of every Muslim's life so different that we as Westerners cannot fathom that everything they do, say or think is shaped and driven, literally, by their Islamic religion. What is also true is that not all Muslims are terrorists nor radicals, but as a "grouping" they are much less friendly that in years gone by.

Mass media enables spreading hate and terrorism, I agree, good point you make.

Let me close with a hard fact: We were at a first birthday party for a Paksitani born here in our home town, USA. Her father is a naturalized US citizen and the Mother is in process of being a naturalized US citizen. A "member" of this host couple's family told me he was very upset [this was not long ago] because some Pakistani teenagers here he employs at various mall stands...the youths were pointed out to me...had received and were circulating recruiting brochures for al Qaida. He was furious, but I asked him what he did about it, he said he took up all such pamplets he could find among his teenage boy employees and burned them in a sand-ash tray in the mall.

Will not drone on, just go home for author's conference and headed to the bed.

I am "famous" among business associates here for thinking and operating outside the box. I did this a great deal as Chief of Wargamming for USSOCOM (J4 & J5) and was sent on orders for two years, two weekends every month, to CINCLANT to head up an all services war plans team which updated the J4 component of the now old NATO War Plan. Ditto tours (short) on TDY active duty with HQFORSCOM, etc. Remember, I remained a full time US Civil Servant and this was my reserve sideline, I was not a Title 10 reservist. Retired from 6 years active and 25 years in the National Guard (TN Air Guard) and the Reserve, mainly "purple suit" JCS level reserve jobs. I don't know it all and expect someone will use this quote but humility on top of so much self appreciation is needed to level me off and out now.

Cheers.

[George L. Singleton]

From the Saturday, Feb. 21, 2009 NEW YORK TIMES, of interest on this thread:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/21/wa..._r=1&th&emc=th

If any of you guys want to chat off line, I have one private suggestion/observation regarding a tribe in NWFP of Pakistan/and in Afghanistan, same tribe by name, which "might" address my reply to Sunni vs. Shia exploitable differences...my reply being you might rather consider trying to exploit among and between Sunnis tribal fueds.

[George L. Singleton]

http://www.islamfortoday.com/shia.htm

If one doesn't get lost in the list of holy names at end of this article, you can see some basic differences between and among Sunni vs. Shia Muslims.

Please note that this site, printed from 2007 I believe, suggests that Shia Muslims are more prone to martydom vs. Sunni Muslims. One of you guys brought out this point last night I believe?

Statistically, if correct, this article also suggests that of the world's Muslims around 15% are Shia.

In Pakistan, the northern areas are majority Sunni, whereas the ruling groupings in Punjab and Sindh Provinces in the middle and south of Pakistan are Shia. Current President of Pakistan is Shia, whereas the Taliban and al Qaida are Sunnis.

[George L. Singleton]

Talking to newsmen on Friday, the Prime Minister said the provincial government held talks with the Jirga for restoration of peace and as some of the areas falls in the jurisdiction of the federal government, the president's consent is required to enforce the Shariah System there. Regarding the Western opposition to the agreement, he said there was nothing against the constitution of Pakistan and Islam in this agreement. He pointed out that the Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) could not allow any thing to happen in this country which was repugnant to Islam.

See complete Peshawar FRONTIER POST news article (from Saturday, Feb. 21, 2009 edition) from which this quite comes:

http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News....at=ts&nid=4030

Always remember that both Pakistan and Afghanistan are Islamic Republics, religious nations, based on the Quaran, whose interpretations of course differ between and among Sunnis and Shias.

The historic and current tense fact that the leadership of Pakistan has been Shia while that of Afghanistan has been Sunni reflects to me "the classic divide" between these two arms of Islam.

Would be glad to have others deal in statistics or data to challenge some "facts" I have been reading on the Internet which "assert" that Shia are a minority in and of Pakistan. My past (ancient) experience and modern day readings suggest that nationwide inside Pakistan Sunni and Shia are about equal in numbers.

Factually documented comments on this "religious population" census will be appreciated.