Sunni and Shi'a Terrorism: Differences That Matter

[Bob's World]

Personally, I think everyone can set their Qurans down and instead pick up some histories of western engagement in the Middle East and North Africa; and particularly those that focus on the Cold War era.

The issues driving violence in Iran, Lebannon, and linked to Palestine are largely Nationalist driven. Iran is largely Shia and feels (reasonably) that they are being deined opportunity to achieve their full potential as a Nation.

The Sunni populaces are largely in states that have goverments that were either established, sustained, or at least widely supported, by Western influences during the Cold War. The issues driving violence out of these populaces are not Nationalist in nature, but are instead largely populace driven; as populaces seek the opportunity provided by the end of the Cold War (catalyst), fueled by globalization (the great wild card and accelerant of change) to emerge from under Western influence and seek self-determination.

This has very little to do with religion, and a whole lot to do with the governmental situation in the states these populaces reside.

A quick look at the break down of where the foreign fighters in Iraq come from bears this out. First, they are a tiny minority of the fighers; and second they largely are Sunni's who come from states allied with the West. If you believe that Phase one to a successful insurgency at home is to break the support of the US/West to your home governance, you go to where the US is to try to motivate them to withdraw. Thus the shift of Foreign fighters back to Afghanistan as the US shifts there as well. Iraq is not the issue for them, wearing out the U.S. is.

Similarly, if you are, say Saudi Arabia, and not particularly wanting a Shia dominated democracy (strike one and two in their eyes) on your Northern border, it is reasonable that they might not try too hard to stop the flow of their own insurgent populace from leaving town to take their show on the road to Iraq. That same Saudi government is also very interested in keeping Iran in check. That seems to explain a lot about why they do so little to help resolve the Palestinian issue...if that issue continues to fester, Iran stays plugged in, and the US stays focused on Iran as the bad guy. Looked at in this light the instability between Isreal and Pasetine and Lebannon is very good for the Saudi Royals as it helps them keep the Iranians in check.

When it comes to intrigue, Americans are WAY out of their league compared to the masters of intrigue that run Middle Eastern governments. Not everything is what it seems.

[George L. Singleton]

Bob, indeed your Quaker roots do heavily influence your views. Quakers are good people and if we could bottle your peace and goodwill nature and inject it into the terrorists we could perhaps get somewhere.

But Islam as interpreted/misinterpreted by Sunni vs. Shia groups all over South Asia is the breath and existance of all the people there, just as you admit to being influenced by your Quaker roots.

Islam as interpreted by the line of Ayatollas in Iran drove out the Shah, who of course was pro-West, for example. The Cold War made strange bedfellows.

The Shah's father was pro-Nazi and the Allies removed him from office circa 1942/43, and his son, the last Shah of Iran who abdicated in 1980, took his place.

Saudi Arabia's influence in the Muslim/Middle Eastern world is a function of (1) having the Islamic major holy places, the site of the Haj for all Muslims of all strikes, within it's borders and (2) the world price of oil...which as it erodes is eroding the power and influence of the Saudi Royal family.

If you want to understand the terrorists modus operandi (my view, of course), you have the camp which wants a restoration of the caliphate, which is 100% Islamic religion driven. Sime clearly want to revive the old Ottoman Empire...to be headed by a religious cleric as Caliph.

Not to drone on, "nationalism" is a Western term as used by you here. When you are dealing with hundreds of millions of illiterate people whose only means of knowing what is happening in their own nations, let alone worldwide, is a battery operated radio or TV, you are not dealing with people who are about nationhood nor seeking democracy. They are merely "getting by" and sustained by whichever version of Islam is being used to manipulate them.

However, your adroit answer is appreciated but I would have liked the points I questioned answered instead of evaded, but that is your right, of course.

[Bob's World]

Good points all, and certainly the majority western perspective. I don't have time to give you fair comment now, but will, as this is critical to shaping proper engagement. Clearly what we are doing now does not work, and it is based, by the way, on the majority position that you convey very well.

[jmm99]

between two O-6s, are we not moving off the mark of the thesis presented in the OP ?

That is, are there significant differences, which can be used to our (US) advantage, in the approaches taken by Sunni and Shia groups in developing strategy, operations and tactics used in the armed conflicts in which they have been and are now engaged ?

The Executive Summary of the CTC report seems to think so (I reformatted to separate the bullet points):

There are significant and little appreciated differences in the trajectory of Sunni extremist terrorism and that of Shi’a extremism. The differences exist across six key areas that impact American policy considerations, especially in light of steadily escalating tensions with Iran.

First and foremost, Sunni radicals and Shi’a extremists differ in the overall approach and main objectives for their use of terror. The former tend to operate in a continuous, mid‐to‐high intensity manner, seeing war against infidels and apostates as a perennial condition featuring overlapping waves. Outside of an ongoing and seemingly open‐ended campaign against Israel, terrorist attacks by Shi’a groups have by and large featured discrete terror campaigns tethered to state and organizational objectives.

Second, Sunni terrorists and Shi’a extremists manifest different patterns for recruiting terrorist operatives and developing terrorist missions. Shi’a terrorists, unlike their Sunni counterparts, enjoy direct state support and for that reason are far more likely to originate from Iranian embassies, consulates and state‐run businesses.

Third, despite holding a minority viewpoint within the wider Sunni Islamic community, Sunni extremists, especially Salafi‐Jihadis, rely more extensively on the support of their coreligionist expatriate communities in facilitating terrorist activities.

Fourth, while employing similar tactics and methods, Shi’a terrorist groups have shown a much greater propensity to kidnap innocents to barter, while Sunni extremists more frequently abduct to kill.

Fifth, Shi’a terror groups exhibit a much higher incidence of targeted assassinations for specific political gain, rather than the high‐casualty killings featured in Sunni terrorism, and particularly of the Salafi‐Jihadist variant.

Finally, each sect’s extremists manage publicity and propaganda differently. The Sunni approach to information management tends to feature doctrine and resources geared to take immediate credit and widely amplify a terrorist event. Shi’a terrorists, while not averse to normal media publicity and amplification, by and large take a much lower‐key approach.

Importantly, this study does not argue or imply that violence perpetrated by Sunni or Shi’a extremist groups is carried out for reasons that are inherent to one or the other tradition of Islam. There is no evidence sought or identified in this work contending that historical patterns of terrorist attacks by organizations identifying themselves as Shi’a, for example, are pre‐determined by Shi’a theology or philosophy. What this study does suggest, however, is that those Shi’a organizations that have conducted terrorism in non‐combat zones display several preferred operational patterns that contrast markedly from their Sunni counterparts.

The general thesis of this report is similar to the arguments advanced by Bob Baer in The Devil We Know - several dozen reviews at the Amazon page.

PS - George: Your six points are something you and I could spend much time into the wee hours of the morning; but, for the life of me, I have a hard time seeing how they are directly material to the thesis of the CTC report.

[George L. Singleton]

JMM

Your presentation is good until you reach your conclusions and question my thesis.

My thesis (remains) that all of Islam, regardless of which camp, is driven and based on a total way of life wherein Islam guides and directs the philosophy and actions of the actors (Muslims).

I respect your and everyone else's scholarship, but have myself relied on dialogue directly for the past two years on a variety of website and interpersonal e-mails with those who are younger (but some are older) Sunni and Shia Muslims. The interpersonal e-mails are not allowed on this website but I have started in recent weeks to share "some" of the Hujra Online comments, but far from all of them.

Thus, I would agree that we are coming from two different "data bases" and mine is from modern day (but not modern to me as individuals in many cases) Muslims who tolerate and enable both (my opinion) their cultural kinsmen, fellow Pukhtuns [fellow Sunnis), who people the Taliban terrorist groups. Al Qaida (Sunnis) are largely Arabs and not "trusted" by the non-Taliban Pukhtuns, on the other hand.

Do appreciate your very courteous and carefully laid out logic, and it went well with me...until your conclusion.

You and I, or "we Westerners" are very able to separate our religion from our politics in our style of thinking. The Muslims, of all stripes, are not so enabled nor brought up that way, at all, unfortunately, in my view, but who said my views should or do run the way the rest of mankind thinks and reasons?

[Rex Brynen]

You and I, or "we Westerners" are very able to separate our religion from our politics in our style of thinking. The Muslims, of all stripes, are not so enabled nor brought up that way, at all, unfortunately, in my view, but who said my views should or do run the way the rest of mankind thinks and reasons?

I certainly wouldn't draw such a generalization about all "Muslims" like this...

[George L. Singleton]

Rex, your opinion is noted.

My meaning is that "all Muslims" are taught, as an integral part of their lives from childhood, that Islam is the final and correct religion, that others (guys like me, to keep it focused on just me) are ignorant, wrong, and in league with a "false" religion.

On the topic of how to use or drive wedges between Sunnis and Shias, I wouldn't go there in the context of either Pakistan nor Afghanistan.

REASON: The Shia minority in Northern Paksitan and in Afghanistan are routinely attacked, murdered, blow up, whatever, these days just because "they are Shia." They don't have a share in the power structure effectively speaking in Pakistan (Northern parts is my focus) nor in Afghanistan, despite artificial quotes NATO/US are using in training up officers, police, civilian civil service native to Afghanistan.

My "George know it all" opinion is you would do well to be focusing and studying tribal vendettas among and between the Sunni Pukhtuns, pure and simple.

Taking my wife out for an early dinner to then attend our local SOUTHERN VOICES authors conference which starts tonight and runs through this weekend here.

I would encourage some of you to go on and join to have full access, including posting rights on Global Hujra Online, which is a part of KhyberWatch.com, similiar to the structure of SWJ and it's various parts. The you can have direct dialogue and conversations very candidly.

One observation: KhyberWatch.com and Global Hujra Online are Pukthun nationalist sites, focused on promoting ethnic pride, identity, and pehaps future efforts at a nation of Pukhtuns, in violation of the current Durland Line structure that separates Afghanistan and Pakistan.

I'm sure you can get on (I am tired of being the only non-Muslim member of Global Hujra Online) with all the brain and word power and real world younger men and women's experience evident here on SWJ.

Yes, "all" of anybody of anything is a glittering generality, but with Islam is comes closer to the truth than with any other grouping I have ever known. My views again here.